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Times Square's digital screens have nothing on the glaring warning signs for Republicans ahead of these upcoming midterm elections.

President Donald Trump, his policies and actions are unpopular. The GOP continues to lose special elections. Republicans are retiring at faster rates than Democrats. And people are saying they'd rather Democrats control Congress.

At this point, all of it adds up to trouble for the party in power.

The state of play: Democrats' hopes for taking over the House are more likely by the day, while the Senate remains a longer shot.

The House: All members of Congress face election every two years. Republicans currently have a 218-214 majority with three vacancies (one Democratic, two Republican). If the vacancies are filled by members of those same parties, which is likely, and you put redistricting battles to the side, Republicans can only afford to lose two seats to maintain their majority.

At this point, according to the Cook Political Report, there are 36 House seats that are either toss-ups or lean toward one party or the other. Of those, 18 are held by Republicans and 18 are Democratic seats. But zeroing in on the toss-ups alone, 14 are Republican, and only four are Democratic. And the political winds are blowing in Democrats' direction. Cook moved 18 seats in Democrats' direction a few weeks ago.

The Senate: Senators win six-year terms, and roughly one-third of the Senate is up every election cycle. Republicans currently maintain a three-seat net advantage, 53-47. (Two independents caucus with the Democrats.) But given Trump is president, and Vice President Vance would come in to break ties, Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take control.

This year, 35 Senate seats are up for grabs (22 Republican-held and 13 by Democrats). But the universe of competitive seats is actually much smaller — 25 seats are considered to be safely in the hands of the incumbent party (16 Republican, nine Democratic), according to Cook. That means only 10 seats are truly in play. Of those, six are held by Republicans, including Maine, North Carolina, Alaska, Ohio, Iowa and Texas. Four are Democratic: Georgia, Michigan, New Hampshire and Minnesota.

The fights for both chambers will be closely watched, but the House is still considered Democrats' best chance for control of one of the chambers of Congress.

The reasons for potential winds of change:

1. President Trump is unpopular. 

President Trump talks to reporters while aboard Air Force One on Friday en route to Palm Beach, Fla.

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Almost nothing is a better predictor of electoral success in midterms than who's in power and how popular they are.

Historically, midterms are not good for the president's party. Since World War II, the president's party has lost an average of 27 seats in the House and four in the Senate.

"Even if it's a Democrat or a Republican, whoever wins the presidency has a hard time with the midterms," Trump said in Iowa late last month. He added, "It's crazy. You know, you'd think it would be like a 50-50 deal or something. It's like, for some reason — and this is Democrat, too — Democrat wins the presidency, for some reason, they lose the midterms."

It's even worse when a president is below 50% job approval, as Trump has been for a while. When that's the case, the president's party has lost an average of 32 seats in the House. (This is mainly a House phenomenon. Presidents' parties have lost on average four Senate seats, regardless of approval rating.)

Redistricting and the rise in safe House seats, though, has lessened the likelihood of wave elections that would bring huge swings toward one party or the other.

Still, the popularity of the president is an important sign, and midterms are often referenda on the president's policies. Right now, Trump is under water, as evidenced by the latest NPR/PBS News/Marist poll out last week.

It showed Trump with a 39% job approval rating. He's been under 40% in the poll since November. His policies on everything from immigration enforcement to tariffs and foreign policy are all unpopular.

His voting coalition is fraying, too. Independents, voters under 30 and Latinos were key to Trump winning reelection in 2024. But they have slid away from him heavily. In the NPR poll, just 30% of independents and voters 18-29 approved of the job he's doing, along with just 38% of Latinos.

For all of Trump's boasting, he is showing signs that he and the White House understand the vulnerable position he's in. He's changed his tone on immigration enforcement, for example, saying in an interview with NBC News that he's learned his administration can take a "softer touch" (though he blamed "bad publicity" rather than bad policy).

2. The economic outlook is bleak.

Americans continue to say the economy is their top concern.

