A view of mudslide damage in Los Angeles, California where nearly seven inches of rain had fallen by Monday.
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Mario Tama
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Topline:
Los Angeles County appears hardest hit in the second of two big storms to hit California in a week. The storm has parked itself over the region, causing debris flows and widespread flooding.
Why it matters: Don't put away those sandbags just yet, because even after a day of record-breaking rainfall, heavy precipitation is expected to continue Monday into Tuesday.
What's next: Throughout the day, the storm should shift slightly to the west, affecting western L.A. and Ventura counties, which have already been getting walloped.
Keep reading... for more details and the latest conditions.
Where to find the latest information
Some resources to make sure you have the most up-to-date information:
Officials urged people in L.A. County to stay vigilant as the second of two atmospheric rivers continues to soak the region, causing floods, downed trees, debris flows and other hazards ahead of what is expected to be another full day of rain on Tuesday.
So far, Los Angeles County has been the hardest hit since the storm parked itself over the region, causing debris flows and widespread flooding.
The storm is expected to head southeast on Tuesday over Riverside and San Diego counties. L.A., meanwhile, will keep getting drenched. An additional 3 to 6 inches is possible before things start to dry out Wednesday.
Downtown L.A. saw 4.1 inches of rain, breaking the previous daily rainfall record of 2.55 inches set in 1927. Sunday was the 10th wettest day in L.A. history.
However, those rainfall totals are mild compared to what we've seen at other weather stations. More than 10 inches of precipitation has fallen on Topanga and Woodland Hills in the western San Fernando Valley.
"Stay safe and off the roads. Only leave your house if it is absolutely necessary," L.A. Mayor Karen Bass said at a news conference Monday.
As of noon Monday, the L.A. Fire Department had rescued trapped motorists, responded to 130 flooding incidents, and 49 reports involving mud and debris flows, officials said.
At around 9 p.m. Sunday, 16 residents were evacuated from nine Studio City homes after a mudslide damaged two structures on Lockridge road. And L.A. firefighters evacuated people from at least three homes affected by debris flows on West Boris Drive in Tarzana. A landslide on Beverly Crest damaged at least six homes, forcing the evacuation of 15 people.
More than 7,200 LADWP customers were without power as of midday.
Flood watches and warnings are in place from Santa Barbara to San Diego counties through Tuesday as the heavy rain is expected to continue.
These long, sustained periods of rain are characteristic of El Niño storms. Warmer than normal waters off the coast — often associated with the climate phenomenon — are juicing our recent storms by sending more heat and water into the atmosphere.
Keep scrolling to see more information on rainfalls, landslides and other critically important information about the storm.
A man walks his dog on the edge of the Los Angeles River, carrying stormwater downstream Sunday, Feb. 4, 2024.
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Damian Dovarganes
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Areas of high concern
The southbound 405 Freeway at Moraga Drive, where a rock slide is blocking an outside lane.
The 5 Freeway's southbound connector to the 110 Freeway is blocked by a rock slide.
San Bernardino County officials are concerned about the potential amounts of snow falling in the mountain communities from Arrowhead to Big Bear. You'll recall that last year, massive amounts of snow paralyzed the communities, stranding people in their homes, destroying a local grocery store and making it difficult for people to get food and services. They are expecting 2 to 4 feet of snow above 7,000 feet and up to 10 inches in the 5,000 to 6,000 foot level.
The Lost Hills Sheriff's Station says all roads going to and from Malibu are having rock and mud slides. Malibu Canyon Road is closed between Malibu Crest and Mulholland Highway.
Sheriff's officials advise against driving on Kanan Dume Road, Topanga Canyon and other area roads.
Caltrans has closed State Route 23, aka Westlake Boulevard south of East Potrero Road due to flooding.
Pacific Coast Highway between Warner and Seaport in Huntington Beach is closed due to flooding.
Video: High winds on State Route 2 at post mile 57.5 in Angeles Forest this afternoon. SR-2 was already closed from Mt. Wilson Red Box Rd. to Upper Big Tujunga Canyon Rd & Islip Saddle to Vincent Gulch before the storm. STAY OFF mountain routes during this storm. #ACH#stormpic.twitter.com/wBzoSglcTS
It's not uncommon for rocks and mud to flow off steep hillsides and onto roads during heavy rains, and debris flows were reported across the region overnight. Additional incidents are likely as the day progresses.
Studio City: Two homes damaged by mudflow, with a total of 16 residents evacuated from nine homes. Heavy equipment has been brought out to help clear the road.
Tarzana: Three homes damaged by a mudflow and two people evacuated from a home.
Beverly Crest: Seven homes have been damaged by debris flow and 15 people were evacuated.
Topanga Canyon: A mudflow has closed a portion of the canyon.
Southbound 5 Freeway to southbound 110 Freeway, and Riverside Drive on-ramp: Closed due to mudflow.
405 Freeway just before Sunset: Small debris flow has closed the offramp.
Agoura Hills: Small mudslides at Cornell road and Eagleton street.
Malibu: 10-foot boulder reported on northbound Malibu Canyon Road just north of Pacific Coast Highway.
Several homes on Lockridge Road in Studio City damaged after part of the hillside came down. Look at the boulders that made their way down the hill to Fryman. @foxlapic.twitter.com/PF92aG1mau
But Jon Sweeten, a reservoir regulation engineer with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Los Angeles District, said videos of the Los Angeles River seemingly on the verge of overflowing shouldn't necessarily be cause for alarm.
