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Times Square's digital screens have nothing on the glaring warning signs for Republicans ahead of these upcoming midterm elections.

President Donald Trump, his policies and actions are unpopular. The GOP continues to lose special elections. Republicans are retiring at faster rates than Democrats. And people are saying they'd rather Democrats control Congress.

At this point, all of it adds up to trouble for the party in power.

The state of play: Democrats' hopes for taking over the House are more likely by the day, while the Senate remains a longer shot.

The House: All members of Congress face election every two years. Republicans currently have a 218-214 majority with three vacancies (one Democratic, two Republican). If the vacancies are filled by members of those same parties, which is likely, and you put redistricting battles to the side, Republicans can only afford to lose two seats to maintain their majority.

At this point, according to the Cook Political Report, there are 36 House seats that are either toss-ups or lean toward one party or the other. Of those, 18 are held by Republicans and 18 are Democratic seats. But zeroing in on the toss-ups alone, 14 are Republican, and only four are Democratic. And the political winds are blowing in Democrats' direction. Cook moved 18 seats in Democrats' direction a few weeks ago.

The Senate: Senators win six-year terms, and roughly one-third of the Senate is up every election cycle. Republicans currently maintain a three-seat net advantage, 53-47. (Two independents caucus with the Democrats.) But given Trump is president, and Vice President Vance would come in to break ties, Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take control.

This year, 35 Senate seats are up for grabs (22 Republican-held and 13 by Democrats). But the universe of competitive seats is actually much smaller — 25 seats are considered to be safely in the hands of the incumbent party (16 Republican, nine Democratic), according to Cook. That means only 10 seats are truly in play. Of those, six are held by Republicans, including Maine, North Carolina, Alaska, Ohio, Iowa and Texas. Four are Democratic: Georgia, Michigan, New Hampshire and Minnesota.

The fights for both chambers will be closely watched, but the House is still considered Democrats' best chance for control of one of the chambers of Congress.

The reasons for potential winds of change:

1. President Trump is unpopular. 

President Trump talks to reporters while aboard Air Force One on Friday en route to Palm Beach, Fla.

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Almost nothing is a better predictor of electoral success in midterms than who's in power and how popular they are.

Historically, midterms are not good for the president's party. Since World War II, the president's party has lost an average of 27 seats in the House and four in the Senate.

"Even if it's a Democrat or a Republican, whoever wins the presidency has a hard time with the midterms," Trump said in Iowa late last month. He added, "It's crazy. You know, you'd think it would be like a 50-50 deal or something. It's like, for some reason — and this is Democrat, too — Democrat wins the presidency, for some reason, they lose the midterms."

It's even worse when a president is below 50% job approval, as Trump has been for a while. When that's the case, the president's party has lost an average of 32 seats in the House. (This is mainly a House phenomenon. Presidents' parties have lost on average four Senate seats, regardless of approval rating.)

Redistricting and the rise in safe House seats, though, has lessened the likelihood of wave elections that would bring huge swings toward one party or the other.

Still, the popularity of the president is an important sign, and midterms are often referenda on the president's policies. Right now, Trump is under water, as evidenced by the latest NPR/PBS News/Marist poll out last week.

It showed Trump with a 39% job approval rating. He's been under 40% in the poll since November. His policies on everything from immigration enforcement to tariffs and foreign policy are all unpopular.

His voting coalition is fraying, too. Independents, voters under 30 and Latinos were key to Trump winning reelection in 2024. But they have slid away from him heavily. In the NPR poll, just 30% of independents and voters 18-29 approved of the job he's doing, along with just 38% of Latinos.

For all of Trump's boasting, he is showing signs that he and the White House understand the vulnerable position he's in. He's changed his tone on immigration enforcement, for example, saying in an interview with NBC News that he's learned his administration can take a "softer touch" (though he blamed "bad publicity" rather than bad policy).

2. The economic outlook is bleak.

Americans continue to say the economy is their top concern.

In the NPR poll, 54% of respondents said Trump's top priority should be lowering prices. Immigration was a distant second at 22%, though it was No. 1 for Republicans.

Only 36% said they approved of Trump's handling of the economy, with a majority saying tariffs hurt the economy.

A Pew Research Center survey also out last week found 72% rated the economy as "fair" or "poor."

A plurality — 38% — said they expect the economy to get worse in the next year, while just 31% said it will be better, and 30% said it would be about the same. Majorities in both parties said they're very concerned about the cost of health care and the price of food and consumer goods.

And, by a 52%-28% margin, respondents said Trump's policies have made things worse rather than better.

