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The Brief

The most important stories for you to know today
  • Advocates advise immigrants as feds crack down
    People hold signs that read: "Remind me do the good guys deprive people of food and water?" and "Pepole are being illegally held without food and water. Is this who we are?"
    Some immigrant rights advocates anticipate the second Trump administration will rescind a discretionary policy that discourages enforcement in schools and other “sensitive locations."

    Topline:

    In light of President Donald Trump's pledge to carry out mass deportations, immigrant rights groups have been hosting workshops that teach undocumented immigrants how to assert their constitutional rights, as well as how to prepare for worst-case scenarios.

    Why now: Workplace raids, which increased during Trump’s first time in office, are back. On Friday, ICE began a series of arrests in L.A. that have prompted an angry response.

    Why it matters: California is home to the largest undocumented immigrant population in the U.S.

    Read on ... to learn about constitutional rights, free legal aid and strategies for dealing with immigration authorities.

    President Donald Trump returned to the White House this year promising to carry out the “largest deportation operation” in U.S. history.

    Listen 3:45
    As ICE agents enter LA communities, here's what the law says about civil rights — regardless of immigration status

    On Friday, federal agents conducted a series of immigration sweeps across Los Angeles in the first large-scale enforcement action under the new Trump administration. The protests in L.A. were among numerous heated encounters between U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents around the nation in recent days.

    Local immigrants rights groups, which have braced for this for months, pushed back in protests marked by resistance and anger.

    As top local leaders decried the arrests, White House officials promised they'd carry on more sweeps.

    In light of this activity, we're looking back at a story first published in January detailing existing rights.

    The context

    California is home to the largest undocumented immigrant population in the U.S. More than 12% of the state’s high school students have at least one parent who is undocumented. For these families, mass deportation represents possible long-term separation, family upheaval and the potential loss of educational opportunities.

    Regardless of their immigration status, people who live in the U.S. have constitutional rights. To ensure those rights are respected during interactions with immigration agents, advocates across the country have hosted workshops, in person and online.

    In a webinar held earlier this year for the Central American Resource Center (CARECEN), David Lawlor with the nonprofit’s College Legal Services Team, offered some advice to anxious college students who are undocumented or have at least one parent who is: In times of uncertainty, “focus on what you can control.”

    “And one of the things you can control,” he said, “is knowing your rights.”

    Although LAist can’t give you legal advice — you need an immigration lawyer for that — we talked to Lawlor and other legal experts about how people can learn their rights and be prepared to exercise them.

    What are my rights if immigration officials come to my home?

    Lisa Graybill, vice president of law and policy at the National Immigration Law Center (NILC), said ICE agents sometimes have warrants issued by the Department of Homeland Security. These administrative warrants do not grant agents permission to enter your home.

    Carolina Castañeda, a staff attorney with the Immigrant Legal Resource Center (ILRC), said families should always keep their front doors closed.

    If ICE agents knock on your door, you can ask to see a warrant, she said. A valid warrant must be signed by a judge and issued by a court. The agents can either show it to you through the window or slide it under the door.

    If your door is open, that doesn’t give agents the right to enter. “It is still a private place,” Castañeda added, “but, unfortunately, it could be that they let themselves in, and it will be more difficult for people to assert their rights. ... We’ve heard of many instances where, if someone just slightly opens the door, they push it open and go in. And this is not right, as they need your permission or a judicial search warrant to be able to enter.”

    Listen 0:24
    Listen: What's in a warrant? There are three things to look for
    Julie Mitchell, of Central American Resource Center's College Legal Services Team, describes what a warrant needs to be valid.
    A sample judicial warrant, with key elements highlighted in red letters. Those labels read: "Issued by a court"; "Attachment should have the name of the person & address to be seized"; and "Signed by a Judge/Magistrate Judge."
    Sample of a judicial warrant.
    (
    Central American Resource Center
    )

    Graybill also warned that ICE agents “have been known to use ruses.” In New Mexico, she said, agents pretended to be delivering pizza to get one family to open the door.

