Rene Lynch
is a senior editor for Orange County, including food trends, politics — and whatever else the news gods have in store.
Published April 12, 2024 5:00 AM
Those "flowers" are piped out of ricotta cheese, the perfect topping for this crispy, cheese-y keto-friendly pie.
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Rene Lynch
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Topline:
Many of us are capping the carbs or going keto for health reasons, such as lower blood sugar. And that typically means pizza is off limits. But this is L.A., and that also means that many savvy businesses offer low carb and keto-friendly pizza crusts. Are they any good? We put several to the test.
Why it matters: Here's the bad news about low-carb and keto pizza: You're never going to be fooled into thinking it's "the real thing." But if you are trying to stick to a low-carb lifestyle, we've got some deliciously cheese-y options for when the pizza cravings hit.
Why now: We're celebrating Pizza Friday here at LAist, with Food Editor Gab Chabrán declaring L.A.-style pizza as the best in the world — yes, better than NYC, yes, better than Chicago. And we don't want to leave anyone out in our pizza-fest, even you, low-carber.
What's on offer: There are many places across L.A. that make mighty fine gluten-free pies, but the low-carb crowd can often get left behind. Hoever we've found some keto crusts that definitely scratch the itch, from a street taco pizza (carne asada, jalapeno, radishes and creamy cilantro drizzle) to a Keto White pizza, with fresh mozzarella, ricotta, romano cheese, oregano and a drizzle of garlic-infused oil. Caveat: we heated them up in a toaster oven and dipped it in ranch sauce ... you gotta do what you gotta do).
I love cheese and butter, and I swear I could eat a steak for dinner each and every night. I think I naturally align with a keto or low-carb lifestyle. Except the one thing I could never, ever give up is — pizza.
Savvy businesses across Southern California know this, and many have created low-carb or “keto-friendly” pizzas. Are they any good? I decided to find out.
Before I get to the findings, here are a few cautions: I have yet to find a low-carb or keto pizza that really, truly replaces the real thing. None of these pizzas on the list will be confused for a slice of the Margherita at Pizzeria Mozza.
Instead, the spots on this list will help you scratch that pizza itch without straying from low-carb goals that many of us adhere to as a way to keep blood sugar and weight in check. (Remember that choice of topping makes a difference when you’re carb counting — best to stick to cheese or meat options).
I also gave my test slices some broiling time in the toaster oven before eating, and I had a side of ranch for dipping too. (I figured these faux pizzas could use all the help they could get.) YMMV if you don’t take these extra steps.
Finally, many of these places do not go into great detail about the ingredients in their low-carb crusts. Where the information was available, I included it. If you have a food sensitivity, you might want to do more research before chowing down.
Here are six of the best low-carb and “keto-friendly” pizza options I could find in and around L.A. and Orange County. But I bet I missed some others. If you know of a great place making low-carb pizza, please let me know.
Stoney’s Pizza in Huntington Beach
I will be ordering this white sausage keto pie again and again.
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This was so good that my husband described it as “suspiciously good.” As in, we found ourselves eating as we wondered … could this really be “keto friendly," as stated on the menu? As well as gluten free? Hmmm. Owner Jennifer Kulik said via text that the dough is housemade, and includes cauliflower, zucchini, roasted red peppers “and some other secret ingredients we won’t say.”
This version only comes in a 12-inch pie. I certainly wasn’t fooled into thinking this was the real thing. The texture was a tad chewy, verging on a bit gummy. But the menu — and Kulik — say the entire 12-inch pie crust has only 10 net carbs. A crust that is a little gummy seems like a fair tradeoff when a “real” 12-inch pizza crust could easily pack over 150 grams of carbs.
I ordered the Keto White pizza, with fresh mozzarella, ricotta, romano cheese, oregano and a drizzle of garlic-infused oil. My husband and I wolfed it all down while standing at the kitchen island. No leftovers.
Verdict: Meet my new neighborhood pizza joint. I’m putting in a standing Friday night order.
Price: $13.99 and up, depending upon toppings. Carb count: The 12-inch pizza crust only has 10 net carbs. For the whole thing!
