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The Brief

The most important stories for you to know today
  • Sorry, they're not coming down. Here's why
    sign in foreground of photo in front of a house and overcast sky reads "FOR SALE" in all caps + red letters.
    Mortgage rates have ticked up recently despite the Federal Reserve's recent rate cut.

    Topline:

    Mortgage rates have jumped, despite the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a half-point last month. What does this mean for homebuyers?

    Why it matters: For homebuyers, the ever-shifting rate environment can foster uncertainty: Is it better to wait for mortgage rates to fall, or start looking now?

    What to do now: Experts advise against trying to time the market — including when it comes to buying a home. That's for two reasons.

    • First, if you buy a home and then mortgage rates do fall, you can refinance your mortgage and take advantage of the lower rate. But if you wait and rates go up, it just gets harder to afford a home.
    • Second, home prices do tend to rise over time.

    So where are mortgage rates headed? That's difficult to answer, since mortgage rates are affected by so many factors. But there's one thing that experts generally agree on: They likely won't go anywhere near the levels of a few years go.

    The best time to shop: This makes fall a good time to shop: less competition can mean lower prices and more ability to negotiate.

    Seasonality for home buying has real impact, picking up in spring, peaking in June. Then, it slows in late summer through fall, reaching it's slowest during winter.

    You might expect that mortgage rates would be falling right now after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a half-point last month.

    Instead, mortgage rates jumped higher. The latest data from Freddie Mac showed that the average 30-year mortgage rate had increased to 6.4%, more than a quarter-point higher than it was two weeks ago.

    The news is probably an unwelcome surprise to the folks who had been hoping for lower interest rates to finally come off the sidelines and start shopping for a home.

    Here’s what’s going on — and what it means for those trying to buy a home now.

    The Fed doesn’t set mortgage rates

    Here's the thing: The Fed can influence mortgage rates but it doesn't set them.

    Instead, mortgage rates mainly follow a different number: the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds. That yield has gone up recently for a number of reasons, including because investors are expecting the Fed to be a little more cautious in cutting rates after the jumbo-sized cut last month.

    But it's not just the 10-year Treasury yield influencing mortgage rates.

    The mortgage lender needs to cover its costs and make a profit, so it adds its own percentage on top, for example. And the specific mortgage rate that you get will depend on your own factors, like your credit score and the size and type of loan you’re getting.

    That said, despite the recent uptick, mortgage rates are still more than a full point lower than they were this time last year, falling as investors anticipated the Fed's rate cuts and factored those into the 10-year Treasury yield.

    The lower mortgage rates compared to a year ago have been good for some homeowners. Lots of people have taken advantage to refinance their mortgages if they bought their homes in the last couple of years, when rates were higher.

    The lower rates available now mean those homeowners can potentially save hundreds of dollars a month if they refinance.

    Mortgage rates have ticked up slightly in October

    A graph with a red line that spans January '20-'24. The line slopes down then up, then plateaus before sloping down again
    Weekly average for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage
    (
    Juweek Adolphe and Alyson Hurt/NPR
    /
    Freddie Mac
    )

    Where mortgage rates go from here

    So where are mortgage rates headed? That's difficult to answer, since mortgage rates are affected by so many factors.

    But there's one thing that experts generally agree on: They likely won't go anywhere near the levels of a few years go.

    In 2019, for example, rates for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage ranged from about 3.75% to 4.5%. And they dropped to as low as 2.65% in early 2021 as the pandemic wore on.

    Many forecasts have rates near 6% at the end of this year — and falling to about 5.8% next year.

    “I think the new normal is maybe 6% mortgage rate,” says Lawrence Yun, the chief economist at the National Association of Realtors. “If we are lucky, maybe we get to 5.5% mortgage rate. Or if we are unlucky, maybe the mortgage rate trends back up towards 7%.”

    But Yun is confident one of thing: The days of 3% and 4% mortgage rates are over — at least in his lifetime, he says.

    So what to do now?

    For homebuyers, the ever-shifting rate environment can foster uncertainty: Is it better to wait for mortgage rates to fall, or start looking now?

    Experts advise against trying to time the market — including when it comes to buying a home. That's for two reasons.

    First, if you buy a home and then mortgage rates do fall, you can refinance your mortgage and take advantage of the lower rate. But if you wait and rates go up, it just gets harder to afford a home.

    Second, home prices do tend to rise over time.

    Yun says that even people who bought homes at much higher mortgage rates — like 15% in the early 1980s — have typically had those purchases turn out well, because of rising home values and the ability to refinance as rates fell.

    How's the housing market looking? There's some good news

    Here's a positive development for buyers: There's more inventory now. The number of homes for sale in September was 6.4% higher than a month earlier and 33.6% above a year ago, according to a report from the brokerage RE/MAX, which looked at single-family homes in 52 markets.

