The Brief

'Tis the season to be jolly. That is, unless you're a worker who was banking on getting a seasonal job and haven't been able to find one this season.

Every year, American retailers hire extra help as the holiday shopping season approaches. In recent years, these jobs have numbered roughly around half a million per season. These seasonal jobs run the gamut. Think temporary cashiers, gift wrappers, sales associates, greeters, merchandisers, warehouse unloaders, delivery drivers.

But the quintessential — and most iconic — seasonal worker has got to be… Santa Claus. In addition to sliding down chimneys to deliver presents on Christmas, Jolly Old Saint Nicholas takes gigs at places like malls, department stores, corporate events, and private parties in the weeks leading up to Dec. 25.

However, this year, Santa may be making fewer trips from the North Pole than in years past. As we report in this week's Planet Money newsletter, demand for professional Santas seems to have cooled. It's one small part of a broader decline in the demand for seasonal workers this holiday season. It got us wondering how the market for Santas fluctuates with the business cycle, which sectors of the Santa market are recession-proof, and whether a decline in Santa demand this season could be a sign that the U.S. economy is going down the chimney.

The Grinch that stole Santa visits

Mitch Allen is the founder and "Head Elf" at Hire Santa, an agency that provides Santas for holiday events around the nation and world (we talked to Allen in a past Planet Money newsletter). Allen estimates there are probably around nine or ten thousand professional or "near professional" Santa Clauses in the United States.

Sure, Allen says, his company may occasionally get requests for Santa at "Christmas in July"-style events, when Santa shows up in a Hawaiian shirt and flip flops. But, no surprise, prime time for his business is right now. He says demand for Santa typically begins in early November, picks up steam on weekends in December and explodes the week before Christmas, especially on Christmas Eve. "It really falls off after Christmas Eve, like midnight Christmas Eve," Allen says.

Allen says he's seeing less demand for Santa visits this season. His leading indicator for Santa demand is what he calls "leads," or inquiries to his business to book Santa at events. On that metric, he says, "we're down almost 27% year to date, compared with last year. And last year was down compared with the year before."

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Shea Cannon Photography

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Hire Santa

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My family has experienced this decline in Santa appearances first hand. Last year, when our son was about 15 months old, we took him for his first time to sit on Santa's lap. A hotel in Lake Tahoe had a public event that served as a toy drive for Toys for Tots. There was festive music, ice skating, skiing, hot chocolate, sleigh rides, and, of course, Santa. To be honest, our son was too young to understand why we were putting him on an old, bearded man's lap, but the whole experience was fun for us parents and we got cute pictures. We wanted to go back this year, but the hotel decided not to host its community event this year. No Santa. Bah, humbug!

Candles in a blackout of official economic statistics

We're living through a weird economic moment right now, with mixed signals about how good or bad the economy is doing. And we just had the longest government shutdown in American history, which not only hurt the economy, but basically created a blackout for official economic statistics. Since the end of the shutdown, the Trump administration has delayed and even canceled some economic reports, and we're now all sort of in the dark, trying to figure out what the heck the economy really looks like right now.

But there are some candles illuminating what's going on — and this seeming decline of demand for Santa could be one small one suggesting that the overall economy is sleighing downward. It's part of a broader decline in the demand for seasonal workers this year, something a number of sources have reported in recent weeks. For instance, back in late September, Challenger, Gray, & Christmas, a human-resources firm, released their annual seasonal hiring report. They projected that hiring this holiday retail season would "fall to its lowest point since the recession-hit season of 2009."

Part of the story could be that holiday shopping is increasingly moving online, and brick-and-mortar retailers are struggling and maybe hiring less help. That's an ongoing, long-term structural change to the economy that doesn't say much about whether we're heading into recession. However, there are a number of signs that softened demand for seasonal workers is related more to a broader slowdown in the economy.