“People see a lot of water in a channel that they see that's normally dry and they go, ‘Oh my goodness, there's a lot of water,’” he said. “That's just the channel operating in the way it was designed.”
The system, Sweeten added, “is designed to hold some of the water behind the dams and release it into concrete line channels that will convey the flow very effectively to the ocean.”
Since the 51 miles of river pass through different cities, at the time it was built, they were responsible for building bridges within their respective boundaries. Locals at the time asked for a narrow river so that it would be cheaper to build the bridges while also preserving more developable land.
“In order to make the system work well, they designed it so that it flowed very fast so — the system flows much faster than a natural stream would flow,” Sweeten said. “Which is why it's dangerous for people to stand on the concrete in the L.A. River, because water up to your ankle is capable of knocking you off your feet.”
Up in the mountains
So far, snow levels have been quite high, mostly above 7,000 feet. They'll fall to about 5,500 feet by Monday night, bringing snow to popular mountain areas.
Big Bear could see 6 to 8 inches, while Wrightwood could see 12 to 18 inches.
New Snow Alert: 2 more inches overnight reported on 2.4.24 bringing the 3-day total to 19". Snow expected through the week. Snow chains are in effect.
Higher mountain peaks like San Jacinto (10,834 feet) could get around 1 to 3 feet of snow, while Mt. San Antonio (10,064 feet) could get 4 to 6 feet.
The eastern San Gabriel mountains and the San Bernardino County mountains are under a winter storm warning until 10 p.m. Tuesday for areas above 6,000 feet.
Travel is expected to be difficult, if not impossible. Higher mountains could see winds up to 70 mph, which can damage trees and knock them onto roadways. If you must head in or around these areas, pack emergency supplies in your car just in case.
The Mount Wilson observatory closed Saturday until further notice because of the weather. Mountain High Resort was also closed Monday, but is expected to reopen on Tuesday.
The Angeles National Forest is urging people to stay away from the area at least for the next few days. Very hazardous conditions are expected, including heavy rain, fast-moving landslides, snow, and flooding.
Evacuations
Los Angeles County
An evacuation order is in effect for homes and businesses along La Tuna Canyon Road near the burn scars from the Land Fire in 2022. More info here.
Evacuation order was issued Saturday night through 6 p.m. Tuesday, Feb. 6, for the area of Topanga Canyon along Santa Maria Road north of Topanga Canyon Boulevard in the Owen Fire burn scar. Officials said: "Immediate threat to life. This is a lawful order to leave now. The area is lawfully closed to public access."
Evacuation order for the Agua Fire Burn Area in Soledad Canyon, east of Acton.
Evacuation warnings are in effect Sunday morning through 6 p.m. on Tuesday, Feb. 6, for areas near the Bobcat Fire (north end) and Lake Fire burn scars.
An evacuation warningis in effect Sunday afternoon through 10 a.m. on Tuesday, Feb. 6 for the area in the Fish Fire burn scar in the city of Duarte.
Evacuation warnings are also in effect Monday afternoon through 11:59 p.m. on Tuesday, Feb. 6 for areas of Culver City’s Upper Crest area due to potential mud or debris flows. The city is asking people who live above, below, or adjacent to a hillside in or below the Upper Crest neighborhood to take extra precautions.
A voluntary evacuation warning was issued for Silverado Canyon, Williams Canyon and Trabuco Canyons due to heavy rains.
Canyon residents were strongly encouraged to prepare and voluntarily evacuate on Sunday, especially those with disabilities, access and/or functional needs, and canyon residents with large animals.
From the Yucaipa Police Department: Evacuation warning due to potential mud and debris flow for El Dorado and Apple fire burn scars.
Schools
Los Angeles Unified School District announced that all schools will be open on Monday with the exception of Topanga Elementary Charter and Vinedale College Preparatory Academy. Topanga students may report to Woodland Hills academy at 8001 Ledge Avenue in Sun Valley, while Vinedale students may report to Glenwood Elementary School.
Santa Monica and Malibu Unified schools are expected to open Tuesday.
Long Beach Unified released this statement on Sunday afternoon: "While there are currently no plans to close schools, in the event of any impacts or changes to scheduled plans, families from the affected schools will receive direct communication via text and email. Additionally, updates will be promptly posted on the school websites and social media platforms."
Santa Barbara Unified and Santa Maria Joint Union High School District have both preemptively cancelled classes and activities for Monday.
Universities
UCLA- Normal operations. Classes will occur as usual
USC- Normal operations. Classes will occur as usual
Cal State Fullerton is pivoting to remote classes on Monday. Staff are encouraged to work remotely. The faculty will have access to offices and facilities as the campus will remain open.
UC Santa Barbara has instructed faculty to move to remote instruction or reschedule classes. Any staff impacted by weather (including if a child’s school closes) should be allowed to work remotely or “request time off”
Cal State Long Beach said it expects normal operations and classes to resume on Tuesday.
Cal Poly Pomona is moving to remote classes and remote work for non-essential employees on Monday. The university says "The campus will remain open and minimally staffed, including University Housing, the Library, Centerpointe and student health services. We will provide an update via email and on the safety and emergency web page by the end of business on Monday regarding operating plans for Tuesday, February 6, 2024."
Cal State Northridge remains open, but on-campus in-person classes are cancelled. Course instructors will determine whether courses will shift to online instruction or alternative assignments.
The forecast for coming days, as of Sunday morning.
