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The Brief

The most important stories for you to know today
  • State struggling with transitional kindergarten
    A woman with light brown skin sits at a small round classroom table. A number of children eat lunch around her. One child clings to her back.
    Teacher Cintya Valdivia sits with transitional kindergarten students during snack time at the International Community School in Oakland on May 17, 2024.

    Topline:

    It’s uncertain whether California will have enough teachers to meet the state’s ambitious goals to provide transitional kindergarten to all 4-year-olds and increase bilingual education for dual-language learners.

    Why it matters: California is behind other states when it comes to investing in bilingual education and enrolling English learners in dual-language immersion programs, experts said, and the state may not have enough teachers to reach its big goals.

    Who's affected: In California, nearly 60% of children under the age of 6 live in homes where a language other than English is spoken, according to an analysis of U.S. Census data.

    Key Points

    • California is behind other states when it comes to investing in bilingual education and enrolling English learners in dual-language immersion programs.
    • In California, nearly 60% of children under the age of 6 live in homes where a language other than English is spoken, according to an analysis of U.S. Census data.
    • From 1998-2016, a voter-passed proposition limited bilingual education in public schools. It dismantled bilingual teacher training programs, and now school districts are struggling to find qualified teachers as demand grows for language immersion programs.

    For students in the transitional kindergarten classroom at Oakland’s International Community Elementary School, the day is split in half. They spend their mornings speaking and learning in Spanish from teacher Cintya Valdivia. After lunch, they learn everything in English from teacher Sophie Siebert.

    When the school year first began, the 4- and 5-year-olds dreaded the switch to English, Seibert said. The school is in Fruitvale, home to the city’s largest Latin American immigrant community, and with many students speaking Spanish, or a Mayan language called Mam at home, they were not yet comfortable with English.

    But by the end of the year, assessments showed that the students were picking up a lot of English, Seibert said.

    One student she called her “favorite, rebellious Venezuelan kid,” often avoided talking to her by saying, “I can’t speak English, Miss.” He wound up passing his assessments with flying colors, she said.

    “I just looked at him like, ‘OK, you can't understand me? You did pretty well, bilingual genius,’” Seibert said. “And so, it's really cool to see their confidence grow in another language.”

    Transitional Kindergarten In California

    California is in the middle of an ambitious plan to offer transitional kindergarten to all 4-year-olds by the 2025-2026 school year. LAist and KQED have teamed up to examine some of the challenges the state faces as it tries to add a new grade to its sprawling public school system.

    Meanwhile, Valdivia said the Spanish-speaking students’ vocabulary grew in their native language, and their sentence structures became more complex.

    Valdivia and Siebert’s classroom is a model of California’s effort to boost bilingual education, while it also works to make transitional kindergarten available to all 4-year-olds by next fall. School districts are offering TK classes in Spanish, Vietnamese, Korean and other languages that reflect the linguistic diversity of their community, and to seize upon the window when young learners are most open to language development.

    They have a lot of catching up to do: California is behind other states when it comes to investing in bilingual education and enrolling English learners in dual-language immersion programs, experts said, and the state may not have enough teachers to reach its big goals.

    “There are enormous numbers of dual-language learners in California, and taking advantage of those children’s languages and helping them develop them fully is going to be a really big lift,” said Conor Williams, a researcher at The Century Foundation who examined the state’s bilingual education policies. “Could the state do more? Absolutely.”

    What Is Transitional Kindergarten?

    In 2010, state lawmakers required districts to offer a new program— transitional kindergarten— to kids who would be excluded from kindergarten because of a change to the cutoff age.

    The California Department of Education considers pre-K as an umbrella term — transitional kindergarten is pre-K, but not everything that could be considered pre-K is transitional kindergarten. (Programs like Head Start, for example.)

    Read more.

    Why does bilingualism matter?

    In California, nearly 60% of children under the age of 6 live in homes where a language other than English is spoken, according to an analysis of U.S. Census data.

    A five-year study shows these dual-language learners, who are more likely to live in low-income households, benefit the most from a year of transitional kindergarten. When they get to kindergarten, they’re ahead of their peers in math and literacy skills.

    “Sometimes, we hear, ‘Oh, if they want to learn English, we need to get them in English classrooms,’ but actually, the opposite is true,” said Carolyne Crolotte, who promotes dual-language learner programs for Early Edge California. “If children have a very strong foundation in their home language, they actually learn English more easily.” 