Andrew Challenger, a senior vice president at Challenger, Gray, & Christmas, told us we haven't seen a miraculous turnaround in the market for seasonal workers since they issued their projection back in late September. Even more, he says, the broader labor market seems to have only gotten worse since they made their projection. In November, his company, which also tracks layoffs, reported an alarming spike in companies announcing layoffs. That includes prominent online retailers like Amazon and delivery companies like UPS. "So we have two signals, and both are not good for the labor market or seasonal hiring," Challenger says.

Likewise, Indeed Hiring Lab, which leverages the job site Indeed's large amount of data to provide insights about the labor market, recently reported they're also seeing bad news in the job market this season.

"What we're seeing right now in seasonal hiring is kind of a microcosm of what we're seeing in the broader labor market, which is that things are cooling down, things are slowing down," says Cory Stahle, a senior economist at Indeed Hiring Lab.

Is Santa recession-proof?

The National Bureau of Economic Research, the official body that calls recessions, defines a recession as "a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months" (listen to our Planet Money episode, "Recession Referees," for more about this). The lack of official economic statistics for the last few months makes it hard to say whether we're on our way to a recession — or whether we're already in one.

But, while reporting this story, we've found ourselves wondering: could declining demand for Santa visits during the holidays potentially be a recession indicator? Like, can it be a sign we're in a ho-ho-horrible economy? Do paid Santa appearances boom in good economic times and go bust during recessions? Or is demand for Santa fairly recession-proof?

Hire Santa didn't officially launch until 2012 — after the Great Recession — and Head Elf Allen couldn't tell us much about the hard data on how Santa demand fluctuates over the business cycle. Moreover, his business doesn't capture the full market for Santa, including DIY Santas where people buy or rent Santa costumes and do events themselves. But Allen did offer us a theory of how he thinks demand for professional Santas is affected by recessions.

For one, he says, there will always be parts of the economy where demand for Santa is fairly recession-proof. He says that many businesses use Santa appearances to "help drive traffic and associate their brand with Christmas." In this way, a store or mall paying for Santa to sit in a chair and converse with children could be seen as a kind of loss leader, a product or service that costs a company money as a way to attract more customers, nudge them to shop, and help their business make more money. Think like free or cheap alcohol at a casino. Allen says that, even in recessions, certain types of businesses and organizations will always want to hire Santa.

"But I don't think that translates to a company party or a home visit," Allen says. "That's not something that you have to have. You can go to the mall and see Santa. You can go to outdoor stores and see Santa. You can see Santa if you want to. You don't have to have 'em come to your home or office."

Indeed, that's a pattern that Allen believes he's seeing with a cursory look at his company's data. He believes the primary driver of the decline of demand for paid Santa visits is from private holiday parties and events.

"Consumers are not reaching out to have Santa or Mrs. Claus or other holiday entertainers come to their home or office for a Christmas party," Allen says. "And so I view that as like people scaling back their own Christmas plans. They may still be having parties but they're not having sort of blowout parties with Santa and other holiday characters there." Allen pointed to recent reports that companies are laying off workers and that consumer credit card debt is at an all time high. It makes sense why people might be scaling back.

So, yeah, maybe a big decline in Santa appearances could be a recession indicator.

The good news, Allen says, is that, while overall demand is down, he's still seeing plenty of requests for Santa.

In other words, don't worry, Santa is coming to town. There just might be fewer places or times to see him this year.
Copyright 2025 NPR

As Los Angeles homeowners grapple with the expense of rebuilding after last year’s devastating fires, an L.A. City Councilmember is putting forward an idea that could lower some costs.

Councilmember Traci Park, who represents the Pacific Palisades, has introduced a motion to explore waiving part of the city’s portion of the local sales tax for fire victims who purchase rebuilding materials in the city.

The 1% of the local 9.75% sales tax that goes into the city’s general fund would be given back to consumers under the proposal. The waiver could apply to lumber, appliances and other rebuilding goods purchased within the city.

The motion, introduced Friday by Park and seconded by Councilmember John Lee, says: “The City should do everything within its power to alleviate the financial burden for these residents and businesses in order to facilitate their return and stabilize the Pacific Palisades community.”

Would it make much of a difference? 

Economists told LAist the proposal could help many homeowners mitigate the high cost of rebuilding, but likely wouldn’t tip the scales for under-insured, under-resourced property owners.