In the NPR poll, 54% of respondents said Trump's top priority should be lowering prices. Immigration was a distant second at 22%, though it was No. 1 for Republicans.

Only 36% said they approved of Trump's handling of the economy, with a majority saying tariffs hurt the economy.

A Pew Research Center survey also out last week found 72% rated the economy as "fair" or "poor."

A plurality — 38% — said they expect the economy to get worse in the next year, while just 31% said it will be better, and 30% said it would be about the same. Majorities in both parties said they're very concerned about the cost of health care and the price of food and consumer goods.

And, by a 52%-28% margin, respondents said Trump's policies have made things worse rather than better.

3. Democrats continue to overperform in special elections. 

With a win for a state Senate seat in Texas on Jan. 31, Democrats racked up yet another special election victory.

Ordinarily, there wouldn't be that much attention on a state Senate race, but the eye-popping margin and the pattern of other Democratic overperformances in the past year made this one national news. Special elections can be good predictors of success or failure in the following midterm elections.

In 2024, Trump won this Fort Worth, Texas-area seat by 17 points. But the Democratic candidate in this election won it by 14. That's a 31-point swing.

Trump would rather it was ignored.

"I'm not involved in that," he told reporters on Feb. 1. "That's a local Texas race."

But Trump had given his "Complete and Total Endorsement" to the Republican in the race and put out three social media posts promoting her and urged Texans to get out and vote.

It's just the latest example of elections over the past year, from special elections to November's off-year results, where Democrats have racked up wins and overperformed, often by double-digits.

In fact, between House seats, the fall's gubernatorial races and this one, Democrats have overperformed 2024 margins by an average of almost 16 points.

As they might say in Texas, Republicans' House majority is tighter than a wet boot.

4. Republicans are retiring at faster rates than Democrats. 

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., speaks during a hearing with the House Committee on Homeland Security on Capitol Hill on Dec. 11, 2025. Greene has retired, leaving her seat open for a special election.

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A whopping 51 members of the House so far have hung it up for this 2026 election cycle.

It's a record pace, and, right now, it's more Republicans calling it quits — 30 to 21.

Lots of factors go into this, including mid-decade redistricting and the lack of appeal of serving in Washington when little gets done and acrimony is as high as it is.

But which party has more lawmakers who decide not to run for reelection is usually a pretty good indicator of which side is most concerned.

What's more, the rate of reelection is very high for incumbents. Part of that is high name identification. Part of that is built-in financial advantages. Part of that is just that people check the box more often for who they know.

When there are more open seats, especially in competitive places, parties and candidates have to spend more time recruiting candidates and more money trying to help them win — money that could be used to shore up already vulnerable officeholders.

5. Democrats are leading on the congressional ballot test. 

On average, Democrats have about a 5-point edge in polls asking people which party they'd rather see in control of Congress.

That's often referred to as the congressional ballot test in surveys. Because more districts lean toward Republicans in the country, Democrats have generally needed a wider edge on this question.

But that GOP advantage has narrowed in recent years. And, a year ago, Republicans were the ones leading on the congressional ballot, showing just how much the landscape has shifted in Democrats' favor.

There are no guarantees, a lot can change, and the Democratic Party is less popular than the GOP in many polls — mostly because Democratic voters aren't thrilled with their own leaders. But, at this moment, Democrats have the advantage.

As Cook's Erin Covey writes: "With only a few exceptions, midterm elections have been driven by backlash to the party in power — and the Democratic Party's unpopularity hasn't kept their voters from turning out in off-year elections.

"If the election were held today, Republicans would need to win roughly three-quarters of the Toss Up races to keep control of the House ... . Though that's not impossible, it looks increasingly difficult."
Copyright 2026 NPR

The Los Angeles County fires last year drove up insurance costs for many Californians. Now, a proposed settlement means some State Farm policyholders whose premiums rose won’t see additional increases, and others should even get refunds.