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Courtesy National Weather Service
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Here's what rainfall totals are forecast to be in coming days:
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Courtesy NWS San Diego
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High winds are also expected to be an issue:
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Emergency proclamations and preparation
The powerful storm moved L.A. County Supervisor Lindsey Horvath to sign an emergency proclamation Sunday night for the region. She said the move will align the county with Gov. Gavin Newsom’s emergency order and help the county act quickly to deploy resources.
“We had to proclaim a local emergency today following the governor’s statewide emergency declaration. We wouldn’t do that if this was something to ignore,” Horvath said.
San Bernardino County also declared a state of emergency Sunday night in anticipation of extreme rain and snow expected through Wednesday.
“This declaration puts the state and federal government on notice that our residents will need their help,” said San Bernadino County Supervisor Dawn Rowe.
L.A. Mayor Karen Bass said the city is prepared to weather the effects of a potentially catastrophic storm. Bass declared a local state of emergency on Monday.
“This has been a tough day for our city,” Bass said Monday evening.
A man and his dog were rescued from the Pacoima Wash near Foothill Boulevard via helicopter after he jumped into the water after his dog. LAFD Fire Chief Kristen Crowley said both the man and the dog are safe now.
Bass said more than 100 unhoused people had to be evacuated from a tiny home complex. She added that they’re being moved into a nearby shelter that wasn’t being used, but now will be “instantly” filled.
Bass also answered a call from President Joe Biden towards the end of Monday’s news conference and held the phone up to the microphone so he could speak to the people of Los Angeles.
“We’ll get any help on the way as soon as you guys request it, so just let me know,” Biden said.
Mandatory evacuations have been issued for certain areas of L.A. and Santa Barbara counties.
Why LAUSD plans to be open Monday
L.A. Unified Superintendent Alberto Carvalho said based on Monday's forecast, schools will remain open tomorrow morning, unless weather conditions change. District officials said they issue an update at 6 a.m. Monday.
Carvalho said in a news conference Sunday that the schools will remain open because "they are the places where many of our kids receive their nutrition."
However, Vinedale Elementary School, which is in an area in Sun Valley that is under mandatory evacuation, will be shut down. Students will report to Glenwood Elementary School about a mile away.
Heavy rains are expected to continue through Monday morning, with some of the most intense downpours expected between 2 a.m. and 3 a.m.. The National Weather Service is warning of "life threatening flooding, damaging winds and heavy mountain snow," and has revised the expected rain totals to up to 8 inches across the greater L.A., and up to 14 inches in the mountains and foothills, through Tuesday.
"Los Angeles County now seems to be the area of most concern where the heaviest rain will last the longest," said Ryan Kittell at the National Weather Service.
Flooding and other dangers are expected for across the state. California officials warned that the Southern California coastline — including Los Angeles and San Diego metro areas — would likely see the most severe damage.
"These next storms are going to be impactful and dangerous, and most of the damaging impacts most likely to our coastal and southern regions," said Nancy Ward, director of the California Governor's Office of Emergency Services. "They're the most dangerous natural disasters that we have, killing more people from storm damages and flooding than wildfires every year."
More ahead
Residents in mountain, canyon and coastal areas should prepare for the risk of debris flows and flooding to remain at least through Tuesday.
Those in landslide prone areas like the Palos Verdes Peninsula should be on the lookout for indications of land movement, including the formation of new cracks, the fracturing of underground utilities, doors and windows falling out of plumb and sounds of creaks and groans coming from the ground.
Los Angeles County Fire Department locations also have sandbags and sand.
Sand and sandbags are available at these locations in Orange County.
Significant snowfall expected for #SoCal thru Tue.
- 2 to 4 feet above 7000 ft - 10-20 inches between 6000 and 7000 ft - Up to 10 inches between 5000 and 6000 ft - Wind gusts up to around 90 MPH -WINTER STORM WARNINGS in effect thru Tue#CAwxpic.twitter.com/iKjqJPN7Ss
Here’s an excerpt from our guide to understanding flood warnings, if any are issued:
Flood advisories are how the NWS begins to raise the alarm. The goal is to give people enough time to take action.
Flood watches are your indicators to get prepared to move.
Aflood warning is issued when a hazardous weather event is imminent or already happening. When one is issued for your area, you need to get to higher ground immediately.
A flash flood warning is issued when a flash flood is coming or in progress. Flash floods are sudden and violent floods that can start within minutes.
If you're in L.A. County and need sand bags you can find some at local fire houses.
Staying safe when the winds are high
Watch for traffic signals that may be out. Approach those intersections as four-way stops.
Make sure you have a battery-operated radio and flashlights. Check the batteries to make sure they are fresh. Use flashlights for lighting during a power outage; do not use candles because they may pose a significant fire hazard.
If you’re in a vehicle with a fallen power line on it, stay in the vehicle and remain calm until help arrives. It is OK to use your cellphone to call 911. If you must leave the vehicle, remember to exit away from downed power lines and exit by jumping from the vehicle and landing with both feet together. You must not touch the vehicle and the ground at the same time. Then proceed away from the vehicle by shuffling and not picking up your feet until you are several yards away.
Water and electricity don’t mix. Water is an excellent conductor of electricity. Do not step in or enter any water that a downed power line may be touching.
Do not use any equipment inside that is designed for outdoor heating or cooking. Such equipment can emit carbon monoxide and other toxic gases.
If you use a generator, place it outdoors and plug individual appliances directly into it, using a heavy-duty extension cord. Connecting generators directly to household circuits creates “backfeed,” which is dangerous to repair crews.