    Meanwhile, the days a house stays on the market have been increasing — suggesting the market is getting a bit less competitive.

    "I think there is more opportunity for buyers to get in there,” says Sara Briseño Gerrish, a real estate agent at RE/MAX Unlimited in San Antonio.

    And there's another indicator showing fewer buyers to compete against: The number of people applying for mortgages has fallen for three straight weeks (though it's still 7% above this time last year).

    But home prices remain high

    Mortgage rates aren’t the only factor affecting the housing market: Home prices matter too. And, unfortunately for buyers, those remain high.

    The median home price has risen about 50% since early 2020, with a major spike during the pandemic. The price increases have slowed, but prices haven't really dropped. The median existing-home sales price in August was $416,700, about 3% higher than a year earlier — showing the stickiness of high prices.

    The median home price has risen almost 50% over the last 5 years

    Graph with a red line that steadily climbs from july '19 to july '24
    Median sales price for all homes, by month
    (
    Juweek Adolphe and Alyson Hurt/NPR
    /
    National Association of Realtors
    )

    The season also has an impact. Homebuying picks up in the spring and peaks in June as warm weather and the end of the school year encourage people to shop. The market typically slows in late summer and throughout the fall, reaching its slowest period during the winter.

    That can make fall a good time to shop, that is, if you can find a home that fits your needs: Less competition can mean lower prices and more ability to negotiate.

    Fannie Mae is predicting that home sales could be 10% higher next year, coming off the very low levels we’ve been seeing. But it could be spring before the market really picks up.

  • Time to get your shot given 2026's trend

    Topline:

    The annual flu season usually starts in October or November. But this year, it looks like the flu started to pick up in early September.

    Why now: The timing of the flu season isn't the only thing that's odd. It's also unusual that flu activity seems to have started in Western states, such as California, Washington, Hawaii and Alaska, experts say.

    The backstory: It's unclear why flu activity would have started so early, and in such an unusual part of the country. But one clue might be a new variant that evolved a mutation, which appears to make it better at evading existing immunity, especially among teenagers.

    What's next: Experts suggest scheduling your flu shot.

    Fall has only just begun, but it's already time to start thinking about the quintessential winter bug: the flu.

    The annual flu season usually starts in October or November. But this year, it looks like the flu started to pick up in early September.

    "There are enough signs pointing in the same direction to make me think, 'OK, yes. This is the start of flu season,'" says Caitlin Rivers, an epidemiologist at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.

    The percentage of people testing positive for the flu in the West has been rising steadily since around the beginning of September, she says. And the number of people showing up in emergency departments because of the flu has also been rising for weeks, she adds.


    "It's very uncommon to see flu activity rising this early. It's activity that we might normally see more like November or December," she says.

    The timing of the flu season isn't the only thing that's odd. It's also unusual that flu activity seems to have started in Western states, such as California, Washington, Hawaii and Alaska.

    "It typically starts in the South and then expands from there," Rivers says. "So two uncommon developments there."

    Rivers stresses that the amount of flu activity is still very low in most parts of the country. But that's starting to change as the flu picks up nationwide.

    It's unclear why flu activity would have started so early, and in such an unusual part of the country. But one clue might be a new variant that evolved a mutation, which appears to make it better at evading existing immunity, especially among teenagers.

    "That's our best argument for what's going on right now in terms of this early flu season," says Dr. Alex Greninger, a virologist who heads infectious disease diagnostics at the University of Washington. Doctors there are seeing as much flu right now as they usually would around Christmas, and the mutated variant appears to be common, he says.

    So Greninger, Rivers and others are urging people to think about getting their flu shot earlier than usual.

    "It's crucial that people get an influenza vaccine," says Scott Hensley, a virologist at the University of Pennsylvania. "And this might be a year that people might want to get a vaccine early."

    But the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention hasn't been promoting flu shots as it usually does. Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who oversees the CDC, is a long-time vaccine skeptic.

    "It is disappointing that CDC is quiet given that flu kills of hundreds of kids a year and can result in tens of thousands of hospitalizations and tens of thousands of deaths," says Dr. Demetre Daskalakis, who resigned last year as the director of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to protest what he called political interference at the agency.

    The CDC declined to make an official available to NPR for this story. In a statement, a CDC spokesperson said, "CDC is developing a communications strategy to provide clear, accessible information about influenza vaccination and other critical steps people can take to protect themselves during respiratory virus season. This includes information about the benefits and risks of vaccination to support informed decision-making."
    Copyright 2026 NPR

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  • Actor-comedian shares rare photos from his life
    A photo of a man sitting at a dinner table, covering his face with one hand
    Photos from Jeff Garlin's debut photography book "Best Seat in the House: Moments No One Asked Me To Capture...But I Did Anyway"

    Topline:

    Actor-comedian Jeff Garlin has a knack for capturing moments in his life. His new photography book, Best Seat in the House: Moments No One Asked Me to Capture...But I Did Anyway, compiles some of his personal favorite photos of colleagues and friends. Garlin joined AirTalk, LAist 89.3's daily news show, to discuss it.