State Farm, the largest insurer in the state with about 20% market share, received approval for unprecedented emergency insurance rate increases in California last May. The company told the state that the billions of dollars it expected to pay out after the deadly fires placed it in financial peril.

The proposed deal among the state Insurance Department, consumer advocacy group Consumer Watchdog and State Farm, disclosed late last week, comes after months of public hearings convened by the insurance department and settlement talks.

Consumer Watchdog, which questioned the rate increases State Farm asked for, says the settlement saves the company’s California policyholders a total of $530 million. From the proposed settlement:

• Homeowners’ rate hikes will stay at the previously approved interim rate of 17% instead of the 30% the company sought.
• Condo owners who saw interim rate hikes of 15% will see their rates drop to an increase of 5.8%, and get refunds with interest dating back to June 1, 2025.
• Rental unit owners with interim rate hikes of 38% will see those increases drop to 32.8%, and receive refunds with interest. 
• Renter policyholders will see an increase of 15.65% vs. the interim rate hike of 15%.

In addition, State Farm has agreed not to cancel any new policies this year, and it won’t be canceling some policies it had planned not to renew in wildfire-affected areas. The insurance department characterized those provisions as important to the continued stability of the state’s insurance market, which has been beset with availability and affordability issues.

“When consumer advocates are able to challenge the data and present their own analysis, excessive requests are reduced and consumers are protected,” said Harvey Rosenfield in a statement. Rosenfield founded Consumer Watchdog and wrote Proposition 103, the voter-approved law that governs insurance in California.

State Farm has paid out more than $5 billion in claims from the L.A.-area fires so far, said spokesperson Tom Hartmann.

After consumer complaints and lawsuits, the insurance department is investigating the company’s handling of claims from the fires and expects results from that examination later this spring.

The agreement, which must be approved by an administrative law judge, also requires State Farm to undergo additional review of its rates in 2027. The company will be required to make a one time 2.5% premium discount available to renewing policyholders if its ratio of premiums to available cash reaches a certain level; Consumer Watchdog litigation director Will Pletcher said the deal will give the group more timely access to the company’s annual financial statements to help keep it accountable.

The insurance department expects the judge to decide on the settlement by April 7. Insurance Commissioner Ricardo Lara will then review the judge’s decision and have the final say.

This article was originally published on CalMatters and was republished under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives license.

Iran's state media issued what it said was a statement by Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, vowing to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed and keep up attacks on U.S. bases in the region, as the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran entered its 13th day.

It was purported to be the new leader's first statement since he succeeded his father Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in an Israeli strike on the first day of the war.

The statement said Iran will avenge the blood of its "martyrs," including the victims of a March 1 attack on a girls school in the city of Minab, which Iranian officials say killed at least 165 people, many of them children. NPR has confirmed the U.S. military is investigating how it could have targeted the school.

The Iranian statement said the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping route for a fifth of the world's oil supply, should remain closed. It said Iran continues to believe in friendship with its neighbors but will continue targeting U.S. bases in the region.

"The lever of blocking the Strait of Hormuz must undoubtedly continue to be used.," the statement said, according to an English version published by Tasnim News Agency, run by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard.

It's unclear if the statement was from Mojtaba Khamenei himself. Another person was heard reading out the remarks on Iranian state media, with a photo of Khamenei posted on the TV screen, as it was broadcast around the world.

There's been speculation about the leader's current condition and whereabouts. An Israeli official, speaking on condition of anonymity because they weren't authorized to speak publicly, told NPR that Khamenei was lightly injured early in the war.

This is a developing story that will be updated.

Here are other major updates about the conflict.

To jump to specific areas of coverage, use the links below:

Attacks on vessels | Oil stockpiles | Strikes across the Gulf | Israel-Hezbollah escalation | Iranian school attack

Two oil tankers hit in Iraqi waters

Two oil tankers were hit in Iraqi territorial waters near the southern port area of Basra, Iraqi officials said Thursday. It is the first oil-related strike reported in Iraq's waters during more than a week of war, in another sign of the conflict's escalation.