Location: 17210 Pacific Coast Hwy., Huntington Beach Pickup hours: Sunday, Monday and Tuesday, noon to 8 p.m., Wednesday and Thursday, 11 a.m. to 8 p.m. and Friday and Saturday, 11 a.m. to 9 p.m.
Papa Johns in Los Angeles and Orange counties
Low-carb tortilla pizza is in your future.
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This almost didn't make the list because ... it's not actually a pizza. There's no attempt to fake a crust here. This is just about Papa Johns pizza toppings served up in a bowl. I tried the chicken alfredo, and the Italian Meats Trio, made with sausage, meatballs, pepperoni, bell peppers and onions. It absolutely hit the spot, even as I still wished for some kind of crust. So here’s what we did: We made our own pizzas using low-carb tortillas.
Here's how to do it: Find a low-carb or keto tortilla of your choice. Toast it up just a bit in the oven, slather on some of the Papa Bowl as your toppings and then finish it off under the broiler with a little more cheese on top. DIY low-carb tortilla pizzas. You're welcome.
Verdict: I know there will be people who turn their noses up at this chain known for bargain-basement pizzas. But if you’re trying to stick to low-carb goals, then this Papa Bowl can help keep you on track.
Price: $8.49 Carb Count: 15 grams for the entire bowl (which seems far too rich for one person to eat in one sitting, so… leftovers!).
This take-out pizza was especially good once it was reheated, and made for plenty of leftovers.
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Fresh Brothers is a fast-casual pizza chain that emphasizes fresh ingredients and a healthier bent. Wings are baked, not fried, for example. And the salads are ah-mazing. The menu says they offer a keto crust, but I couldn’t find one in the area and I was told by a server in Irvine that they no longer do keto crusts.
But Fresh Bros. does make a “skinny dough,” and their website says these clock in at 14 grams of net carbs for two slices. There is also a personal 7-inch pizza crust that only has 20 grams of net carbs for the whole thing, and that can easily be shared with two people, so two slices apiece. (Of course, I’d rather eat the whole thing myself, but two slices of pizza for 10 net grams is not bad!) So that earned Fresh Bros. a spot on this list. I ordered the Charcotta, seen here, with double pepperoni, ricotta, mozzarella and parm and then a personal size pizza, half pepperoni and half sausage.
Verdict: Would absolutely order again. I think a great dinner would be splitting a salad such as the California Caprese or simple green salad and spliting a personal pizza heaped with low-carb toppings. That would absolutely scratch the pizza itch.
Price: $9.49 and up, depending upon the toppings Carb count: 10-14 net carb per two slices
Locations: 24 outlets across Southern California Hours: Vary by location
Xtra Cheese in Whittier is known for its Halal Detroit-style pizzas — and for piling on the cheese. If you like thick-sliced pizza, you are going to love this place. They offer up 8 x 10” slabs of low-carb crust pizza just dripping with cheese. In fact, the cheese-y burnt edges are a selling point. I was never fooled into thinking this was the real thing, The thick slab keto dough might be too doughy and dense for some, and it’s also a slightly purplish to light gray color, almost like kalamata olive bread. But, overall, it did hit the spot.
This place is also known for its inventive toppings, including piped ricotta flowers. There's the street taco pizza (carne asada, jalapeno, radishes and creamy cilantro drizzle), the shawarma pizza (chicken shawarma and pickled turnips topped with garlic sauce), the cheeseburger (ground beef, pickles and American cheese) and the chipotle shrimp (shrimp and a spicy chipotle cream sauce), among others. If you want to drool, scroll through their IG feed.
Price: $25.99 and up. Pricey, but you will have leftovers because the pie is so huge. Carbs: Not available on the website
Location: 16170 Leffingwell Rd., Whittier Hours: Wednesday through Sunday, noon to 9 p.m.
Pizza Man in North Hollywood
Not sure you can beat this deal at Pizza Man for an L.A. pizza that advertises itself as keto: $17 for a small pie, with up to six toppings of your choice, not including the cheese and sauce.