    ILRC created a wallet-sized card to help citizens and noncitizens navigate these encounters. On one side, the card lists their constitutional rights, along with guidance. On the other side of the card, the nonprofit has listed phrases that can be used to communicate with ICE agents. These cards are available online in 36 languages and can be downloaded for free.

    A wallet-sized card with cutlines indicating where it should be folded. On the left, in Korean, the card lists constitutional rights and guidance, including: “DO NOT ANSWER ANY QUESTIONS from an immigration agent if they try to talk to you. You have the right to remain silent." On the other side of the card, the nonprofit has listed phrases that can be used to communicate with ICE agents, including: “I do not wish to speak with you, answer your questions, or sign or hand you any documents based on my 5th Amendment rights under the United States Constitution.”
    A sample card that can be printed at home. The IRLC ships red versions of the cards for free to nonprofits.
    (
    Courtesy of the Immigrant Legal Resource Center
    )

    How do I talk to an immigration agent?

    Castañeda said families can “often feel overwhelmed” by the presence of ICE agents. In preparation for any potential encounters, she recommends practicing what to say and how to behave.

    Listen 0:43
    Listen: Advocates say: ‘Know your rights’
    Undocumented immigrants and mixed-status families are learning how to assert themselves — and prepare for worst-case scenarios.

    “It’s so difficult to do it when you're actually faced with the problem,” she said. “So we want to make sure that we're training adults and children in the household that whenever anybody comes to our door, we don't automatically open it, we ask who it is. We ask them to identify themselves. And then we want to make sure that, if we know it's immigration enforcement, that we're asserting our rights. We’re asserting our right to remain silent, we're not giving you permission to enter. If you have a judicial warrant, show it to us.”

    Families can also show the ILRC card to the agents through the window, or slide it to them under the door, Castañeda said.

    If ICE agents do have a judicial warrant, Graybill added, “ideally, you'd be able to reach an attorney and share a copy of that warrant before moving any further.”

    “If you're not able to access an attorney quickly,” she said, read the warrant “very carefully” and “really scrutinize” what it gives agents a right to do.

    Tips for Immigrant Communities

    Julie Mitchell, co-legal director at the L.A.-based Central American Resource Center, shared these recommendations:

    • File Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) applications as soon as possible. “At this time, we are encouraging people to file their DACA renewals up to a year early."
    • “If you have a pending immigration case, or are in the process of filing, continue with the process and get advice on your best options moving forward. Anytime there is a change in administration, there are often resulting immigration policy and law changes.”
    • “For individuals who have a prior removal or deportation order, we encourage them to get a legal consultation with an attorney or an accredited representative."

    What are my rights if immigration officials go to my job or school?

    Just as you would at home, Castañeda said, “assert your right to remain silent. Do not sign anything. Ask to speak with an attorney.”

    Agents who show up at a workplace might tell employees to make two lines, one for citizens and one for noncitizens.

    If that occurs, Castañeda said, do not comply. “Usually what happens is that [agents] will start interrogating people about their immigration status,” she said.

    “Stand still. Assert your right to remain silent. And, then, ask if you’re free to go,” Castañeda said. “Do not run away. Do not present any fake documents. Do not give out false information — don’t give them anything they can use against you.”

    “Insist on the ability to speak with an attorney,” Graybill added.

    Free legal aid for California college students

    Students enrolled in California’s public colleges and universities can access free immigration advice and representation.

    Community college staff and faculty can also obtain free legal services. At the CSU, staff, faculty, immediate family, recent graduates, and newly admitted students can also get help.

    What if I’m a business owner?

    For business owners, Castañeda and Graybill also recommend preparing for a potential ICE visit.

    “Make a written response plan ahead of time. And practice it, just like a fire drill," Graybill said.

    Castañeda and Graybill noted that, without a warrant, ICE agents can only enter spaces that are open to the public. In a coffee shop, for instance, the kitchen and office space are usually solely open to employees. Business owners should “mark those areas, so that it’s clearly visible that they’re private,’” Castañeda said.

    On college campuses, ICE agents likewise cannot enter a space that’s not open to the public without a judicial warrant, including dorm rooms and other areas that require a key card to access, Graybill added.

