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The most important stories for you to know today
  • "Round-up" campaigns are raking in millions
    So-called point-of-sale donations have sharply increased in recent years, bringing in hundreds of millions of dollars a year. But the requests to "round up" your bill for charity have really taken off.
    So-called point-of-sale donations have sharply increased in recent years, bringing in hundreds of millions of dollars a year. But the requests to "round up" your bill for charity have really taken off.

    Topline:

    It turns out those ubiquitous "round-up" campaigns — at grocery chains, gas stations, retail stores and online merchants — are raking in millions of dollars annually for everything from scholarships to cancer research.

    Where things stand: In 2022 alone, charities raised $749 million nationwide through so-called point-of-sale donations, a 24% jump from 2020, according to Engage for Good, which tracks this type of charitable giving.

    The backstory: The round-up fundraising strategy was first introduced about 15 years ago. Data suggests that despite being bombarded by such requests, people are giving more each year at cash registers, self-checkouts and online.

    We've all been there: A store cashier asks if you'd like to donate money to the local food bank. Or the PIN pad at the checkout counter prompts you to round up your payment for charity — spare a little change for a worthy cause.

    Those "round-up" campaigns have become ubiquitous in recent years — at grocery chains, gas stations, retail stores and online merchants — and they rake in millions of dollars annually for everything from scholarships to cancer research.

    In 2022 alone, charities raised $749 million nationwide through so-called point-of-sale donations, a 24% jump from 2020, according to Engage for Good, which tracks this type of charitable giving. And that was just from campaigns that brought in $1 million or more. Although that figure was tiny compared to the nearly $500 billion in estimated charitable giving in 2022, total giving actually dropped that year.

    Change graphic NPR

    But it's the round-up fundraising strategy, which was first introduced about 15 years ago, that has really taken off in recent years, according to Michelle McCarthy, executive director of Round It Up America.

    "Especially since the pandemic, we've seen a big increase," says McCarthy, whose nonprofit provides legal and financial guidance for for-profit businesses that collect donations for charities.

    Much of that growth is fueled by customer generosity, but those who study consumer behavior point to other factors, too, including how we think about money and even our unconscious feelings of guilt.

    It makes sense (and dollars) to ask for less

    Michael Rindos says he "almost always" taps the donate button on the credit/debit card reader, or PIN pad. But lately, that's been changing. "I don't do it as much as I used to," Rindos says, as he juggles an armful of groceries outside a Giant Food supermarket in Severna Park, Md., near Washington, D.C.

    Rindos said he's noticed a sharp uptick in the number of requests popping up in places he shops, and it's become a bit tiresome. "Every place that you go to — Taco Bell, 7-Eleven. They're all doing it."

    Data suggests that despite being bombarded by such requests, Rindos and others like him are giving more each year at cash registers, self-checkouts and online. And it has resulted in a huge boost for charities on the receiving end. Consider the Taco Bell Foundation, a nonprofit that operates independently from the fast food chain. It brought in $42 million last year on round-ups collected from the company's more than 7,500 restaurants across the U.S. The average donation: just 44 cents.

    Previously, the foundation's fundraising strategy asked customers to donate $1 to a scholarship program in campaigns that lasted a few weeks or months. "For many years we did that," says Jennifer Bradbury, the foundation's executive director. "We had our scholarship program and we had our community grants program, which funds nonprofits like the Boys & Girls Clubs and Junior Achievement."

    But in 2019, the foundation decided to try a different approach. Bradbury says it realized, somewhat counterintuitively, that less is more. "The data we had at that point was that customers were three times more likely to round up than to donate a dollar," she says.

    Spare change 2 NPR

    The results after the switch were "mind-blowing" she says: The foundation roughly doubled what it had been raising, which averaged between $11 million and $14 million annually, but hit more than $20 million in 2019. The change was so successful, the foundation decided to permanently adopt the new strategy. "The number of regular customers who donate every time and round up every time — it's really inspiring," Bradbury says.

    Children's Miracle Network Hospitals, which raises money for pediatric hospitals, partners with such retail giants as Costco and Walmart, as well as Ace Hardware, Panda Express, 7-Eleven and DQ. In 2022, the network, with the help of its partners, raised $138 million through 78 point-of-sale fundraising campaigns, including round-ups, it says. These campaigns made up a third of the CMNH's total fundraising for that year. An online survey conducted by the network in 2022 polled some 4,000 customers. It showed that of the 88% of respondents who reported being asked to donate at checkout in the previous year, more than half said yes at least once.