We ordered a simple sausage and onion pie from this no-frills spot that also serves salads, pastas, wings, sandwiches and more, making it a nice option for group ordering (as it allows you to stick to your low-carb game plan while everyone else can also get exactly what they want). Some of their specialty pizzas include the Mediterranean, with feta and basil, the BBQ chicken, the buffalo chicken, and the chicken alfredo, all available on keto crusts.
The verdict: Would happily order it again. Split a keto pie and a salad for a Friday night meal that won’t lead to a carb hangover in the morning.
Price: $17 and up, depending upon toppings Carbs: Not available on the website
Location: 10940 Magnolia Blvd., North Hollywood Hours: Daily, 11 a.m. to midnight
Pizza Boy in Glendale
If you look closely, you can tell that there's something different about this pizza crust. It's made from chicken for a zero carb treat.
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Can you get more low-carb than zero carbs? No, you cannot. Pizza Boy in Glendale makes several keto-friendly pizzas, including a pizza crust made out of chicken. Yep, chicken. Other available low-carb crust options include zucchini, cauliflower, broccoli, almond flour and coconut flour crusts, plus many more for those with food sensitivities.
We ordered the chicken alfredo version and TBH, the chicken crust was a little strong-tasting, and it verged on being a bit crumbly. But then I reminded myself that I couldn’t judge it against the real thing … and we ate it all. This place is serious about keto pizzas, and offers up an attractive variety including a BBQ chicken, chicken alfredo, and feta and sujuk versions as well as build-your-own options.
The verdict: Chicken crust is not for me, but it could be for you if you are dedicated to a low-carb lifestyle. I was impressed at the lengths this place goes to for people looking for alt-pizzas.
Price: $23.49 and up, depending upon the toppings Carbs: Zero carb crust, so ultimate carb count depends upon your toppings
Location: 1321 E. Colorado St., Glendale Hours: Monday through Saturday, 9:30 a.m. to 9:30 p.m., Sunday 9:30 a.m. to 9 p.m.
Adolfo Guzman-Lopez
is an arts and general assignment reporter on LAist's Explore LA team.
Published March 12, 2026 4:37 PM
A crane stands above the Ever Macro cargo container ship docked at the Port of Los Angeles on Sept. 13, 2025.
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Patrick T. Fallon
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Topline:
The Iran war has caused shipping in the Middle East, Europe and Asia to back up. But the Port of L.A., which mostly deals with trade from China, Japan and Vietnam, is not so far being affected. As cargo ship fuel cost rises, however, consumers will likely end up paying.
Why it matters: A disruption in trade through the massive SoCal port would affect hundreds of thousands of jobs in the five-county Southern California region. Port of L.A. trade accounts for 17% of all waterborne container international trade into the U.S.
Why no effect: The war is affecting shipping in the Middle East, Europe and Asia, but the Pacific Ocean trade to the U.S. is so lucrative that companies are making sure container ships are not delayed.
The backstory: Ports in the UAE, Oman and Bahrain shut down after the U.S. and Israel began attacking Iran. And that’s slowed trade to countries in the region. It’s also caused the cost of fuel to spike, which will likely be passed on to consumers.
In his monthly briefing Thursday, the leader of the massive Port of L.A. complex said the port shutdowns in the Persian Gulf and slowdowns in European and Asian ports caused by the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran are not rippling to Southern California.
“We right now don't see any of that congestion happening, but it just may,” said Port of L.A. Executive Director Gene Seroka. “No one has the answer at this point in time of how long this war is going to continue and for what duration the Strait [of Hormuz] will remain closed.”
Shipping across the Pacific Ocean to U.S. ports on the West Coast, Seroka said, is so lucrative that companies are making sure container ships are not delayed. Most of the trade through the port complex is with China, Japan and Vietnam.
“I don't think you're going to see a significant impact on the West Coast,” said Ron Widdows, a former ocean carrier CEO who joined Seroka during the briefing.
The war with Iran will mark its second week Saturday. The conflict’s economic upheaval has upended politics and economies in the Middle East. European and Asian countries are feeling the ripple effects as trade along the Strait of Hormuz has slowed.
Southern California consumers will feel the effect on the pocketbook
The war’s effects on rising prices at gasoline stations in the U.S. is also leading to price increases in cargo ship fuel, known as “bunker.”
