Tracking the balance of power
California is a key congressional battleground, at least its swing districts. Now, Republicans have a majority of a mere five seats in the U.S. House, and California’s delegation includes 40 Democrats and 12 Republicans.
And that means the outcomes of tight congressional races in California are looming increasingly important for which party will control the U.S. House next year. Both parties are focusing on six swing districts.
These races are some of the most expensive in the nation, with well over $200 million in campaign fundraising already reported, both directly to candidates and in outside spending.
-
As you watch these results, keep in mind:
- There more more than 22.6 million registered voters in California.
- In 2020, the last presidential election, more than 16.1 million Californians cast a ballot.
-
Get full results:
-
Keep in mind that in tight races the winner may not be determined for days or weeks after Election Day. This is normal. Here's why.
-
In California, ballots postmarked on or before Nov. 5 are counted toward the results as long as they arrive within seven days of the election. The California Secretary of State's Office is scheduled to certify the final vote on Dec. 13.
District 13: Gray vs. Duarte
The candidates:
- Adam Gray | Small Businessman / Educator | Democrat
- John Duarte (Incumbent) | Farmer / Valley Congressman | Republican
The district
Stretching along the San Joaquin Valley, the district encompasses all of Merced County and parts of Madera, Stanislaus, Fresno and San Joaquin counties. The heavily agricultural district is almost 70% Hispanic, with nearly one in three residents born outside the United States. One in five lives below the poverty line.
Voter registration: 40.9% Democratic, 29.5% Republican, 21.8% no party preference
Primary results: John Duarte, 54.9%, Adam Gray, 45.1%
The scoop
In 2022, the race for this seat was one of the closest in the nation. GOP Rep. John Duarte, a fourth-generation farmer in Modesto, narrowly warded off a challenge from former Democratic state Assemblymember Adam Gray. The two are locked in a rematch in November.
Both are trying to define themselves as the best moderate politician for the district. Duarte — who flipped the seat red in 2022 for the first time since 1974 — has positioned himself as a moderate Republican who is fiscally conservative but who has bucked his own party on border restrictions for undocumented migrants. He has also resisted calling for a federal abortion ban, arguing women should have access during the first trimester.
Gray, a self-described “radical centrist,” has also defied his own party, noting he introduced a bill to suspend the state’s gas tax increase and lost committee assignments over a proposal to draw more water from Central Valley. In 2022, his moderate record helped him outperform Gov. Gavin Newsom, winning almost 50% of the vote.
Gray and Duarte are both focused on water issues — one of the top priorities for district voters, and both have vowed to protect water access for local farms. They will also be seeking support among Latino voters, who make up more than half of the district’s eligible voting population.
Fundraising
District 22: Salas vs. Valadao
The candidates:
- Rudy Salas | College Teacher | Democrat
- David G. Valadao (Incumbent) | Farmer / Congressman |Republican
The district
Located in the San Joaquin Valley — the largest agricultural region in California — the district spans Kern, Kings and Tulare counties and includes the cities of Delano, Shafter and Porterville, plus parts of Bakersfield. It is a Latino-majority district, with almost 70% of Mexican descent. One in five families live in poverty, and only one in 10 residents have a bachelor’s degree or higher.
Voter registration: 41.2% Democratic, 27.3% Republican, 23.1% no party preference
Primary results: David Valadao 32.7%, Rudy Salas 31.3%
The scoop
In this highly competitive Central Valley district, a rematch is set between GOP incumbent and dairy farmer David Valadao and former Democratic state Assemblymember Rudy Salas. In 2022, Valadao beat Salas by less than 4,000 votes.
It is a seat Valadao has kept winning since 2012 despite the blue leaning of the district, with registered Democrats far outnumbering Republicans. That’s partly due to Valadao’s moderate conservatism but also to low turnout among Latino voters, the region’s largest voting bloc for Democrats. Valadao was ousted by a Democrat in 2018 but regained the seat in 2020. In 2022, he was one of the only two Republicans to hold onto their seats after voting to impeach former President Donald Trump in 2021.
Both Salas and Valadao faced challengers from within their own party in the March top-two primary. Democratic party leaders spent millions backing Salas and preventing Sen. Melissa Hurtado, a Bakersfield Democrat, from splitting Democratic votes. And Valadao fended off pressure from Chris Mathys, a self-described “MAGA Conservative.”
