The Brief

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Times Square's digital screens have nothing on the glaring warning signs for Republicans ahead of these upcoming midterm elections.

President Donald Trump, his policies and actions are unpopular. The GOP continues to lose special elections. Republicans are retiring at faster rates than Democrats. And people are saying they'd rather Democrats control Congress.

At this point, all of it adds up to trouble for the party in power.

The state of play: Democrats' hopes for taking over the House are more likely by the day, while the Senate remains a longer shot.

The House: All members of Congress face election every two years. Republicans currently have a 218-214 majority with three vacancies (one Democratic, two Republican). If the vacancies are filled by members of those same parties, which is likely, and you put redistricting battles to the side, Republicans can only afford to lose two seats to maintain their majority.

At this point, according to the Cook Political Report, there are 36 House seats that are either toss-ups or lean toward one party or the other. Of those, 18 are held by Republicans and 18 are Democratic seats. But zeroing in on the toss-ups alone, 14 are Republican, and only four are Democratic. And the political winds are blowing in Democrats' direction. Cook moved 18 seats in Democrats' direction a few weeks ago.

The Senate: Senators win six-year terms, and roughly one-third of the Senate is up every election cycle. Republicans currently maintain a three-seat net advantage, 53-47. (Two independents caucus with the Democrats.) But given Trump is president, and Vice President Vance would come in to break ties, Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take control.

This year, 35 Senate seats are up for grabs (22 Republican-held and 13 by Democrats). But the universe of competitive seats is actually much smaller — 25 seats are considered to be safely in the hands of the incumbent party (16 Republican, nine Democratic), according to Cook. That means only 10 seats are truly in play. Of those, six are held by Republicans, including Maine, North Carolina, Alaska, Ohio, Iowa and Texas. Four are Democratic: Georgia, Michigan, New Hampshire and Minnesota.

The fights for both chambers will be closely watched, but the House is still considered Democrats' best chance for control of one of the chambers of Congress.

The reasons for potential winds of change:

1. President Trump is unpopular. 

President Trump talks to reporters while aboard Air Force One on Friday en route to Palm Beach, Fla.

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Samuel Corum

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Almost nothing is a better predictor of electoral success in midterms than who's in power and how popular they are.

Historically, midterms are not good for the president's party. Since World War II, the president's party has lost an average of 27 seats in the House and four in the Senate.

"Even if it's a Democrat or a Republican, whoever wins the presidency has a hard time with the midterms," Trump said in Iowa late last month. He added, "It's crazy. You know, you'd think it would be like a 50-50 deal or something. It's like, for some reason — and this is Democrat, too — Democrat wins the presidency, for some reason, they lose the midterms."

It's even worse when a president is below 50% job approval, as Trump has been for a while. When that's the case, the president's party has lost an average of 32 seats in the House. (This is mainly a House phenomenon. Presidents' parties have lost on average four Senate seats, regardless of approval rating.)

Redistricting and the rise in safe House seats, though, has lessened the likelihood of wave elections that would bring huge swings toward one party or the other.

Still, the popularity of the president is an important sign, and midterms are often referenda on the president's policies. Right now, Trump is under water, as evidenced by the latest NPR/PBS News/Marist poll out last week.

It showed Trump with a 39% job approval rating. He's been under 40% in the poll since November. His policies on everything from immigration enforcement to tariffs and foreign policy are all unpopular.

His voting coalition is fraying, too. Independents, voters under 30 and Latinos were key to Trump winning reelection in 2024. But they have slid away from him heavily. In the NPR poll, just 30% of independents and voters 18-29 approved of the job he's doing, along with just 38% of Latinos.

For all of Trump's boasting, he is showing signs that he and the White House understand the vulnerable position he's in. He's changed his tone on immigration enforcement, for example, saying in an interview with NBC News that he's learned his administration can take a "softer touch" (though he blamed "bad publicity" rather than bad policy).