“Those bunker prices effectively doubling right now are passed on almost immediately, and in some cases with a 30-day notice, to shippers, [and] they'll be passed on to the cost of those goods,” Seroka said.
For now, container volume at the Port of L.A. is good, with 812,000 container units moving in and out of the L.A. port last month.
“That's about 3% higher than last year and 11% above the five-year average for February, both positive signs,” Seroka said.
A disruption in trade through the massive SoCal port would affect hundreds of thousands of jobs in the five-county Southern California region. Port of L.A. trade accounts for 17% of all waterborne container international trade into the U.S.
Mariana Dale
explores and explains the forces that shape how and what kids learn from kindergarten to high school.
Published March 12, 2026 2:20 PM
When Andres Chait made his first public appearance as acting superintendent before a closed board meeting March 2, his name was printed on folded cardstock. By the board's meeting Tuesday, his nameplate matched the rest of the board’s.
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Topline:
As the federal investigation related to Los Angeles Unified’s superintendent continues, the district’s acting leader and the elected board face key decisions about the district’s finances and negotiations with unions poised to strike.
One of many challenges: Contract negotiations with the unions representing teachers and school support staff have stalled. Members of both United Teachers Los Angeles and SEIU Local 99 voted overwhelmingly in January to give their leaders the power to call a strike. The unions plan to hold a rally in downtown Los Angeles on Wednesday.
Keep reading ... to learn about other challenges.
As the federal investigation related to Los Angeles Unified’s superintendent continues, the district’s acting leader and the elected board face key decisions about the district’s finances and negotiations with unions poised to strike.
This on top of the day-to-day tasks of running a school district that employs 83,000 people and enrolls more than 400,000 students across more than 1,000 schools.
“This removal of [Superintendent Alberto] Carvalho, which is understandable under the circumstances, comes at the very worst time for the system,” said Pedro Noguera, dean of USC’s Rossier School of Education.
LAUSD’s board voted unanimously to place Carvalho on paid administrative leave two days after FBI agents searched his home and office in late February. The reason for the searches is unknown. A DOJ spokesperson said the agency has a court-authorized warrant but declined to provide additional details.
Which means, for now, longtime administrator Andres Chait will continue leading the country’s second largest school district through a series of pressing challenges.
What does an acting superintendent do?
This is not the first time in recent history an acting superintendent has led LAUSD.
Vivian Ekchian stepped in to lead the district in 2017 when then-Superintendent Michelle King was out on medical leave; King stepped down altogether the following year. Ekchian previously served as associate superintendent and, before that, an elementary school teacher, principal, administrator and chief labor negotiator.
“The role of the acting superintendent, from my perspective, is not different from the actual superintendency,” Ekchian said. “The work needs to get done, and it doesn't stop.”
When asked about the acting superintendent’s decision-making power compared to the permanent position, a district spokesperson wrote in a statement that “acting superintendent is a board-appointed position and carries all responsibilities and authority afforded the position of district superintendent.”
Ekchian said the superintendent’s decisions are guided by the district’s existing strategic plan, consultation with other senior leaders and community partners.
“If there's an urgent matter, like a fire or something that requires immediate decision-making, systems and structures are in place for organizations and departments to know what to do next with immediate guidance from the superintendent,” Ekchian said. ”All decisions aren't the same, and the urgency is dictated by the matter at hand.”
LAUSD Superintendents (1990-present)
Bill Antón (July 1990-Sept. 1992)
Sidney Thompson (Oct. 1992-June 1997)
Ruben Zacarias (July 1997-Jan. 2000)
Ramón Cortines* (Jan. 2000-June 2000)
Roy Romer (July 2000-Oct. 2006)
David Brewer (Nov. 2006-Dec. 2008)
Ramon Cortines* (Jan. 2009-Apr. 2011)
John Deasy (Apr. 2011-Oct. 2014)
Ramon Cortines* (Oct. 2014-Dec. 2015)
Michelle King (Jan. 2016-Sept. 2017)
Vivian Ekchian* (Sept. 2017-May 2018)
Austin Beutner (May 2018-June 2021)
Megan Reilly* (July 2021-February 2022)
Alberto Carvalho (February 2022- present)
* Denotes interim
Like Ekchian, Chait rose through the ranks from teacher to administrator at LAUSD over nearly three decades.