    How you perceive "pain" may influence how much you donate

    Why have round up for charity campaigns proven so successful? Katie Kelting, an associate professor of marketing at Saint Louis University, suggests that there's some powerful psychology at work.

    In 2018, Kelting and her colleagues enlisted the St. Louis Zoo in a field study. Instead of asking food court patrons for the usual $1 donation for a wild animal conservation effort, the zoo temporarily tried the round-up approach. Fundraising jumped 21% during the experiment, which ran for a few weeks. Kelting calculated that over a one-year period, the zoo would have brought in about $8,000 more by simply changing the way customers were asked to donate.

    As Kelting explains, a lot of it has to do with the "pain" of parting with our hard-earned cash. "The perceived pain is less in the consumer's mind when that round-up request is presented," compared to a solicitation for a specific dollar amount, she says.

    There are likely other factors in play, says Ike Silver, an assistant professor at Northwestern University's Kellogg School of Management. Humans, for instance, appear to have a fairly strong preference for round numbers, or figures ending with a zero. A 2013 study looked at purchases at self-serve gas pumps and found that 56% of them ended on a round dollar figure — far exceeding mere chance. The same study noted that at restaurants, many people prefer to leave tips that bring the final bill to a round number.

    "It's like an effort-reduction strategy whereby people are better at and intuitively prefer to deal with round numbers," Silver says. "That manifests in how much you want to pay and how much you want to buy."

    Arguably more important is that point-of-sale charitable requests can transform an ordinary purchase into a moral quandary, he says. "It becomes an opportunity to signal to yourself and others that you care," Silver says. In the case of the round-up request, it becomes something of a moral test, he says. "It's such a low-cost ask that to say no starts to induce slight feelings of guilt."

    Kelting, citing a body of research by others, says that customers might also change their behavior and perceptions in public versus private settings. In this case, the self-checkout is analogous to a private setting where it is easier to decline, but the same decision in front of a cashier — especially one who adds a verbal prompt for the donation — is something different. "When you're in the long checkout with the cashier, with everyone around you, that's more like this public setting," she says.

    Round It Up America's McCarthy says the data supports this thinking. "Customers do appreciate being asked, so that prompt at the checkout does make a difference."

    But Cait Lamberton, a professor of marketing at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School, cautions that there's a potential downside to all of this. Customers, she says, may feel manipulated and could end up "feeling resentful toward the source of the manipulation" — the retailer doing the collecting.

    Shoppers want to know where their money is going

    Paula Nichols says she never taps "Yes" on the PIN pad when it prompts her to round up her bill. "Does that make me a bad person?" she laughs, as she loads groceries into the back of her SUV at the Giant Food supermarket in Maryland.

    It's not that Nichols minds giving to charity. She says she supports a local nonprofit food bank and is friends with its president. "We do a lot with them."

    But when it comes to giving in the checkout line, she's wary. "How do I know where that money is going? And the price of food? I just spent almost $200 on this," she says, nodding to the groceries in the trunk.

    In 2022, a CVS customer filed a lawsuit against the pharmaceutical chain claiming that it wrongly used money collected through point-of-sale donations to honor a pledge to the American Diabetes Association. In a statement to NPR, the pharmaceutical giant says the suit was dismissed in September 2023, which "allowed CVS to complete its in-store National Diabetes Month Campaign, which collected more than $10 million in donations for the benefit of the American Diabetes Association."

    Round It Up America says its agreements are designed to ensure that charities receive more than 90% of the money collected, and charities can spend no more than a quarter of donations on administrative costs. McCarthy says her organization receives up to 7% "to cover our legal and financial costs" and stores can take up to 2% to cover credit card transaction fees.

    "Consumers deserve — and state attorneys general require — transparency and assurance that the donations go where they are advertised and intended," McCarthy says.

    Save the Children is one organization that has made extensive use of point-of-sale campaigns, including requests to round up. "We can try to influence [the message] put on that PIN pad or what the store associate says," according to Dan Peirce, who is in charge of the nonprofit's corporate partnerships. "But ... operationally they have to make sure that it works for them. And so they do have the final say."

