Times Square's digital screens have nothing on the glaring warning signs for Republicans ahead of these upcoming midterm elections.
Why now: President Donald Trump, his policies and actions are unpopular. The GOP continues to lose special elections. Republicans are retiring at faster rates than Democrats. And people are saying they'd rather Democrats control Congress. At this point, all of it adds up to trouble for the party in power.
Democrats are leading on the congressional ballot test: On average, Democrats have about a 5-point edge in polls asking people which party they'd rather see in control of Congress. That's often referred to as the congressional ballot test in surveys. Because more districts lean toward Republicans in the country, Democrats have generally needed a wider edge on this question.
Read on... for more warning signs for the Republican party.
Times Square's digital screens have nothing on the glaring warning signs for Republicans ahead of these upcoming midterm elections.
President Donald Trump, his policies and actions are unpopular. The GOP continues to lose special elections. Republicans are retiring at faster rates than Democrats. And people are saying they'd rather Democrats control Congress.
At this point, all of it adds up to trouble for the party in power.
The state of play: Democrats' hopes for taking over the House are more likely by the day, while the Senate remains a longer shot.
The House: All members of Congress face election every two years. Republicans currently have a 218-214 majority with three vacancies (one Democratic, two Republican). If the vacancies are filled by members of those same parties, which is likely, and you put redistricting battles to the side, Republicans can only afford to lose two seats to maintain their majority.
At this point, according to the Cook Political Report, there are 36 House seats that are either toss-ups or lean toward one party or the other. Of those, 18 are held by Republicans and 18 are Democratic seats. But zeroing in on the toss-ups alone, 14 are Republican, and only four are Democratic. And the political winds are blowing in Democrats' direction. Cook moved 18 seats in Democrats' direction a few weeks ago.
The Senate: Senators win six-year terms, and roughly one-third of the Senate is up every election cycle. Republicans currently maintain a three-seat net advantage, 53-47. (Two independents caucus with the Democrats.) But given Trump is president, and Vice President Vance would come in to break ties, Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take control.
This year, 35 Senate seats are up for grabs (22 Republican-held and 13 by Democrats). But the universe of competitive seats is actually much smaller — 25 seats are considered to be safely in the hands of the incumbent party (16 Republican, nine Democratic), according to Cook. That means only 10 seats are truly in play. Of those, six are held by Republicans, including Maine, North Carolina, Alaska, Ohio, Iowa and Texas. Four are Democratic: Georgia, Michigan, New Hampshire and Minnesota.
The fights for both chambers will be closely watched, but the House is still considered Democrats' best chance for control of one of the chambers of Congress.
The reasons for potential winds of change:
1. President Trump is unpopular.
President Trump talks to reporters while aboard Air Force One on Friday en route to Palm Beach, Fla.
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Samuel Corum
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Almost nothing is a better predictor of electoral success in midterms than who's in power and how popular they are.
Historically, midterms are not good for the president's party. Since World War II, the president's party has lost an average of 27 seats in the House and four in the Senate.
"Even if it's a Democrat or a Republican, whoever wins the presidency has a hard time with the midterms," Trump said in Iowa late last month. He added, "It's crazy. You know, you'd think it would be like a 50-50 deal or something. It's like, for some reason — and this is Democrat, too — Democrat wins the presidency, for some reason, they lose the midterms."
It's even worse when a president is below 50% job approval, as Trump has been for a while. When that's the case, the president's party has lost an average of 32 seats in the House. (This is mainly a House phenomenon. Presidents' parties have lost on average four Senate seats, regardless of approval rating.)
Still, the popularity of the president is an important sign, and midterms are often referenda on the president's policies. Right now, Trump is under water, as evidenced by the latest NPR/PBS News/Marist poll out last week.
It showed Trump with a 39% job approval rating. He's been under 40% in the poll since November. His policies on everything from immigration enforcement to tariffs and foreign policy are all unpopular.