2. The economic outlook is bleak.

Americans continue to say the economy is their top concern.

In the NPR poll, 54% of respondents said Trump's top priority should be lowering prices. Immigration was a distant second at 22%, though it was No. 1 for Republicans.

Only 36% said they approved of Trump's handling of the economy, with a majority saying tariffs hurt the economy.

A Pew Research Center survey also out last week found 72% rated the economy as "fair" or "poor."

A plurality — 38% — said they expect the economy to get worse in the next year, while just 31% said it will be better, and 30% said it would be about the same. Majorities in both parties said they're very concerned about the cost of health care and the price of food and consumer goods.

And, by a 52%-28% margin, respondents said Trump's policies have made things worse rather than better.

3. Democrats continue to overperform in special elections. 

With a win for a state Senate seat in Texas on Jan. 31, Democrats racked up yet another special election victory.

Ordinarily, there wouldn't be that much attention on a state Senate race, but the eye-popping margin and the pattern of other Democratic overperformances in the past year made this one national news. Special elections can be good predictors of success or failure in the following midterm elections.

In 2024, Trump won this Fort Worth, Texas-area seat by 17 points. But the Democratic candidate in this election won it by 14. That's a 31-point swing.

Trump would rather it was ignored.

"I'm not involved in that," he told reporters on Feb. 1. "That's a local Texas race."

But Trump had given his "Complete and Total Endorsement" to the Republican in the race and put out three social media posts promoting her and urged Texans to get out and vote.

It's just the latest example of elections over the past year, from special elections to November's off-year results, where Democrats have racked up wins and overperformed, often by double-digits.

In fact, between House seats, the fall's gubernatorial races and this one, Democrats have overperformed 2024 margins by an average of almost 16 points.

As they might say in Texas, Republicans' House majority is tighter than a wet boot.

4. Republicans are retiring at faster rates than Democrats. 

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., speaks during a hearing with the House Committee on Homeland Security on Capitol Hill on Dec. 11, 2025. Greene has retired, leaving her seat open for a special election.

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Anna Moneymaker

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A whopping 51 members of the House so far have hung it up for this 2026 election cycle.

It's a record pace, and, right now, it's more Republicans calling it quits — 30 to 21.

Lots of factors go into this, including mid-decade redistricting and the lack of appeal of serving in Washington when little gets done and acrimony is as high as it is.

But which party has more lawmakers who decide not to run for reelection is usually a pretty good indicator of which side is most concerned.

What's more, the rate of reelection is very high for incumbents. Part of that is high name identification. Part of that is built-in financial advantages. Part of that is just that people check the box more often for who they know.

When there are more open seats, especially in competitive places, parties and candidates have to spend more time recruiting candidates and more money trying to help them win — money that could be used to shore up already vulnerable officeholders.

5. Democrats are leading on the congressional ballot test. 

On average, Democrats have about a 5-point edge in polls asking people which party they'd rather see in control of Congress.

That's often referred to as the congressional ballot test in surveys. Because more districts lean toward Republicans in the country, Democrats have generally needed a wider edge on this question.

But that GOP advantage has narrowed in recent years. And, a year ago, Republicans were the ones leading on the congressional ballot, showing just how much the landscape has shifted in Democrats' favor.

There are no guarantees, a lot can change, and the Democratic Party is less popular than the GOP in many polls — mostly because Democratic voters aren't thrilled with their own leaders. But, at this moment, Democrats have the advantage.

As Cook's Erin Covey writes: "With only a few exceptions, midterm elections have been driven by backlash to the party in power — and the Democratic Party's unpopularity hasn't kept their voters from turning out in off-year elections.

"If the election were held today, Republicans would need to win roughly three-quarters of the Toss Up races to keep control of the House ... . Though that's not impossible, it looks increasingly difficult."
Copyright 2026 NPR

Nearly 30% more students in Los Angeles County experienced homelessness from 2022-23 to 2023-24, making it the county’s highest rate in the past five years and far outpacing the rate of homelessness across the state in the same timeframe, as the resources to identify and support this student population have decreased.