    The ride-share company Lyft runs a campaign that helps customers take a more considered approach to giving. Riders can select from a list of charities on the company's app. Then each time they ride, their bill is automatically rounded up to the nearest dollar to benefit their charity of choice.

    "If you go to your profile in the app, it'll say something like, 'You know, you've given X number of times' to kind of remind people that this is a good thing, even though ... it was 50 cents here, 20 cents there," says Jeremy Bird, the company's chief policy officer. "It's been a massive success for us."

    How much is too much?

    Despite the burgeoning success of point-of-sale fundraising, including round-up solicitations, there's the risk that customers could become overwhelmed with these pervasive campaigns. "I think you have to be very careful because so many people do find these annoying because they're not relevant to what they're doing at the moment," which is making a purchase, says Lamberton, the Wharton professor.

    Kelting, too, says this could be a problem worth studying. "You might have donated yesterday [but] you forgot to buy milk." So, what happens, she wonders, if you go back the next day for that carton of milk. Are you less likely to round up your bill the second time?

    Another potential downside? Quick point-of-sale donations might not do much to create any meaningful connection with charities, Lamberton says. Donating your virtual pocket change to a cause might elicit a sugar high for the ego — but one that quickly fades.

    It's harder to stand outside a store, ringing a bell to ask for donations, "but what you are getting is a lot of exposure," she says. "So you're building familiarity."

    In a face-to-face solicitation, she says, "people who do engage with you are probably very positively disposed towards the charity already."

    Copyright 2024 NPR. To see more, visit npr.org.

  • New space for young musicians
    The band Saints of Sinners plays on stage under the glow of orange lights. The guitarist has long hair and is shirtless.
    Saints of Sinners performing at Backyard Party on Jan. 10, 2026

    Topline:

    About three months old, Backyard Party is one of the San Gabriel Valley's newest all age music venues. On a recent Saturday night, its lineup was full of teenage musicians who got the chance to play loud, very loud on a professional stage. And make some cash.

    The backstory: A project of non-profit Altadena Musicians, Backyard Party is run by Matt Chait and Sandra Denver. The idea is to make a space where musicians and music fans reeling from last year's wildfires can connect and support each other.

    Read on ... to learn more about the space and see photos.

    On a recent Saturday, a group of teenage musicians took to a stage inside an unlikely place: an unassuming unit in a business park at the bottom of Lincoln Avenue in Pasadena.

    This space has a stage sitting on its concrete floor with the words "Backyard Party" playfully scrawled across the bottom.

    The members of a band called The Wendolls sound checked with Matt Chait at the mixing board.

    One of the area’s newest all-ages venues, Backyard Party is Chait’s brainchild.

    “The fires crushed garages where kids would have been playing. It burnt backyards where they would have been playing. It burnt down the schools where they would have been playing. So this is the communal backyard party. That’s specifically what we built and why we built it,” Chait said just outside the makeshift venue. The only thing that sets it apart from the nondescript units around it is a handwritten sign that says ‘No Ins and Outs.’

    Chait, who was evacuated from his residence during the Eaton Fire, teamed up with Sandra Denver to manage the volunteer-run Backyard Party a few months ago. Her daughter sung lead vocals in a band called Sly, one of four bands on the lineup.

    “We wanted to provide a space for all of the teen bands all around to come and play and help them create a kind of scene,” Denver said.

    It’s the type of spot Denver said she wishes she had growing up in Phoenix, Arizona.

    A black tip box has the words Backyard Party written in yellow paint marker.
    The tip box at Backyard Party
    (
    Robert Garrova / LAist
    )

    And she’s just one of several supportive parents here who are helping load in amps and guitars and bass drums.

    Sixteen-year-old Jett Bizon is the drummer for Saints of Sinners, one of the bands on the bill. He said there’s another reason there are so many parents in the crowd.

    “Well, nobody drives. Everybody needs a ride,” Bizon said with a chuckle.

    With his long dark hair, Bizon explained that he’s already played some legendary local venues like The Whiskey a Go Go. But he said it feels like Backyard Party is becoming a much needed space for younger musicians in the area.

    “We need to let out some type of energy and everybody’s putting it into music,” Bizon said. “I think it’s a great thing. Finally a scene again, it’s fun.”

