Now here's something I haven't had a chance to write in some time: The following storms could cause mudslides across Southern California because we've had too much rain in recent months.
"Usually what you need is about 10 inches of rain over the course of the winter followed by an intense storm. And that's when you get into the range when you can have landslides anywhere," said Jason Kean, research hydrologist with the U.S. Geological Survey landslide hazards program.
Steeper, mountainous areas prone to debris flows, like Ojai, have seen dozens of inches of rain so far this winter, so any storm that brings a significant amount of precipitation over a short period could very well have issues. The real number to look out for here is a 1/4 inch of rain per hour, the general threshold where debris flows become a concern.
"That doesn't mean everything's going to go when you get that. But those are the conditions we worry about and those rates are definitely on the table for this week," Kean said.
The L.A. Department of Public Works is warning of moderate flooding and sediment deposition in La Tuna Canyon, Sunland-Tujunga, Agua Dulce, and many other spots recently impacted by wildfires.
It's difficult to predict exactly when or where debris flows will occur, though they're more likely to blast down steep hills, through recently burned areas and in places you've seen them before. Any number of spots along Pacific Coast Highway come to mind, as does Montecito in Santa Barbara County. The latter area saw 7,000 mudslides during the early January storm, according to Kean.
Burned areas aside — which we'll get to in the next section — much of whether debris flows are possible or likely comes down to how saturated the soil is.
It’s like a sand castle. If you add a little bit of water that holds it together. Add too much water and that thing’s just going to fall apart.
On years like this one, prolonged, heavy rainfall has brought much of our soil close to saturation. When a big, intense burst of rain comes along, it can actually build up pressure within the soil, pushing the grains apart and keeping them from sticking together.
“It’s like a sand castle,” said Kean. "If you add a little bit of water that holds it together. Add too much water and that thing’s just going to fall apart. What we’re worried about for this storm is getting too much water.”
Enough water, and all of a sudden you have an unstoppable wall of mud that can move boulders and obliterate trees.
Generally speaking, our steeper slopes are more susceptible.
There's a long history of debris flows across SoCal, like what occurred in La Conchita in 2005 and in Montecito in 2018 — the latter of which was the result of another major factor that can make mudflows more likely: wildfire.
Over the past decade or so when we've talked about debris flows, usually it's in areas that've recently been stripped clean by one.
When a fire scorches a hillside, a few things happen.
A waxy, water repellent layer can form on the surface of the soil, making it less able to absorb the water falling from the sky. Vegetation that’d normally hold soil in place and protect it from fast-falling raindrops is missing, leaving the soil to be battered, break loose and flow fast downhill, collecting all sorts of dangerous debris on the way.
“You don’t have that binding matter, and the organic matter in the soil has been fried. And you’ve got this water-repellent layer. That combo makes the soil easier to erode,” Kean said.
It seems these conditions are likely to become more common as the climate continues to change.
Our fire season is getting longer as our temperatures rise and our rainy season potentially shrinks in length. That means more hills denuded by flames and more soil left vulnerable to rain.
Intense, short bursts of precipitation — exactly what trigger debris flows — could also become more of the norm as climate change progresses. That's bad news for flood risk across the state.
“The thing I think that we can expect more often is the big ones — the ones more like Montecito. Now those aren’t going to happen every year, but they may become more frequent,” said Kean.
The increased risk associated with post-fire debris flows doesn’t completely abate for at least five years, until vegetation has had some time to reestablish.
If you’re curious about the risk for your area, the USGS has a dedicated map that might help. And if you live in L.A. County, the Department of Public Works forecasts debris and mudflow threats to different basins across the region when it rains.
To be safe, if you live in a hilly area that’s burned in the past two years, anticipate some sort of post-fire debris-flows when it rains.
And then there are the bigger, long-term things you should do.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration put together this extensive guide on how to prepare. The good news is that the supplies are similar to what you should have if you’ve properly prepared for earthquakes.