The UCLA Center for the Transformation of Schools published two reports on Wednesday on the state of student homelessness in the county: “Rising Numbers, Fading Resources: Students Experiencing Homelessness in Los Angeles County” and “Hidden in Plain Sight: Fear, Underidentification, and Funding Gaps for Housing-Insecure Students in Los Angeles County.”

Researchers found that Norwalk-La Mirada Elementary Unified School District had the highest rate of student homelessness in the county — 1 in 3 students, meaning that over 4,700 students were identified as experiencing homelessness during the 2023-24 school year out of a total cumulative enrollment of about 15,600.

The city of Norwalk, where the district is located in the eastern region of the county, was sued by the state in 2024 for banning emergency shelters and other support services for people experiencing homelessness. Last year, the state reached a settlement with the city, which was forced to overturn the ban and put $250,000 toward building affordable housing.

Student homelessness is defined differently under the McKinney-Vento Homeless Assistance Act, a federal law that requires every public school to count the number of students who are living on the street, in shelters, in motels, in cars, doubled up with other families, or moving between friends’ and relatives’ homes.

As a result of this expanded definition, McKinney-Vento includes doubled-up students in the count of homelessness. Doubled-up is a term used to describe children and youth ages 21 and under living in shared housing, such as with another family or friends, due to various crises.

There were a few other patterns seen in the L.A. County data analyzed by the UCLA researchers:

• Latino students were disproportionately more likely to experience homelessness: they represent 65% of the county’s student population, but 75.5% of student homelessness
• A third of homeless students were in high school
• Many districts with the highest rates of homelessness had higher school instability but lower dropout rates

While McKinney-Vento has an expanded definition that includes more types of homelessness than several other definitions, identifying students remains difficult.

The second report from the UCLA Center for the Transformation of Schools focuses on the lack of dedicated funding for school staff to identify and support homeless students. Students and families facing homelessness do not always self-identify, whether due to fear, shame or being unaware that their housing situation is considered homelessness under McKinney-Vento.

“A lot of these young people are dealing with a lot of trauma, so they don’t want to be identified. They don’t want to be pointed out; sometimes it’s scary for them, because they think we’re going to report them to the Department of Children and Family Services,” said L.A. County Office of Education staff interviewed for this report.

School staff, known as homeless liaisons, who work with homeless students received a historic influx of federal funds during the Covid-19 pandemic — $98.76 million for California, out of $800 million nationwide, from the American Rescue Plan-Homeless Children and Youth.

That funding has since ended, and there is no other dedicated, ongoing state funding set aside solely for the rising number of homeless students. This has led districts in California to “heavily depend on highly competitive and unstable federal streams,” the UCLA researchers wrote. Those federal streams have become increasingly precarious as the federal administration last year sought policy changes that would shift how they are structured.

This is a developing story and will be updated. For the most up-to-date information about the fire you can check:

• CalFire incident page
• Latest evacuation map
• For more updates, follow the Riverside County Fire Department.

Multiple evacuation orders are in place for residents near the Spring Fire burning in east of Moreno Valley in Riverside County. The fire was first reported around 11 a.m.

As of this afternoon, the fire has reached about 1,500 acres.

West of the Spring, a separate bush fire near Acton also began Friday afternoon. The Crown Fire has burned 280 acres and is 0% contained.

The basics

• Acreage: 1,500 acres as of Friday afternoon
• Containment: 0%
• Structures destroyed: None reported
• Deaths: None
• Injuries: 0
• Personnel working on fire: 105
  
  • 2 helicopters
  • 23 engines
  • 2 dozers
  • 2 crews

Evacuation map and orders

Evacuation orders have been issued by the Riverside County Sheriff’s Department for the following areas:

• MOE-0507
• MOE-0747
• MOE-0745
• MOE-0641
• MOE-0746
• MOE-0744
• RVC-0748
• RVC-0826
• RVC-0825

Evacuation warnings

Authorities say those who require additional time to evacuate and those with pets and livestock should leave immediately.