3. Democrats continue to overperform in special elections. 

With a win for a state Senate seat in Texas on Jan. 31, Democrats racked up yet another special election victory.

Ordinarily, there wouldn't be that much attention on a state Senate race, but the eye-popping margin and the pattern of other Democratic overperformances in the past year made this one national news. Special elections can be good predictors of success or failure in the following midterm elections.

In 2024, Trump won this Fort Worth, Texas-area seat by 17 points. But the Democratic candidate in this election won it by 14. That's a 31-point swing.

Trump would rather it was ignored.

"I'm not involved in that," he told reporters on Feb. 1. "That's a local Texas race."

But Trump had given his "Complete and Total Endorsement" to the Republican in the race and put out three social media posts promoting her and urged Texans to get out and vote.

It's just the latest example of elections over the past year, from special elections to November's off-year results, where Democrats have racked up wins and overperformed, often by double-digits.

In fact, between House seats, the fall's gubernatorial races and this one, Democrats have overperformed 2024 margins by an average of almost 16 points.

As they might say in Texas, Republicans' House majority is tighter than a wet boot.

4. Republicans are retiring at faster rates than Democrats. 

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., speaks during a hearing with the House Committee on Homeland Security on Capitol Hill on Dec. 11, 2025. Greene has retired, leaving her seat open for a special election.

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A whopping 51 members of the House so far have hung it up for this 2026 election cycle.

It's a record pace, and, right now, it's more Republicans calling it quits — 30 to 21.

Lots of factors go into this, including mid-decade redistricting and the lack of appeal of serving in Washington when little gets done and acrimony is as high as it is.

But which party has more lawmakers who decide not to run for reelection is usually a pretty good indicator of which side is most concerned.

What's more, the rate of reelection is very high for incumbents. Part of that is high name identification. Part of that is built-in financial advantages. Part of that is just that people check the box more often for who they know.

When there are more open seats, especially in competitive places, parties and candidates have to spend more time recruiting candidates and more money trying to help them win — money that could be used to shore up already vulnerable officeholders.

5. Democrats are leading on the congressional ballot test. 

On average, Democrats have about a 5-point edge in polls asking people which party they'd rather see in control of Congress.

That's often referred to as the congressional ballot test in surveys. Because more districts lean toward Republicans in the country, Democrats have generally needed a wider edge on this question.

But that GOP advantage has narrowed in recent years. And, a year ago, Republicans were the ones leading on the congressional ballot, showing just how much the landscape has shifted in Democrats' favor.

There are no guarantees, a lot can change, and the Democratic Party is less popular than the GOP in many polls — mostly because Democratic voters aren't thrilled with their own leaders. But, at this moment, Democrats have the advantage.

As Cook's Erin Covey writes: "With only a few exceptions, midterm elections have been driven by backlash to the party in power — and the Democratic Party's unpopularity hasn't kept their voters from turning out in off-year elections.

"If the election were held today, Republicans would need to win roughly three-quarters of the Toss Up races to keep control of the House ... . Though that's not impossible, it looks increasingly difficult."
Copyright 2026 NPR

Topline:

• How we got here: Roy held on to a strong lead over McKinney ever since polls closed and is currently ahead by more than twice as many votes. Roy will be a fresh face to the role after the incumbent city attorney, Hydee Feldstein Soto, was ousted in the June primary in a rare defeat of an elected city official. 

• What the candidates had to say: 
  
  • Roy said on social media Wednesday that election night was “a really good night for the people who believe that we should take care of one another, that we can stand up for our rights — even in what feels like an increasingly lawless world — and that we will achieve justice when we fight for it.”
  • McKinney posted on social media Thursday that he’s back in his old office at the Hall of Justice. “The run for City Attorney was an incredible journey, and I’m truly grateful for everyone who believed in me, supported me, and stood by my side,” McKinney wrote. "While I’m disappointed things didn’t turn out the way we hoped, I wouldn’t trade the experience for anything." He acknowledged Roy in a social media video earlier this week, describing her as a “hard worker” who put together a strong coalition of support. McKinney added that he would be “rooting for her.”
  • Neither campaign immediately responded to LAist’s requests for additional comment.
• What’s at stake: The city attorney runs an office of more than 550 lawyers representing L.A. in all legal matters, including filing lawsuits and defending against them. Roy, backed by powerful progressives like U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders, has vowed to take on the Trump administration in court.
• Go deeper: Read more about the city attorney's role and what's on the table for Roy's first term.

Construction of the green metal fence around MacArthur Park will begin Monday, Nov. 16, with work scheduled to continue through fall 2027.

