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NASA Researchers 99.9% Certain SoCal Is Getting A Big Quake Soon

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Scientists suggest that a big earthquake is likely strike the L.A. area within the next 2 and a half years.

A new study from seismologists at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena says that the "probability is 99.9 percent" that an earthquake measuring 5.0 or greater on or near faults in the San Gabriel Valley will happen sometime in the short time frame, reports the L.A. Daily News. The as-yet-unpublished report indicates that the quake could take place along or near the same faults responsible for the La Habra quake in March 28, 2014, which inspired Disneyland earthquake selfies.

There's a 35 percent chance that an earthquake measuring 6.0 or higher could hit during that same time frame, the study suggests. The epicenter of the quake could be anywhere within about 60 miles from the 2014 La Habra quake on the northwest corner of Orange County.

The study says the 2014 La Habra—which had a magnitude of 5.1—“occurred between the right-lateral strike-slip Whittier fault and the Puente Hills thrust fault” and that another quake, possibly as big as 6.3 “could occur on any or several of these faults, which may or may not have been identified by geologic surface mapping.”

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Authored by JPL seismologist Andrea Donnellan—with the help of other earthquake specialists—the study has not yet been made public, but will be announced formally in the coming days.