Census will decide California's congressional delegation

We're still a year away from the 2010 Census. But already, the number crunchers are trying to predict whether the new population count will cost California a congressional seat. KPCC's Washington Correspondent Kitty Felde reports.

Kitty Felde: The last time the U.S. Census counted Californians, there were nearly 34 million of us. Demographers know the state's population has grown over the past decade, but by how much?

Hans Johnson: Right now, we have two very different estimates of the state's population, both by credible government organizations.

Felde: Hans Johnson is a demographer with the Public Policy Institute of California. He says the Census Bureau estimates California is now home to just under 37 million people.

But the California Department of Finance came up with a different number by factoring in additional information gleaned from driver's license records. It says the state's population is more than 38 million.

Johnson: So this is actually a difference of about 1.4 million people. And that's about equivalent to two members of the House of Representatives.

Felde: And that's why the actual number matters. California already has the largest congressional delegation of any state – 53 House members. More people in California could mean more Californians in Congress.

Johnson: In terms of apportioning the House of Representatives, you have to grow faster than the nation to get more seats. And if you just grow at the same pace as the nation, then there will, of course, be no change in the number of seats.

Felde: Both the Census Bureau and California's Department of Finance agree California is growing. But other states are growing, too – and faster than California. And there's more.

Congress could decide to award the District of Columbia a voting member of Congress. Because the seat would be safely Democratic, Republicans would want an additional seat. And depending on the census numbers, that seat might be squeezed out of California's fat delegation.

Bruce Cain: I don't think that it will matter much in terms of California's influence in the country to go from 53 to 52.

Felde: UC Berkeley political science professor Bruce Cain heads the University of California's Washington Center.

Cain: The main problem is that it's a game of musical chairs. And somebody's not going to have a chair to sit in. And that potentially could be an important person who chairs an important committee in the Congress.

So in theory it could be somebody like a Howard Berman or a Henry Waxman that loses their district, because historically those have been areas where population growth has been low.

Felde: But Professor Cain says it's not likely that either congressman will lose his seat – especially since Berman's brother Michael has helped draw the lines for California's congressional districts for three decades.

But a lot can happen between now and when heads are counted next year. The Public Policy Institute's Hans Johnson says one factor is not working in California's favor: the recession.

Johnson: We know historically in California that when our unemployment rates are substantially higher than nation, we have outflows out of the state that increase.

Felde: At 11-and-a-half-percent, California's unemployment rate is substantially higher than the nation's – nearly 3 percentage points higher. If that means more Californians will soon leave the state for better jobs elsewhere, a congressional seat could go with them.