The city announced the start date Nov. 4, saying crews will install an 8-foot fence around the park’s perimeter. Nearby residents and businesses can expect some noise, dust and vibration during construction, although the city said mitigation measures will be in place.

Crews will work Monday through Friday from 7 a.m. to 3:30 p.m., and the park will remain open while crews are working. 

The fence is the city’s latest attempt to tackle longstanding problems at MacArthur Park, including drug use, homelessness and crime.

The city first approved plans for the fence in October 2025, and the proposal has since drawn both support and criticism from residents and community groups.

Some say they hope the fence will make the park safer, while others question whether it will actually improve conditions there. Police and city officials say the fence will give them more control over the space and make it easier to enforce the law.

Ana Luz Vazquez, a street vendor near MacArthur Park, said her main concern about the fence is what will happen to the unhoused people who stay in the park throughout the day and whether the city plans to address that issue directly.

She is also concerned that construction during the day could affect her ability to work because of traffic, less parking availability and loud noise.

Vazquez said she would prefer construction to take place at night so it would have less of an impact on street vendors.

“If they’re working in the day then how are we supposed to come here and who is going to help us survive,” Vazquez said.

Construction will happen in two phases

Phase 1

• Alvarado St. from W. 6th St. to Wilshire Blvd.
• S. Park View St. from Wilshire Blvd. to W. 6th St.
• Wilshire Blvd. from Alvarado St. to S. Park View St.

Phase 2

• Alvarado St. from Wilshire Blvd. to W. 7th St.
• S. Park View St. from W. 7th St. to Wilshire Blvd.
• Wilshire Blvd. from S. Park View St. to Alvarado St.
• W. 7th St. from Alvarado St. to S. Park View St.

Existing trees will be protected and monitored during the work, according to the Department of Recreation and Parks. Traffic control measures will be in place during work hours, and crews will post temporary “No Parking” signs near active work areas in advance.

Services at the park are expected to remain the same throughout construction. The schedule could change because of weather or other unforeseen circumstances, according to the city.

The city has allocated $2.3 million for the project, but officials have not said whether that will cover the full cost.

After the fence is installed, the city plans a second phase focused on adding decorative elements. Officials have said residents will have an opportunity to provide input on the design.

Residents with questions or concerns about the project can contact Recreation and Parks at RAP.PublicInfo@lacity.org or 213-202-2700.

The post MacArthur Park fence construction to begin Nov. 16 appeared first on LA Local.

Airbnb spent millions to influence L.A.’s local elections this November, but lost in its most expensive races.

The short-term rental giant bet on Mayor Karen Bass with more than $4.1 million in spending toward groups supporting her. Airbnb also poured $2.1 million into the city attorney’s race to back candidate John McKinney.

On Thursday morning, Bass conceded the race to challenger Nithya Raman, as Raman continued to build a decisive lead. Marissa Roy was up in the city attorney race by an almost 2-to-1margin, and was all but guaranteed to defeat McKinney.

Both are progressives likely to push back against Airbnb as it angles to expand its presence in the city ahead of the 2028 Olympics and Paralympics.

“Their investments sure didn't pay off,” said Mike Bonin, a former L.A. City Council member and executive director of the Pat Brown Institute for Public Affairs.

The role of short-term rentals in L.A.’s future became a fault line in the mayoral campaign after Bass quietly put forward a proposal in her annual budget suggesting the city temporarily loosen regulations and allow Airbnb to prepay some of its taxes to help ease the city’s budget deficit.

Under current Los Angeles law, homeowners can use only their primary residence for short-term rentals. Airbnb wants the city to change its rules to allow homeowners to rent out second homes.

That proposal did not survive the budget process and is stuck in a City Council committee. But it didn’t stop Raman from jumping on Bass’ budget maneuver, calling it “a sweetheart deal that [Airbnb] spent hundreds of thousands of dollars lobbying City Hall to get” at a press conference.

Raman, now the mayor-elect, has said she’s against rolling back restrictions for short-term rentals ahead of the Olympics and will increase enforcement of the city’s current rules.

As city attorney, Marissa Roy is also likely to take a strong stance against short-term rental platforms. She has put forward a policy pledging to align with tenants’ unions and community organizations, and will take over an ongoing lawsuit against Airbnb over alleged price gouging during the L.A. fires.

She could also take action against companies including Airbnb over illegal listings. A 2022 report found that nearly half of Airbnb and Vrbo listings were out of compliance with the city’s home-sharing ordinance.

“A lot of people don’t realize the L.A. city attorney has the extraordinary power to sue any business for anything unlawful, unfair or deceptive,” Roy told AirTalk in September.