“It wouldn't hurt if it's very well designed and easy to use,” said Alexander Meeks, a director at the Santa Monica-based Milken Institute. “But I'm not sure if it's really going to tackle the scale of the financial challenge that survivors are facing.”

Meeks noted that the tax waiver wouldn’t lower up-front costs such as environmental testing, architectural design and permitting. And it may not help homeowners sourcing raw materials from outside the city.

Zhiyun Li, a UCLA Anderson School of Management economist, said the waiver could help some homeowners justify the additional cost of rebuilding more fire-safe structures.

“Homeowners must typically pay out of pocket to upgrade to IBHS+ standards, which are more stringent,” Li said. “The tax waiver could encourage upgrading to IBHS+ standards or investing more in mitigation, thereby reducing future risk and improving the likelihood of maintaining insurance coverage.”

What’s next for the proposal? 

The proposed tax relief would not be available to properties that have been sold since the fires started in January 2025.

The motion has been sent to the City Council’s budget and fire recovery committees. If approved by the full council, it would require the city administrative officer, the Office of Finance and the city attorney to report back to the council within 60 days on options for crafting a tax relief plan.

The motion calls for the report to consider factors such as how to minimize the burden of administering the tax relief, what documentation homeowners would have to submit and what it would cost the city to oversee the program.

Senate and House Republican leadership have resurrected a stalled plan to fund the Department of Homeland Security after a record 47-day funding lapse.

House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., and Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., said in a joint statement on Wednesday that the House will take up a measure passed by the Senate last week to fund most of DHS except Immigration and Customs Enforcement and Border Patrol through the end of September.

Republicans would then attempt to fund ICE and Border Patrol for three years using a party-line budget reconciliation bill that would not require support from Democrats.

"In following this two-track approach, the Republican Congress will fully reopen the Department, make sure all federal workers are paid, and specifically fund immigration enforcement and border security for the next three years so that those law-enforcement activities can continue uninhibited," Thune and Johnson wrote.

The agreement comes nearly a week after House Republicans dismissed an identical plan, refusing to take up the Senate-passed measure and instead passing a 60-day short term funding bill for all of DHS that had little chance of overcoming Democratic opposition in the Senate.

Johnson called the agreement a "joke" and President Donald Trump declined to publicly endorse the deal. Trump had previously resisted any package that did not include his push to overhaul federal elections known as the Save America Act.

"I think any deal they make, I'm pretty much not happy with it," Trump told reporters last week.

Democrats welcomed the agreement as in line with their pledge not to give ICE any more money without reforms after immigration enforcement agents killed two U.S. citizens in Minneapolis. But the deal does not include any of the policy demands Democrats are pressing for, such as a ban on masks for immigration enforcement officers and requiring warrants issued by a judge, not just the agency, to enter homes.

"For days, Republican divisions derailed a bipartisan agreement, making American families pay the price for their dysfunction," Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., wrote in a statement Wednesday. "Throughout this fight, Senate Democrats never wavered."

Trump seemed to bless the revived plan earlier Wednesday, writing on social media that he wants a party-line bill to fund immigration enforcement on his desk by June 1.

"We are going to work as fast, and as focused, as possible to replenish funding for our Border and ICE Agents, and the Radical Left Democrats won't be able to stop us," Trump wrote.

Despite the shutdown, ICE has been minimally impacted because Republican lawmakers approved $75 billion for ICE through another party-line budget reconciliation bill last year.

Congress is on a two-week recess, but the Senate and House could move to fund all of DHS except ICE and CBP as early as Thursday using a procedure known as unanimous consent that allows the chambers to circumvent formal voting as long as no member objects.

Even during a recess when most members are not in Washington, this could be unpredictable, especially in the House, where many hard-line conservatives oppose a deal that does not fully fund DHS.

"Let's make this simple: caving to Democrats and not paying CBP and ICE is agreeing to defund Law Enforcement and leaving our borders wide open again," Rep. Scott Perry, R-Pa., a member of the ultra-conservative House Freedom Caucus, wrote on X. "If that's the vote, I'm a NO."