    What to do if immigration agents come to your workplace

    The National Immigration Law Center, in partnership with the National Employment Law Project, has created a detailed guide for workers and employers.

    It describes employers’ rights and responsibilities, as well as what they can do after an enforcement action.

    How else can I protect myself and my family?

    In addition to knowing one’s rights and preparing to respond to ICE agents, legal experts recommend that families with members who do not have legal status in the U.S. consult with an attorney. “If folks have a pathway that could lead to residency and eventually citizenship, we want to make sure that we're doing that in advance,” Castañeda said.

    Julie Mitchell, who founded CARECEN’s College Legal Services Team, said consulting with an attorney is especially crucial for young people. There are government programs that help, such as the Special Immigrant Juvenile classification, which is for people who’ve been abused, abandoned, or neglected by a parent.

    “Some forms of relief are only available until individuals turn 21,” Mitchell said. “Oftentimes, we’re encountering people who’ve aged out of some immigration options.”

    Legal experts also recommend that families make a plan, in case they’re apprehended.

    • Gather important documents.
      • That includes children’s birth certificates.
    • If a parent grants another person permission to take care of their child, they need to describe what that will look like in writing, Castañeda said.
      • Can they take the child to school? 
      • Can they take them to medical appointments? 
      • Does the child need any medicine?
    • Have emergency contact information for other family members.
      • For an undocumented family member, write down their date of birth and country of origin. “That's how people can search [for] you on the ICE inmate locator online,” Castañeda said.
    • Undocumented family members should also gather any immigration documents.
      • “In case a person is detained, their family will have those documents available, to help defend them against the removal,” she added.

    ILRC has a guide that describes how to create a comprehensive family preparedness plan step by step. Their free guide is available in English and Spanish.

    “No one wants to do this, because it's thinking about being detained,” said Lawlor, of CARECEN. “But it is vital.”

  • Should the unincorporated community have one?
    Cars driving up and down a street lined with parked cars and businesses with a large signage stretching across it that reads "Whittier Boulevard. East Los Angeles."
    The iconic Whittier Boulevard sign overlooks a commercial stretch of East L.A.

    Topline:

    East Los Angeles residents will soon have a chance to share their ideas on local government at a series of community forums, nearly a year after a report concluded that becoming a city wasn’t financially feasible.

    When will it happen? The first of six East LA Community Forums will be held on Feb. 21 at Salazar Park in East LA. Residents can attend in person or virtually to weigh in on whether a Municipal Advisory Council (MAC) or similar advisory body could benefit the unincorporated community.

    The backstory: Because East L.A. is not an incorporated city, it falls under direct oversight of LA County. That means decisions about services and developments are handled by county officials — in this case by Supervisor Hilda Solis, who represents the area and more than two million constituents. If established, a MAC would be led by citizens and directly advise the county Board of Supervisors on issues unique to East LA.

    Read on... for more details on how residents can weigh in.

    This story was originally published by Boyle Heights Beat on Feb. 9, 2026.

    East Los Angeles residents will soon have a chance to share their ideas on local government at a series of community forums, nearly a year after a report concluded that becoming a city wasn’t financially feasible.

    The first of six East L.A. Community Forums will be held on Feb. 21 at Salazar Park in East L.A. Residents can attend in person or virtually to weigh in on whether a Municipal Advisory Council (MAC) or similar advisory body could benefit the unincorporated community.

    How East L.A. is governed and what could change

    Because East L.A. is not an incorporated city, it falls under direct oversight of L.A. County. That means decisions about services and developments are handled by county officials – in this case by Supervisor Hilda Solis, who represents the area and more than 2 million constituents.

    If established, a MAC would be led by citizens and directly advise the county Board of Supervisors on issues unique to East LA.

    MACs don’t have the power to make laws, authorize budgets or direct county operations but can, however, provide a structure for public input and give stakeholders a direct line of communication to county leadership. Some residents argue that the current governance structure does not adequately serve the community of nearly 120,000 and that an alternative form of representation could help address local needs.