Salas will likely face similar attacks from last cycle, as conservatives are trying again to tie him to high prices and crime rates, but Salas has also touted his moderate record, such as being the only Democrat to oppose a 2017 gas tax hike and writing a bill to clamp down on shoplifters two years ago. Democrats are counting on Salas to turn out Latinos: Son of a farmworker, Salas was the first Latino on the Bakersfield City Council, and would be the first Latino to ever represent the congressional district.
Fundraising
District 27: Whitesides vs. Garcia
The candidates:
- George Whitesides | Aerospace Businessman / Father | Democrat
- Mike Garcia (Incumbent) | Congressman / Father | Republican
The district
Based in northern Los Angeles County, the district is home to the Antelope Valley and includes the high desert cities of Santa Clarita, Palmdale and Lancaster as well as parts of the city of Los Angeles. The district also hosts multiple aerospace manufacturing companies and defense contractors. Hispanic residents account for almost half of the district’s population.
Voter registration: 40.7% Democratic, 30.1% Republican, 21.5% no party preference
Primary results: Mike Garcia 54.9%, George Whitesides 32.8%
The scoop
This is one of five GOP-held congressional districts in California that voted for President Joe Biden in 2020, and one of the most closely watched toss-ups this November.
GOP Rep. Mike Garcia, son of Mexican immigrants and a U.S. Navy veteran who worked for defense giant Raytheon, was first elected to the seat during a special election in 2020, replacing a Democrat who resigned amid scandals of inappropriate relationships. He held onto the seat in November 2020 by a 333-vote margin against Democratic challenger Christy Smith, and defeated her again in 2022.
This time, Garcia faces a new Democrat: George Whitesides, former chief of staff of NASA under President Barack Obama. He’s leading Garcia in fundraising and cash in the bank, and has attacked Garcia for supporting Donald Trump and backing legislation to restrict abortion and cut funding to social welfare programs.
Garcia in turn has argued he is focused on kitchen-table issues, slamming Whitesides as an “extreme liberal” who only moved to the area in 2010 after an education on the East coast. The Republican is backed by a pro-cryptocurrency super PAC that pledged to spend millions on TV ads.
Fundraising
District 41: Rollins vs. Calvert
The candidates:
- Will Rollins | Counterterrorism Law Attorney | Democrat
- Ken Calvert (Incumbent) |U.S. Representative | Republican
The district
The Inland Empire district located in western Riverside County is home to the heavily Democratic city of Palm Springs, famous for electing the nation’s first all-LGBTQ city council. But it also includes the swing city of Corona and more Republican parts of the county. The once-deeply conservative district has shifted left over the years, partly due to an increasingly diverse population, including Los Angeles transplants, and the redistricting in 2021.
Voter registration: 36.3% Democratic, 37.0% Republican, 18.6% no party preference
Primary results: Ken Calvert 53%, Will Rollins 38.4%
The scoop
GOP Rep. Ken Calvert — the longest-serving Republican in the California congressional delegation — had represented the area without much challenge since 1993, until a close race in 2022 almost flipped the seat blue. His opponent, former federal prosecutor Will Rollins, is running against him again in November.
Make It Make Sense: Election 2024 Edition
The two have clashed over LGBTQ rights, an issue that is especially important in Palm Springs, where as many as half of the residents identify as part of that community. Rollins, who is gay, is trying to connect with gay voters with his personal experience while attacking Calvert’s past votes against federal recognition of same-sex marriages and against repealing the military’s “Don’t Ask Don’t Tell” policy. Calvert in turn said his position on same-sex marriage has evolved, noting some Democrats voted the same way he did at the time.
Calvert has attacked Rollins’ prosecutor background, slamming him as “soft on crime” and criticizing him for being largely silent on a November ballot initiative that would enhance penalties for certain petty crimes. Rollins stressed his background prosecuting participants in the Jan. 6 riot at the U.S. Capitol, while Calvert voted against certifying the election results that day citing concerns about voting irregularities in Arizona and Pennsylvania. Calvert did, however, say he believes Biden won legitimately.