    School districts across the state are promoting the value of bilingualism. In Oakland, parents can attend district-sponsored presentations on how to keep a child’s home language alive so they don’t lose it when they start going to school. In Los Angeles County, billboards and bus stop benches are plastered with the message “two languages, twice the opportunities.”

    It’s a dramatic shift in public attitude and policy toward bilingual education.

    In 1998, California voters passed Proposition 227, which limited bilingual education in public schools. Backers of the measure were worried bilingual instruction was delaying dual language learners’ ability to read, write and speak English because they were spending too much time learning in their home language.

    Then in 2016, voters overturned that policy, paving the way for language immersion programs.

    But by that time, the damage was done. Proposition 227 dismantled bilingual teacher training programs, Crolotte said, and now school districts are struggling to find qualified teachers as demand grows for language immersion programs.

    “It’s been a challenge trying to get teachers back into the classroom and then also to get new bilingual teachers to fill these classrooms,” she said.

    Why aren't there teachers?

    The shortage is affecting all grades, but is particularly acute at the TK level because each classroom needs more teachers.

    Currently, the state sets the average class size for transitional kindergarten at 24, with one adult for every 12 students to ensure they receive enough attention and supervision — two marks of a high-quality early childhood education program. By the 2025-26 school year, the demand for teachers will be greater as the state lowers the average class size to 20, or one adult for every 10 students.

    Already, school districts and charter schools surveyed by the California Department of Education said they’re having a hard time finding fully credentialed teachers to teach TK by the 2025-26 school year.

    These agencies also had challenges hiring assistant teachers to maintain adult-child ratios, resulting in a 12% vacancy rate for the position at the beginning of the 2022-23 school year. That number slightly improved to 8% by the middle of that year.

    A light-skinned woman in a colorful tie dye sweatshirt kneels on a playground while kids play around her.
    Teacher Sophie Seiberth speaks with transitional kindergarten students during recess at the International Community School in Oakland.
    (
    Beth LaBerge
    /
    KQED
    )

    “These positions are some of the most difficult to staff because pay is lower, and often those positions are part-day,” said Hanna Melnick, senior policy advisor at the Learning Policy Institute who analyzed the survey results.

    A sample audit of school districts found at least 20 school districts and 50 charter schools failed to comply with the class size requirement and/or adult-to-child ratio in the 2022-23 year when the TK expansion began. These districts and charter schools faced fines ranging from $1,706 to nearly $7 million, according to a report by EdSource.

    The districts blamed the problem on a nationwide teacher shortage and difficulty hiring assistant teachers.

    To address the shortage, California invested $25 million to prepare teachers to work in dual-language classroom settings. As part of the TK expansion, the state also invested hundreds of millions of dollars to increase the number of early educators in TK and the California State Preschool Program, which serves income-eligible 3- to 4-year-olds.

    Critics say the state is missing out on a valuable source of teachers: those who already have experience working with 4-year-olds in private and nonprofit child care settings, and already have met some of the requirements for a teaching credential.

    They also point out that women of color and immigrant women form the backbone of the early child care workforce, and by easing their way into the TK classrooms, they could better reflect the diversity of the student body and improve their wages.

    “When it comes to young children, you come to work with your entire heart and your full emotional self. That requires training and experience, and just having more education [from a credentialing program] isn’t going to create that,” said Krystell Guzman, co-director of La Plazita Preschool, a private preschool chain in Oakland and San Leandro.

    She said most 4-year-old students are leaving her program to attend the Spanish immersion TK classes at OUSD, leaving her to scramble to preserve jobs for the immigrant women on her staff.

    What could change?

    Advocates for racial equity in public education are supporting a bill by Central Valley Assemblymember Esmeralda Soria that would offer incentives to educators already in the early learning and care field to train to become TK teachers. Offering stipends, child care, transportation and academic support to those educators — many of whom have bachelor’s degrees — would give them a boost as they pursue their credential, said Natalie Wheatfall-Lum, director of TK-12 policy at EdTrust-West.

    “We know that being in a culturally and linguistically affirming environment and being taught by culturally and linguistically diverse educators is an effective equity strategy — that’s part of what ‘quality’ means,” she said. “So we want families to be able to choose TK without having to compromise on quality — including a space where they feel welcomed and can see themselves represented.”