    As Bizon and his bandmates played their set of hard rock songs, the only people on their phones in the crowd were parents filming.

    Some of the young folks taking the stage were affected by the Eaton Fire in one way or another. Some of them were evacuated. Others lost homes or saw their friends displaced.

    Payton Owen was part of the crew running the door, taking tickets and dolling out snacks. She too is a musician and writes reviews of some of the concerts here.

    “I think it’s amazing. I think it’s really like a point of community,” she said from behind a glass case filled with bags of popcorn and candy. “It’s a really nice opportunity for kids to really have somewhere where they can go.”

    Teenager Elise Lamond agreed. She’d been following Chait around all night, learning how to set levels for the musicians, run the house lights and more.

    “Most people at this age don’t have those kinds of opportunities,” she said, adding that, as a musician herself, she appreciated having free access to the venue’s music equipment, too.

    Chait, who had a hand in running the now closed AAA Electra 99 venue in Anaheim and has been a musician since he was 12, said Pasadena and Altadena have a noteworthy music pedigree.

    “I mean, Van Halen started in quite literal ‘backyard parties’ over on Allen. I think it lives here,” he said.

    And Chait said he’s blown away by the new talent that’s come to this stage. For his part, he thinks it’s the start of a new scene that will balloon beyond Altadena and Pasadena.

    Venue operator Matt Chait sits in front of a sound mixing board.
    Matt Chait going over the sound setup with Elise Lamond at Backyard Party.
    (
    Robert Garrova / LAist
    )

    “The fact that these kids who are now, let's say, 15-20 all lived through COVID and were very separated from each other. And now, in this particular neighborhood, are also separated again because of the fires. And they have supportive parents and now they have the physical place to be... All of the pieces of the puzzle are here,” Chait said.

    For now, Chait said this is a labor of love. The space here is provided by Altadena Musicians, a non-profit that’s working to get instruments back in the hands of people who lost their gear in the fires. And as for ticket sales?

    “It is the best part of running the venue: the end of the night, when we hand cash to these kids for playing,” Chait said.

    Tonight’s bounty from a full-house? $320.

    “There’s a couple of these kids, if they play one or two more times, we’re going to have to give them 1099s,” he said.

    How to catch a BYP show

    Backyard Party
    1260 Lincoln Ave. #1300
    Pasadena

    For a calendar of upcoming shows, check out BYP’s website and Instagram.

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  • Utility sues SoCalGas and L.A. County over Fire
    Two green banners are seen on a chain link fence. One says "I'm holding Edison accountable with LA Fire Justice You should too!" the other the right of it features an emoji with an expletive mouth and says "Edison Did This". Behind the fence and empty lot is seen surrounded by more chain link fences.
    Signs blaming Southern California Edison for the Eaton fire are seen near cleared lots in the Altadena area of Los Angeles County on Jan. 5.

    Topline:

    On Friday Southern California Edison filed cross-claim lawsuits against Los Angeles County and a number of other entites over their alleged roles in the Eaton Fire.

    Who is involved: Edison filed two separate lawsuits. One against Southern California Gas and another against Los Angeles County and nearly a dozen other parties.

    What are the claims: Edison accuses Southern California Gas of exacerbating the fire by delaying shutting off gas in the burn area until several days after the fire started. The second suit accuses Los Angeles County and affiliated parties of failing to evacuate residents in a timely manner and failing to provide proper resources for fire suppression.

    The backstory: Edison itself is the subject of hundreds of lawsuits from survivors of the Eaton Fire, which could cost the company billions of dollars in settlements. The company has acknowledged that its own equipment likely started the fire.

    What's next: Those claims will be heard in the L.A. County Superior Court, which is also handling L.A. County’s lawsuit and nearly 1,000 other cases against SoCal Edison stemming from the Eaton Fire.

    Read on ... to learn the details of the suits.

    On Friday, Southern California Edison filed lawsuits against Los Angeles County and several other agencies over their alleged roles in the Eaton Fire.

    Two lawsuits were filed.

    In one suit, the utility company alleges Southern California Gas delayed shutting off gas in the burn area for several days after the fire, making the blaze worse.

    “SoCalGas’ design and actions caused gas leaks, gas fires, reignition of fires, gas explosions and secondary ignitions during the critical early stages of the Eaton Fire,” according to the suit.

