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Times Square's digital screens have nothing on the glaring warning signs for Republicans ahead of these upcoming midterm elections.

President Donald Trump, his policies and actions are unpopular. The GOP continues to lose special elections. Republicans are retiring at faster rates than Democrats. And people are saying they'd rather Democrats control Congress.

At this point, all of it adds up to trouble for the party in power.

The state of play: Democrats' hopes for taking over the House are more likely by the day, while the Senate remains a longer shot.

The House: All members of Congress face election every two years. Republicans currently have a 218-214 majority with three vacancies (one Democratic, two Republican). If the vacancies are filled by members of those same parties, which is likely, and you put redistricting battles to the side, Republicans can only afford to lose two seats to maintain their majority.

At this point, according to the Cook Political Report, there are 36 House seats that are either toss-ups or lean toward one party or the other. Of those, 18 are held by Republicans and 18 are Democratic seats. But zeroing in on the toss-ups alone, 14 are Republican, and only four are Democratic. And the political winds are blowing in Democrats' direction. Cook moved 18 seats in Democrats' direction a few weeks ago.

The Senate: Senators win six-year terms, and roughly one-third of the Senate is up every election cycle. Republicans currently maintain a three-seat net advantage, 53-47. (Two independents caucus with the Democrats.) But given Trump is president, and Vice President Vance would come in to break ties, Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take control.

This year, 35 Senate seats are up for grabs (22 Republican-held and 13 by Democrats). But the universe of competitive seats is actually much smaller — 25 seats are considered to be safely in the hands of the incumbent party (16 Republican, nine Democratic), according to Cook. That means only 10 seats are truly in play. Of those, six are held by Republicans, including Maine, North Carolina, Alaska, Ohio, Iowa and Texas. Four are Democratic: Georgia, Michigan, New Hampshire and Minnesota.

The fights for both chambers will be closely watched, but the House is still considered Democrats' best chance for control of one of the chambers of Congress.

The reasons for potential winds of change:

1. President Trump is unpopular. 

President Trump talks to reporters while aboard Air Force One on Friday en route to Palm Beach, Fla.

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Almost nothing is a better predictor of electoral success in midterms than who's in power and how popular they are.

Historically, midterms are not good for the president's party. Since World War II, the president's party has lost an average of 27 seats in the House and four in the Senate.

"Even if it's a Democrat or a Republican, whoever wins the presidency has a hard time with the midterms," Trump said in Iowa late last month. He added, "It's crazy. You know, you'd think it would be like a 50-50 deal or something. It's like, for some reason — and this is Democrat, too — Democrat wins the presidency, for some reason, they lose the midterms."

It's even worse when a president is below 50% job approval, as Trump has been for a while. When that's the case, the president's party has lost an average of 32 seats in the House. (This is mainly a House phenomenon. Presidents' parties have lost on average four Senate seats, regardless of approval rating.)

Redistricting and the rise in safe House seats, though, has lessened the likelihood of wave elections that would bring huge swings toward one party or the other.

Still, the popularity of the president is an important sign, and midterms are often referenda on the president's policies. Right now, Trump is under water, as evidenced by the latest NPR/PBS News/Marist poll out last week.

It showed Trump with a 39% job approval rating. He's been under 40% in the poll since November. His policies on everything from immigration enforcement to tariffs and foreign policy are all unpopular.

His voting coalition is fraying, too. Independents, voters under 30 and Latinos were key to Trump winning reelection in 2024. But they have slid away from him heavily. In the NPR poll, just 30% of independents and voters 18-29 approved of the job he's doing, along with just 38% of Latinos.

For all of Trump's boasting, he is showing signs that he and the White House understand the vulnerable position he's in. He's changed his tone on immigration enforcement, for example, saying in an interview with NBC News that he's learned his administration can take a "softer touch" (though he blamed "bad publicity" rather than bad policy).

2. The economic outlook is bleak.

Americans continue to say the economy is their top concern.