    Although the 2025 report detailed the fiscal challenges for incorporation, several East L.A. residents and stakeholders agreed that the push for the study was less about cityhood and more about financial transparency for East L.A.

    Who is leading the outreach?

    The forums are being led by the Los Angeles Economic Equity Accelerator and Fellowship (LEEAF) program through California State University, Los Angeles, at the direction of the county CEO’s office. According to a spokesperson, the outreach is expected to conclude in the spring with a report submitted to the Board of Supervisors by the end of July 2026.

    LEEAF has conducted several analyses on the economics of unincorporated East L.A., its most recent being an assessment of how ICE raids impacted businesses in the area.

    The forums are free and will focus on small, group conversations to allow all attendees to speak and share insight. Meetings will run for approximately 90 minutes and have a place for children ages 5-12 to play.

    How to attend

    Interested in making your voice heard at one of the forums? See a complete list of the meetings below. While RSVPs are suggested, they are not required.

    • Feb. 21 at 2 p.m. at Salazar Park, 3864 Whittier Boulevard. Register here
    • Feb. 26 at 5 p.m. at East LA Library, 4837 East 3rd Street. Register here
    • Feb. 28 at 2 p.m. at City Terrace Park, 1126 North Hazard Avenue. Register here
    • March 4 at 5:30 p.m. at East LA Service Center, 133 North Sunol Drive. Register here
    • March 5 at 5:30 (Virtual meeting on Zoom) Register here
    • March 7 at 2 p.m. at Saybrook Park, 6250 Northside Drive. Register here
  • A sprinkling this week and more next week
    A person is holding a clear umbrella, decorated with colorful polka dots, over their head and face, resting on their shoulders. A packed freeway is out of focus in the background, with white headlights facing the camera.
    Rain and snow are in the forecast for early next week.

    Topline:

    Beginning Tuesday, rain will move into Southern California and temperatures will start dropping from the 80s (which is 15 to 20 degrees above normal) down into the 60s, according to the National Weather Service.

    Two storms: The first storm will roll into the area late Tuesday and wrap up early Wednesday, likely dropping less than an inch of rain. Another storm is expected to arrive late Saturday or early Sunday and will be much cooler. We could see multiple inches of rain fall across the region, and snow falling on our mountains and deserts. The storm will likely wrap up by Feb. 18.

    Hazards ahead: The second storm could cause flooding, particularly in recently burned areas. Heavy snow could affect mountain travel, as well as the Grapevine.

    Snow drought: The West has been suffering from a lack of snow — from California to Colorado — imperiling water supplies and stressing landscapes. Snowpack generally peaks by April 1, so we still have time for a March miracle, but current conditions are concerning.

    About that rain: Downtown L.A. receives about 14 inches of rainfall on average each year. It was drenched with that much at the start of the rainy season. However, only 2.47 inches have fallen since Jan. 1. The lack of precipitation and the recent high temperatures mean that fire season — which we felt confident saying would be delayed for some time, back in December — could come earlier than anticipated if landscapes continue to dry out.

  • CA sues websites that publish blueprints for them
    A close up of a small plastic black and white gun.
    A 3D-printed gun at Defense Distributed in Austin, Texas on Aug. 1, 2018.

    Topline:

    California law enforcement agencies seize about 11,000 ghost guns every year. The state now is suing websites that help people manufacture untraceable firearms.

    More details: The lawsuit, filed by Attorney General Rob Bonta and San Francisco City Attorney David Chiu, is aimed at the Gatalog Foundation Inc. and CTRLPEW LLC. The lawsuit in San Francisco Superior Court argues that the websites violated multiple state laws, including the distribution of computer code and guidelines for 3D printing firearms, illegal large-capacity magazines, and other firearm-related products.

    Why now: The proliferation of ghost guns has increased dramatically over the past decade in California, resulting in what the lawsuit refers to as a “public safety crisis.” According to the lawsuit, California law enforcement agencies recovered 26 ghost guns in 2015. Since 2021, agencies have recovered an average of more than 11,000 ghost guns per year, the lawsuit said.

    Read on... for more about the lawsuit.