Leave the doors of your refrigerator and freezer closed to keep food as fresh as possible. Place blocks of ice inside to help keep food cold. Check food carefully for signs of spoilage.
Check on your neighbors to make sure everyone is safe.
Tips on staying warm
State law requires residential units to have heating systems that can keep indoor temperatures at a minimum of 70 degrees. That means every dwelling unit and guest room offered for rent or lease should offer heating equipment, usually central air conditioning (A/C) or a wall heater. — Caitlin Hernández
Use heat smartly to save money: Cranking things like the A/C and wall heaters can be expensive. If money is tight, be judicious about how and when you use your utilities. For example, only use heaters at night or only set the thermostat to around 70 degrees.
Open and close those vents: If you have central A/C, look at where the vents are around your home. Are any open in places where you don’t stay long? Practice opening and closing those so warm air only goes where you need it (most vents should have a small toggle lever). Humidifiers can also help you warm things up — and it’s useful to add moisture into our dry air.
Adjust your wall heaters: If you have a wall heater, you can change the output by adjusting the knob (usually at the bottom). Since wall heaters can only warm the areas where they’re placed, it’s essential to close doors to rooms you won’t be in so hot air doesn’t get wasted.
Turn on your ceiling fan (really): If you have a ceiling fan, try turning it on. This sounds counterintuitive, but there’s science behind it. The direction a fan turns can push air in different directions, and since hot air floats up, you’ll want to move that around. Your fan should spin clockwise to create an updraft to circulate. Not all fans will have this option, though.
George Kiriyama, a senior editor, is tracking the storm and adding updates along with Kevin Tidmarsh, a producer, and Fiona Ng, LAist's weekend editor. Other LAist staff members will be keeping a close eye on how the storm is affecting various parts of the region.
This is a developing story. We fact check everything and rely only on information from credible sources (think fire, police, government officials and reporters on the ground). Sometimes, however, we make mistakes and/or initial reports turn out to be wrong. In all cases, we strive to bring you the most accurate information in real time and will update this story as new information becomes available.
Flames, and smoke can be triggered by remote control at the new Ventura County Fire Department Life Fire Training Complex in Camarillo, to create simulated firefighting experiences.
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Lance Orozco
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KCLU
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Topline:
While the flames and smoke are real, the danger is not. This is the Ventura County Fire Department’s new Live Fire Training Complex. A firefighter is controlling the flames and smoke with what looks like a TV remote control.
What is it? The $32 million project includes live fire training buildings, a dedicated ladder training prop, and other facilities designed to give firefighters hands-on experience.
What's next? While the Ventura County Fire Department owns and operates the facility, the goal is for it to be used to train first responders from throughout the region. It’s already hosted firefighters from a number of other agencies in the county, as well as teams from neighboring counties.
Read on ... for more on the new facility.
A room on the second floor of a Camarillo building is quickly filling with smoke. From the far end of the room, flames start to shoot across the ceiling.
While the flames and smoke are real, the danger is not.
This is the Ventura County Fire Department’s new Live Fire Training Complex. A firefighter is controlling the flames and smoke with what looks like a TV remote control.
The $32 million project includes live fire training buildings, a dedicated ladder training prop, and other facilities designed to give firefighters hands-on experience.
"This complex has a 'Class A' combustible burn building, which we are standing in now," said Ventura County Fire Department Training Chief Casey Rosdaile. "The 'Class B' building is propane-fed. This building allows us to train in real fire conditions and real fire behavior. That building (the 'Class B' building) allows us to do a lot more of the operational steps. There's always a gap between the simulated thing and a real thing, and we're trying to limit that as much as possible. That way, when someone trains, they aren't going to be the real thing and say that it's nothing like they practiced."
The buildings are made of concrete, so they won't be affected by the flames and smoke. The smoke kind that's used on movie shoots, so it doesn't leave clothing with the smoky smell like you get from a brush fire.
He added that the new facilities can help train firefighters, as well as other first responders, on ways to deal with a number of emergencies.
"These buildings can host anything from sheriff's operations to (simulated) structure fires, to search and rescue," said Rosdaile. "There are a million things you can do in here. You can train 50 to 60 firefighters at a time, so it really gives us a lot of flexibility."
The two new buildings are just part of the fire department’s fire training complex. It covers 22 acres of land on the southeast side of Camarillo Airport. There are nearly 18,000 square feet of indoor training space, with 32 training rooms.
The dedicated live fire training buildings give firefighters experience with scenarios that were often difficult and time-consuming to create.
"We would light the materials, and let the fire conditions and environment build, to create a realistic training environment, and then send the folks in to extinguish it," said Ventura County Fire Chief Dustin Gardner. "Then, we would have to clean it all out, and reset it, and start again. We would get a couple of burns a day done. Now, we're getting multiple burns an hour."
Gardner said it's a complex they've sought to create for years.
"This facility allows us to close the gap between training and reality. This allows us to expose our firefighters to as realistic an environment as we can repetitively, and under safe conditions."
Among the props at the facility is a vehicle chassis equipped with gas lines, which can be ignited, so firefighters can practice fighting those types of fires.
"This is our vehicle prop, and it lets us simulate fire. We can push the fire to different parts of the vehicle, so we can set it in the interior, in the cab, the wheel well, as well as the engine compartment," said Ventura County Fire Department Quartermaster Jake Finley. "It creates a good learning environment, with teachable moments. You can see in the background some of the old vehicles (we used to burn salvaged vehicles), and it was a really intensive process. We couldn't repeat it as quickly."
