2011 Los Angeles Dodgers Pitching Preview

Clayton Kershaw celebrates after a strikeout of Brendan Ryan in the 2009 NLDS game against the St. Louis Cardinals. AP Photo/Matt Sayles
By David Moran/Special to LAist
STARTING ROTATION

Clayton Kershaw: Let’s not forestall the simple truth: Clayton Kershaw is the best reason to watch the Dodgers. He’s what the old baseball heads call the Real Deal - that rare combination of age, passion, and, above all, ability. His arsenal: a whip-like, stinging fastball; a biting slider that’s gotten better every year; a billowing, sweeping curve; and a changeup that may see a little more action this year. If he can improve his control this year (as he has for the past two), walk fewer batters and limit his number of pitches, there’s nothing stopping him from being one of the absolute best pitchers in baseball. He was already fourth in strikeouts-per-nine-innings in the National League last year, held batters to a .211 batting average, and finished with an ERA under 3.00 for the second straight season. Oh, and he’s 22 years old. Clayton Kershaw is the best player on the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Chad Billingsley: Despite all the shortcomings, the divorce proceedings, the underachievements, and the distractions, the Dodgers have an almost unrivaled 1-2 punch of young pitchers at the top of their rotation. Kershaw is younger and probably more talented, but Chad Billingsley is only 26 and he’s no slouch. After two stellar campaigns in 2007 and 2008, he struggled in 2009, and the perception of his talent may have gotten buried beneath that season and last year’s quiet quality. 2010 was, in fact, a good season for Billingsley, though: his walks and HR allowed were down, he induced more ground balls, and he wound up with a respectable 3.57 ERA. With his ability to throw five different pitches, Billingsley has the potential to be a crafty, diverse pitcher. He still gives up more hits than is ideal, but on the whole, having a 26-year old with Billingsley’s talent as your number two starter ought to be sweet music to any Dodger fan’s ears.

Ted Lilly: For the first 25 days of his Dodgers career, Ted Lilly was a revelation. Traded over from the Cubs on July 31, Lilly went 5-0 in his first five starts, with 28 strikeouts, only five walks, and a measly seven runs allowed. Of course, a rough patch followed (four consecutive losses), and some of the luster dimmed from his shimmering Dodger beginnings. Still, Lilly is the kind of veteran pitcher that rounds out a pitching staff nicely. For one thing, he’ll preserve the bullpen, having pitched at least 175 innings all but one of the past seven years. He rarely gets shelled - he allowed more than four runs only six times out of 30 starts last year. Perhaps best of all, he has excellent control - his 2.04 walks per nine innings rate was second best in the National League. He’s not particularly flashy, and he may not get a lot of acclaim, but Ted Lilly will be a solid a part of the Dodgers rotation.

Hiroki Kuroda: Kuroda’s career with the Dodgers has had its ups and downs, to put it generously. 2008, His first year in the Major Leagues after coming over from Japan, was generally a success - he threw two complete game shutouts, and performed well in the playoffs, though he was injured for a time in the middle of the season. 2009, when he was the opening day starter, was mostly a mess. He missed the first two months of the season on the DL and suffered an embarrassing loss in the playoffs. 2010 was the first season that he didn’t pay a visit to his old friend the disabled list, and as a result it was probably his best. In one of the few bright spots for Dodgers fans after the All-Star break, he took a no-hitter into the 8th inning against the wicked Phillies, which maybe gives hope to the faithful in blue. Like Lilly, Kuroda has perfected his ability to stay within the strike zone, posting a BB/9 rate of 2.20 in 2010, just behind Lilly and good for fifth best in the NL. He’s had three years of posting an ERA in the mid-3.00 range, and there’s no sign of that changing. Your classic “if-he-can-only-stay-healthy” case.

Jon Garland: I know, it’s confusing. Garland was traded to the Dodgers at the end of August, 2009 and made six starts with the club that year, going 3-2 with a 2.72 ERA and 26 strikeouts. He was a free agent at year’s end however, and wound up signing a one-year with the division rival Padres. And now…well, now he’s back, having signed another one-year deal, this time with the Dodgers. Though this is his 12th year in the big leagues and his fifth different team, he’s actually only 31 years old, which makes him younger than both Lilly and Kuroda. He, too, is an innings-eater, having pitched more than 190 innings every year since 2002. And as last year’s Dodger team proved, having even average pitchers occupy a spot in the rotation is far more desirable than throwing chum like Charlie Haeger to the sharks of the major leagues. Garland has never really been a great pitcher, but last year’s results are somewhat intriguing - he threw more breaking balls than at any time in his career, gave up fewer hits in the process, and wound up with the lowest ERA of his career. It may turn out to be a minor plot point, but it will be interesting to see if any or all of those trends continue this year in Chavez Ravine.

Notes on the Bullpen:

It has yet to be determined if former flame-thrower Jonathan Broxton still has the heebie-jeebies; with Manager Mattingly having proclaimed him the closer back in October, it seems like we’ll find out quickly…In case you’re worried about Broxton’s diagnosis, keep in mind that Hong-Chih Kuo< had the lowest ERA of any reliever in baseball last year, and held opposing batters to an also-MLB-best .138 batting average. There, that should help you sleep…Righty middle-reliever Matt Guerrier signed a 3-year, $12 million deal with the Dodgers in the offseason. Let’s just say we should hope that he gives Kuo a run for his money if we want that one to pay off…John Ely and Vincente Padilla should provide the type of long-appearance/fill-in start insurance that you hope won’t be necessary. Of course, it would be a mini-tragedy if there weren’t enough of Padilla’s famed “soap bubble” pitches. Gotta love the guy…Ronald Belisario has reportedly pitched well in winter ball this offseason; something closer along the lines of his surprising 2009 season (2.04 ERA, 8.15 K/9 would be welcome…Kenley Jansen only pitched in 27 major league innings last year, but they were doozies - he had 41 strikeouts in that short span, and only let in two earned runs. Sign me up for a full year, please…It’s hard to say anything particularly good or bad about Carlos Monasterios, so I’ll just say this: he should probably try to strike out more batters, and give up fewer home runs. I bet he already knew that, though…Ramon Troncoso had some problems with the long ball himself last year, at one point giving up four dingers in three days. That led to a mid-season send-down, but all’s well that ends well - he only gave up one long ball after he rejoined the club in August…Scott Elbert and Ron Mahay appear to be your two “I guess we better have some extra lefties besides injury-prone Kuo” candidates for the season. No comment here…Blake Hawksworth came over in exchange for Ryan Theriot in the offseason. He used to be the number one prospect in the St. Louis Cardinals’ farm system, but we’ll see if that’s still appropriate after seven years and a few injuries…Jon Link - the missing link? Probably not.