• MOE-0504
• MOE-0505
• MOE-0506
• MOE-0633
• MOE-0636
• MOE-0637
• MOE-0638
• MOE-0639
• MOE-0640
• MOE-0743
• MOE-0822
• MOE-0823

Evacuation shelters

Valley View High School
13135 Nason St.
Moreno Valley, 92555

Animal Shelter

San Jacinto Animal Shelter
581 S. Grand Ave. San Jacinto 92582

Road closures

Gilman Springs Road is closed from Alessandro Road to Bridge Street, according to Cal Fire.

What we know so far

The Spring Fire was first reported around 11 a.m. Friday near Gilman Springs Road as a 5-acre fire that grew to 1,000 acres by 1:45 p.m.

Conditions are fairly windy and dry in that area, according to the National Weather Service. Wind gusts reached 20 to 30 mph from the east. The Santa Ana wind event is expected to last into tomorrow.

Listen to our Big Burn podcast

Fire resources and tips

Check out LAist's wildfire recovery guide

If you have to evacuate:

• Why fire officials don't want you to stay and defend your home
• How to get packed up
• How to leave your house
• What evacuation terms mean and how to sign up for alerts

Navigating fire conditions:

• How to drive in high winds and fire danger
• How to prep for power outages
• How to navigate poor air quality

How to help yourself and others:

• Resources for fire victims, evacuees and first responders
• If you want to help fire victims, resist the urge to volunteer
• How to help find lost pets

How to start the recovery process:

• What to do — and not do — when you get home after a wildfire
• How to make an insurance claim
• How to safely clean up wildfire ash

What to do for your kids:

• How to talk to children about wildfires and losing a home
• What parents should know about wildfire air quality

Prepare for the next disaster:

• Every day is now fire season. Let's get you ready for the next wildfire
• Yes, wildfires are getting worse. The history that got us to this moment

The Trump administration did not include funding in its federal budget proposal for Los Angeles Metro’s key plan to use thousands of buses to transport fans to scattered venues hosting the 2028 Games.

L.A. Metro’s Board and California Democrats have repeatedly appealed to the administration to provide federal dollars for the region’s "transit-first" Games. The president’s budget request released Friday didn’t provide a dime of the $2 billion the countywide transportation agency is seeking.

The 92-page document is a signal of the administration’s priorities for the budget for the next fiscal year, which begins Oct. 1. Ultimately, the U.S. Congress decides how federal dollars are spent.

Rep. Sydney Kamlager-Dove, who represents Culver City and parts of Los Angeles, wrote a letter with her California Democratic colleagues to the administration in February calling this budget process the “final opportunity” to secure Metro’s funding request.

U.S. Representative Sydney Kamlager-Dove is one of the California Democrats leading advocacy in Washington, D.C., to secure L.A. Metro's $2 billion federal funding request.

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Assembleymember Sydney Kamlager Facebook Page

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In a statement to LAist, Kamlager-Dove said she was “incredibly disappointed” that Metro was excluded in the president’s budget request.

“At the end of the day, Congress has the power to appropriate money,” she said. “Despite the president’s lack of foresight, I will continue to advocate to ensure this funding is included so L.A. Metro has what they need to succeed.”

Rep. Pete Aguilar, who has a seat on the Congressional subcommittee overseeing federal transportation appropriations, said President Donald Trump has talked about the Olympics “time and time again,” pointing to the most recent State of the Union as an example.

“Our charge is to ensure that they adequately fund this and that they put the resources behind it so they aren't just using it as a talking point, but they're actually leaning in,” Aguilar told LAist in an interview before the president’s proposed budget request was released.

What would the money be used for?