While the Ventura County Fire Department owns and operates the facility, the goal is for it to be used to train first responders from throughout the region. It’s already hosted firefighters from a number of other agencies in the county, as well as teams from neighboring counties.
A worker spreads fertilizer after planting potatoes at Bluff View Farms on April 24 in West Jefferson, North Carolina. High fertilizer prices due to the war in Iran have hit farms already dealing with severe weather, tariffs and the high costs of fuel and labor.
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Getty Images
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Topline:
Before the war, around one-third of the world's fertilizer transported by sea passed through the Strait of Hormuz, according to UN Trade and Development. The waterway has become a shipping chokepoint in recent months.
Why it matters: With the strait closed, fertilizer shipments from the Persian Gulf slumped and prices rose, affecting countries all around the world that import fertilizer. The war also created a global shortage of natural gas, a key component in nitrogen fertilizer manufacturing.
What about US food prices? It caused a massive headache for U.S. farmers who were hit with higher fertilizer prices and limited availability just as they were deciding what to plant for the upcoming growing season.
But the costs borne by farmers don't necessarily get passed on to consumers, and food system experts say they're unlikely to have a major impact on the retail prices of fruit and vegetables.
Read on ... for more on the potential fertilizer shortage.
When the war with Iran started, one of the top economic concerns globally was the slowdown of oil shipments. But there was another critical export that got stuck in the region when hostilities began: fertilizer.
Before the war, around one-third of the world's fertilizer transported by sea passed through the Strait of Hormuz, according to UN Trade and Development. The waterway has become a shipping chokepoint in recent months.
With the strait closed, fertilizer shipments from the Persian Gulf slumped and prices rose, affecting countries all around the world that import fertilizer. The war also created a global shortage of natural gas, a key component in nitrogen fertilizer manufacturing.
It caused a massive headache for U.S. farmers who were hit with higher fertilizer prices and limited availability just as they were deciding what to plant for the upcoming growing season.
But the costs borne by farmers don't necessarily get passed on to consumers, and food system experts say they're unlikely to have a major impact on the retail prices of fruit and vegetables.
"Consumers are going to see higher food prices come September to January, once harvests start coming in, and the few months thereafter," said Chris Barrett, a professor of agricultural economics at Cornell University. "Very little of that is going to be directly attributable to fertilizer."
That's because food inflation is generally driven by larger factors affecting multiple parts of the food supply chain, such as fewer workers and high fuel costs.
US farmers are rethinking their plans
About one-third of the fertilizer used by U.S. farmers is imported, according to The Fertilizer Institute, an industry trade group. TFI Vice President of Public Affairs Christopher Glen said little of that comes through the Strait of Hormuz.
"But we get impacted in a big way because the fertilizer market is global," Glen said over email. "Even if those tons from the Mideast aren't coming to the US, they are still tons that have been removed from the market and need to be made up elsewhere. That's where the pressure comes from."
An American Farm Bureau Federation survey released in April reported that 70% of respondents said they couldn't afford all the fertilizer they needed this season.
Some farmers are more vulnerable to price swings than others. Producers of corn and wheat, which rely heavily on fertilizer, can spend around a third of their operating costs on fertilizer alone. Half of the farmers who responded to a survey released by the National Corn Growers Association in early April said they wouldn't apply the full amount of fertilizer to their corn crop this year, due largely to higher costs and limited availability.
Because farmers often secure their fertilizer stores well before a growing season begins, some weren't seriously affected by the price swings created by the war in Iran. (Iran said it closed the Strait of Hormuz shortly after it was attacked by the U.S. and Israel at the end of February. U.S. corn growing season typically begins in April.) But they are worried about the future: corn growers who responded to the survey were twice as concerned about the 2027 corn crop as they were about this year's.
This season, some farmers may opt to plant crops that require less nitrogen fertilizer than corn, such as soy beans, in response to rising costs.
According to USDA data, farmers are expected to plant 95.3 million acres of corn this year, down from 98.8 million acres last year. But the total acreage of soybeans is predicted to rise to 85.4 million acres this year from 81.2 million acres last year.
US grocery prices probably won't take a huge hit
If higher fertilizer costs lead to smaller harvests, that could contribute to modest retail price hikes. A TD Economics analysis estimated that a 2-5% production shortfall in North America could grow food inflation by around 0.1-0.5 percentage points in 2027.
Sponsor MessageBut experts say the costs of the fertilizer shortage will be largely shouldered by farmers.
The amount a farmer spends on fertilizer is a small fraction of the total cost to grow food and get it to grocery store shelves. Just 12 cents of every dollar U.S. consumers spend on food goes to farms, while the rest is received by transportation companies, processors, wholesalers and grocery stores, according to the USDA. And the USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service reported that U.S. farms spent around 7% of their budgets on fertilizer, lime and soil conditioners in 2024 (though farmers growing crops more reliant on fertilizer such as corn would spend more).
Additionally, farmers don't have much bargaining power to negotiate with wholesalers for higher crop prices when their operating costs rise, according to Rob Vos, a senior research fellow at the International Food Policy Research Institute. "Those buyers will go to other farmers to try and get it cheaper," he said.
But there are factors other than the fertilizer crunch that are more likely to cause food prices to jump. Barrett said the global food industry is facing a "really unpleasant layer cake" of pressures, from tariffs and extreme weather to higher prices on labor, fuel and fertilizer.
"No one of those by itself is especially painful," he said. "But when you add them all up, they become quite painful together."