The responsibilities of his most recent role, chief of school operations, included overseeing school safety, athletics and the district’s office of emergency management. The salary for the chief of school operations position is $278,205 annually (the district did not indicate whether his salary has changed).
Since being named acting superintendent, Chait has appeared on the district’s social media, but the district has declined to make him available to LAist or other media outlets for interviews.
In his first verbal statement to the public on Monday, March 2 before a closed board meeting, Chait said his priority as acting superintendent is to keep the district focused.
“We remain committed to academic excellence and student wellbeing,” he said. “Our core values remain unchanged. I know transitions can create uncertainty, but our district is strong.”
But contract negotiations with the district's largest unions, those that represent teachers and school support staff, have stalled. Members of both United Teachers Los Angeles and SEIU Local 99 voted overwhelmingly in January to give their leaders the power to call a strike.
An IT worker and a gardener, both in positions targeted for reductions, were among the union members that addressed the LAUSD board.
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“ A strike is always the last resort,” said Maria Nichols, president of Associated Administrators of Los Angeles, the union representing principals, on Tuesday. “None of us — AALA/Teamsters, UTLA, SEIU — want to go on a strike and be disruptive for our students, our families, our school communities, especially at a time when LAUSD is already navigating uncertainty.”
More than a hundred school support staff and other union members filled the chambers Tuesday as Nichols and other representatives addressed the board.
Alex Orozco, UTLA’s secondary vice president, told the board that negotiations were “not anywhere close” to being settled. (The following day, the union announced the most recent step of negotiations, “fact-finding,” ended without an agreement.)
The unions’ approach to Chait has been restrained so far.
“ The problem our members are facing, and students, is a systemic issue. It's not an individual,” said Max Arias, executive director of SEIU Local 99, in an interview with LAist. “We have to continue to attack the system, but I'm trying to hold out some hope that [the acting] superintendent will, you know, understand what we need to get done.”
The unions plan to hold a rally in downtown Los Angeles on Wednesday.
At Tuesday’s board meeting, Chait described a first week on the job spent visiting with teachers, principals, students, support staff and labor partners.
“As someone who's been a teacher, principal, held a number of roles in the district, I understand that you are indeed the backbone of this district,” Chait said. “The work simply just does not happen at schools or at offices without you. My commitment to you is to always come from a place of transparency, honesty and dialogue.”
Cutting back on spending
Part of the labor negotiation challenges are related to the district’s financial constraints. In February, a divided board voted to send layoff notices to more than 650 employees as part of a plan to cut spending.
Even as California is poised to fund schools at record high levels, Los Angeles Unified and other districts have grappled with increased costs.
For example, LAUSD hired more staff to support students during the pandemic, and now the federal relief dollars that initially funded those positions are gone. For the last two years, the district has relied on reserves to backfill a multi-billion-dollar deficit.
Noguera, with USC, said the budget is the district’s most immediate priority.
“There's no easy solutions,” he said, “and I think that's part of the reason why they've held off for a while on making tough decisions.”
The financial report presented Tuesday indicates that the district will continue to spend more money than it brings in over the next three years. Still to be determined are how the outstanding labor negotiations and the state budget will affect LAUSD’s spending plan for next year.
Defending immigrant families
Since the start of President Donald Trump’s second term, Los Angeles educators — and those around the country— have said the increase in immigration enforcement actions contributed to lower attendance and fewer students enrolled in school this year.
Thousands of Los Angeles Unified students have walked out in recent months to protest the Trump administration’s militarized crackdown on immigrants, detainment of children and violence against U.S. citizens protesting the raids.
Thousands of students from schools across Los Angeles walked out Wednesday, Feb 4, 2026 in peaceful protest of the Trump Administration’s immigration policies.
Families who need assistance regarding immigration, health, wellness, or housing can call LAUSD's Family Hotline: (213) 443-1300
Chait, whose own family immigrated from Chile in 1983, said the district’s work to support immigrant families will not change during his tenure.