In the NPR poll, 54% of respondents said Trump's top priority should be lowering prices. Immigration was a distant second at 22%, though it was No. 1 for Republicans.

Only 36% said they approved of Trump's handling of the economy, with a majority saying tariffs hurt the economy.

A Pew Research Center survey also out last week found 72% rated the economy as "fair" or "poor."

A plurality — 38% — said they expect the economy to get worse in the next year, while just 31% said it will be better, and 30% said it would be about the same. Majorities in both parties said they're very concerned about the cost of health care and the price of food and consumer goods.

And, by a 52%-28% margin, respondents said Trump's policies have made things worse rather than better.

3. Democrats continue to overperform in special elections. 

With a win for a state Senate seat in Texas on Jan. 31, Democrats racked up yet another special election victory.

Ordinarily, there wouldn't be that much attention on a state Senate race, but the eye-popping margin and the pattern of other Democratic overperformances in the past year made this one national news. Special elections can be good predictors of success or failure in the following midterm elections.

In 2024, Trump won this Fort Worth, Texas-area seat by 17 points. But the Democratic candidate in this election won it by 14. That's a 31-point swing.

Trump would rather it was ignored.

"I'm not involved in that," he told reporters on Feb. 1. "That's a local Texas race."

But Trump had given his "Complete and Total Endorsement" to the Republican in the race and put out three social media posts promoting her and urged Texans to get out and vote.

It's just the latest example of elections over the past year, from special elections to November's off-year results, where Democrats have racked up wins and overperformed, often by double-digits.

In fact, between House seats, the fall's gubernatorial races and this one, Democrats have overperformed 2024 margins by an average of almost 16 points.

As they might say in Texas, Republicans' House majority is tighter than a wet boot.

4. Republicans are retiring at faster rates than Democrats. 

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., speaks during a hearing with the House Committee on Homeland Security on Capitol Hill on Dec. 11, 2025. Greene has retired, leaving her seat open for a special election.

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A whopping 51 members of the House so far have hung it up for this 2026 election cycle.

It's a record pace, and, right now, it's more Republicans calling it quits — 30 to 21.

Lots of factors go into this, including mid-decade redistricting and the lack of appeal of serving in Washington when little gets done and acrimony is as high as it is.

But which party has more lawmakers who decide not to run for reelection is usually a pretty good indicator of which side is most concerned.

What's more, the rate of reelection is very high for incumbents. Part of that is high name identification. Part of that is built-in financial advantages. Part of that is just that people check the box more often for who they know.

When there are more open seats, especially in competitive places, parties and candidates have to spend more time recruiting candidates and more money trying to help them win — money that could be used to shore up already vulnerable officeholders.

5. Democrats are leading on the congressional ballot test. 

On average, Democrats have about a 5-point edge in polls asking people which party they'd rather see in control of Congress.

That's often referred to as the congressional ballot test in surveys. Because more districts lean toward Republicans in the country, Democrats have generally needed a wider edge on this question.

But that GOP advantage has narrowed in recent years. And, a year ago, Republicans were the ones leading on the congressional ballot, showing just how much the landscape has shifted in Democrats' favor.

There are no guarantees, a lot can change, and the Democratic Party is less popular than the GOP in many polls — mostly because Democratic voters aren't thrilled with their own leaders. But, at this moment, Democrats have the advantage.

As Cook's Erin Covey writes: "With only a few exceptions, midterm elections have been driven by backlash to the party in power — and the Democratic Party's unpopularity hasn't kept their voters from turning out in off-year elections.

"If the election were held today, Republicans would need to win roughly three-quarters of the Toss Up races to keep control of the House ... . Though that's not impossible, it looks increasingly difficult."
Copyright 2026 NPR

This story was originally published by CalMatters. Sign up for their newsletters.

Two websites that distribute instructions for how to manufacture ghost guns are facing a new lawsuit from the state of California alleging that they provide access to illegal and untraceable firearms.

The lawsuit, filed by Attorney General Rob Bonta and San Francisco City Attorney David Chiu, is aimed at the Gatalog Foundation Inc. and CTRLPEW LLC.