Metro plans to essentially double its bus fleet for the 2028 Games by temporarily acquiring, operating and storing nearly 1,750 additional buses for spectators. The agency says that will cost about $1 billion. The remainder of the appropriations request would be for pedestrian improvements and designing a network of roads for Games vehicles, among other uses.

Seleta Reynolds, Metro’s chief of innovation and Games mobility planning, said at a January Metro Board meeting that finding and preparing the real estate where the buses will be staged involves a lead time of two years, meaning the agency would need a “chunk of funding available by this summer.”

Initially, Metro had asked for $3.2 billion to support a plan to temporarily use 2,700 buses. Metro reduced the estimate for the number of buses needed after LA28, the Games organizing committee, refined the venues and schedule for events.

That reduction, plus other federal funding that Metro has received to partially support station and light rail improvements, brought the total amount of money in the federal appropriations request down to $2 billion, the countywide transportation agency said.

“Without the full level of funding requested, the complete scope of the [Games Enhanced Transit System] would not be feasible, as the cost of operating this temporary system exceeds Metro’s available operating resources,” the agency said in its statement.

Jacie Prieto Lopez, a spokesperson for LA28, told LAist in a statement before the president released his budget request that the organizing committee was supporting partners in Congress and the administration, who are leading the budget and appropriations process.

"With the full support of federal transit money for the games, we can collectively create a positive commuting experience," Prieto Lopez said.

Success with buses during LA84

A bus system similar to the one Metro is planning for 2028 was critical to the success of the 1984 Olympics in Los Angeles.

Metro's predecessor, Southern California Rapid Transit District, deployed 550 additional buses, hundreds of new drivers and 24 routes to move people around the city for the Olympics.

A view of the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum during the closing ceremony of the 1984 Summer Olympics, Los Angeles, 12th August 1984.

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Steve Powell

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Getty Images Europe

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In the run-up to those Games, one California Highway Patrol official warned the L.A. Times that congestion around the L.A. Memorial Coliseum would be so extreme that drivers would abandon their cars on the freeway. Headlines warned of "traffic woes."

Instead, the Olympics offered a surprising reprieve from L.A.'s typical traffic. More than 1 million passengers took buses to the Games.

Rich Perelman, who led press operations for the 1984 Olympics and edited the official report on the Games, told LAist that in 1984, no public funds were used for the additional bus fleet. Bus tickets and some donations and corporate sponsorships covered the cost.

Perelman said organizers pulled off the bus system by staying focused on the areas where parking was sparse, such as the Coliseum. According to the official report, nearly 80% of rides on the bus system were to Exposition Park.

" It was a transit-smart approach," Perelman said. " If there was plenty of parking, we didn't say you have to take the bus. We didn't make any nonsensical claims of 'no-car Games' or 'transit only Games.’"

Security funding from the federal government 

Transportation funding is just one bucket that the federal government is expected to contribute for the Olympics.

The budget released by the Trump administration Friday contained major increases for the Department of Homeland Security, including some linked to Olympics preparations. It asks for additional funding for the FBI and Secret Service, which leads security planning for the Games.

Last year, Trump's "One Big Beautiful Bill" allocated $1 billion for Olympics security costs.

But exactly how that money will be distributed has yet to be determined — and L.A. politicians have expressed concern that the funds may come with strings attached that the city of L.A. will find hard to swallow.

It's also possible that money could face delays that could disrupt Olympics planning. The federal government was late in awarding hundreds of millions of dollars that it promised for security for the World Cup this year — a delay the Trump administration attributed to the Homeland Security shutdown.

This story first appeared on The LA Local.

Across from an auto shop on Venice Boulevard and Albany Street sits a narrow, sunken strip of land lined with overgrown shrubs and cacti. It’s mostly filled with trash — from plastic bags and cups to containers, straws, chip bags and aluminum foil.

It’s original purpose was to capture and filter storm water runoff, helping reduce flooding and keep pollutants from flowing into the ocean. But neighbors in Pico Union say that this bioswale and many others across the city have become dumping grounds.

