The Brief

You're about to walk your dog, but the sky looks ominous. You pull out your phone, open your favorite weather app, and see that it's about to pour. You wait for the rain to pass.

Or maybe you planned a summer vacation at the beach. A week before you're supposed to leave, you hear a weather alert on the radio in your car. There's a hurricane headed toward the coast. You have plenty of time to make new plans — and spend your vacation out of harm's way.

Millions of Americans rely on weather forecasts every day. And accurate weather forecasts have never been easier to access. Hourly outlooks and severe weather warnings are available on smartphone apps and weather websites, TV and radio broadcasts and in newspapers.

But how are these forecasts made? Where does the underlying information come from?

We break it down, and explain how some of that weather information might be interrupted this year.

Weather forecast Step 1: Make lots of measurements

Basic measurements about the weather are the fuel for accurate forecasts. That includes information about how fast and in what direction the wind is blowing, where it is raining or snowing and how much precipitation is falling, what the barometric pressure is and whether there are clouds.

And accurate weather forecasts require data from all over the world, says Alex Lamers, Forecast Operations Branch chief for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Weather Prediction Center. "Weather happens in the atmosphere, and the atmosphere is connected globally. It doesn't happen in isolation over one specific location," he explains.

One of the most powerful ways to collect global data about the weather is through satellites and Doppler radar towers.

A satellite image of an atmospheric river moving in on Northern California and the Pacific Northwest in November 2024. Satellites operated by NOAA and NASA provide crucial, round-the-clock weather data for the United States.

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Satellites offer big-picture information. For example, weather satellites can track hurricanes as they move across the ocean, and wildfire smoke as it spreads across large swaths of land. Weather satellites also measure lightning activity, cloud cover, the temperature of the ocean surface and humidity in the atmosphere.

The U.S. government, through NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), operates multiple weather satellites and makes all the data they collect available to the public for free. Private weather forecasting companies, like the ones that operate weather websites and smartphone weather apps, use that data to inform their weather forecasts.

"Whatever weather app you might have on your phone, the view of clouds and precipitation from Doppler radar, that's probably NOAA data," Lamers says.

A NOAA weather satellite known as GOES-17 is prepared for launch in 2018. The satellite continuously measures weather conditions for an area that includes the West Coast of the United States.

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The National Weather Service also operates more than 150 Doppler radar towers across the country and shares the data with the public for free. Like satellites, Doppler radar collects big-picture information about rain, snow, sleet and hail, wind speed and direction and the clouds associated with thunderstorms. It can also detect debris in the air from tornadoes, which is very helpful for tracking where a tornado is and where it's going.

Having continuous information from radar and satellites is crucial during storms, including severe thunderstorms, tornado outbreaks and atmospheric rivers, Lamers explains. "That's really important for us to monitor storms as they develop," he says, "[to] be able to monitor the current state of the storm, where the most intense parts are, and be able to monitor that around the clock."

In an open letter in May, all five living former weather service directors expressed concern that those radar installations could be impacted by the Trump administration's federal hiring freeze and budget cuts, because radar instruments require maintenance by highly skilled technicians and there are many vacant positions.

The proposed White House budget would slash funding for NOAA by about a third and virtually eliminate weather research, ocean observations and work on new satellites.

A truck-mounted radar instrument called the Doppler On Wheels near Amanda Park, Wash. Scientists at NASA and the University of Washington used the radar instrument to validate satellite measurements of rain and snow. Permanent Doppler radar installations across the country, operated by NOAA, provide crucial real-time measurements about precipitation, tornado debris and hail.

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Many of those measurements happen at automated weather stations. NOAA runs about 900 weather stations all over the country. You might have seen one at an airport or next to a government building. One of the most obvious instruments is a rotating wheel with little cups on the end that measures wind speed.

Ocean information is also important because a lot of dangerous weather systems, including hurricanes and atmospheric rivers, form over the ocean before they affect the U.S.