The lawsuit in San Francisco Superior Court argues that the websites violated multiple state laws, including the distribution of computer code and guidelines for 3D printing firearms, illegal large-capacity magazines, and other firearm-related products.

According to the lawsuit, the websites offer computer code and instructions for more than 150 designs of lethal firearms and prohibited firearm accessories. The lawsuit said state officials as part of their investigation downloaded the code and instructions from the website “with a few simple keystrokes” and used it to build a Glock-style handgun.

“These defendants’ conduct enables unlicensed people who are too young or too dangerous to pass firearm background checks to illegally print deadly weapons without a background check and without a trace,” said Bonta. “This lawsuit underscores just how dangerous the ghost gun industry is and how much harm its skip-the-background check business model has done to California’s communities.”

The defendants could not be reached for comment. In addition to the two websites, the lawsuit names as defendants three men: Alexander Holladay, who the lawsuit identifies as the Gatalog Foundation’s principal; John Elik, who is identified as its director; and gun rights attorney Matthew Larosiere.

Larosiere in a 2019 interview with the Mercury News characterized ghost guns as a legal hobby for firearms enthusiasts.

“It is, and always has been, legal for ordinary adults to make firearms for their own personal use,” he told the newspaper. “These people tend to be dedicated hobbyists. Home-built firearms have been around as long as our nation, and today in a country of 300 million people, we rarely ever see them used in crime.”

The proliferation of ghost guns has increased dramatically over the past decade in California, resulting in what the lawsuit refers to as a “public safety crisis.” According to the lawsuit, California law enforcement agencies recovered 26 ghost guns in 2015. Since 2021, agencies have recovered an average of more than 11,000 ghost guns per year, the lawsuit said.

“Because they are not serialized, ghost guns are effectively untraceable by law enforcement,” the lawsuit stated. “And because they are manufactured privately, often in one’s home, they bypass critical safeguards like background checks. In this way, ghost guns unlawfully circumvent traditional gun control measures.”

The lawsuit detailed particularly stark examples of the dangers that 3D printed firearms have posed, including the arrest of a 14-year-old boy who used a 3D printer to manufacture multiple firearms in Santa Rosa in 2024.

Adam Skaggs, chief counsel and vice president of GIFFORDS Law Center to Prevent Gun Violence, said in a statement that the organization has previously partnered with Bonta to stop three ghost gun companies from operating throughout California.

“But a new generation of irresponsible gun industry actors are trying to unlawfully arm minors, people with felony convictions, and domestic abusers by letting them 3D-print their own guns without any background checks,” he said.

Cayla Mihalovich is a California Local News fellow.

This article was originally published on CalMatters and was republished under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives license.

Around the middle of Bad Bunny's live NFL Super Bowl halftime performance, the Puerto Rican singer is seen handing a Grammy Award to a young Latino boy.

As he kneels down and rubs the boy's head, he says: "Cree siempre en ti" ("always believe in yourself"). Almost immediately, rumors began spreading like wildfire on social media: the boy was none other than Liam Conejo Ramos, an immigrant who has made headlines in recent weeks.

While the concert was rife with symbolism and statement — this happens to not be true. A publicist for Bad Bunny told NPR Music that the little boy on stage was not Liam Conejo Ramos. A representative for the Conejo Ramos family also confirmed to Minnesota Public Radio that it was not the young boy.

A screenshot of Bad Bunny giving a Grammy to a young boy during the Super Bowl performance.

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Who is Liam Conejo Ramos?

Five-year-old Liam Conejo Ramos and his dad, Adrian Conejo, were detained by federal immigration agents on Jan. 20 at their Minneapolis driveway.

A photo taken of the boy carrying a Spider-Man backpack and wearing a blue bunny hat, went viral on social media, and has become one of the symbols of President Trump's harsh immigration crackdown in Minneapolis.

Liam and his dad were sent to a detention center in Dilley, Texas, meant to hold families with minors. They were released earlier this month.