“Please know we stand with you,” Chait said Tuesday. “We will support you. We will ensure that our campuses are safe, secure and welcoming environments for our students and staff.”
Keep up with LAist.
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Robert Garrova
explores the weird and secret bits of SoCal that would excite even the most jaded Angelenos. He also covers mental health.
Published March 12, 2026 1:38 PM
Aaron Lyons (L) and Jim Lyons (R) go over a piece from the Shakespeare canon
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Topline:
A theater project bringing the world of William Shakespeare to local veterans is gearing up for its first public performance this Sunday.
The details: For the past year, a group of about a dozen veterans have met at the West Los Angeles VA campus to study the work of the Bard of Avon. The project is a partnership between the Shakespeare Center of Los Angeles and The Veterans Collective. The group is led by trained theater artist — and fellow veteran — Aaron Lyons.
The impact: Lyons is a longtime staple of L.A.’s theater community and is a member of the Antaeus Theatre Company. He said seeing this group express themselves through these timeless works has been inspiring. “Helping them grasp Shakespeare, not only intellectually but emotionally, has been one of the most uplifting experiences of my life,” Lyons said.
Read on... for more on how to watch the performance.
A theater project bringing the world of William Shakespeare to local veterans is gearing up for its first public performance on Sunday.
For the past year, a group of about a dozen veterans have met at the West Los Angeles VA campus to study the work of the Bard of Avon.
The project is a partnership between the Shakespeare Center of Los Angeles and The Veterans Collective. The group is led by trained theater artist — and fellow veteran — Aaron Lyons.
Lyons is a longtime staple of L.A.’s theater community and is a member of the Antaeus Theatre Company. He said seeing this group express themselves through these timeless works has been inspiring.
“Helping them grasp Shakespeare, not only intellectually but emotionally, has been one of the most uplifting experiences of my life,” Lyons said.
Ranging in age from their 30s to their 70s, the group includes veterans of the Vietnam War and most of its members live at the West LA VA Campus, Lyons said.
The actor, who’s performed in more than half of Shakespeare’s plays, said part of his goal with the project was to demystify Shakespeare’s canon for veterans who might not have studied it since grade school.
“Watching this group of men and women understand it and be able to connect with it in ways that they didn’t think possible was really, really inspiring,” Lyons said.
The group will perform an original work called “Shakespeare Night Live” at 3 p.m. Sunday, March 15, at McCadden Place Theatre. The performance weaves through several Shakespearian monologues and scenes.
The war in Iran is rattling the aviation industry, from flight cancellations to rising costs for jet fuel. So if you're planning to travel this spring or summer, should you grab a ticket now, or wait?
Go ahead and book: It's generally recommended to buy international flights further in advance than domestic trips. But in the current circumstances, Sean Cudahy, an aviation reporter at The Points Guy website says he would go ahead and book even domestic flights. His advice is a sign of how the Middle East conflict is rippling outward, affecting prices and itineraries around the world, beyond the thousands of travelers who were stuck after the war forced a barrage of flight cancellations.
What do the airlines say?: The war's effect on travel was sudden and striking, resulting in the cancellation of more than 46,000 flights in and out of the Middle East from Feb. 28 — when the U.S. and Israel began bombing Iran — to March 11, according to Cirium, the aviation analytics company. As they absorb higher fuel costs, airlines could adjust prices higher across the board, or they might tuck an increase into premium fares, where they'll be less noticeable, Cudahy of The Points Guy says.
The war in Iran is rattling the aviation industry, from flight cancellations to rising costs for jet fuel. So if you're planning to travel this spring or summer, should you grab a ticket now, or wait?
"You should go ahead and book," says Sean Cudahy, an aviation reporter at The Points Guy travel and personal finance website.
It's generally recommended to buy international flights further in advance than domestic trips. But in the current circumstances, Cudahy says he would go ahead and book even domestic flights.
His advice is a sign of how the Middle East conflict is rippling outward, affecting prices and itineraries around the world, beyond the thousands of travelers who were stuck after the war forced a barrage of flight cancellations.