    The California Department of Education is responding to this concern by advising educators that even when they don’t speak a student's home language, they can learn a few words or provide books that recognize the child’s home language. This recommendation will be included in a new edition of the Preschool/Transitional Kindergarten Learning Foundations, which the department will release this summer.

    Meanwhile, school districts like Oakland Unified are partnering with a local college to recruit new teachers, and offering financial aid to current staff who want to work in TK classrooms.

    Seibert received an emergency permit through the district to co-teach the dual immersion TK classroom at International Community Elementary School while she earns her credential.

    The 29-year-old has experience working at a private preschool, but said she was drawn to the statewide effort to provide free early education for all children. She said working side-by-side with Valdivia, and getting additional support from a classroom aide, gave her a chance to hone her teaching skills and provide one-on-one support to the students who needed it.

    Her goal was to help students get used to the routines of the school day, learn to solve problems and collaborate with their peers — skills that she said will help them succeed in kindergarten and beyond.

    “Those are key goals we’re trying to reach. All the letter recognition, rhyming skills and counting are just like the icing on top,” she said.

    She knows she’s fortunate.

    Next year, the district won’t have enough funding to put two teachers and an aide in one classroom.

  • Consumers to pay for spike in cargo fuel cost
    A green cargo container ship is docked. A crane stands above the ship and looms over the water front.
    A crane stands above the Ever Macro cargo container ship docked at the Port of Los Angeles on Sept. 13, 2025.

    Topline:

    The Iran war has caused shipping in the Middle East, Europe and Asia to back up. But the Port of L.A., which mostly deals with trade from China, Japan and Vietnam, is not so far being affected. As cargo ship fuel cost rises, however, consumers will likely end up paying.

    Why it matters: A disruption in trade through the massive SoCal port would affect hundreds of thousands of jobs in the five-county Southern California region. Port of L.A. trade accounts for 17% of all waterborne container international trade into the U.S.

    Why no effect: The war is affecting shipping in the Middle East, Europe and Asia, but the Pacific Ocean trade to the U.S. is so lucrative that companies are making sure container ships are not delayed.

    The backstory: Ports in the UAE, Oman and Bahrain shut down after the U.S. and Israel began attacking Iran. And that’s slowed trade to countries in the region. It’s also caused the cost of fuel to spike, which will likely be passed on to consumers.

    Go deeper: The war with Iran shocks the global economy

    In his monthly briefing Thursday, the leader of the massive Port of L.A. complex said the port shutdowns in the Persian Gulf and slowdowns in European and Asian ports caused by the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran are not rippling to Southern California.

    “We right now don't see any of that congestion happening, but it just may,” said Port of L.A. Executive Director Gene Seroka. “No one has the answer at this point in time of how long this war is going to continue and for what duration the Strait [of Hormuz] will remain closed.”

    Shipping across the Pacific Ocean to U.S. ports on the West Coast, Seroka said, is so lucrative that companies are making sure container ships are not delayed. Most of the trade through the port complex is with China, Japan and Vietnam.

    “I don't think you're going to see a significant impact on the West Coast,” said Ron Widdows, a former ocean carrier CEO who joined Seroka during the briefing.

    The war with Iran will mark its second week Saturday. The conflict’s economic upheaval has upended politics and economies in the Middle East. European and Asian countries are feeling the ripple effects as trade along the Strait of Hormuz has slowed.

    Southern California consumers will feel the effect on the pocketbook

    The war’s effects on rising prices at gasoline stations in the U.S. is also leading to price increases in cargo ship fuel, known as “bunker.”

    “Those bunker prices effectively doubling right now are passed on almost immediately, and in some cases with a 30-day notice, to shippers, [and] they'll be passed on to the cost of those goods,” Seroka said.

    For now, container volume at the Port of L.A. is good, with 812,000 container units moving in and out of the L.A. port last month.

    “That's about 3% higher than last year and 11% above the five-year average for February, both positive signs,” Seroka said.

    A disruption in trade through the massive SoCal port would affect hundreds of thousands of jobs in the five-county Southern California region. Port of L.A. trade accounts for 17% of all waterborne container international trade into the U.S.

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  • Mounting pressure from labor, budget talks
    A bald man with medium light skin tone, a moustache and goatee
    When Andres Chait made his first public appearance as acting superintendent before a closed board meeting March 2, his name was printed on folded cardstock. By the board's meeting Tuesday, his nameplate matched the rest of the board’s.