Iran, a critical ally of Iraq, took responsibility for attacking one of the tankers, which it said was owned by the U.S.

A port official said the attack targeted vessels near Basra's port approaches, and Iraq's security spokesman described it as sabotage.

Iraqi officials said one person was killed, and 38 crew members were rescued, with search operations continuing.

Iran has stepped up attacks on energy infrastructure and commercial shipping in response to U.S. and Israeli strikes, warning that the world should brace for oil prices to double.

— Jane Arraf

U.S. and allies to release record oil stockpiles  

The U.S. confirmed it will release 172 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve as part of a coordinated International Energy Agency (IEA) release of 400 million barrels from emergency stockpiles.

The U.S. contribution amounts to roughly 40% of the total, to be released gradually over about four months.

The IEA's executive director, Fatih Birol, said the goal is to keep the supply of oil flowing as the conflict disrupts shipping routes and energy infrastructure. But analysts warn stockpile releases can only partially offset prolonged disruption in the Gulf, where roughly a fifth of global oil consumption normally transits the Strait of Hormuz.

On Wednesday, President Trump said the price spike is temporary and said the reserve release would push prices down.

According to the popular app Gas Buddy, the current average cost of regular unleaded is now up to $3.61 a gallon.

- Camila Domonoske

Iran continues attacks on Gulf States

Countries in the Gulf reported new incoming threats and interceptions Thursday, as Iran continued firing drones and missiles across the region – including at U.S. military bases.

The UAE's defense ministry said air defenses were responding to Iranian missile and drone attacks, and that sounds heard in parts of the country were from intercepts.

Kuwait's defense ministry said its air defenses intercepted ballistic missiles and drones that penetrated the northern and southern parts of the country's airspace.

Saudi Arabia said it intercepted and destroyed drones headed toward the Shaybah oil field.

The United Nations Security Council adopted a resolution on Wednesday condemning Iran for recent attacks across the Persian Gulf region, calling them a "breach of international law" and "a serious threat to international peace and security."

- Rebecca Rosman

Israel launches large strikes on Hezbollah sites in Beirut after rocket fire into Israel

People inspect homes damaged by a projectile launched from Lebanon, in Haniel central Israel, on Thursday.

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The militant group Hezbollah launched its biggest rocket attack against Israel since the start of the war with Iran. The Israeli military said the Iranian-backed group fired heavy volleys toward northern Israel overnight into Thursday, triggering interceptions and sending residents repeatedly into shelters.

The Israeli military responded by launching more attacks against what it said were Hezbollah launch sites and command infrastructure.

Huge booms were heard across the capital and large black smoke billowed from the Dahieh neighborhood in south Beirut, while an attack in central Beirut – where thousands of people are displaced – killed 8 people and injured 31, according to Lebanese officials.

Wide evacuation orders for south Lebanon and Beirut's southern suburbs have displaced at least 800,000 people so far, according to the Lebanese government.

Lebanon, which does not have diplomatic ties with Israel, has unusually called for direct talks with Israel to end the escalating fighting with Hezbollah. Israel has not officially responded.

Israeli strikes on Iran have continued, with Iran firing missiles at Israel intermittently, including overnight.

Israeli military officials say about half of the missiles Iran has launched at Israel have carried cluster warheads, which spread out into smaller bombs over a wider area – increasing the risk to civilians.

- Daniel Estrin, Hadeel Al-Shalchi and Rebecca Rosman

Pentagon: Preliminary assessment suggests U.S. likely responsible for strike on Iranian school

The Pentagon has opened a formal investigation into the missile strike on an Iranian girls school that killed at least 165 civilians, many of them children, after a preliminary assessment suggested the U.S. was at fault, according to a U.S. official who was not authorized to speak publicly. The investigation is expected to take months and will include interviews with all those involved, from planners and commanders to those who carried out the strike.