LAist reached out to Roy requesting an interview and comment on her approach to Airbnb, but did not hear back in time for publication.

Nathan Rotman, Airbnb’s director of policy strategy for North America, said in an emailed statement in the lead-up to the election that the company backed candidates working toward “local jobs, thriving small businesses, strong neighborhood services, and a tourism economy that benefits not just big corporate hotels but also everyday Angelenos who share their homes to make ends meet.”

Rotman also said Airbnb was supporting efforts to expand short-term rentals in Los Angeles to make sure tourists had places to stay in the summer of 2028.

While the citywide races seem all but decided, the outcome of the two open City Council seats remains too close to call. Airbnb weighed in on those elections, too, spending more than $1 million to back groups supporting Tim Gaspar in Council District 3 and more than $300,000 to support campaigners for Jose Ugarte in Council District 9.

As of Thursday, Gaspar was in a dead heat with Barri Worth Girvan, both moderate Democrats battling to replace Councilmember Bob Blumenfield, who represents part of the San Fernando Valley.

In CD-9, where the winner will replace Councilmember Curren Price to represent South L.A., Ugarte maintained the lead with 53% of the vote. His opponent, Estuardo Mazariegos, who is backed by the Democratic Socialists of America, had called for a moratorium on short-term rentals and campaigned by blasting Airbnb’s spending in the race.

On election night, Ugarte told LAist that he hadn’t made up his mind on the proposal still in City Council committee to allow more short-term rentals for the Olympics and planned to hold community meetings on the topic.

“The first thing I want to do is have those conversations with our community, sit down at the table, have Airbnb show up, and also have people that oppose Airbnb show up,” Ugarte said.

With Raman heading to the mayor’s office, Mike Bonin said Airbnb will now be looking to “count to 10” — the number needed in city council to override a mayoral veto.

Maloy Moore and Aaron Schrank contributed to this report.

Nithya Raman, a member of the Democratic Socialists of America who offered a message of hope to a city beset by crises, has beaten Karen Bass in the race for Los Angeles mayor, the first time an incumbent has been ousted from that office in nearly a quarter century.

Raman, who is of Indian descent, becomes the first South Asian mayor of L.A. She was elected to the City Council six years ago.

Bass conceded the race Thursday morning. At the time, she had 48% of the vote compared with Raman's 52%, according to the latest vote count.

In a video statement, Raman said she was "deeply honored" to be L.A.'s next mayor, and she thanked the people who knocked on doors, sent texts and made phone calls in support of her campaign.

Despite the sometimes contentious race she and Bass waged against one another, Raman commended Bass for her decades of service to the city and pledged to earn the trust of all Angelenos.

"And that work starts now, so that we can build housing that people can afford, parks for our children to play in, a transit system that can get people where they need to go, a city that is safe for its working people and its families, and a city government that is actually capable of delivering on its promises," she said in the statement.

"I love this city, and I love its people, and I cannot wait to get started on building a better future together with all of you," she continued. "Thank you so much, Los Angeles."

In her concession statement, Bass said it had been an honor to serve "the city that raised me." She said she had carried that responsibility with her every day since she was elected.

“While this is not the outcome we hoped for, the people of Los Angeles have spoken," she said. "I have called Councilmember Nithya Raman to congratulate her on her victory, and I have committed to ensuring a smooth and seamless transition. Moving this city forward is what Los Angeles needs from all of us.

“I love Los Angeles," she continued. "I believe in Los Angeles. And I will continue to ensure the promise of a better life belongs to all of us. Thank you.”

A champion of tenants' rights, Raman has promised she would tackle housing affordability, homelessness and police reform — the latter by removing Police Chief Jim McDonnell. She also has vowed to improve basic city services like pothole and streetlight repair.

A year ago, Raman wasn’t on anybody’s radar for mayor. A year earlier, she narrowly won reelection to a second term representing District 4, which stretches from Hollywood to Sherman Oaks.

Seeing polls that showed Bass was highly unpopular, she filed to run against her one-time ally on the last day possible, Feb. 7, stunning the political establishment.

She had endorsed Bass only weeks earlier.

Raman’s road to victory

No other political figure stepped up to challenge Bass. Not Rick Caruso, the billionaire developer who lost to Bass four years ago. Not County Supervisor Lindsey Horvath. So Raman did.

In the primary, Raman overcame a strong campaign by TV personality Spencer Pratt to finish second behind Bass. Pratt, who lost his home in the Palisades Fire, came in third.