    Listen: to hear Garlin talk about playing Jeff Greene in Curb Your Enthusiasm, personal stories about his relationship with some of the biggest stars in comedy, mental health struggles and his feelings on analog and digital cameras.

    Check it out: Garlin has two book signing events in Los Angeles next month. He'll be at Book Soup in West Hollywood on Nov. 2 at 7 p.m. and at the Leica Gallery, also in West Hollywood, on Nov. 15. You can find more info on his book tour on his website.

  • Some call it a 'political stunt'

    Topline:

    The Trump administration last week only sent $500 checks to people who live in one of the 30 states that use Healthcare.gov for their insurance marketplace. They include people, like Allen, who were likely to be hard hit when Congress failed to extend the extra financial help put in place under President Joe Biden. The $90 checks that will be sent to Medicare beneficiaries are only going to certain people enrolled in Medicare Part B. People in Medicare Advantage plans, which are managed by insurance companies, will not get checks.

    Why now: The checks are hitting people's mailboxes just a few weeks before the midterm elections. The text of a letter sent along with the money touts the Trump administration's efforts on health policy and criticizes the Biden administration. "This reads like electioneering," says Kathleen Clark, a professor of legal and governmental ethics at Washington University Law School in St. Louis, Mo. "This reads as though it's intended to influence votes. That is prohibited by law."

    What officials said: The White House did not respond directly to NPR's questions about electioneering, whether the action is a violation of the Hatch Act or if it is a "political stunt," as Allen put it. "This is an out-of-touch criticism," Trump administration spokeswoman Allison Schuster wrote in an email. "Americans were overcharged for the operation of the Obamacare exchange, and President Trump returned their hard-earned money. This President will never stop enabling Americans to take control of their health by implementing policies that put money back in their pockets."

    Ellen Allen has mixed feelings about the check from the U.S. Treasury and letter from President Donald Trump that arrived at her house near Charleston, West Virginia, on Monday.

    "I just can't believe it; I mean, that's crazy," says Allen, who's the executive director of a small nonprofit called West Virginians for Affordable Health Care. She says, in her opinion, sending out these checks is a "political stunt."

    NPR first spoke to Ellen Allen in the summer of 2025. She was 63 years old at the time and knew she needed coverage from Healthcare.gov even as generous federal subsidies for her premiums were ending. She has a serious eye condition and needs expensive drops to preserve her vision. She advocated for the Republican-controlled Congress to extend the subsidies. It didn't. She ended up using retirement savings to pay $1,967 every month for her premiums from January through August 2026.

    Then her birthday came; she turned 65 and was eligible for Medicare. "I was ready at midnight — the first day I could apply, I did," she laughs.

    A second check on the way?

    Allen chose traditional Medicare, which means she could soon be getting another check from the U.S. Treasury. Last week, President Trump announced that $90 checks will be sent to 20 million people enrolled in Medicare.

    "The $90 is — I mean, that's just nothing," Allen says. In her work, she talks to people about healthcare costs all over West Virginia. "People aren't going to be fooled by this," she predicts. "People are hurting. People are feeling the cost of healthcare all year long."

    "If they wanted to do something meaningful, they would work on affordable healthcare instead of just sending out checks every now and then," Allen says.

    Both checks are directed to select groups. The $500 checks mailed by the Trump administration last week were only sent to people who live in one of the 30 states that use Healthcare.gov for their insurance marketplace. They also make more than $64,000 annually for an individual, which is too much money to qualify for subsidies. These are people, like Allen, who were likely to be hard hit when Congress failed to extend the extra financial help put in place under President Joe Biden.

    The $90 checks that will be sent to Medicare beneficiaries are only going to certain people enrolled in Medicare Part B. People in Medicare Advantage plans, which are managed by insurance companies, will not get checks.

    Can Trump do that?

    The checks are hitting people's mailboxes just a few weeks before the midterm elections. The text of a letter sent along with the money touts the Trump administration's efforts on health policy and criticizes the Biden administration.

    "This reads like electioneering," says Kathleen Clark, a professor of legal and governmental ethics at Washington University Law School in St. Louis, Mo. "This reads as though it's intended to influence votes. That is prohibited by law."

    Specifically, it would violate the Hatch Act, "the statute that prohibits using federal power and money to influence partisan political elections," she explains. It may also be a use of funds that's unauthorized by Congress.