In parts of Africa and Asia, the effects of the fertilizer shortage could be far worse. Jorge Moreira da Silva, Executive Director of the UN Office for Project Services, said in April that the reduction of shipments through the Strait of Hormuz may prove "very significant and severe" for poorer countries. Less-developed countries that rely heavily on fertilizer from the Persian Gulf include Sudan, Sri Lanka, Tanzania and Somalia.
The fertilizer industry is recovering — and may adapt in the process
Some fertilizer prices have begun to fall again in recent weeks, after the U.S. and Iran reached a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz last month.
The Trump administration has also taken steps to lower fertilizer costs for American farmers. This week, Trump temporarily suspended "countervailing duties" on certain phosphate imports, which are added to some imported goods to cancel out subsidies provided by foreign governments.
Still, it will be a while before the fertilizer sector returns to normal. Vos estimated that it could take weeks or months for fertilizer manufacturing plants to come back online and return to previous production levels. If high prices stick around, that could snarl the plans of U.S. farmers preparing to plant cool-season crops this autumn, he added.
Barrett said the trouble with the fertilizer industry has also gotten farmers thinking about how they can protect themselves from these kinds of supply-chain disruptions in the future and looking for other ways to replenish their soil, such as manure, compost and cover crops.
"Just like we're seeing more people interested in electric vehicles because the price of gasoline and diesel has gone up, you see more farmers interested in other ways of replenishing soil nutrients as the price of fertilizer has gone up," he said.
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An illustration of the Boston Tea Party, when colonists dumped British East India Company tea into the harbor on Dec. 16, 1773. Some accounts say this marked a pivotal moment when Americans started loving coffee. But one historian says Americans were drinking lots of coffee before then.
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Topline:
Coffee was an important part of American culture from the start. And coffeehouses were essential, too — serving as hubs for brewing ideas of independence.
Backstory: "The first documented example of a mortar and pestle used to grind coffee beans was on the Mayflower" in 1620, says historian Michelle Craig McDonald, the author of Coffee Nation: How One Commodity Transformed the Early United States.
How it helped the Revolution: In the colonial era, coffeehouses were hotbeds for seditious thought — where people planned acts of revolution.
"Coffeehouses are kind of famous for being places where people think and plot things," says Mark Pendergrast, author of Uncommon Grounds: The History of Coffee and How It Transformed Our World.
Read on ... for more on the historical influence of coffee in the founding of the United States.
A consequential act of defiance secured tea's place as perhaps the most iconic beverage of America's colonial era.
The Boston Tea Party became an essential ingredient in the recipe for revolution in the following years.
But tea wasn't the only hot beverage with a prominent role in America's fight for independence.
Coffee was an important part of American culture from the start. And coffeehouses were essential, too — serving as hubs for brewing ideas of independence.
As the United States celebrates 250 years, here's what to know about America's early history of coffee.
Colonists were drinking coffee long before the United States existed
Europeans brought coffee with them when they came to America.
"The first documented example of a mortar and pestle used to grind coffee beans was on the Mayflower" in 1620, says historian Michelle Craig McDonald, the author of Coffee Nation: How One Commodity Transformed the Early United States.
"The fact that coffee was present so early is not surprising if you think about it," McDonald says. "A number of those who were on the Mayflower came to North America from Amsterdam, which was a major coffee trading center in Western Europe by the 17th century."
The first coffeehouse in the colonies opened in 1676 in Boston, a century before the U.S. declared independence, she says. Some taverns sold coffee even earlier.
The Boston Tea Party probably wasn't the dramatic turning point toward coffee that some claim
On the night of Dec. 16, 1773, disgruntled colonists boarded three ships moored in Boston Harbor and threw overboard more than 92,000 pounds of tea owned by the British East India Company.
Tensions had been building between the Crown and the colonies over the previous decade, as Britain tried to levy taxes on its colonies to recoup war debts.
The Boston Tea Party protest was targeted at the British government's passing of the Tea Act in 1773, which granted the East India Company a monopoly over tea sales in the colonies. While the British had removed some unpopular taxes in the preceding years, they left tea taxes in place. Colonial merchants were especially upset that the act allowed the East India Company to undercut their tea business.
To build solidarity for their cause of sovereignty, some patriots called on colonialists to swear off tea in favor of coffee. It's why many histories point to the Boston Tea Party as a turning point when Americans switched from mostly drinking tea to mostly coffee. The anti-tea sentiment was immortalized in a founding father's now-famous letter.
In July 1774, John Adams (before he became the second U.S. president) wrote to his wife Abigail, recounting an incident during his travels. After a long day, he asked the proprietor of the house where he was lodging for a cup of tea, provided it was smuggled and free of British taxes.
" 'No sir, said she, we have renounced all Tea in this Place. I cant make Tea, but I'le make you Coffee.' Accordingly I have drank Coffee every Afternoon since, and have borne it very well. Tea must be universally renounced. I must be weaned, and the sooner, the better," Adams wrote.
Despite John Adams claiming a newfound patriotic duty to appreciate coffee, McDonald says colonists had been drinking lots of coffee all along.
She studied advertisements from the 1760s and '70s to estimate how many shops sold coffee versus tea. Even before the Boston Tea Party, she says, "coffee is definitely more broadly available than tea is."
A big reason? It was cheaper. "Its price again per pound is significantly less, which tells you about its availability, its accessibility to drinkers."
Historians say it's hard to definitively compare tea with coffee consumption, though, as official records from before America gained independence were inconsistent.
And smuggling was rampant, making official records even less reliable.