    This story was originally published by CalMatters. Sign up for their newsletters.

    Two websites that distribute instructions for how to manufacture ghost guns are facing a new lawsuit from the state of California alleging that they provide access to illegal and untraceable firearms.

    The lawsuit, filed by Attorney General Rob Bonta and San Francisco City Attorney David Chiu, is aimed at the Gatalog Foundation Inc. and CTRLPEW LLC.

    The lawsuit in San Francisco Superior Court argues that the websites violated multiple state laws, including the distribution of computer code and guidelines for 3D printing firearms, illegal large-capacity magazines, and other firearm-related products.

    According to the lawsuit, the websites offer computer code and instructions for more than 150 designs of lethal firearms and prohibited firearm accessories. The lawsuit said state officials as part of their investigation downloaded the code and instructions from the website “with a few simple keystrokes” and used it to build a Glock-style handgun.

    “These defendants’ conduct enables unlicensed people who are too young or too dangerous to pass firearm background checks to illegally print deadly weapons without a background check and without a trace,” said Bonta. “This lawsuit underscores just how dangerous the ghost gun industry is and how much harm its skip-the-background check business model has done to California’s communities.”

    The defendants could not be reached for comment. In addition to the two websites, the lawsuit names as defendants three men: Alexander Holladay, who the lawsuit identifies as the Gatalog Foundation’s principal; John Elik, who is identified as its director; and gun rights attorney Matthew Larosiere.

    Larosiere in a 2019 interview with the Mercury News characterized ghost guns as a legal hobby for firearms enthusiasts.

    “It is, and always has been, legal for ordinary adults to make firearms for their own personal use,” he told the newspaper. “These people tend to be dedicated hobbyists. Home-built firearms have been around as long as our nation, and today in a country of 300 million people, we rarely ever see them used in crime.”

    The proliferation of ghost guns has increased dramatically over the past decade in California, resulting in what the lawsuit refers to as a “public safety crisis.” According to the lawsuit, California law enforcement agencies recovered 26 ghost guns in 2015. Since 2021, agencies have recovered an average of more than 11,000 ghost guns per year, the lawsuit said.

    “Because they are not serialized, ghost guns are effectively untraceable by law enforcement,” the lawsuit stated. “And because they are manufactured privately, often in one’s home, they bypass critical safeguards like background checks. In this way, ghost guns unlawfully circumvent traditional gun control measures.”

    The lawsuit detailed particularly stark examples of the dangers that 3D printed firearms have posed, including the arrest of a 14-year-old boy who used a 3D printer to manufacture multiple firearms in Santa Rosa in 2024.

    Adam Skaggs, chief counsel and vice president of GIFFORDS Law Center to Prevent Gun Violence, said in a statement that the organization has previously partnered with Bonta to stop three ghost gun companies from operating throughout California.

    “But a new generation of irresponsible gun industry actors are trying to unlawfully arm minors, people with felony convictions, and domestic abusers by letting them 3D-print their own guns without any background checks,” he said.

    Cayla Mihalovich is a California Local News fellow.

    This article was originally published on CalMatters and was republished under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives license.

  • 5 signs for Republicans in midterm elections

    Topline:

    Times Square's digital screens have nothing on the glaring warning signs for Republicans ahead of these upcoming midterm elections.

    Why now: President Donald Trump, his policies and actions are unpopular. The GOP continues to lose special elections. Republicans are retiring at faster rates than Democrats. And people are saying they'd rather Democrats control Congress. At this point, all of it adds up to trouble for the party in power.

    Democrats are leading on the congressional ballot test: On average, Democrats have about a 5-point edge in polls asking people which party they'd rather see in control of Congress. That's often referred to as the congressional ballot test in surveys. Because more districts lean toward Republicans in the country, Democrats have generally needed a wider edge on this question.

    Read on... for more warning signs for the Republican party.

    Stay up to date with our Politics newsletter, sent weekly.


    Times Square's digital screens have nothing on the glaring warning signs for Republicans ahead of these upcoming midterm elections.