The family, which comes from Ecuador, is claiming asylum. The federal government, however, is pushing to end their asylum claims.

The Department of Homeland Security launched Operation Metro Surge in December, deploying nearly 3,000 federal immigration agents to Minnesota. It has led to hundreds of arrests, including of undocumented immigrants without criminal records, and the killing of two U.S. citizens by federal agents.

A concert filled with symbolism

Bad Bunny's presence at the Super Bowl has been praised — and criticized — for being a predominantly Spanish-language concert, and because of his stance on Trump's immigration enforcement campaign. During his acceptance speech at last week's Grammy Awards, he stated "ICE out… we're not savage We're not animals. We're not aliens. We are humans. And we are Americans."

Sunday's Super Bowl performance was filled with symbolism and contained several strong statements celebrating Latinos and immigrants in America, including when the singer said "God Bless America" and named all of the countries of North, Central, and South America.

Bad Bunny performs during halftime of the NFL Super Bowl on Sunday.

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Copyright 2026 NPR

The impact of HBO Max queer sports romance show Heated Rivalry continues its blaze across pop culture. Last month, the show’s co-stars Hudson Williams and Connor Storrie were the torchbearers for the Winter Olympics and presented the best supporting actress award at the Golden Globes. Later this month, Storrie is slated to host Saturday Night Live.

The show’s impact has also hit the ice.

In January, the ticketing platform Seatgeek reported a rise in National Hockey League ticket sales that coincided with the release of the show. In that span, the ticketing site saw a 9% increase in single-ticket sales, which the site reports is the highest it's ever been for the NHL. Stubhub, another ticket platform, reported a 40% interest in hockey tickets since the show first aired.

LA Kings keep the hype going

In an attempt to tap into the moment the show is having, LA Kings music director Dieter Ruehle has been playing music from the show live at the games. Fans took to Instagram and TikTok sharing videos of t.A.T.u.'s hit “All the Things She Said” and Wolf Parade’s “I’ll Believe in Anything” at the games. It’s a trend that multiple teams in the league are tapping into, including the Seattle Kraken.

“I've been a hockey fan since I was a kid, and I've noticed the growth of the game,” Ruehle said. “However…in recent times whenever I click on social media, there's posts about, ‘oh, we're going to our first hockey game.’ And I think that's so awesome.”

Ruehle says he finds “tremendous joy” in seeing the crowd’s reaction when he plays the songs at the games.

"I'm glad that the show is bringing that to hockey,” he says. “It's pretty phenomenal quite frankly, and I'm just glad to be part of it when I [play] some of the songs from the show."

The show’s creators, Jacob Tierney and Brendan Brady, also collaborated with the Kings in a video where they were live mic’d for two periods of a January 16th game against the Anaheim Ducks.

Since the show came out, Kings senior manager of social content Alec Palmer says there’s been an uptick in influencers coming to the Kings games.

“The fact this [show] was about hockey or set in this hockey world was like the greatest gift to hockey,” Palmer says. “It has gotten so many people exposed to the sport.”

An icy environment that still needs thawing

The impact of the show is also felt through people who play the sport.

Since the show’s release, former hockey player Jesse Kortuem publicly came out and, in part, credited Heated Rivalry for his decision. Kortuem played in the Cutting Edges, an LGBTQ+ hockey association in Vancouver.

“I loved the game, but I lived with a persistent fear,” Kortuem wrote in a Facebook post. “I wondered how I could be gay and still play such a tough and masculine sport.”

Fans have long criticized the sport for not being a safe space for queer folks. In 2023, the NHL created controversy with their decision to ban rainbow-colored “pride tape” on the rink and a separate ban on Pride-themed jerseys during warmups.

“ I think this show has really brought all of those things back up to light and forced people to look in the mirror and have those conversations,” Palmer said, speaking in a personal capacity.

Palmer says the real work comes with engaging with the community through workshops with coaches on inclusive language, hosting community pride nights and supporting LGBTQ+ friendly teams like the Los Angeles Blades.