    The claim goes on to say this contributed to the spread of the fire and made firefighting and evacuation efforts more difficult.

    In the second suit, the utility company alleges the Eaton Fire was made worse by the local government response, “including due to the failures of LASD, LACoFD, OEM and GENASYS in issuing timely evacuation alerts and notifications,” the claim reads.

    The same filing says L.A. County was to blame for vegetation and overgrown brush in the Eaton Canyon area that fueled the blaze.

    It also named the city of Pasadena and its utility system, Pasadena Water and Power, the city of Sierra Madre, Kinneloa Irrigation District, Rubio Cañon Land & Water Association, Las Flores Water Company and Lincoln Avenue Water Company as parties responsible for water systems running dry in Altadena as the fire broke out.

    Edison says hydrants running dry compounded the extent of the disaster.

    Those claims will be heard in the L.A. County Superior Court, which is also handling L.A. County’s lawsuit against SoCal Edison.

    Edison itself is the subject of hundreds of lawsuits from survivors of the Eaton Fire, which could cost the company billions of dollars in settlements.

    Edison has said its equipment likely sparked the Eaton Fire and filed these suits, in part, because it believes these various entities should share some of the blame for the disaster, which resulted in the destruction of thousands of buildings and the deaths of 19 people.

    A compensation program Edison established for fire survivors who forgo suing the company has made settlement offers to more than 80 of those who applied.

  • Q&A with LA Sentinel president
    a man with short hair and glasses with a brown button up shirt sits at a table in a conference room
    Danny Bakewell speaks with The LA Local on Jan. 12, 2025, about the MLK Day Parade.

    Topline:

    A new organization is taking over production of the MLK Day Parade, almost 40 years after the first parade was held in South L.A. to commemorate the civil rights leader.

    Who's taking over? Bakewell Media, publisher of the Los Angeles Sentinel newspaper (a partner of The LA Local), was granted the permit in September to organize the parade for the first time by the Los Angeles Board of Police Commissioners. Formerly called the Kingdom Day Parade, the parade has been rebranded as the Los Angeles Official Martin Luther King Day Parade. The parade was previously produced and organized by Adrian Dove and the L.A. chapter of the Congress of Racial Equality California (CORE-CA).

    Read on ... for an interview with Danny Bakewell Jr., president and executive director of the L.A. Sentinel.

    A new organization is taking over production of the MLK Day Parade, almost 40 years after the first parade was held in South L.A. to commemorate the civil rights leader.

    Bakewell Media, publisher of the Los Angeles Sentinel newspaper (a partner of The LA Local), was granted the permit in September to organize the parade for the first time by the Los Angeles Board of Police Commissioners. Formerly called the Kingdom Day Parade, the parade has been rebranded as the Los Angeles Official Martin Luther King Day Parade. The parade was previously produced and organized by Adrian Dove and the L.A. chapter of the Congress of Racial Equality California (CORE-CA).

    With less than a week before the parade kicks off, LA Local reporter LaMonica Peters sat down with Danny Bakewell Jr., president and executive editor of the LA Sentinel, to discuss the details and what attendees should expect.

    This Jan. 12 interview has been edited for brevity and clarity.

    Why did you decide to produce the MLK Day Parade this year?

    Bakewell: It all started because Adrian Dove, who was the previous promoter, had announced that he was retiring. When he announced he was retiring, LAPD, city council offices and other people said, “Hey, we still want to do the MLK Day parade. Would you guys be interested? You have the infrastructure to put it together.” And we said yes.

    What’s different about this year’s production?

    We’re going to start the parade with a singer performing “Lift Every Voice.” We’re going to play the message from Bernice King at the start of the show. Obviously, we have Cedric the Entertainer as our grand marshal to add the entertainment value, but the community has always been and will continue to be a major part of this parade.

    Is ABC 7 covering the parade this year? 

    It’s still going to be televised by ABC. We’re working diligently on how the show is going to be, but ABC has been a great partner.

    What was the preparation for this parade?

    Thanks to our corporate sponsors, we have a number of bands. The truth is, particularly in LAUSD at this time, and other school districts, they don’t have the funding to just get a bus and get here. I can’t say enough about Airbnb to Bank of America, all of our corporate sponsors, who are supporting all of the youth organizations.

    Were there any unexpected challenges while preparing for this parade? 