His voting coalition is fraying, too. Independents, voters under 30 and Latinos were key to Trump winning reelection in 2024. But they have slid away from him heavily. In the NPR poll, just 30% of independents and voters 18-29 approved of the job he's doing, along with just 38% of Latinos.
For all of Trump's boasting, he is showing signs that he and the White House understand the vulnerable position he's in. He's changed his tone on immigration enforcement, for example, saying in an interview with NBC News that he's learned his administration can take a "softer touch" (though he blamed "bad publicity" rather than bad policy).
2. The economic outlook is bleak.
Americans continue to say the economy is their top concern.
In the NPR poll, 54% of respondents said Trump's top priority should be lowering prices. Immigration was a distant second at 22%, though it was No. 1 for Republicans.
Only 36% said they approved of Trump's handling of the economy, with a majority saying tariffs hurt the economy.
A plurality — 38% — said they expect the economy to get worse in the next year, while just 31% said it will be better, and 30% said it would be about the same. Majorities in both parties said they're very concerned about the cost of health care and the price of food and consumer goods.
And, by a 52%-28% margin, respondents said Trump's policies have made things worse rather than better.
3. Democrats continue to overperform in special elections.
Ordinarily, there wouldn't be that much attention on a state Senate race, but the eye-popping margin and the pattern of other Democratic overperformances in the past year made this one national news. Special elections can be good predictors of success or failure in the following midterm elections.
In 2024, Trump won this Fort Worth, Texas-area seat by 17 points. But the Democratic candidate in this election won it by 14. That's a 31-point swing.
Trump would rather it was ignored.
"I'm not involved in that," he told reporters on Feb. 1. "That's a local Texas race."
It's just the latest example of elections over the past year, from special elections to November's off-year results, where Democrats have racked up wins and overperformed, often by double-digits.
In fact, between House seats, the fall's gubernatorial races and this one, Democrats have overperformed 2024 margins by an average of almost 16 points.
4. Republicans are retiring at faster rates than Democrats.
Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., speaks during a hearing with the House Committee on Homeland Security on Capitol Hill on Dec. 11, 2025. Greene has retired, leaving her seat open for a special election.
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Anna Moneymaker
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A whopping 51 members of the House so far have hung it up for this 2026 election cycle.
It's a record pace, and, right now, it's more Republicans calling it quits — 30 to 21.
Lots of factors go into this, including mid-decade redistricting and the lack of appeal of serving in Washington when little gets done and acrimony is as high as it is.
But which party has more lawmakers who decide not to run for reelection is usually a pretty good indicator of which side is most concerned.
What's more, the rate of reelection is very high for incumbents. Part of that is high name identification. Part of that is built-in financial advantages. Part of that is just that people check the box more often for who they know.
When there are more open seats, especially in competitive places, parties and candidates have to spend more time recruiting candidates and more money trying to help them win — money that could be used to shore up already vulnerable officeholders.
5. Democrats are leading on the congressional ballot test.
On average, Democrats have about a 5-point edge in polls asking people which party they'd rather see in control of Congress.
That's often referred to as the congressional ballot test in surveys. Because more districts lean toward Republicans in the country, Democrats have generally needed a wider edge on this question.
But that GOP advantage has narrowed in recent years. And, a year ago, Republicans were the ones leading on the congressional ballot, showing just how much the landscape has shifted in Democrats' favor.
There are no guarantees, a lot can change, and the Democratic Party is less popular than the GOP in many polls — mostly because Democratic voters aren't thrilled with their own leaders. But, at this moment, Democrats have the advantage.
As Cook's Erin Covey writes: "With only a few exceptions, midterm elections have been driven by backlash to the party in power — and the Democratic Party's unpopularity hasn't kept their voters from turning out in off-year elections.
"If the election were held today, Republicans would need to win roughly three-quarters of the Toss Up races to keep control of the House ... . Though that's not impossible, it looks increasingly difficult."
Copyright 2026 NPR
David Wagner
covers housing in Southern California, a place where the lack of affordable housing contributes to homelessness.
