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With a strong El Niño expected in SoCal, should you consider flood insurance?
Muddy waves break on a debris-strewn shoreline in Ventura in 2023, a year that saw heavy rain throughout Southern California.
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Ashley Balderrama
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LAist
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El Niño is officially with us, and it’s looking like it’s likely going to be a doozy.
The natural global climate pattern temporarily warms the eastern tropical Pacific, causing extreme weather patterns across the globe. A strong El Niño has historically, though not always, been associated with very wet winters here in Southern California.
“ We are now explicitly expecting the strongest El Niño event ever observed,” said UCLA climate scientist Daniel Swain. “ There will be a strong tilt in the odds towards wet, perhaps even very wet conditions in Southern California.”
Maybe you remember the very wet El Niños of years past — 1982 and 1997. Both were historic events that led to billions of dollars in damage and dozens of deaths.
“This is highly likely to exceed what occurred in [1982 or 1997], and by a considerable margin,” Swain said.
The good news? You still have time to prepare.
Experts emphasize that people need to develop an understanding of their personal risk, talk to neighbors who may have experienced flooding in the past and consider getting insured.
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What you need to know about El Niño
El Niño years can be associated with lots of rain in Southern California, though there's no guarantee of a deluge.
And wet winters aren’t always disastrous. What matters is how much water falls within how much time. In fact, going back to when modern records began in 1950, most of the years when we've seen the highest flood-related costs were not during El Niño events.
But there are concerns beyond rain for late 2026 and early 2027.
El Niño this time will coincide with another natural phenomenon — the highest tides of the year in a nearly two-decade cycle known as “the declination of the moon.” We’re reaching the max this winter, according to Scripps scientist Mark Merrifield.
Because El Niño warms the ocean, it also raises sea levels temporarily. On top of that there’s an unprecedented level of human-caused global warming in the mix — that has already raised sea levels by as much as a foot along California’s coast over the last century, and is making normal weather patterns more extreme.
“So we start adding these things up, and they're actually not so small anymore,” said UCLA climate scientist Daniel Swain. “The risk of coastal flooding is actually very high and almost guaranteed.”
It’s not only the coast — inland areas, especially along creeks and rivers, are also at risk due to more extreme rainfall driven by El Niño as well as human-caused global heating, Swain and other experts said.
Know your risk
The Federal Emergency Management Agency, or FEMA, compiles flood risk maps (you can also use this L.A. County map here).
Be aware that they are not comprehensive and can be out-of-date. Also, they include only risk from coastal flooding, such as tides and waves, as well as from rivers, creeks, channels and levies, which risk spilling over after back-to-back severe storms.
But the maps don’t include flood risk from short, heavy downpours or mudflows in recent burn zones, said Brett Sanders, a professor leading UC Irvine’s Flood Lab. So even if your home is not within an official flood zone, you could be at risk.
“What used to be grasslands and open space has been covered more and more by asphalt and concrete,” Sanders said. “And so more and more water runs off and these flood risks are increasing.”
Flooding diverts traffic on a Long Beach street in 2024.
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Eric Thayer
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Associated Press
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His lab has been working to figure out how to develop more comprehensive flood maps, to better determine risks and reflect changes brought on by a warming climate.
But Sanders said one of your best bets to prepare is low-tech: speak with neighbors or officials who know your local area, and remember how past severe rain events have affected your street or neighborhood. For example, if you live at the base of a hill, or in a basement or ground-level apartment, you’re more likely to see some water flow. That historical memory can help you develop a plan for a worst-case scenario.
“Some common sense local awareness from people is really valuable,” Sanders said. “Talk to somebody that's been around for a while. Ask them, ‘Do you remember floods happening here in the past?’ Or, ‘What happened in 1997 when we had our last really wet El Nino?’”
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Our winter weather could see the biggest impacts.
Once you know, consider filling sand bags ahead of time, keep drainages around and on your house clear, and think about how flooding may affect your travel routes.
People who live in recent wildfire burn areas are likely through the worst of it, Swain said.
“ I think the initial highest risk period will have passed by this winter,” he said.
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Still, mudflow is possible. So remember how mud flowed during the storms soon after the 2025 L.A. fires and make sure you have what you need to protect your property and evacuate safely if needed.
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Consider flood insurance
Homeowners and renters should take a moment to read their current insurance policies closely. Most homeowners insurance, as well as renters insurance, does not include coverage for flooding (water damage coverage is not flood coverage). Less than 2% of Californians have flood insurance at all.
If you don’t have it, get a quote, said Amy Bach, director of United Policyholders, a nonprofit that advocates for insurance consumers. Flood insurance is usually a lot cheaper than typical insurance.
“ Don't make a decision not to carry flood insurance without getting a quote,” she said. “Find out how much it would cost before you decide.”
If you do get flood insurance, it’ll take about a month to kick in, so you want to start looking now before the official start of the wet season in October.
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You can get flood insurance through the National Flood Insurance Program, or some private companies. United Policyholders has a variety of resources to figure out which product is right for you. Bach also pointed to a tool by the California Department of Insurance to compare various insurers based on complaints against them, as well the Federal Alliance for Safe Homes, which can help you identify your risks.
“If it rains, it can flood,” Bach said. “And that is more true today than it used to be.”
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You come to LAist because you want independent reporting and trustworthy local information. Our nonprofit newsroom doesn’t answer to shareholders looking to turn a profit. Instead, we answer to you and our communities. We are free to follow facts wherever they lead and to hold power to account without fear or favor. Our only loyalty is to our readers and listeners and our mission: to inform, engage, and strengthen Southern California’s communities.
If this story helped you, please become a monthly member today to help sustain this mission. It just takes 1 minute to donate below.
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