"There is a vast amount of smuggling," says Joyce Chaplin, a professor of early American history at Harvard University. "So they're not paying formal duties on tea that they get from the Dutch. They're probably not paying formal duties on coffee from the French Caribbean."
And Chaplin notes that people who loudly proclaimed a new appreciation for coffee over tea weren't always doing what they said. It could have been political pandering. "I do not drink tea that comes via the East India Company," she posits someone of the era saying. "But, you know, other sources are fine. Ditto for the coffee."
Coffeehouses were a hub for revolutionary ideas
In the colonial era, coffeehouses were hotbeds for seditious thought — where people planned acts of revolution.
"Coffeehouses are kind of famous for being places where people think and plot things," says Mark Pendergrast, author of Uncommon Grounds: The History of Coffee and How It Transformed Our World.
A coffeehouse called the Green Dragon served as one of the locations for planning the Boston Tea Party. Years earlier, the Old London Coffeehouse in Philadelphia was a meeting place for strategizing responses to another British tax, the Stamp Act of 1765.
In Britain, coffeehouses were nicknamed "penny universities," Pendergrast says: "because for a penny you could go and learn a whole lot by sitting around in a coffeehouse and discussing everything." The same attitude traveled across the Atlantic.
Early American coffeehouses would commonly have city business directories, libraries of newspapers and currency exchange information. People could get maritime insurance there or buy things at auction.
"There's a reason why coffeehouses become places of colonial protest… in the 1760s, in the 1770s, and it's because it is the place where traders and merchants tended to gather," historian McDonald says. "That's where they heard about the economics of the day."
Taverns were more likely than coffeehouses to have rooms for rent and stables for travelers' horses. They were also more likely to have food.
Interestingly enough, coffeehouses could serve alcohol and taverns could serve coffee.
But the vibes at each were different. While women and men could "riotously drink together" in taverns, coffeehouses often didn't allow women, according to Chaplin of Harvard.
"The sense was the coffeehouse was the place where you had a clear head — to argue about politics, to find out what was going on in the business world, to cut a business deal," she says. "Whereas taverns were places where, in a sense, you refueled."
Still, she says, the lines between the two "weren't completely clear."
The cost of America's revolutionary drink
Coffee (and tea for that matter) was part of a growing globalization of trade around this time.
Much of the coffee in the colonies was grown in the Caribbean, while tea came from China.
Supply was up and coffee was easier than ever to drink. "Trade and frankly, imperialism, are making it possible for … colonial products to be produced and transferred to other parts of the world in greater and greater quantities," says Chaplin.
As a result, by the time of the American Revolution, both coffee and tea were in reach for many common people. "They're both becoming affordable luxuries," Chaplin says.
Fancy coffee and tea paraphernalia were also part of this increasingly global market. Middle and upper-class people would have wanted special implements for drinking these beverages and a place to drink it. That meant they needed wood for coffee tables, silver for coffeepots, and porcelain for teapots.
"These two beverages are encouraging people to consume all kinds of new stuff," says Chaplin. "The mahogany that comes out of the Caribbean, the china coming out of China, silver that is mined principally in South and Central America and processed in a lot of the parts of the world."
There's a dark side to coffee's history, too. The plantations that supplied the crop ran on the labor of enslaved people. By 1790, half of the world's coffee was being grown in the French colony of Saint-Domingue, in what is today Haiti, Pendergrast says, where slaves were routinely mistreated, raped and murdered.
The Declaration of Independence, signed in 1776, is infamous for a contradiction. It proclaimed that "all men are created equal," but failed to acknowledge the hundreds of thousands of enslaved people living in America at the time.
Coffee carried a similar contradiction. The beverage that fueled conversations that inspired America's fight for independence — centered on the ideals of life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness — depended on enslavement.
"Coffee had this paradoxical effect, that it did promote revolutionary thought," Pendergrast says. "But it was also grown by slaves."
Emmanuel Carrera Ruedas gathers water samples from the L.A. River on Wednesday, July 1.
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Steve Saldivar
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The LA Local
)
Topline:
Since the Lineage fire ignited June 17 in Boyle Heights, residents, environmental advocates and researchers have taken it upon themselves to find out what’s in the air and water.
Why it matters: They’ve launched their own sampling efforts, seeking answers about what people have been breathing and contaminants that may have entered the L.A. River.
Why now: The community-led testing comes as residents have reported eye irritation, nausea and headaches while questioning whether the government has done enough to capture the fire’s environmental and public health impacts.
The backstory: Those concerns are especially alarming in Boyle Heights, East L.A. and neighboring Southeast L.A. communities, where neighbors have long faced disproportionate pollution burdens.
Read on... for more on how residents are taking matters into their own hands.
Wearing gloves and a KN95 mask, Emmanuel Carrera Ruedas hunkered down near a storm drain, just steps away from the smoldering Lineage warehouse fire, as he filmed himself pointing to what he described as insulation and foam flowing into the drain.
“The thing about this water is that it all gets dumped straight into the L.A. River,” Carrera Ruedas, of Cudahy, told his Instagram followers in a June 22 reel.
In the past two weeks, Carrera Ruedas has spent evenings gathering water samples outside Lineage and from the L.A. River as he and other community scientists are partnering with experts from UCLA and Columbia University to learn what’s in the runoff. Samples will soon be sent to a lab in New York.
“For far too long, the river has just been a drainage, a dumping site for companies,” said Carrera Ruedas, 27, who often encounters toads, birds and fish inhabiting its ecosystem.
“There is life in there,” he told Boyle Heights Beat. “We’re all in proximity to the river, and that’s kind of the vein that runs through the city that really connects us all.”