    Topline:

    As the federal investigation related to Los Angeles Unified’s superintendent continues, the district’s acting leader and the elected board face key decisions about the district’s finances and negotiations with unions poised to strike.

    The backstory: LAUSD’s board voted unanimously to place Carvalho on paid administrative leave two days after FBI agents searched his home and office in late February. The reason for the searches is unknown. While Carvalho has declared his innocence and expressed a desire to return to his job, the district says an investigation is ongoing.

    One of many challenges: Contract negotiations with the unions representing teachers and school support staff have stalled. Members of both United Teachers Los Angeles and SEIU Local 99 voted overwhelmingly in January to give their leaders the power to call a strike. The unions plan to hold a rally in downtown Los Angeles on Wednesday.

    Keep reading ... to learn about other challenges.

    As the federal investigation related to Los Angeles Unified’s superintendent continues, the district’s acting leader and the elected board face key decisions about the district’s finances and negotiations with unions poised to strike.

    This on top of the day-to-day tasks of running a school district that employs 83,000 people and enrolls more than 400,000 students across more than 1,000 schools.

    “This removal of [Superintendent Alberto] Carvalho, which is understandable under the circumstances, comes at the very worst time for the system,” said Pedro Noguera, dean of USC’s Rossier School of Education.

    LAUSD’s board voted unanimously to place Carvalho on paid administrative leave two days after FBI agents searched his home and office in late February. The reason for the searches is unknown. A DOJ spokesperson said the agency has a court-authorized warrant but declined to provide additional details.

    While Carvalho has declared his innocence and expressed a desire to return to his job, the district says an investigation is ongoing.

    Which means, for now, longtime administrator Andres Chait will continue leading the country’s second largest school district through a series of pressing challenges.

    What does an acting superintendent do?

    This is not the first time in recent history an acting superintendent has led LAUSD.

    Vivian Ekchian stepped in to lead the district in 2017 when then-Superintendent Michelle King was out on medical leave; King stepped down altogether the following year. Ekchian previously served as associate superintendent and, before that, an elementary school teacher, principal, administrator and chief labor negotiator.

    “The role of the acting superintendent, from my perspective, is not different from the actual superintendency,” Ekchian said. “The work needs to get done, and it doesn't stop.”

    When asked about the acting superintendent’s decision-making power compared to the permanent position, a district spokesperson wrote in a statement that “acting superintendent is a board-appointed position and carries all responsibilities and authority afforded the position of district superintendent.”

    Ekchian said the superintendent’s decisions are guided by the district’s existing strategic plan, consultation with other senior leaders and community partners.

    “If there's an urgent matter, like a fire or something that requires immediate decision-making, systems and structures are in place for organizations and departments to know what to do next with immediate guidance from the superintendent,” Ekchian said.  ”All decisions aren't the same, and the urgency is dictated by the matter at hand.”

    LAUSD Superintendents (1990-present)

    • Bill Antón (July 1990-Sept. 1992)
    • Sidney Thompson (Oct. 1992-June 1997)
    • Ruben Zacarias (July 1997-Jan. 2000)
    • Ramón Cortines* (Jan. 2000-June 2000)
    • Roy Romer (July 2000-Oct. 2006)
    • David Brewer (Nov. 2006-Dec. 2008)
    • Ramon Cortines* (Jan. 2009-Apr. 2011)
    • John Deasy (Apr. 2011-Oct. 2014)
    • Ramon Cortines* (Oct. 2014-Dec. 2015)
    • Michelle King (Jan. 2016-Sept. 2017)
    • Vivian Ekchian* (Sept. 2017-May 2018)
    • Austin Beutner (May 2018-June 2021)
    • Megan Reilly* (July 2021-February 2022)
    • Alberto Carvalho (February 2022- present)

    * Denotes interim

    Like Ekchian, Chait rose through the ranks from teacher to administrator at LAUSD over nearly three decades.

    The responsibilities of his most recent role, chief of school operations, included overseeing school safety, athletics and the district’s office of emergency management. The salary for the chief of school operations position is $278,205 annually (the district did not indicate whether his salary has changed).

    Since being named acting superintendent, Chait has appeared on the district’s social media, but the district has declined to make him available to LAist or other media outlets for interviews.

    In his first verbal statement to the public on Monday, March 2 before a closed board meeting, Chait said his priority as acting superintendent is to keep the district focused.

    “We remain committed to academic excellence and student wellbeing,” he said. “Our core values remain unchanged. I know transitions can create uncertainty, but our district is strong.”