If a U.S. role in the attack is confirmed, it would rank among the military's most deadly incidents involving civilians in decades. Congress created a special Pentagon office to prevent the accidental targeting of civilians but it was dramatically scaled back by Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth soon after he took office last year.

"This investigation is ongoing. As we have said, unlike the terrorist Iranian regime, the United States does not target civilians," said White House spokesperson Anna Kelly.

The Pentagon did not respond to a request for comment.

NPR previously reported — based on commercial satellite imagery and independent expert analysis — that the strike was more extensive than initially reported and appeared consistent with a precision strike on a nearby military complex, raising questions about whether outdated targeting information contributed to the tragedy.

- Tom Bowman, Kat Lonsdorf, Geoff Brumfiel

Rebecca Rosman contributed to this report from Paris, Jane Arraf from Erbil, Iraq, Hadeel Al-Shalchi from Beirut, Daniel Estrin from Tel Aviv and Camila Domonoske, Tom Bowman, Kat Lonsdorf and Geoff Brumfiel from Washington.
Copyright 2026 NPR

The story first appeared on The LA Local.

If you’re a soccer fan — or just a fan of South Korean phenom Son Heung-min — you may have heard that the Los Angeles Football Club planned to put up a larger-than-life mural of the footballer in Koreatown last month. But the mural has yet to appear. 

LAFC planned to reveal the mural during the launch of their 2026/2027 jersey at The LINE Hotel. Now the reveal has been pushed back to sometime in June. 

The delay stems from issues with the city’s mural approval process, at least according to city officials. 

Gabriel Cifarelli, a spokesperson for the Los Angeles Department of Cultural Affairs, said they received a mural registration application for the site. But the department said it could not issue a notice to proceed because the application was “ineligible and incomplete” under the city’s mural ordinance and administrative rules.

“DCA staff offered the applicant advice and further guidance, and remains available for questions,” Cifarelli said. 

If a mural includes a team logo it is considered an advertisement and not original artwork, according to the city department. In that case, the permit must be issued through the city’s Building and Safety Department.

A new application has not been submitted through the mural program, Cifarelli said, and it was not immediately clear whether LAFC applied for a permit through the Building and Safety Department. 

LAFC spokesperson Danny Sanchez didn’t confirm if a new permit has been submitted.

“The mural unveil was rescheduled to June to better align with World Cup festivities,” Sanchez said. 

Dave Young Kim was commissioned to paint the mural and previously painted a Son mural on the side of the Crosby building in Koreatown in October, but that was only up for a few weeks.

He still plans to paint the mural on The LINE Hotel in June.

“I’m assuming at this point, LAFC is likely trying to line it up for a more opportune time,” said Kim. “The mural was originally supposed to line up with the launch of the new jersey so something similar.”

Leo Hernandez, 35, said he hopes the mural goes up before the World Cup.

“I didn’t know it was pushed back all the way to June,” he said. “I’ll be in Mexico for the World Cup.”

Hernandez, who goes by “El Soccer Guy” on Instagram and has nearly 50,000 followers, has been attending LAFC games since 2018. He said Son’s arrival to L.A. has brought a new wave of fans to the club.

“I’ve never seen so many Koreans,” he said. “He’s bringing a whole new community to LAFC. I don’t know if they love soccer or they love Son or both, but it’s amazing to see.”

“Son is starting to be my favorite on the team,” he added. “He’s so good. He wants the team to shine. And I love his positivity and energy.” 

The Marvel Cinematic Universe is all about people with superpowers living in a world very much like our own.

And there’s a lot of real Los Angeles mixed into the recent MCU series “Wonder Man,” now on Disney+, which makes for a version of the MCU that feels a little more grounded in reality, especially for Angelenos.

It's an action-comedy about two struggling actors also dealing with superhuman forces and secret government agencies. Think The Studio meets Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D.