Published June 1, 2026 9:00 AM
The L.A. Metro's Wilshire/La Brea stop on the D Line is one of the stations listed on the SB 79 map.
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Kayla Bartkowski
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Los Angeles Times via Getty Images
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Topline:
Starting July 1, a new state law will push cities to increase housing development in neighborhoods located near major transit stops. When the law was signed by Gov. Gavin Newsom last year, cities began taking their best guess at where exactly those sites would be.
What’s new: Now, the list is out. On Monday, the Southern California Association of Governments published its official map showing where new housing density will be allowed under Senate Bill 79.
Why it matters: The law’s impact on L.A. neighborhoods near transit lines — including those zoned only for single-family homes — has been heavily debated, especially in the race for Los Angeles mayor. The tallest buildings allowed under SB 79 will be nine stories, as long as they are located within 200 feet of a Metro B or D-line stop. More common will be the “Tier 2” zones around light rail and dedicated bus lane stops, which will allow buildings up to eight stories tall within 200 feet of the stop.
Read on… to learn why Orange County is excluded for now, but will be added to the map soon.
Starting July 1, a new state law will push cities to increase housing development in neighborhoods located near major transit stops.
When the law was signed by Gov. Gavin Newsom last year, Southern California cities began taking their best guess at where exactly those sites would be.
Now, the list is out. On Monday, the Southern California Association of Governments, known as SCAG, published its official map showing where new housing density will be allowed under Senate Bill 79.
Elizabeth Carbajal, SCAG’s deputy director of land use, said local officials sought many clarifications from state leaders in order to be sure that the map would accurately reflect the Legislature’s intent.
“There were a lot of questions after the statute was signed,” Carbajal said. “The clarifications helped further define bus service, as well as pedestrian access points.”
SB 79 has become a political lightning rod
The law’s impact on neighborhoods near transit lines — including those zoned only for single-family homes — has been heavily debated, especially in the race for Los Angeles mayor.
Mayor Karen Bass asked Newsom to veto SB 79, and she continues to oppose adding apartments within the nearly three-quarters of city land reserved for single-family homes.
City councilmember Nithya Raman, who is challenging Bass in the upcoming election, declined to oppose SB 79 and has said some single-family neighborhoods will need to accept more density.
Spencer Pratt, the former reality TV star running for mayor, made waves on social media when he falsely claimed last year that SB 79 would bring high-rises to the Pacific Palisades, where his home burned down. The official SCAG map confirms that SB 79 will have no impact on the neighborhood.
In response to SB 79, housing opponents in some areas have started focusing their efforts on killing plans for expanded public transit. Responding to public pressure, Burbank officials have stalled construction plans for local portions of a rapid bus line from North Hollywood to Pasadena. L.A. Metro is now suing Burbank over that move.
Where will new housing go? And how much will be allowed?
The rules of SB 79 are complex.
The tallest buildings allowed under SB 79 will be nine stories, as long as they are located within 200 feet of a Metro B or D-line stop. These stations qualify as “Tier 1” stops under SB 79, which puts the tallest buildings near heavy rail lines, which in L.A. only applies to the B and D-line subways.
More common will be the “Tier 2” zones around light rail and dedicated bus lane stops, which will allow buildings up to eight stories tall within 200 feet of those stops.
Height limits step down in areas further out from the station. In “Tier 2” zones, buildings up to six stories tall will be allowed within a quarter-mile of the stop, and buildings up to five stories will be allowed within a half-mile.
Neighborhoods near two Metrolink commuter rail stations, in Burbank and Glendale, will also qualify as “Tier 2” zones.
Change won’t necessarily come overnight
New housing won’t necessarily be coming to those zones immediately. Under SB 79, cities have the ability to put off full implementation until 2030 by making their own choices about where to allow more housing.
“Cities can develop alternative plans and delay implementation,” said Philip Law, a SCAG deputy planning director. “The map is not intended to reflect those situations.”