    Mounting pressure from labor

    On Tuesday, the board approved labor agreements with the unions representing school police, support staff supervisors, office personnel and other classified staff.

    But contract negotiations with the district's largest unions, those that represent teachers and school support staff, have stalled. Members of both United Teachers Los Angeles and SEIU Local 99 voted overwhelmingly in January to give their leaders the power to call a strike.

    A room with nine people seated at a dais and dozens standing in the audience. Several wear purple shirts with yellow lettering that says SEIU.
    An IT worker and a gardener, both in positions targeted for reductions, were among the union members that addressed the LAUSD board.
    (
    Mariana Dale
    /
    LAist
    )

    “ A strike is always the last resort,” said Maria Nichols, president of Associated Administrators of Los Angeles, the union representing principals, on Tuesday. “None of us — AALA/Teamsters, UTLA, SEIU — want to go on a strike and be disruptive for our students, our families, our school communities, especially at a time when LAUSD is already navigating uncertainty.”

    More than a hundred school support staff and other union members filled the chambers Tuesday as Nichols and other representatives addressed the board.

    Alex Orozco, UTLA’s secondary vice president, told the board that negotiations were “not anywhere close” to being settled. (The following day, the union announced the most recent step of negotiations, “fact-finding,” ended without an agreement.)

    In past negotiations, the district’s superintendent has been a lightning rod for the union’s criticisms. In 2018, for example, UTLA weaponized then-Superintendent Austin Beutner’s calendar ahead of a strike.

    The unions’ approach to Chait has been restrained so far.

    “ The problem our members are facing, and students, is a systemic issue. It's not an individual,” said Max Arias, executive director of SEIU Local 99, in an interview with LAist. “We have to continue to attack the system, but I'm trying to hold out some hope that [the acting] superintendent will, you know, understand what we need to get done.”

    The unions plan to hold a rally in downtown Los Angeles on Wednesday.

    At Tuesday’s board meeting, Chait described a first week on the job spent visiting with teachers, principals, students, support staff and labor partners.

    “As someone who's been a teacher, principal, held a number of roles in the district, I understand that you are indeed the backbone of this district,” Chait said. “The work simply just does not happen at schools or at offices without you. My commitment to you is to always come from a place of transparency, honesty and dialogue.”

    Cutting back on spending

    Part of the labor negotiation challenges are related to the district’s financial constraints. In February, a divided board voted to send layoff notices to more than 650 employees as part of a plan to cut spending.

    Even as California is poised to fund schools at record high levels, Los Angeles Unified and other districts have grappled with increased costs.

    For example, LAUSD hired more staff to support students during the pandemic, and now the federal relief dollars that initially funded those positions are gone. For the last two years, the district has relied on reserves to backfill a multi-billion-dollar deficit.

    Noguera, with USC, said the budget is the district’s most immediate priority.

    “There's no easy solutions,” he said, “and I think that's part of the reason why they've held off for a while on making tough decisions.”

    The financial report presented Tuesday indicates that the district will continue to spend more money than it brings in over the next three years. Still to be determined are how the outstanding labor negotiations and the state budget will affect LAUSD’s spending plan for next year.

    Defending immigrant families

    Since the start of President Donald Trump’s second term, Los Angeles educators — and those around the country— have said the increase in immigration enforcement actions contributed to lower attendance and fewer students enrolled in school this year.

    Thousands of Los Angeles Unified students have walked out in recent months to protest the Trump administration’s militarized crackdown on immigrants, detainment of children and violence against U.S. citizens protesting the raids.

    A teenage girl, surrounded by other teenagers, holds up a sign that says "We are skipping our lessons to teach u one."
    Thousands of students from schools across Los Angeles walked out Wednesday, Feb 4, 2026 in peaceful protest of the Trump Administration’s immigration policies.
    (
    Mariana Dale
    /
    LAist
    )

    In response, the district has expanded summer school and transportation options, distributed “know your rights” information and asked the federal government not to conduct immigration enforcement actions near schools. Teachers and community organizations have also volunteered to patrol schools before and after school.

    On Tuesday, the board instructed staff to review contracts with outside vendors and evaluate whether they support or enable immigration enforcement and detention.

    LAUSD immigration resources

    Los Angeles Unified School District offers resources for families concerned about immigration through its website.