Fundraising
District 45: Steel vs. Tran
The candidates:
- Derek Tran | Workers' Rights Advocate |Democrat
- Michelle Steel (Incumbent) | U.S. Representative | Republican
The district
The C-shaped district is located in northwestern Orange County, covering cities including Garden Grove and Buena Park. It is home to Little Saigon, the largest Vietnamese enclave outside Vietnam itself. Asian Americans — who make up 36% of the district population — are a key voting bloc. Latino and white people each account for roughly a third of the district.
Voter registration: 37.3% Democratic, 33.0% Republican, 24.0% no party preference
Primary results: Michelle Steel 54.9%, Derek Tran 15.9%
The politically diverse district is among the key ones in California that have helped determine control of Congress in recent elections. The district supported Joe Biden for president in 2020 but went for Republican John Cox during the 2018 gubernatorial election.
The seat is currently held by GOP Rep. Michelle Steel, a South Korean immigrant who narrowly defeated a Democrat incumbent in 2020 and defended her seat against another Asian American challenger in 2022. This year, she faces a challenge from Derek Tran, a personal injury lawyer, veteran and son of political refugees, who would be the first Vietnamese American to represent Little Saigon in the House.
The area’s large Vietnamese-American population could be key to this election. Democrats are counting on Tran to make inroads into a community that typically leans conservative. But Tran faces an uphill climb: In past campaigns, Steel was able to tap into the anti-communist sentiment shared by many Vietnamese voters and is better recognized as the incumbent. She has also outraised and outspent Tran, with triple the amount Tran had entering July.
Fundraising
LAist stories related to the race
- As an OC supervisor, Michelle Steel awarded a $1.2M pandemic meals contract to her campaign mail printer
- Orange County's Little Saigon heavily courted in tough Congressional battle
District 47: Min vs. Baugh
The candidates:
- Dave Min | State Senator / Dad | Democrat
- Scott Baugh | Orange County Business Owner | Republican
The district
Running along the coastline of south Orange County, this district contains the Democratic city of Irvine as well as GOP-leaning cities such as Huntington Beach and Newport Beach. More than half of the residents are white, while Asians account for nearly a quarter of the population.
Voter registration: 35.0% Democratic, 35.0% Republican, 23.7% no party preference
Primary results: Scott Baugh 32.1%, Dave Min 25.9%.
The scoop
The district — which became a battleground district after the redistricting following the 2020 Census and is another one targeted by national Democrats — is represented by progressive firebrand Rep. Katie Porter, who is not seeking re-election and failed in her run for U.S. Senate this March.
GOP attorney and former state lawmaker Scott Baugh, who narrowly lost to Porter in 2022, is running again this year. Democrats are hoping to hold onto the seat with state Sen. Dave Min, who is vowing to secure the backing of Asian-American voters, who could hold the key to the race.
Both candidates have tried to paint each other as extreme, and the issue of crime is front and center. Baugh and his allies have hammered Min for his drunken driving arrest and portrayed him as soft-on-crime for supporting bills restricting the release of criminal records of certain felons upon completion of their sentences, although Min has now backed Proposition 36, an initiative to toughen penalties on retail thefts and certain drug offenses. Min has called Baugh a “career criminal,” targeting his past election law violations and the rule Baugh implemented as chairperson of the Orange County GOP that deterred Republican candidates from supporting police unions.
Fundraising
Did LAist help you vote? Member support made these voter guides possible.
Our election coverage is focused on you: helping you understand the results of these races and their impact on our everyday lives. And we don’t stop there, even after results are in, you need a source of trusted reporting that will hold those in power to account and shine a light on issues important to our communities.
Even after the last ballot is cast, LAist reporting and voting guides are here for you. But we need to hear from you now with your support to know that this work we’re doing is important.
We cannot do this essential work without your help. We rely on donations from readers like you to stay independent, which keeps our nonprofit newsroom strong and accountable to you.
At a time when the need for local journalism has never been greater, many newsrooms are facing cutbacks, including LAist. Member support — your support — is what will sustain a free press in Southern California.
LAist’s mission is to be here for you, so please be here for us now with a donation to power our trusted local reporting. Step up right now and make the choice to give. Because that’s exactly what it is — a choice. It's a choice with consequences. If readers do not choose to step up and donate, the future of fact-based news in Southern California will not be as strong.
No matter what happens in the world, LAist will remain a voice you know and trust.
Thank you for your generous support.
Sincerely,