Sir Ben Kingsley reprises his Iron Man 3 character Trevor Slattery, the messy British actor hired to play a bad guy called The Mandarin. And Yahya Abdul-Mateen II plays Simon Williams, aka Wonder Man.

Through their adventures trying to book the gig-of-a-lifetime while surviving the perils of the MCU, L.A. landmarks and cultural references abound, and ground the series in a relatability for many Angelenos, including lots of inside jokes for those working in the entertainment industry.

3 cultural references that make Wonder Man feel like real Los Angeles

Historic places, some we’ve had to part with

There’s a series of roughly 100-year-old small, independent movie houses used as locations in Wonder Man — the Eagle Theatre now home to Vidiots, Westwood's Village Theater now operated by American Cinematheque (with views of The Bruin Theater across the street), and the Highland Theatre which closed in 2024.

A scene from 'Wonder Man' on Disney +.

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Speaking of iconic L.A. spots breaking local hearts, the vintage bar within Echo Park’s Taix French Restaurant was used as an interior location for the series. Taix is closing at the end of the month to make way for new development.

“Taix, the Highland Park Theatre — these places that it was only three years ago were there,” Wonder Man showrunner Andrew Guest told LAist, “a lot of these establishments sadly, are not surviving. And this town is in a rough, rough place.”

(Though actor/director Kristen Stewart recently said in an interview with Architectural Digest that she bought The Highland Theatre and is restoring the building.)

L.A. traffic (especially around the Hollywood Bowl on a performance night)

Traffic is part of life in Los Angeles and with so many scenes shot in Hollywood, even the main characters of Wonder Man must experience that bumper-to-bumper frustration.

Though, because it is a TV show, they were able to indulge in the fantasy of beating that traffic in a way that in reality would be highly dangerous (and illegal).

“We got to shut down Sunset Boulevard for a little while to shoot a car going onto the sidewalk in front of the Palladium,” said Guest. And surprisingly, he explained, they didn’t have to shoot in the middle of the night to make the shot happen: “That was Friday night…. We didn't close all lanes of traffic. The street was open. We were shooting while Los Angeles was still going strong.”

The scene also references the frequent traffic back up during big shows at the Hollywood Bowl, even earning the show a social media repost of the scene from Chaka Khan.

Having family and friends 45 minutes away, who you rarely visit

Wonder Man includes an episode titled Pacoima where the main character visits his family and childhood home.

“My wife grew up in Chatsworth, and one of the things I found fascinating about her experience growing up there was that many of her friends and their families never went to Los Angeles,” said Guest.

“The idea that Simon grew up close to, but far enough away that Hollywood and Los Angeles did not feel like they were part of his life…so when he moved to the city, Pacoima is not a place he goes to a lot. And I feel like that's a part of L.A. that is true to this city. That doesn't get explored a lot and felt like it was another detail that we got to sort of throw into the show.”

There’s lots of other Southern California. references to enjoy from the Talmadge Apartments, an historic renaissance revival building on Wilshire Blvd., a mural of Danny Trejo, and even a cameo from Gisellle Fernandes, real-life L.A. broadcaster for Spectrum 1 News.

Should you get lost in the multi-verse, at least this L.A will be pretty familiar.

BONUS: Could there be a Season 2 of Wonder Man? And would it still be set in L.A.?

Guest couldn’t confirm anything about a possible Season 2, but told LAist, “It’s still on the table as an option, potentially."

As for whether a potential Season 2 would also film in Los Angeles and continue to highlight the city in new ways, Guest said it’s occurred to him that one of the best ways to write about Hollywood could be “ to send our show somewhere else because everybody in this town who's working has to move — whether it be Budapest or London or Ireland or Vancouver — very little is actually happening in this town. And that’s a story that I don’t think is being told right now about L.A.”

Season 1 of ‘Wonder Man’ is now streaming on Disney+.

Watch Julia Paskin's interview with actor/comedian X Mayo, who plays Simon Williams' agent in 'Wonder Man':