    Families who need assistance regarding immigration, health, wellness, or housing can call LAUSD's Family Hotline: (213) 443-1300

    Chait, whose own family immigrated from Chile in 1983, said the district’s work to support immigrant families will not change during his tenure.

    “Please know we stand with you,” Chait said Tuesday. “We will support you. We will ensure that our campuses are safe, secure and welcoming environments for our students and staff.”

  • Gears up for Shakespeare performance
    Two men stand and look at a binder containing a work of William Shakespeare. There is a window behind them and some wooden chairs.
    Aaron Lyons (L) and Jim Lyons (R) go over a piece from the Shakespeare canon

    Topline:

    A theater project bringing the world of William Shakespeare to local veterans is gearing up for its first public performance this Sunday.

    The details: For the past year, a group of about a dozen veterans have met at the West Los Angeles VA campus to study the work of the Bard of Avon. The project is a partnership between the Shakespeare Center of Los Angeles and The Veterans Collective. The group is led by trained theater artist — and fellow veteran — Aaron Lyons.

    The impact: Lyons is a longtime staple of L.A.’s theater community and is a member of the Antaeus Theatre Company. He said seeing this group express themselves through these timeless works has been inspiring. “Helping them grasp Shakespeare, not only intellectually but emotionally, has been one of the most uplifting experiences of my life,” Lyons said.

    Read on... for more on how to watch the performance.

    A theater project bringing the world of William Shakespeare to local veterans is gearing up for its first public performance on Sunday.

    For the past year, a group of about a dozen veterans have met at the West Los Angeles VA campus to study the work of the Bard of Avon.

    The project is a partnership between the Shakespeare Center of Los Angeles and The Veterans Collective. The group is led by trained theater artist — and fellow veteran — Aaron Lyons.

    Lyons is a longtime staple of L.A.’s theater community and is a member of the Antaeus Theatre Company. He said seeing this group express themselves through these timeless works has been inspiring.

    “Helping them grasp Shakespeare, not only intellectually but emotionally, has been one of the most uplifting experiences of my life,” Lyons said.

    Ranging in age from their 30s to their 70s, the group includes veterans of the Vietnam War and most of its members live at the West LA VA Campus, Lyons said.

    The actor, who’s performed in more than half of Shakespeare’s plays, said part of his goal with the project was to demystify Shakespeare’s canon for veterans who might not have studied it since grade school.

    “Watching this group of men and women understand it and be able to connect with it in ways that they didn’t think possible was really, really inspiring,” Lyons said.

    The group will perform an original work called “Shakespeare Night Live” at 3 p.m. Sunday, March 15, at McCadden Place Theatre. The performance weaves through several Shakespearian monologues and scenes.

    Tickets are $10 and available at the Shakespeare Center of Los Angeles website.

  • How will the Iran war affect your travel plans

    Topline:

    The war in Iran is rattling the aviation industry, from flight cancellations to rising costs for jet fuel. So if you're planning to travel this spring or summer, should you grab a ticket now, or wait?

    Go ahead and book: It's generally recommended to buy international flights further in advance than domestic trips. But in the current circumstances, Sean Cudahy, an aviation reporter at The Points Guy website says he would go ahead and book even domestic flights. His advice is a sign of how the Middle East conflict is rippling outward, affecting prices and itineraries around the world, beyond the thousands of travelers who were stuck after the war forced a barrage of flight cancellations.

    What do the airlines say?: The war's effect on travel was sudden and striking, resulting in the cancellation of more than 46,000 flights in and out of the Middle East from Feb. 28 — when the U.S. and Israel began bombing Iran — to March 11, according to Cirium, the aviation analytics company. As they absorb higher fuel costs, airlines could adjust prices higher across the board, or they might tuck an increase into premium fares, where they'll be less noticeable, Cudahy of The Points Guy says.

    The war in Iran is rattling the aviation industry, from flight cancellations to rising costs for jet fuel. So if you're planning to travel this spring or summer, should you grab a ticket now, or wait?

    "You should go ahead and book," says Sean Cudahy, an aviation reporter at The Points Guy travel and personal finance website.

    It's generally recommended to buy international flights further in advance than domestic trips. But in the current circumstances, Cudahy says he would go ahead and book even domestic flights.

    His advice is a sign of how the Middle East conflict is rippling outward, affecting prices and itineraries around the world, beyond the thousands of travelers who were stuck after the war forced a barrage of flight cancellations.