    President Donald Trump, his policies and actions are unpopular. The GOP continues to lose special elections. Republicans are retiring at faster rates than Democrats. And people are saying they'd rather Democrats control Congress.

    At this point, all of it adds up to trouble for the party in power.

    The state of play: Democrats' hopes for taking over the House are more likely by the day, while the Senate remains a longer shot.

    The House: All members of Congress face election every two years. Republicans currently have a 218-214 majority with three vacancies (one Democratic, two Republican). If the vacancies are filled by members of those same parties, which is likely, and you put redistricting battles to the side, Republicans can only afford to lose two seats to maintain their majority.

    At this point, according to the Cook Political Report, there are 36 House seats that are either toss-ups or lean toward one party or the other. Of those, 18 are held by Republicans and 18 are Democratic seats. But zeroing in on the toss-ups alone, 14 are Republican, and only four are Democratic. And the political winds are blowing in Democrats' direction. Cook moved 18 seats in Democrats' direction a few weeks ago.

    The Senate: Senators win six-year terms, and roughly one-third of the Senate is up every election cycle. Republicans currently maintain a three-seat net advantage, 53-47. (Two independents caucus with the Democrats.) But given Trump is president, and Vice President Vance would come in to break ties, Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take control.

    This year, 35 Senate seats are up for grabs (22 Republican-held and 13 by Democrats). But the universe of competitive seats is actually much smaller — 25 seats are considered to be safely in the hands of the incumbent party (16 Republican, nine Democratic), according to Cook. That means only 10 seats are truly in play. Of those, six are held by Republicans, including Maine, North Carolina, Alaska, Ohio, Iowa and Texas. Four are Democratic: Georgia, Michigan, New Hampshire and Minnesota.

    The fights for both chambers will be closely watched, but the House is still considered Democrats' best chance for control of one of the chambers of Congress.

    The reasons for potential winds of change:

    1. President Trump is unpopular. 

    A low angle view of President Donald Trump, a man with light skin tone, wearing a dark blue suit and violet spotted tie, speaking to reporters holding and pointing microphones to him as he stands at a doorway on a plane.
    President Trump talks to reporters while aboard Air Force One on Friday en route to Palm Beach, Fla.
    (
    Samuel Corum
    /
    Getty Images
    )

    Almost nothing is a better predictor of electoral success in midterms than who's in power and how popular they are.

    Historically, midterms are not good for the president's party. Since World War II, the president's party has lost an average of 27 seats in the House and four in the Senate.

    "Even if it's a Democrat or a Republican, whoever wins the presidency has a hard time with the midterms," Trump said in Iowa late last month. He added, "It's crazy. You know, you'd think it would be like a 50-50 deal or something. It's like, for some reason — and this is Democrat, too — Democrat wins the presidency, for some reason, they lose the midterms."

    It's even worse when a president is below 50% job approval, as Trump has been for a while. When that's the case, the president's party has lost an average of 32 seats in the House. (This is mainly a House phenomenon. Presidents' parties have lost on average four Senate seats, regardless of approval rating.)

    Redistricting and the rise in safe House seats, though, has lessened the likelihood of wave elections that would bring huge swings toward one party or the other.

    Still, the popularity of the president is an important sign, and midterms are often referenda on the president's policies. Right now, Trump is under water, as evidenced by the latest NPR/PBS News/Marist poll out last week.

    It showed Trump with a 39% job approval rating. He's been under 40% in the poll since November. His policies on everything from immigration enforcement to tariffs and foreign policy are all unpopular.

    His voting coalition is fraying, too. Independents, voters under 30 and Latinos were key to Trump winning reelection in 2024. But they have slid away from him heavily. In the NPR poll, just 30% of independents and voters 18-29 approved of the job he's doing, along with just 38% of Latinos.

    For all of Trump's boasting, he is showing signs that he and the White House understand the vulnerable position he's in. He's changed his tone on immigration enforcement, for example, saying in an interview with NBC News that he's learned his administration can take a "softer touch" (though he blamed "bad publicity" rather than bad policy).

    2. The economic outlook is bleak.

    Americans continue to say the economy is their top concern.