The sidewalk features were installed during former Mayor Eric Garcetti’s Complete Streets program around 2018. The initiative aimed to improve streets, add greenery and better manage stormwater along key corridors across the city.

Local resident Aurora Corona — a longtime Pico Union community organizer involved in local environmental and cleanup efforts — said in some instances it looks like the bioswales were not fully installed.

Citywide, there are about 23 bioswales that appear abandoned, Corona said. Many are located in central and South Los Angeles and spread across at least eight council districts.

In some cases, the concrete structures were installed but left without vegetation for years, Corona said, raising concerns that they were never able to function as intended.

Heberto Portobanco, owner of the Nicaraguan restaurant Portobanco in Pico Union, first noticed the bioswale outside his business about eight years ago, but it became hard to ignore about two years ago when it became a hazard.

“We had an accident, one of the people who does maintenance for us came and fell into it,” he said.

The bioswale was deeper and not fully finished, Portobanco said. After multiple people reported what happened to the city, Portobanco said the city added more soil to level it out.

“The idea might be nice, but if it’s not maintained, it’s a problem,” Portobanco said.

The biggest concern for Portobanco remains safety, especially as he said that people continue to use the space improperly or fail to notice it altogether.

He would be willing to help maintain the bioswale outside his restaurant if the city created a formal program to do so.

For him, keeping the space clean is also about pride and perception.

“I don’t want people to think that Latinos are careless and that we don’t take care of our surroundings,” he said, adding that a well-kept space could encourage others to take better care of the neighborhood.

Corona, the local organizer, has experienced similar issues to the ones Portobanco described. 

She lives near two bioswales, including the one near Portobanco’s restaurant.

She first encountered them while organizing a cleanup around 2024 and said she didn’t initially know what they were. What she did know was that they were not being taken care of.

“I was tired of seeing this being a dumping ground, they would just throw trash here all the time,” she said.

That frustration pushed her to take action. She thought of what she had already done with other public spaces in her community.

In 2024, she helped transform a neglected dirt space on Venice Boulevard and Union Avenue into a small community green area — also known as a median — using local grant funding. With the help of volunteers, they removed contaminated soil and planted drought-tolerant greenery.

“It’s only been here since November and it’s grown a lot,” she said about the green belt, pointing to plants that started as small pots and are now taking root.

Corona continues to organize cleanups and, through the city’s “Adopt-a-Median” program, works with neighbors to maintain the space. She said she’d like to see a similar model applied to bioswales — essentially an “Adopt-a-Bioswale” program that would allow residents to take ownership of the ones near them.

“I think people would step up if they were given the chance and the support,” she said.

Across from an auto shop on Venice Boulevard and Albany Street sits a narrow, sunken strip of land lined with overgrown shrubs and cacti. It’s mostly filled with trash — from plastic bags and cups to containers, straws, chip bags and aluminum foil.

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Marina Peña

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The LA Local

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The program for the bioswales, as she envisions it, would involve planting California natives such as dudleya edulis, dudleya pulverulenta and other species that can withstand the weather. It would also call for improving their visibility by painting the bioswale borders in colors that reflect the neighborhood.

That idea has already been discussed at the city level.

Steve Kang, president of the city’s Board of Public Works, agrees that many bioswales now sit “barren” and are treated as “more of a trash repository.” 

He said his office is now working to create a program similar to “Adopt-a-Median” that would allow community members and organizations to formally maintain bioswales.

“My intention is to make the process as seamless and easy as possible,” Kang said, adding that the goal is to launch the program sometime in 2026.

Under the proposal, participants would enter into agreements with the city, with support from the Office of Community Beautification, which can provide tools like gloves, trash bags and gardening supplies.

For residents like Corona and business owners like Portobanco, that kind of partnership could turn what are now neglected strips of land into something more useful. 

“If we take care of these spaces, they can become something people are proud of,” Corona said. “It changes how people see the neighborhood and how they treat it.”