    The money for Healthcare.gov enrollees is from fees insurance companies paid to participate in the marketplace, and the money for Medicare beneficiaries is from a general improvement fund. Neither of these funds has been used for direct payments to enrollees before.

    "It looks like a pretty desperate effort to, in essence, bribe the recipients of this letter to vote in gratitude to Trump in the upcoming midterm elections," she adds.

    An empowered executive branch

    The checks and letters are arriving in people's mailboxes, whether they're legal or not. Clark notes the Supreme Court has enabled Trump's illegal actions many times in the past. "So, of course, he feels empowered to go ahead and do this," she says.

    The White House did not respond directly to NPR's questions about electioneering, whether the action is a violation of the Hatch Act or if it is a "political stunt," as Allen put it.

    "This is an out-of-touch criticism," Trump administration spokeswoman Allison Schuster wrote in an email. "Americans were overcharged for the operation of the Obamacare exchange, and President Trump returned their hard-earned money. This President will never stop enabling Americans to take control of their health by implementing policies that put money back in their pockets."

    'Half a tank of gas'

    Some Republicans in recent years have advocated for giving more money directly to people rather than to health insurance companies, although the party has yet to settle on a particular approach.

    In any case, sending these checks is unrelated to that effort, says Joseph Antos, senior fellow emeritus at the conservative think tank American Enterprise Institute. There's nothing that requires people to use this money for their health.

    "From the perspective of the average senior citizen, when they get a $90 check, it's money," he adds, referencing the forthcoming checks for Medicare beneficiaries. "You can go out to McDonald's and buy probably two hamburgers and a shake for $90 [and] maybe buy a half a tank of gas."

    A widening trust gap, poll says 

    A few weeks from the midterm elections, voters say they are struggling with health costs and want candidates to address them, according to a poll released Tuesday by the nonprofit health research organization KFF.

    "The cost of healthcare is what's going to be front of mind as they're casting their votes in November," says Ashley Kirzinger, director of survey methodology for KFF. "And what we are seeing is that the Democratic Party has the advantage overall among all voters on which party voters trust to handle healthcare, but they also have the advantage among independent voters, and that's a really important voting bloc for midterm elections."

    She says there is "a widening gap" between the Democratic Party and Republicans when it comes to which party voters trust to handle health costs. "It was just a 10-point margin back in April, and now we're seeing it to be a 20-point margin," she says. The poll found 22% of voters trust Republicans on the issue, compared to 42% who trust Democrats.

    Where's the credit for GOP candidates?

    Antos, of AEI, calls the Trump administration's decision to send out these checks "inexplicable." He describes the move as politically strange, since a Republican administration that disparages Obamacare is investing more money into it, and "unreasonable from a fiscal standpoint," because of the growing national debt.

    He also notes that most Americans won't be getting these checks. "How about the average, lower-income worker who has employer coverage?" he asks. "They're not getting anything. Why is that? Is that fair?"

    He is doubtful the move will have a political benefit for Republican candidates. "For one thing, Trump is not saying that your local congressman did this for you, Trump is saying he did it for you," Antos says. "I don't get it, and I don't see any advantage to anybody, including Donald Trump."

    Despite her mixed feelings, Ellen Allen of West Virginians for Affordable Health Care is planning to deposit the $500 check she just received. "I'm not going to send it back," she says. "I'm going to put it in my health savings account and keep working towards healthcare for all."

    Copyright 2026 NPR

  • Coastal trail to reopen this week after repairs
    A passing train along the coastline.
    A popular section of the San Clemente beach trail will reopen to the public this week.

    Topline:

    A popular section of San Clemente's beach trail will reopen to the public on Friday after transit crews completed a major project to protect a coastal rail line from landslides and falling debris. Portions of the trail have been closed over the last two years.

    Background: The Orange County Transportation Authority is completing a $93 million project at Mariposa Point in San Clemente that includes a nearly 1,400-foot catchment wall to protect the battered railroad tracks from falling rocks and other debris.

    Officials said: “This project is another example of OCTA delivering our commitment to protect this vital rail connection while also returning a popular recreational amenity to the community,” OCTA Chair Jamey M. Federico said in a statement.

    More on the troubled rail: The project at Mariposa Point is part of OCTA’s greater efforts to protect a portion of the rail that is part of the Los Angeles-San Diego-San Luis Obispo rail corridor. Erosion and landslides along the coastal rail have caused several disruptions since 2021.

    What about El Niño? The trail reopens as the region braces for record-high surf and heavy rains. Other coastal Orange County cities such as Laguna Beach and San Clemente have issued local emergency proclamations because of coastal erosion this year.

    Dig deeper: Train disruptions in San Clemente raise questions of the future of coastal rail