In the general election, Raman beat Bass despite the political establishment’s backing of the mayor. Bass had the support of the Los Angeles County Democratic Party, the Chamber of Commerce and the L.A. County Federation of Labor. Airbnb also spent big on behalf of Bass, who supported lifting restrictions on the homestay industry in the run-up to the 2028 Olympics.

Raman’s election represented a repudiation of the status quo, a reflection of Angelenos’ deep dissatisfaction with the way the city was being governed. Polls showed support closely correlated with age, with younger voters supporting Raman.

Her victory coincided with a blue wave that swept across the country and came despite a barrage of negative ads against her by the Los Angeles Police Protective League, the union that represents rank-and-file officers. The ads focused on Raman’s opposition to an ordinance that allows the police to remove homeless encampments from around schools, daycare centers and other sensitive sites.

Raman said the program merely shuffled unhoused people down the street.

Raman had her share of powerful support. Three big unions broke with the Federation of Labor and backed her over Bass: the Western States Council of Carpenters, UNITE HERE Local 11 and the United Auto Workers.

Hedge fund manager Aaron Sosnick poured more than $8.5 million into ads supporting Raman and bashing Bass. Sosnick is an avid cyclist who wants to see more bike lanes in L.A. He funneled some of his money through Streets for All, a community group that ran ads against Bass.

Outside independent expenditures topped $16 million for Bass and against Raman, compared with $13 million for Raman and against Bass.

Raman also touted a massive door-knocking campaign that involved more than 11,000 volunteers knocking on more than 110,000 doors.

The election marked a generational shift in leaders. Bass is 73 years old and drew much of her support from older voters. Raman is 45 and enjoyed the overwhelming support from voters ages 30 to 39, according to a UC Berkeley/L.A. Times poll taken days before the election.

Mayor Karen Bass (left) and challenger Nithya Raman speak at a forum focused on environmental issues during the 2026 L.A. mayoral race.

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A relative newcomer to LA politics

Raman was born in India and moved to Louisiana with her family when she was 6. She earned a degree in social studies from Harvard and a master's in urban planning from MIT. Raman became a naturalized citizen at the age of 22.

Raman moved to L.A. in 2013 and founded a nonprofit neighborhood homeless services coalition. She also served as executive director of Time’s Up Entertainment, a now-defunct group formed in response to the #MeToo movement.

The mother of twin boys and wife of a Hollywood screenwriter burst onto the political scene when she ousted an incumbent City Council member in 2020 with the backing of the DSA.

In defeating Bass, the first Black woman to serve as L.A. mayor, Raman ousted an icon in progressive politics in L.A. Bass was a community organizer who for years fought against police abuse and the crack epidemic in South L.A. Later, she went on to become speaker of the California State Assembly and represent L.A. in Congress.

Congresswoman and Los Angeles Mayoral Candidate Karen Bass speaks on stage at the Los Angeles County Democratic Party Election Night party held at the Palladium in Hollywood on Tuesday, Nov. 8, 2022.

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In 2022, Bass was elected as a progressive Democrat with the backing of a coalition that looked a lot like the one she had this year, with the exception of the police union, which backed Caruso four years ago. She was able to portray herself as an outsider coming in to fix City Hall.

This year, however, Bass was the incumbent saddled with the city's problems. Her popularity plummeted in the wake of the Palisades Fire. She was out of town when it broke out and was sharply criticized for the Fire Department’s response.

Adding to her woes was the homelessness crisis. The latest count showed the number of unhoused people was growing after a two-year drop. Numerous audits found deep mismanagement of hundreds of millions of dollars by the regional Los Angeles Homeless Services Authority. Until recently, Bass sat on the board of the authority.

Her ouster is an ignominious end to an otherwise honorable career in public service.

In her concession statement, Bass thanked her supporters and her family, whom she said had stood beside her through every challenge.

“Over the past four years, we have taken on some of the most difficult challenges facing any major American city," Bass said. "Coming out of the pandemic, when encampments lined our streets and businesses were trying to reopen — we got Angelenos off the streets, made our neighborhoods safer, built more affordable housing, and created new opportunities for working families.

"We stood together through devastating wildfires and protected our immigrant communities when Donald Trump sent federal troops into our streets to spread fear and intimidation," she continued. "That progress belongs to all of us."

Despite her six years on the City Council, Raman enters the mayoral stage as an outsider promising to shake up an intransigent City Hall.

She may face an uphill battle. All but one of her colleagues on the council backed Bass, including three DSA members. City Controller Kenneth Mejia was the only elected official at City Hall to endorse Raman.

She may have an ally in the city attorney. DSA-backed Marissa Roy is leading Deputy District Attorney John McKinney in the race for that office.