The city of L.A. has taken the delay approach, with the City Council recently voting to allow buildings up to four stories tall around 55 targeted transit stops. This would let the city put off full implementation of SB 79.
The new SCAG map shows no impact in Orange County. The region does not yet qualify as an “urban transit county” under the state law. However, the impending completion of the OC Streetcar through Santa Ana and Garden Grove, expected later this year, will make Orange County eligible for SB 79.
Once the OC Streetcar opens, SCAG plans to update their map to include Orange County, Carbajal said.
Check out Marilyn Monroe: Hollywood Icon at the Academy Museum of Motion Pictures to celebrate the movie star's 100th birthday.
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Emily Shur
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Academy Museum Foundation
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In this edition:
Pride Night at Angel Stadium, Marilyn Monroe at 100, Stop Making Sense and more of the best things to do this week.
Highlights:
Celebrate the biggest Hollywood star of all time, Marilyn Monroe, on what would be her 100th birthday: June 1. The special exhibit Marilyn Monroe: Hollywood Icon just opened at the Academy Museum and includes memorabilia, film clips and costumes that explore Monroe’s impact on the studio system, her iconic style and much more.
The Righteous Gemstones actress Edi Patterson brings her bold improv to the Largo for her new show, Playgirl — a full-length play completely improvised right on the spot. Yes, she’s playing all the characters.
Kick off Pride Month with Pride Night at Angel Stadiumas the Angels take on the Colorado Rockies. You’ll score an Angels Pride jersey and can enjoy the pregame Pride Village.
What, you think I’d let you miss an opportunity to see Stop Making Sense on the big screen? And lose all my indie cool cred? Never. Talking Heads’ classic 1984 music film (directed by the late, great Jonathan Demme) will be shown at Vidiots in 4K digital to celebrate 40 years of everyone’s favorite film nerd superstore.
Tuesday is Election Day, so get ready to drop off your ballot or head to your polling place — but not before consulting the LAist Voter Game Plan if you still have some research to do about the most competitive races in your area, whether that’s city council, mayor or even the state-wide governor’s primary.
And happy Pride! We’ll be featuring tons of LGBTQ+ events this month, so stay tuned.
Licorice Pizza’s Lyndsey Parker has your music picks for the week, including: Monday, Las Vegas rockers the Cab will be at the Fonda Theatre, and Scottish indie-pop darlings Camera Obscura will play their first of two shows at Pacific Electric.
Tuesday, new-wave legend Joe Jackson will be looking sharp at the Orpheum Theatre, British-Sudanese R&B artist Elmiene will play the Wiltern and Australian buzz band Vacations will begin their three-night run at the Troubadour.
On Wednesday, alt-country harpist Mikaela Davis is at Sid The Cat Auditorium, and the Grammy Museum hosts a “Reelin’ in the Early Years of Steely Dan” panel featuring Licorice Pizza’s Jeff “Skunk” Baxter.
Thursday’s a big night for new-wave fans with the triple-bill of the Human League, Soft Cell and Alison Moyet at the Hollywood Bowl, while Vince Staples is at the El Rey. Plus, at 4 p.m. Licorice Pizza is hosting a Q&A with legendary rock photographer Henry Diltz at the record store.
Wednesday, June 3, 6:30 p.m. Angel Stadium 2000 E. Gene Autry Way, Anaheim COST: FROM $35; MORE INFO
Catch the Angels as they take on the Rockies for Pride Night.
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Julio Aguilar
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Getty Images
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Kick off Pride Month with Pride Night at Angel Stadium, as the Angels take on the Colorado Rockies. You’ll score an Angels Pride jersey and can enjoy the pregame Pride Village.
Marilyn Monroe: Hollywood Icon
Ongoing Academy Museum 6067 Wilshire Blvd., Miracle Mile COST: INCLUDED WITH GENERAL ADMISSION, $25; MORE INFO
Marilyn Monroe: Hollywood Icon is at the Academy Museum.
