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TV Junkie: Our Picks for the SAG Awards

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sandra-bullock-2010-SAG-awards.jpg
Sandra Bullock at the 2010 SAG Awards, happier times [Photo by Thomas Attila Lewis]


Sandra Bullock at the 2010 SAG Awards, happier times [Photo by Thomas Attila Lewis]
Hard to believe it's already been a year since we last went to the Screen Actors Guild Awards and while it's a shame that we won't be there this year, we look forward to going back next year. [check out our 2009 and 2010 coverage]. Was it only last year that Sandra Bullock pulled then-husband Jesse James onto the stage in the press room to urge us all to applaud for this "handsome" man who "has been so supportive" of her and her efforts? I guess we'll be missing timeless moments like that this year. We felt awful for her but, then again, look at that frickin' guy, it's like she was asking for trouble.We made our TV picks below with some trepidation after our poor performance on the Golden Globes. We actually did a bit of research this time and talked to some SAG members about how they've been getting marketed to for the past couple months: it's staggering how much material gets sent to them on a daily basis, particularly from the film production companies which are now leveraging their wins at the Golden Globes, which is again troubling because both the process and the organization is both incredibly flawed and open to fraud. Hopefully the TV awards will be associated a bit more with reality this time around. We'll be watching the live broadcast at 5pm Pacific on TNT/TBS, follow along with us on Twitter.

PRIMETIME TELEVISION

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Television Movie or Miniseries
JOHN GOODMAN / Neal Nicol - YOU DON'T KNOW JACK (HBO)
AL PACINO / Jack Kevorkian - YOU DON'T KNOW JACK (HBO) The TV Junkie Pick: Should Win / Will Win
DENNIS QUAID / Bill Clinton - THE SPECIAL RELATIONSHIP (HBO)
EDGAR RAMÁREZ / Ilich Ramírez Sánchez, aka "Carlos" - CARLOS (Sundance Channel)
PATRICK STEWART / Macbeth - MACBETH (GREAT PERFORMANCES) (Thirteen/PBS)
I'm pretty sure that the SAG will follow in the steps of the Emmys and Golden Globes on picking Al Pacino for this award.

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Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Television Movie or Miniseries
CLAIRE DANES / Temple Grandin - TEMPLE GRANDIN (HBO) The TV Junkie Pick: Should Win / Will Win
CATHERINE O'HARA / Aunt Ann - TEMPLE GRANDIN (HBO)
JULIA ORMOND / Eustacia Grandin - TEMPLE GRANDIN (HBO)
WINONA RYDER / Lois Wilson - WHEN LOVE IS NOT ENOUGH: THE LOIS WILSON STORY (CBS)
SUSAN SARANDON / Janet Good - YOU DON'T KNOW JACK (HBO)
I'm pretty sure that the SAG will follow in the steps of the Emmys and Golden Globes on picking Claire Danes for this award, very deserving.

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Drama Series
STEVE BUSCEMI / Nucky Thompson - BOARDWALK EMPIRE (HBO) Will Win
BRYAN CRANSTON / Walter White - BREAKING BAD (AMC) The TV Junkie Pick: Should Win
MICHAEL C. HALL / Dexter Morgan - DEXTER (SHOWTIME)
JON HAMM / Don Draper - MAD MEN (AMC)
HUGH LAURIE / Dr. Gregory House - HOUSE (FOX)
We think Buscemi is fantastic but we don't think his range is being as full leveraged as Cranston so consistently is in his role on "Breaking Bad." There is also the "newness" factor to consider - "Breaking Bad" has been incredible for every season, but the lavish "Boardwalk Empire" burst onto screens late in the year.

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Drama Series
GLENN CLOSE / Patty Hewes - DAMAGES (FX) The TV Junkie Pick: Should Win
MARISKA HARGITAY / Det. Olivia Benson - LAW & ORDER: SPECIAL VICTIMS UNIT (NBC)
JULIANNA MARGULIES / Alicia Florrick - THE GOOD WIFE (CBS) Will Win
ELISABETH MOSS / Peggy Olson - MAD MEN (AMC)
KYRA SEDGWICK / Dep. Chief Brenda Leigh Johnson - THE CLOSER (TNT)
This is a tough one as Sedgwick's Emmys win was a surprise to everyone, including herself - even though we haven't closely followed "The Closer," we know her best work was done early in the series and not last year. Glenn Close has been incredible every season of "Damages" but we're not sure that many people we watching it last year before it made its move to DirecTV. This leaves Julianna Margulies as the best performer on a widely watched (ie broadcast network) show.

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Comedy Series
ALEC BALDWIN / Jack Donaghy - 30 ROCK (NBC) The TV Junkie Pick: Should Win / Will Win
TY BURRELL / Phil Dunphy - MODERN FAMILY (ABC)
STEVE CARELL / Michael Scott - THE OFFICE (NBC)
CHRIS COLFER / Kurt Hummel - GLEE (FOX)
ED O'NEILL / Jay Pritchett - MODERN FAMILY (ABC)
Another up in the air category. Yes, Eric Stonestreet won the Emmy despite being up against castmate Jesse Tyler Ferguson and now we have Ty Burrell vs Ed O'Neill, both from a show that is truly powered by an ensemble. Then again, we have to take into account that Colfer won the Golden Globe instead of Stonestreet - will that have any bearing or were members of the SAG as surprised at the win as Colfer was? Will the SAG get sentimental and give Steve Carell an award as he exits "The Office" or will they get their act together and give it to Alec Baldwin, who again deserves it? This is probably our shakiest pick.