Community-led testing
Since the Lineage fire ignited June 17 in Boyle Heights, residents, environmental advocates and researchers have taken it upon themselves to find out what’s in the air and water. They’ve launched their own sampling efforts, seeking answers about what people have been breathing and contaminants that may have entered the L.A. River.
The community-led testing comes as residents have reported eye irritation, nausea and headaches while questioning whether the government has done enough to capture the fire’s environmental and public health impacts.
Those concerns are especially alarming in Boyle Heights, East L.A. and neighboring Southeast L.A. communities, where neighbors have long faced disproportionate pollution burdens.
Crews navigate around piles of debris and puddles of water on the eastern edge of the Lineage warehouse as they begin cleanup efforts on June 25, 2026.
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Andrew Lopez
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Boyle Heights Beat
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An estimated 31,700 workers, about 81% of whom are Latino, live in the county and city zones where a smoke advisory was issued, according to new data from the UCLA Latino Policy & Politics Institute. They work in health care, manufacturing and food service industries. About half of the workers earn $3,333 or less a month, below L.A. County’s “very low income” threshold.
The area also experiences diesel pollution levels three times the county average, as well as higher rates of asthma and cardiovascular disease-related emergency department visits, according to UCLA. Nearly 10,000 households in the area lack air conditioning.
“This is not only an air quality emergency but also a worker and environmental justice issue,” UCLA said.
Behind the push for environmental justice
For years, East Yard Communities for Environmental Justice has shed light on how Latinos on the Eastside often bear the brunt of the region’s pollution and climate disasters, such as the East L.A. oil spill in late May that dumped nearly 25,000 gallons of crude oil onto streets and into the L.A. River. For the organization, “We are just trying to breathe” is a common phrase.
“Something I’ve told many people over a long period of time is, ‘We’re not polar bears. We’re not whales.’ Nobody is coming to save us. We have to step up and defend ourselves,” said mark! Lopez with East Yard Communities for Environmental Justice.
Antonia Castillo, 73, helps her grandson Aiden Velez put on a mask near their Boyle Heights home.
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Andrew Lopez
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Boyle Heights Beat
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East Yard members opted to take air samples themselves, dissatisfied with the South Coast Air Quality Management District’s assessment of the fire’s air-quality impacts. They placed sorbent tubes, which Lopez described as passive air monitors, outside nearby homes for about seven days. Soon, they’ll send the findings to a Columbia University lab with the help of UC Irvine.
What officials have done so far
South Coast AQMD said it conducted “mobile monitoring” during the first two days of the fire that found “significantly elevated concentrations” of particulate matter. The agency then deployed particulate matter monitors at Eastman Avenue Elementary and Robert Louis Stevenson Middle School that provide “near-real time exposure information.” AQMD noted that the L.A. Fire Department and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency conducted their own monitoring, while third-party contractor Onterris has continued monitoring during the cleanup phase.
AQMD also observed smoke impacts throughout the region, issuing a particle pollution advisory in English and Spanish that remained in effect through June 24.
What's next and lingering questions
Meanwhile, Lopez said more sampling is necessary, and he questioned the effectiveness of efforts by Lineage, AQMD and LAFD. He and other advocates criticized public statements from officials, including Mayor Karen Bass’ assurances that “the air is not dangerous,” even as residents were reporting feeling sick. He also took aim at LAFD Chief Jaime Moore’s statements that ammonia was not toxic to individuals unless they had respiratory issues or came in direct contact with it. East Yard also called for evacuations in the area.
“It feels like at the city and county level they don’t currently have the capacity to really handle this situation,” Lopez added. “I think it really requires state and federal intervention to make sure that the cleanup and restoration isn’t mismanaged.”
Yoshira “Yoshi” Ornelas Van Horne, an exposure scientist and assistant professor with the UCLA Fielding School’s Department of Environmental Health Sciences, said the Lineage fire is exposing how little is done to “respond to public health emergencies and disasters” in communities like Boyle Heights and East L.A., areas “that have so often been referred to as environmental injustice communities.”
Residents and community organizations like East Yard, Ornelas Van Horne said, “are always the ones having to respond.”
“They’re relying on each other. They’re relying on their networks and their organizing power to be able to do that on the ground sampling.”
Ornelas Van Horne reached out to colleagues at Columbia’s Multi-Element Trace Analysis Laboratory in New York after she learned of the sampling taking place and of community concerns about the runoff making its way down to the L.A. River.
Those samples will be analyzed for heavy metals like cadmium, lead and arsenic, she said.
The L.A. County Public Works Department, according to the Los Angeles Times, deployed three containment booms on the L.A. River and continued to monitor the water as it made its way to the ocean.
Carrera Ruedas began collecting water samples on the third day of the fire. He said he took the first sample from the L.A. River, about 100 meters from the spout where it spilled out. The second was taken from outside Lineage. He has amassed dozens of samples since then.
Cudahy sits alongside the lower L.A. River, and after the fire, Carrera Ruedas recalled a “heavy stench that affected people in our community.” The trash he saw in the river was the foam and insulation that came from Lineage, he said.
“It really pissed me off, just to see all this trash go in there and nobody doing anything about it,” said Carrera Ruedas, who also serves as the parks and environmental justice commissioner for Cudahy.
The L.A. River, Carrera Ruedas said, is “part of our ecosystem.”
“This is not just affecting me. This affects everybody else around me. This affects people who love the beach, people who just want our water systems clean,” he said.
