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Civics & Democracy

Control Of The House Is Still Up In The Air. Here's Where Things Stand

Stacy of red white and blue "I voted" stickers
"I Voted' stickers in multiple languages at a Los Angeles polling place.
(Robyn Beck
AFP via Getty Images)
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As votes continue to trickle in, Republicans are still on track for a narrow majority in the House, but it would likely be a much smaller one than they were hoping for — and would make legislating difficult.

There are still 19 uncalled races; all except two are in the West, with millions of votes left to count in California. That state traditionally takes a long time to count mail-in ballots, and this is commonplace for every recent election as it relates to House races. So it could still be days until control of the House is sorted out.

Democrats still have a long shot chance at a majority, but they would need multiple races where Republicans are currently leading to shift in their direction. That path got slightly harder overnight, as one race where they were leading has now shifted toward Republicans. (More on that path below.)

Here's where things stand, by the numbers (as of Monday, 5:43 a.m. ET):

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  • At this point, Republicans lead 212-204. (218 is needed for a majority.) So Republicans need to win 6 of the 19 uncalled races for House control, or 32%.
  • If current leads hold, Republicans would wind up with a 222-213 majority. That would mean Republicans could only lose four members of their conference to pass legislation.
  • It's also possible that that number shrinks. Keep an eye on the 13th Congressional District in California, for example, where the Republican currently holds an 84-vote lead with just 61% of the vote in. (A Democratic pickup there there would give Republicans a 221-214 majority.)
  • Current net pickups: R+8. They have flipped 15 competitive seats to Democrats' 7, according to the Associated Press, which makes calls for NPR. (Republicans needed a net gain of 5 pickups to take control this cycle.)
  • Where they're leading: Republicans currently have flipped (15) or are winning (two) in 17 seats. Democrats have flipped (seven) or are winning (one) in eight seats — for R+9.
  • Estimated Republican pick up: 7 to 11 seats. That would give Republicans just a two- to six-seat majority.

Other races have slightly larger Republican leads at this point or have more votes in: CA-45, CA-27, NY-22, and CO-3. CO-3 is the seat held by Rep. Lauren Boebert. She's up by only 1,110 votes, but 99% of the vote is in, and she had been down, so things look like they're trending in her direction. But we will continue to monitor that one closely.

Sending messages

Republicans flipped OR-5 after an Associated Press call Sunday night. That was a seat previously held by Democratic Rep. Kurt Schrader, who was ousted in a primary earlier this year by a more progressive challenger. Schrader, a centrist, had President Biden's endorsement, and party leaders believed the seven-term congressman had a stronger chance of holding the seat.

The incoming Republican is Lori Chavez-DeRemer, former mayor of the town of Happy Valley, Oregon. She would be the first Latina to serve in Congress from Oregon. Another Latina, Democrat Andrea Salinas, is also locked in a tight battle for OR-6.

Isn't it ironic? Democrats picked up a seat in the 3rd Congressional District in Washington state, a district that had been held by a Republican, Jamie Herrera Beutler. But she voted for former President Trump's impeachment and was ousted by the right in the primary.

There's an irony in the fact that she was ousted because she voted to impeach Trump, and now a Democrat has taken over that seat. It's indicative of the broader message in this election.

  • Of the three dozen races rated as toss up by the Cook Political Report, Trump endorsed five — and all lost.

Note: Please keep in mind that these numbers are fluid and will change as votes continue to roll in. See the latest results here.

The Senate

Democrats 48, Independents 2, Republicans 49, Uncalled 2

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(The two independents caucus with the Democrats.)

With their wins the last two days in Arizona and Nevada, as well as their flip of the Pennsylvania seat, Democrats will retain the Senate.

It's a remarkable accomplishment for Democrats with a president whose approval rating has been below 50% for more than a year.

But base energy over the issue of abortion and a slew of Trump-backed candidates, who failed in purple states, proved to thwart a potential Republican Senate takeover.

What's left


This has been added to the Republican total even though the race is not settled yet, because both leading candidates are Republicans, so this will stay in GOP hands. The question is at this point: which Republican. Incumbent Lisa Murkowski (R) trails Kelly Tshibaka (R) by less than 2 percentage points, or just under 3,000 votes, with 80% in. If neither candidate gets above 50%, this goes to a ranked-choice re-tabulation Nov. 23. Murkowski would likely be favored to win that.

Democrats' long shot path to a majority

Democrats would need to see shifts in five races from Republican to Democrat. The most likely suspects to watch:

  1. CA-13 (R+84 votes, 61% in)
  2. AZ-1 (R+894 votes, 94% in - this shifted from a Democratic lead to a Republican one overnight)
  3. CA-41 (R+4k, 74% in)
  4. CA-22 (R+3k, 53% in)
  5. AZ-6 (R+2k, 89% in)


Incumbent Raphael Warnock (D) and Republican challenger Herschel Walker (R) are headed to a runoff because neither surpassed 50% on the ballot. Warnock missed the threshold by just under 23,000 votes.

What happened since Friday

Nevada: Democratic incumbent Catherine Cortez Masto took the lead after a batch of votes Saturday night were reported in Clark County. Shortly thereafter, she was declared the winner, clinching Senate control for Democrats. There are still votes to count in Nevada, which we will monitor, including 15,000 provisional votes from Clark County, which could also help Cortez Masto extend her lead.

Arizona: Democratic incumbent Mark Kelly's lead expanded by about 8,000 votes with the Friday night batch of about 80,000 votes out of Maricopa County. The race was called in his favor quickly after that, though vote counting continues there, and there is a closely watched governor's race, where Democrat Katie Hobbs currently leads Trump-backed Kari Lake, who has made unfounded allegations of fraud in the election.

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