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Emily Shur
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Academy Museum Foundation
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She may have sung happy birthday to Mr. President, but it’s Marilyn’s turn now. Celebrate the biggest Hollywood star of all time, Marilyn Monroe, on what would be her 100th birthday: June 1. The special exhibit Marilyn Monroe: Hollywood Icon just opened at the Academy Museum, and it includes memorabilia, film clips and costumes that explore Monroe’s impact on the studio system, her iconic style and much more. From her costumes in Some Like It Hot to the pink dress by William Travilla in Gentlemen Prefer Blondes to letters and personal materials, the exhibit takes a complete look at Norma Jeane’s legacy.
Stop Making Sense
Monday June 1, 7:30 p.m. Vidiots 4884 N. Eagle Rock Blvd., Eagle Rock COST: WALK-UP TICKETS AVAILABLE; MORE INFO
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What, you think I’d let you miss an opportunity to see Stop Making Sense on the big screen? And lose all my indie cool cred? Never. Talking Heads’ classic 1984 music film (directed by the late, great Jonathan Demme) will be shown at Vidiots in 4K digital to celebrate 40 years of everyone’s favorite film nerd superstore.
The Drop: Dogstar
Tuesday, June 2, 7:30 p.m. Grammy Museum 800 W Olympic Blvd., Downtown L.A. COST: SOLD OUT BUT WAITLIST AVAILABLE; MORE INFO
Keanu Reeves will perform with his band, Dogstar, this week.
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Francesco Prandoni
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Getty Images
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Keanu Reeves’s other career — as the rockstar lead singer of Dogstar — has taken shape and developed a loyal fanbase over the years. Join the band for an evening of stories, music and conversation on the Grammy Museum rooftop as they release their latest album, All in Now.
Edi Patterson: Playgirl
Wednesday, June 3, 8 p.m. Largo at the Coronet 366 N. La Cienega Blvd.,Melrose COST: $50; MORE INFO
Edi Patterson will be improvising an entire play.
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Marcus Ingram
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Getty Images
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The Righteous Gemstones actress Edi Patterson brings her bold improv to the Largo for her new show, Playgirl. No, she’s not improvising a pinup; rather, she’s doing something so much bolder — performing a full-length play completely improvised right on the spot. Yes, she’s playing all the characters.
Wet Hot Amusical Summer
Thursday, June 4, and various dates through June, 7:30 p.m. Three Clubs 1123 Vine Street, Hollywood COST: $33; MORE INFO
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Cherry Poppins
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Eventbrite
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A cult film if there ever was one, the 2001 David Wain film Wet Hot American Summer (starring Paul Rudd, Amy Poehler and many, many more) is ripe for a send-up stage treatment — and the folks at Cherry Poppins have delivered with Wet Hot Amusical Summer. The spoof of a spoof is sure to be an over-the-top send-up of what’s already a comedy legend; the show continues through the Hollywood Fringe Festival.
The Big Run
Wednesday, June 3, 6:30 p.m. to 8 p.m. Johnny Carson Park 400 S. Bob Hope Drive, Burbank COST: $22.50; MORE INFO
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Miguel A. Amutio
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Unsplash
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Celebrate Global Running Day with friends in Burbank as The Big Run takes over Johnny Carson Park. Hosted by Fleet Feet Burbank in partnership with the Burbank Parks and Recreation Department, run the .4 mile loop as many times as you can in 30 minutes to compete!
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Jill Replogle
covers public corruption, debates over our voting system, culture war battles — and more.
Published June 1, 2026 5:00 AM
The state wants Huntington Beach to make room for more homes, and the city has balked at being told how to do that.
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Allen J. Schaben
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Los Angeles Times via Getty Images
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Huntington Beach will consider a citywide plan for more housing at its Tuesday meeting after a years-long battle against the state that resulted in a court order.
The backstory: State law requires California cities and counties to plan for enough housing to meet the expected demand over an eight-year time period, including for low-income housing. They don’t have to actually build the housing, they just have to make sure their local zoning can accommodate it. Huntington Beach was told to make room for some 13,000 new homes. The city fought the allocation all the way up to the U.S. Supreme Court — but lost.