    In the NPR poll, 54% of respondents said Trump's top priority should be lowering prices. Immigration was a distant second at 22%, though it was No. 1 for Republicans.

    Only 36% said they approved of Trump's handling of the economy, with a majority saying tariffs hurt the economy.

    A Pew Research Center survey also out last week found 72% rated the economy as "fair" or "poor."

    A plurality — 38% — said they expect the economy to get worse in the next year, while just 31% said it will be better, and 30% said it would be about the same. Majorities in both parties said they're very concerned about the cost of health care and the price of food and consumer goods.

    And, by a 52%-28% margin, respondents said Trump's policies have made things worse rather than better.

    3. Democrats continue to overperform in special elections. 

    With a win for a state Senate seat in Texas on Jan. 31, Democrats racked up yet another special election victory.

    Ordinarily, there wouldn't be that much attention on a state Senate race, but the eye-popping margin and the pattern of other Democratic overperformances in the past year made this one national news. Special elections can be good predictors of success or failure in the following midterm elections.

    In 2024, Trump won this Fort Worth, Texas-area seat by 17 points. But the Democratic candidate in this election won it by 14. That's a 31-point swing.

    Trump would rather it was ignored.

    "I'm not involved in that," he told reporters on Feb. 1. "That's a local Texas race."

    But Trump had given his "Complete and Total Endorsement" to the Republican in the race and put out three social media posts promoting her and urged Texans to get out and vote.

    It's just the latest example of elections over the past year, from special elections to November's off-year results, where Democrats have racked up wins and overperformed, often by double-digits.

    In fact, between House seats, the fall's gubernatorial races and this one, Democrats have overperformed 2024 margins by an average of almost 16 points.

    As they might say in Texas, Republicans' House majority is tighter than a wet boot.

    Loading...

    4. Republicans are retiring at faster rates than Democrats. 

    Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, a woman with light skin tone, blonde hair, wearing a black coat, speaks behind a wooden desk behind a nameplate that reads "Ms. Greene." There are more people, slightly out of focus, in the background and foreground.
    Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., speaks during a hearing with the House Committee on Homeland Security on Capitol Hill on Dec. 11, 2025. Greene has retired, leaving her seat open for a special election.
    (
    Anna Moneymaker
    /
    Getty Images
    )

    A whopping 51 members of the House so far have hung it up for this 2026 election cycle.

    It's a record pace, and, right now, it's more Republicans calling it quits — 30 to 21.

    Lots of factors go into this, including mid-decade redistricting and the lack of appeal of serving in Washington when little gets done and acrimony is as high as it is.

    But which party has more lawmakers who decide not to run for reelection is usually a pretty good indicator of which side is most concerned.

    What's more, the rate of reelection is very high for incumbents. Part of that is high name identification. Part of that is built-in financial advantages. Part of that is just that people check the box more often for who they know.

    When there are more open seats, especially in competitive places, parties and candidates have to spend more time recruiting candidates and more money trying to help them win — money that could be used to shore up already vulnerable officeholders.

    5. Democrats are leading on the congressional ballot test. 

    On average, Democrats have about a 5-point edge in polls asking people which party they'd rather see in control of Congress.

    That's often referred to as the congressional ballot test in surveys. Because more districts lean toward Republicans in the country, Democrats have generally needed a wider edge on this question.

    But that GOP advantage has narrowed in recent years. And, a year ago, Republicans were the ones leading on the congressional ballot, showing just how much the landscape has shifted in Democrats' favor.

    There are no guarantees, a lot can change, and the Democratic Party is less popular than the GOP in many polls — mostly because Democratic voters aren't thrilled with their own leaders. But, at this moment, Democrats have the advantage.

    As Cook's Erin Covey writes: "With only a few exceptions, midterm elections have been driven by backlash to the party in power — and the Democratic Party's unpopularity hasn't kept their voters from turning out in off-year elections.

    "If the election were held today, Republicans would need to win roughly three-quarters of the Toss Up races to keep control of the House ... . Though that's not impossible, it looks increasingly difficult."
    Copyright 2026 NPR