    This [The LA Sentinel office on Crenshaw Blvd.] is usually our command center during The Taste of Soul. It dawned on me last week that we’re going to be a mile away [from the parade route]. So, we made the decision to bring in a trailer to be our office at the corner of King and Crenshaw boulevards.

    Any special guests this year besides the grand marshal?

    I’m working on a surprise guest to be the singer for the national anthem. No matter what, we will give tribute to the Black national anthem “Lift Every Voice” as loud as we can next Monday.

    What’s the long-term vision for this parade, if Bakewell Media continues to produce it?

    We see the MLK Day Parade, and we want the world to see and expect to see this parade, the same way they see the Macy’s Parade, the Hollywood Parade or the Rose Parade. BET has come in this year as a partner. So there’s an opportunity to possibly do a national broadcast on BET. Not that we would lose our local television, but we see this as a major parade in this community and in the national African American community, celebrating the great work of Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. So, we are very excited.

  • K-town institution shuts down this month
    people stand around amid shelves of books in a well lit store
    Aladdin Used Bookstore in Koreatown announced it would close its store at the end of January.

    Topline:

    Jina Lee, store manager, said declining sales at the Koreatown branch led to the decision to close the store. In recent years, staffing at the 5,000 square foot store on the third floor of Madang Mall dropped from six to two, Lee said.

    The backstory: South Korea-based Aladdin Used Books opened its first US brick-and-mortar store in Los Angeles in 2013. The store carries around 50,000 new and used books,with a majority in Korean.

    Read on ... to see what locals are saying about the closure.

    Bits of conversation drift out of Aladdin Used Books as people lined up at the register with stacks of books.

    The bustle of activity is bittersweet as the Koreatown bookstore will close its doors at the end of January after 13 years in the neighborhood.

    Jina Lee, store manager, said declining sales at the Koreatown branch led to the decision to close the store. In recent years, staffing at the 5,000-square-foot store on the third floor of Madang Mall dropped from six to two, Lee said.

    “This was a happy place for everyone,” she said, “but we were struggling.”

    On a recent January afternoon, the shop looked lively as customers took advantage of the clearance sale on Korean and English books, CDs, DVDs and other media.

    Koreatown resident Jin Lee wishes he visited the bookstore more often.

    “It would have been great if it had been this crowded all the time,” Lee said. “But nowadays, people don’t read paper books and prefer devices, so it’s hard for all bookstores.”

    Some customers traveled from as far as Orange County and the Inland Empire to visit one last time.

    Minjung Kim, who moved from Koreatown to Fullerton five years ago, still made trips to the bookstore after she moved away.

    “It’s the only place that sells this many new and used Korean books,” she said.

    Each visit to the bookstore was important to David Artiga of Pomona, because it gave him a chance to connect with friends over literature.

    “I feel like this is really negative for the community,” he said. “The importance of having a well-versed society, keeping in touch with literature and art is so important. And now this place is just going to be gone.”

    South Korea-based Aladdin Used Books opened its first U.S. brick-and-mortar store in Los Angeles in 2013. The store carries around 50,000 new and used books, with a majority in Korean.

    Customers will still be able to order books through Aladdin’s website after the store closes.

    Ken Derick, a Koreatown resident, walked around the store aisles with a stack of books.

    “It’s like we’re kind of moving towards a new technology, like everything’s virtual and online,” he said.

    Longtime customer Anthony Kim said he’s enjoyed looking for gems in the English-language shelves.

    “My Korean ability is rather limited but I’ve always enjoyed browsing their English language sections,” he said. “And now that I have a niece and nephew, their children’s book section has always been a great place to pick up new books for them.”

    Valerie Laguna perused the shop’s CD section, a bygone experience in the era of streaming.

    “I really like their CD collection and their literature collection they have in English,” she said.

    “I was so sad about it, I immediately texted my friend,” she said. “I’ve gotten so many of my favorite books and my favorite CDs from this place. I feel like losing a place like this is just so sad and makes a huge dent in the community and culture.”

    Less than a mile away on Western Avenue, Happy Bookstore owner Jung Jae-seung said it has been difficult for bookstores for some time now. His Korean-language bookstore is also struggling in an era when so many people have abandoned print media.

    “It’s really about how long printed books can survive,” Jung said. “From that point of view, it’s hard to be optimistic.”