    Airlines warn that ticket prices will rise with fuel costs

    The war's effect on travel was sudden and striking, resulting in the cancellation of more than 46,000 flights in and out of the Middle East from Feb. 28 — when the U.S. and Israel began bombing Iran — to March 11, according to Cirium, the aviation analytics company.

    That includes Dubai International, the busiest airport in the world for international travel, according to Airports Council International, along with popular hubs in Doha and Abu Dhabi.


    But even airlines far from the Mideast are facing a sudden surge in a core expense: jet fuel. At the beginning of the year, a gallon of jet fuel cost $2.11; by March 10, the price rose to $3.40, according to the Argus U.S. Jet Fuel Index, a gain of more than 60%.

    The spike came after tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz came to a virtual halt, as Iran announced it would close the waterway that normally handles about 20% of the world's oil and liquified natural gas.

    Mideast refineries had been sending some 470,000 barrels of jet fuel each day through the strait to airports in Europe and elsewhere, says Rick Joswick, who heads the near-term oil analytics team at S&P Global.

    The price for a gallon of jet fuel soared close to $4 in the first week of the war, prompting United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby to say on Friday that airfare price hikes from higher fuel costs would "probably start quick."

    As they absorb higher fuel costs, airlines could adjust prices higher across the board, or they might tuck an increase into premium fares, where they'll be less noticeable, Cudahy of The Points Guy says.

    Several airlines have publicly confirmed that they'll be raising prices to compensate, as Reuters reports. Other carriers, such as Japan Airlines, publish a schedule of fuel surcharges triggered by cost increases.

    "I do think that this is ultimately going to lead to higher fares for everyone," Cudahy says. "The only question now is how significant and how long does it last?"

    Air travelers stranded by the Iran conflict are greeted in Athens, Greece, after arriving on a charter flight from Dubai on Saturday.
    (
    Giannis Antwnoglou
    /
    SOOC/AFP via Getty Images
    )

    Crisis parallels earlier global disruptions

    The higher fuel prices reflect a genuine struggle to ensure the aviation industry has ample supplies, says Joswick.

    "It's not irrational. It's not some trader bidding up prices," he says. Comparing the situation to the COVID-19 pandemic, he adds, "The consumption of toilet paper didn't change. But you notice that all of the supermarkets ran out of toilet paper, right? Everyone wants to be sure that they have coverage of a critical need."

    Both Cudahy and Joswick compare the Iran conflict's ripple effects to Russia launching its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, which set off flight disruptions and higher fuel prices. As long as the Strait of Hormuz is closed, Joswick says, prices will keep rising.

    "If that were to persist, this would be like a 1979 kind of [oil] crisis," he says. "Anything over a month, and you're seeing a substantial long-term price increase until the flows are restored."

    The U.S. and other large economies can mitigate those effects by tapping strategic oil reserves — which they opted to do on Wednesday. But Joswick predicts that while such a move can help ensure adequate oil supplies, it might not bring a sharp drop in jet fuel prices. For one thing, he says, the U.S. reserve focuses on holding crude oil, not jet fuel. And he cites logistical challenges, such as California's reliance on jet fuel that it either produces or imports.

    Tips for buying a plane ticket right now

    If you're ready to take your chances and book a flight, Cudahy has some guidance.

    First, don't buy a restricted, basic economy ticket that you can't change later, he says.

    Instead, he recommends buying a regular, full-fare economy ticket: "If the price does eventually drop, you can then go back and change it and capture the lower price."

    Another tactic, Cudahy says, is to use airline miles.

    "You can generally cancel it and get all your miles back later, if the price goes down," he says.

    Use services such as Google Flights to comparison shop and set up alerts for price changes. And if you book flights through a third-party site such as Expedia, be sure you understand its cancellation and change policies, in case they differ from the airlines.

    Because of the chance for renewed hostilities in and around Iran, Cudahy says he would try to avoid nearby airline hubs for the next couple of months.

    But he wouldn't wait to book a ticket.

    "In the same way that we're seeing relatively long lines at gas stations with folks trying to get their tanks filled up before the price goes up even more than it already has, I would be thinking the same way when it comes to airfare right now," he says.

    While you might drive an extra mile or two to find cheaper gas, airlines and airports don't have that luxury when they buy jet fuel.

    "Prices are always set on the margin," Joswick says. "That last airport that needs to buy jet fuel, they will pay whatever it takes to get that. And that price then becomes the standard for the whole industry."
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