California Could See A Snow Drought This Year. What Will It Mean For The State's Water Supply?

The California Department of Water Resources recorded 7 1/2 inches of snow depth and a snow water equivalent of 3 inches during Tuesday's first snow survey of the season at Phillips Station.

The sparse patches of snow across the ground were a telltale sign of disappointing results that the data backed up. Tuesday's measurement revealed about 30% of the average for the date, according to the department.

Sean de Guzman, who manages the Snow Surveys and Water Supply Forecasting Unit for the department, said on the same day last year, he was standing on nearly 6 feet of snow with about 17 1/2 inches of snow water content.

"Vastly different to where we were last year, but still, it's only the beginning of January for this year," he said in an interview with LAist's daily news program AirTalk, which airs on 89.3 FM. "We still have a few more months to build up on our snowpack. "

Still, UCLA climate scientist Daniel Swain called Tuesday's results alarming during a YouTube information session. He said the snowpack is at or below all-time record low numbers for the beginning of January.

Potential for snow drought

Swain said California could experience snow drought, when there's a deficit in the expected snow. In a regular drought, there's little rain, snow and high temperatures.

"But a snow drought, you may actually see average to above-average precipitation and have average to above-average soil moisture but have abysmally low snowpack."

More than 75% of the snow accumulation season still lies ahead. Swain said there's still time to make up the deficits. But the odds say there will be more rain than snow this winter due to the warm temperatures, while central and Southern California could see above-average rainfall this winter.

"A lot of the storms that we have had this year have been on the warmer side," de Guzman said. "Therefore, the precipitation falling from the sky is falling as rain rather than snow.

Storms are expected to drop between 6 to 12 inches of snow in the mountains over the next 10 days, according to Swain.

"This'll be skiers rejoice. You'll get, probably, a few feet of powder coming up," he said. "Not a tremendous amount of SWE, snow water equivalent, which is really the currency that the watersheds and water managers care about. It'll certainly be better than nothing and better than we have been so far."

On top of that, the second half of January, February, and March could also show an increased chance of above-normal precipitation.

But will all that potential snow make up for the current snow deficit? De Guzman said it's still too early to tell. The state still has four snow surveys to conduct. Swain said it might be a bad snow year with possibly above-average precipitation.

Still, de Guzman said the state's water reservoirs are in great shape right now, with 116% of the statewide average thanks to the recent rainfall and last year's snowmelt and rainfall.

"Things are doing really well right now, in terms of the rainfall, especially in Southern California,” he said.