The current status: A San Diego court recently told Huntington Beach it needed to come into compliance, or pay $50,000 for each month it fails to do so.
What’s next? The city council is scheduled to vote on the housing plan at its June 2 meeting.
Huntington Beach will consider a citywide plan for more housing at its June 2 (Tuesday) meeting after a yearslong battle against the state that resulted in a court order.
The backstory
State law requires California cities and counties to plan for enough housing to meet the expected demand over an eight-year period, including for low-income housing. They don’t have to actually build the housing, they just have to make sure their local zoning can accommodate it.
Huntington Beach was told to make room for some 13,000 new homes. The city fought the allocation all the way up to the U.S. Supreme Court, which declined to review the case last year.
Mayor Casey McKeon estimates the city would actually have to plan for close to 40,000 new units to meet the state mandate, since most new developments include only a small percentage of affordable homes.
Where things stand now
A San Diego court recently told Huntington Beach it must come into compliance, or pay $50,000 for each month it fails to do so. The city responded by posting a revised housing plan on its website and asking residents for comment.
Wider pushback
The Orange County Grand Jury dropped a new report last week that is highly critical of the state’s methods of forcing cities to plan for housing at all income levels. The report said the state’s efforts have led to “growing tension between state directives and local realities” and had “led to minimal housing being built.”
What’s next?
The City Council is scheduled to vote on the housing plan at its Tuesday meeting. The state could still order the city to make revisions to its current plan. "We await their adopted plan next week," Alicia Murillo, a spokesperson for the California Department of Housing and Community Development, said in an email to LAist.
How to attend Huntington Beach City Council meetings
Huntington Beach holds City Council meetings on the first and third Tuesday of each month at 6 p.m. at City Hall, 2000 Main St.
You can also watch City Council meetings remotely on HBTV via Channel 3 or online, or via the city’s website. (You can also find videos of previous council meetings there.)
The public comment period happens toward the beginning of meetings.
The city generally posts agendas for City Council meetings on the previous Friday. You can find the agenda on the city’s calendar or sign up there to have agendas sent to your inbox.
A bald eagle couple has been spotted in Los Angeles County this past week.
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Courtesy L.A. County Dept. of Parks and Recreation
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Topline:
A pair of nesting bald eagles was spotted in Los Angeles County this past week, according to a social media post from the Department of Parks and Recreation.
Why it matters: Nesting bald eagles are a fairly rare sight in Southern California, since they typically nest along the California-Oregon border.
The backstory: The Department of Parks and Recreation did not disclose the location of the birds, and reminded L.A. residents in their post that bald eagles are a federally protected species and disturbing their nests could “disrupt breeding and impact their success.”
What's next: It takes about 35 days for bald eagle eggs to incubate. If the new visitors lay eggs, Los Angeles could have our very own eaglets as early as next month.
A pair of nesting bald eagles was spotted in Los Angeles County this past week, according to a social media post from the Department of Parks and Recreation. (You can check out the full post and video on Instagram.)
The Department of Parks and Recreation did not disclose the exact location of the birds.
Nesting bald eagles are a fairly rare sight in Southern California, since they're more commonly found close to the California-Oregon border.
A look at where bald eagles typically nest.
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Courtesy California Department of Fish and Wildlife
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Of course, there are notable exceptions, including Southern California's most famous bald eagles: Big Bear's Jackie and Shadow, whose yearly attempts at parenthood have become big national news on occasion.
Park officials are reminding everyone that bald eagles are a federally protected species and disturbing their nests could “disrupt breeding and impact their success.”
The history
Bald eagles were once close to extinction in the lower 48 U.S. states. By the early 1970s, there were fewer than 30 pairs in California, all in the northern part of the state. The species has rebounded since being protected under federal and state laws.
What's next
It takes about 35 days for bald eagle eggs to incubate. If the L.A.'s new eagle residents lay eggs, Los Angeles could have our very own eaglets as early as next month.