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Comedy Series
EDIE FALCO / Jackie Peyton - NURSE JACKIE (Showtime)
TINA FEY / Liz Lemon - 30 ROCK (NBC) The TV Junkie Pick: Should Win
JANE LYNCH / Sue Sylvester - GLEE (FOX) Will Win ("Glee" hype seems insurmountable)
SOFIA VERGARA / Gloria Delgado-Pritchett - MODERN FAMILY (ABC)
BETTY WHITE / Elka Ostrovsky - HOT IN CLEVELAND (TV Land)
Edie Falco complained at her Emmy win that she wasn't a comedic actress and that "Nurse Jackie" wasn't a comedy - hopefully the SAG won't make the same mistake, although she did get nominated here. Sue Sylvester is funny but not funny enough for Jane Lynch to win award after frickin' award - c'mon people! We love Betty White (and we loved talking to her at the SAGs last year) but how can this nomination be anything other than nostalgic? Will the SAG award Vergara for "newness" or will they give it to Fey for being a master of the craft? We know who should win but who will win seems up in the air.

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Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Drama Series
BOARDWALK EMPIRE (HBO) The TV Junkie Pick: Should Win / Will Win
THE CLOSER (TNT)
DEXTER (Showtime)
THE GOOD WIFE (CBS)
MAD MEN (AMC)
"Boardwalk Empire" has easily the most comprehensive ensemble in this grouping.

Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Comedy Series
30 ROCK (NBC)
GLEE (FOX)
HOT IN CLEVELAND (TV Land)
MODERN FAMILY (ABC) The TV Junkie Pick: Should Win / Will Win
THE OFFICE (NBC)
In the hopes that all the recent TV appearances by the various members of the "Modern Family" cast have broken through the "Glee" hype.

LIFE ACHIEVEMENT AWARD
Screen Actors Guild Awards 47th Annual Life Achievement Award
Ernest Borgnine Congrats to Ernest!

[Just for the heck of it, here are our movie picks.]

THEATRICAL MOTION PICTURES

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Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
JEFF BRIDGES / Rooster Cogburn - TRUE GRIT (Paramount Pictures) The TV Junkie Pick: Should Win
ROBERT DUVALL / Felix Bush - GET LOW (Sony Pictures Classics)
JESSE EISENBERG / Mark Zuckerberg - THE SOCIAL NETWORK (Columbia Pictures)
COLIN FIRTH / King George VI - THE KING'S SPEECH (The Weinstein Company) Will Win
JAMES FRANCO / Aron Ralston - 127 HOURS (Fox Searchlight Pictures)
It's doubtful that SAG members will be able to resist the daily (at least) mail and packages sent on behalf of The King's Speech.

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
ANNETTE BENING / Nic - THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT (Focus Features)
NICOLE KIDMAN / Becca - RABBIT HOLE (Lionsgate)
JENNIFER LAWRENCE / Ree Dolly - WINTER'S BONE (Roadside Attractions)
NATALIE PORTMAN / Nina Sayers - BLACK SWAN (Fox Searchlight Pictures) The TV Junkie Pick: Should Win / Will Win
HILARY SWANK / Betty Anne Waters - CONVICTION (Fox Searchlight Pictures)

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
CHRISTIAN BALE / Dicky Eklund - THE FIGHTER (Paramount Pictures and Relativity Media) The TV Junkie Pick: Should Win / Will Win
JOHN HAWKES / Teardrop - WINTER'S BONE (Roadside Attractions)
JEREMY RENNER / James Coughlin - THE TOWN (Warner Bros. Pictures)
MARK RUFFALO / Paul - THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT (Focus Features)
GEOFFREY RUSH / Lionel Logue - THE KING&'S SPEECH (The Weinstein Company)

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
AMY ADAMS / Charlene Fleming - THE FIGHTER (Paramount Pictures and Relativity Media)
HELENA BONHAM CARTER / Queen Elizabeth - THE KING'S SPEECH (The Weinstein Company)
MILA KUNIS / Lily - BLACK SWAN (Fox Searchlight Pictures)
MELISSA LEO / Alice Ward - THE FIGHTER (Paramount Pictures and Relativity Media)
HAILEE STEINFELD / Mattie Ross - TRUE GRIT (Paramount Pictures) The TV Junkie Pick: Should Win / Will Win

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
BLACK SWAN (Fox Searchlight Pictures)
THE FIGHTER (Paramount Pictures and Relativity Media)
THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT (Focus Features)
THE KING'S SPEECH (The Weinstein Company)
THE SOCIAL NETWORK (Columbia Pictures) The TV Junkie Pick: Should Win / Will Win