“ That's where you're making that impact in real life,” he says, “and how we're setting the next generation up to be successful.”

The logic behind electric vehicles benefiting public health has long been solid: More EVs means fewer internal combustion engines on the road and a reduction in harmful tailpipe emissions. But now researchers have confirmed, to the greatest extent yet, that this is indeed what’s actually happening on the ground. What’s more, they found that even relatively small upticks in EV adoption can have a measurably positive impact on a community.

Whereas previous work has largely been based on modeling, a study published in January in the journal Lancet Planetary Health used satellites to measure actual emissions. The study, conducted between 2019 and 2023, focused on California, which has among the highest rates of EV use in the country, and nitrogen dioxide, one of the gases released during combustion, including when fossil fuels are burned. Exposure to the pollutant can contribute to heart and lung issues or even premature death. Across nearly 1,700 ZIP codes, the analysis showed that for every increase of 200 electric vehicles, nitrogen dioxide emissions decreased by 1.1%.

“A pretty small addition of cars at the ZIP code level led to a decline in air pollution,” said Sandrah Eckel, a public health professor at USC’s Keck School of Medicine and lead author of the study. “It’s remarkable.”

The group had tried to establish this link using Environmental Protection Agency air monitors before, but because there are only about 100 of them in California, the results weren’t statistically significant. The data also were from 2013 through 2019, when there were fewer electric vehicles on the road. Although the satellite instrument they ultimately used only detected nitrogen dioxide, it did allow researchers to gather data for virtually the entire state, and this time the findings were clear.

“It’s making a real difference in our neighborhoods,” said Eckel, who said a methodology like theirs could be used anywhere in the world. The advent of such powerful satellites allows scientists to look at other sources of emissions, such as factories or homes too. “It’s a revolutionary approach.”

Mary Johnson, who researches environmental health at Harvard University’s T.H. Chan School of Public Health and was not involved in the study, said she’s not aware of a similar study of this size, or one that uses satellite data so extensively. “Their analysis seems sound,” she said, noting that the authors controlled for variables such as the COVID-19 pandemic and shifts toward working from home.

The results, Johnson added, “totally make sense” and align with other research in this area.

When London implemented congestion pricing in 2003, for example, it reduced traffic and emissions and increased life expectancy. That is the direction this latest research could go too.

“They didn’t take the next step and look at health data,” she said, “which I think would be interesting.”

Daniel Horton, who leads Northwestern University’s climate change research group, also sees value in this latest work.

“The results help to confirm the sort of predictions that numerical air quality modelers have been making for the past decade,” he said, adding that it could also lay the foundation for similar research. “This proof of concept paper is a great start and augurs good things to come.”

Eckel hopes that, eventually, advances in satellite technology will allow for more widespread detection of other types of emissions too, such as fine particulate matter. That could even help account for some of the potential downsides of EVs, which are heavier and could therefore kick up more tire or brake dust than their gasoline counterparts. On the whole, though, she believes the picture overwhelmingly illustrates how driving an electric car is better not just for the planet but for people.

Research like this, she says, underscores the importance of continued EV adoption, the sales of which have slumped recently, and the need to do so equitably. Although lower-income neighborhoods have historically borne the brunt of pollution from highways and traffic, they can’t always afford the relatively high cost of EVs. Eckel hopes that research like this can help guide policymakers.

“There are concerns that some of the communities that really stand to benefit the most from reductions in air pollution are also some of the communities that are really at risk of being left behind in the transition,” she said.

Previous research has shown that EVs could alleviate harms such as asthma in children, and detailed data like this latest study can help highlight both where more work needs to be done and what’s working.

“It’s really exciting that we were able to show that there were these measurable improvements in the air that we’re all breathing,” she said.

Another arguably hopeful finding was that the median increase in electric vehicle usage during the study was 272 per ZIP code.

That, Eckel says, means there is plenty of opportunity to make our air even cleaner.