El Niño is here. What that means for fire season in Southern California

Southern Californians could face floods and fires this year.

A hot, dry winter has led to fires already, and experts said Friday at a news conference in Los Angeles that that is projected to continue.

Different from previous wildfire seasons, though, experts are also closely watching El Niño, a powerful weather pattern that causes changes in winds and ocean temperatures.

“California is faced with multiple disasters, whether it be fires, floods, hazardous material incidents,” said Brian Marshall, fire and rescue chief with the California Office of Emergency Services. Marshall said the El Niño “could impact fires and could impact flooding across the state.”

The National Weather Service is predicting a 63% chance of a “very strong” El Niño from November to January. It could be one of the most powerful since 1950, according to the weather service’s Climate Prediction Center.

Heavy El Niño storms could trigger flash flooding and debris flows in wildfire burn scar areas.

The effects of the rapidly developing El Niño on this year’s wildfire season remain uncertain, and experts urged residents to stay vigilant.

“Even very strong El Niño events do not lead to the expected impact everywhere,” according to the Climate Prediction Center.

William Deverell, director of the Huntington-USC Institute on California and the West, said more rain can also increase plant growth, which can eventually dry out and create more fuel for fires.

Robert Garcia, fire chief in the Angeles National Forest, said the recent Burro Fire provided “some indicators of what may be ahead” as vegetation starts to dry. The Burro Fire charred 30 acres and burned for about a week in May in the San Gabriel Mountains north of Glendora.

What you can do to stay safe

Fire officials advised people to create defensible space around their homes by clearing it of dry vegetation and other flammable materials.

Pre-fire conditions, including the abundance of dry vegetation, were “dominant drivers” of burn severity in the Eaton, Palisades and Hughes fires in January 2025, according to a new study led by San Diego State University in collaboration with NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory researchers.

“Regions like Los Angeles … have a lot of human populations who are living closer to these environments that are susceptible to wildfires,” said Madeleine Pascolini-Campbell, a scientist at JPL and a co-author of the study.

Beyond fire prevention, defensible space also helps firefighters enter properties to extinguish flames.

“Wind-driven, ember-casting wildfires moving through a community without defensible space makes it very difficult for us to be able to combat those fires,” Los Angeles Fire Chief Jaime E. Moore said at the news conference. “It makes it unsafe for our firefighters and those that are working hard to protect your home.”