Airlines warn that ticket prices will rise with fuel costs
The war's effect on travel was sudden and striking, resulting in the cancellation of more than 46,000 flights in and out of the Middle East from Feb. 28 — when the U.S. and Israel began bombing Iran — to March 11, according to Cirium, the aviation analytics company.
That includes Dubai International, the busiest airport in the world for international travel, according to Airports Council International, along with popular hubs in Doha and Abu Dhabi.
But even airlines far from the Mideast are facing a sudden surge in a core expense: jet fuel. At the beginning of the year, a gallon of jet fuel cost $2.11; by March 10, the price rose to $3.40, according to the Argus U.S. Jet Fuel Index, a gain of more than 60%.
The spike came after tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz came to a virtual halt, as Iran announced it would close the waterway that normally handles about 20% of the world's oil and liquified natural gas.
Mideast refineries had been sending some 470,000 barrels of jet fuel each day through the strait to airports in Europe and elsewhere, says Rick Joswick, who heads the near-term oil analytics team at S&P Global.
The price for a gallon of jet fuel soared close to $4 in the first week of the war, prompting United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby to say on Friday that airfare price hikes from higher fuel costs would "probably start quick."
As they absorb higher fuel costs, airlines could adjust prices higher across the board, or they might tuck an increase into premium fares, where they'll be less noticeable, Cudahy of The Points Guy says.
Several airlines have publicly confirmed that they'll be raising prices to compensate, as Reuters reports. Other carriers, such as Japan Airlines, publish a schedule of fuel surcharges triggered by cost increases.
"I do think that this is ultimately going to lead to higher fares for everyone," Cudahy says. "The only question now is how significant and how long does it last?"
Air travelers stranded by the Iran conflict are greeted in Athens, Greece, after arriving on a charter flight from Dubai on Saturday.
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Crisis parallels earlier global disruptions
The higher fuel prices reflect a genuine struggle to ensure the aviation industry has ample supplies, says Joswick.
"It's not irrational. It's not some trader bidding up prices," he says. Comparing the situation to the COVID-19 pandemic, he adds, "The consumption of toilet paper didn't change. But you notice that all of the supermarkets ran out of toilet paper, right? Everyone wants to be sure that they have coverage of a critical need."
Both Cudahy and Joswick compare the Iran conflict's ripple effects to Russia launching its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, which set off flight disruptions and higher fuel prices. As long as the Strait of Hormuz is closed, Joswick says, prices will keep rising.
"If that were to persist, this would be like a 1979 kind of [oil] crisis," he says. "Anything over a month, and you're seeing a substantial long-term price increase until the flows are restored."
The U.S. and other large economies can mitigate those effects by tapping strategic oil reserves — which they opted to do on Wednesday. But Joswick predicts that while such a move can help ensure adequate oil supplies, it might not bring a sharp drop in jet fuel prices. For one thing, he says, the U.S. reserve focuses on holding crude oil, not jet fuel. And he cites logistical challenges, such as California's reliance on jet fuel that it either produces or imports.
Tips for buying a plane ticket right now
If you're ready to take your chances and book a flight, Cudahy has some guidance.
First, don't buy a restricted, basic economy ticket that you can't change later, he says.
Instead, he recommends buying a regular, full-fare economy ticket: "If the price does eventually drop, you can then go back and change it and capture the lower price."
Another tactic, Cudahy says, is to use airline miles.
"You can generally cancel it and get all your miles back later, if the price goes down," he says.
Use services such as Google Flights to comparison shop and set up alerts for price changes. And if you book flights through a third-party site such as Expedia, be sure you understand its cancellation and change policies, in case they differ from the airlines.
Because of the chance for renewed hostilities in and around Iran, Cudahy says he would try to avoid nearby airline hubs for the next couple of months.
But he wouldn't wait to book a ticket.
"In the same way that we're seeing relatively long lines at gas stations with folks trying to get their tanks filled up before the price goes up even more than it already has, I would be thinking the same way when it comes to airfare right now," he says.
While you might drive an extra mile or two to find cheaper gas, airlines and airports don't have that luxury when they buy jet fuel.
"Prices are always set on the margin," Joswick says. "That last airport that needs to buy jet fuel, they will pay whatever it takes to get that. And that price then becomes the standard for the whole industry."
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