If a member does object, that could require waiting for another vote when all members are back from recess.

Claudia Grisales contributed reporting.
Copyright 2026 NPR

California clocked its second-worst snowpack on record Wednesday, a potentially troubling signal ahead for fire season.

It’s an alarming end to a winter that saw abnormally dry conditions briefly wiped from California’s drought map in January, for the first time in a quarter-century.

Though precipitation to date has been near average, much of it fell as rain rather than snow. Then March’s record-breaking heat melted most of the snow that remains. The state’s major reservoirs are nevertheless brimming above historic averages and are flirting with capacity, and a smattering of snow, rain and thunderstorms are dousing last month’s heat wave.

But experts now warn that California’s case of the missing snowpack could herald an early fire season in the mountains.

On Wednesday, state engineers conducting the symbolic April 1 snowpack measurement at Phillips Station south of Lake Tahoe found no measurable snow in patches of white dotting the grassy field.

“I want to welcome you call to probably one of the quickest snow surveys we’ve had — maybe one where people could actually use an umbrella,” joked Karla Nemeth, director of the California Department of Water Resources. “We’re getting a lot of questions about are we heading into a hydrologic drought? The answer is, I don’t know.”

State data reports that California’s snowpack is closing out the season at an alarming 18% of average statewide, and an even more abysmal 6% of average in the northern mountains that feed California’s major reservoirs.

Only the extreme drought year of 2015 beat this year’s snowpack for the worst on record, measuring in at just 5% of average on April 1st, when the snow historically is at its deepest.

“I think everyone's anticipating that it will be a long, busy fire season,” said Lenya Quinn-Davidson, director of the UC Division of Agriculture and Natural Resources Fire Network.

“Without a snowpack, and with an early spring, it just means that there’s much more time for something like that to happen.”

‘It’s pretty bizarre up here’ 

In the city of South Lake Tahoe, which survived the massive Caldor Fire in the fall of 2021 without losing any structures, fire chief Jim Drennan said his department is already ramping up prevention efforts.

“It's pretty bizarre up here right now. It really seems like June conditions more than March,” Drennan said. “People are already turning the sprinklers on for their lawns.”

Without more precipitation, an early spring may complicate prescribed burning efforts. But Drennan said fire agencies in the Tahoe basin can start mechanically clearing fuels from forest areas earlier than usual.

“That means we can get more work done,” he said.

It also means homeowners need to start hardening their homes now, said Martin Goldberg, battalion chief and fuels management officer for the Lake Valley Fire Protection District, which protects unincorporated communities in the Lake Tahoe Basin’s south shore.

Goldberg urges residents to scour their yards for burnable materials, create defensible space and reach out to local fire departments with questions. The risks are widespread — from firewood, wooden fences, gas cans, plants, pine needles — even lawn furniture stacked against a house.

“In years past, I wouldn't even think of raking and clearing until May,” Goldberg said. “But my yard's completely cleared of snowpack, and it has been for a couple weeks now.”

‘A haystack fire’

Battalion chief David Acuña, a spokesperson for Cal Fire, said fire season is shaped by more than just one year’s snowpack.

Climate change has been remaking California’s fire seasons into fire years. And California’s recent average to abundant water years have fueled what Acuña called “bumper crops of vegetation and brush.”

“Most of California is like a haystack. And if you’ve ever seen a haystack fire, they burn very intensely because there's layers of fuel,” Acuña said.

Like Quinn-Davidson, Acuña wasn’t ready to make specific predictions about fires to come.

But John Abatzoglou, a professor of climatology at UC Merced, said the temperatures and snowpack conditions this year offer a glimpse of California in the latter decades of this century, as fossil fuel use continues to drive global temperatures higher.

How this year’s fires will play out will depend on when, where and how wind, heat, fuel and ignitions combine. But it foreshadows the consequences of a warmer California for water and fire under climate change.

“This,” Abatzoglou said, “is yet another stress test for the future in the state.”

This article was originally published on CalMatters and was republished under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives license.