But operating weather-monitoring instruments in the ocean takes a lot of work, because the conditions on the open sea are so harsh. The federal government maintains about 200 ocean buoys, as well as gliders and other instruments that can measure what's happening below the surface of the ocean. Research ships, military vessels and some cargo ships also contribute weather data for the public.

"Obviously we cannot cover the entire globe, the entire surface of the Earth, with all these instruments, so we have to be smart," says Vijay Tallapragada, a weather modeling expert for NOAA's Environmental Modeling Center. For example, weather sensors are strategically located in parts of the ocean where severe weather is more likely to form.

A NOAA ocean buoy is deployed in the Pacific Ocean in 2022. Ocean buoys measure wind, water temperature and other conditions on the open ocean. Because many weather systems form over the water, such data is important for accurate weather forecasts for the U.S.

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The last, and arguably most crucial, piece of the puzzle is information about the atmosphere. Every day, employees at the National Weather Service launch weather balloons with sensors attached to them. Until recently, that was happening at least twice a day at 90 locations across the country, and more often in places that were expecting severe weather such as tornadoes.

But multiple National Weather Service offices have cut back on balloon launches this spring because of staffing shortages. The Trump administration has moved to lay off hundreds of weather workers and left hundreds of other critical forecasting positions vacant after workers retired.

The weather service addressed such disruptions in a written statement. "The National Weather Service is adjusting some services due to temporary staffing changes at our local forecast offices throughout the country in order to best meet the needs of the public, our partners and stakeholders in each office's local area," the statement says. "These adjustments are also temporary and we will continue to fulfill our core mission of providing life-saving forecasts, warnings, and decision support services."

Tallapragada says balloon data, and other aerial measurements from planes, are the single most impactful source of data for weather forecasting computer models. In addition to providing real-time information about what's happening in the atmosphere, forecasters rely on balloon measurements to calibrate satellite data. So, without balloon measurements, satellite measurements are less useful.

"We definitely know that aircraft measurements and balloon data have the largest impact on the forecasts," Tallapragada explains.

A National Weather Service weather balloon launches in Bismarck, N.D., in June 2017. Weather balloons go up more than 5 miles into the atmosphere and transmit measurements back to the ground continuously as they fly.

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Weather forecast Step 2: Put all the data into a weather supercomputer

A weather forecast is basically the solution to a really complicated math problem. Supercomputers can solve that problem. They take all the information about what's going on in the atmosphere and oceans and use it to predict and track weather that will happen in the coming weeks.

The supercomputers doing this task for the U.S. are run by NOAA.

Those computers run multiple weather models, tailored to different types of weather. For example, hurricane models to predict when and where hurricanes will hit land, and how damaging they will be when they arrive.

Developing and running the computer models is quite labor-intensive, Tallapragada explains. "Each of these models require continuous improvement and maintenance," he says.

The incoming weather information changes all the time. Instruments on buoys and planes are replaced or recalibrated. Old satellites are decommissioned and new ones are launched. Private companies and weather services for other nations agree to share data, or change which data they're providing. Every little change must be accounted for in the computer models.

"So we need people to process, understand, calibrate and characterize those datasets so they can be assembled and used in a meaningful way," Tallapragada says.

Robert Fraser surveys damage to a warehouse after a tornado passed through an industrial park in Jeffersontown, Ky., in April. The National Weather Service provides real-time warnings about tornadoes across the country, which show up on cellphones, weather apps and websites and play on the radio and broadcast television stations in affected areas.

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Weather forecast Step 3: Translate the forecast from computer-speak to human-speak

The supercomputer is great at math, but it's not great at communicating with humans. When it is done crunching the numbers, it spits out a forecast result that's still mostly math.

Human forecasters then have to interpret the result and translate it into an actual weather forecast. For example, a string of numbers and probabilities becomes a map showing how much rain is expected to fall over a certain area in the next three days, and what the temperature will be each hour.

That work is done by professional weather forecasters, including meteorologists at more than 100 National Weather Service offices around the country. Local National Weather Service offices provide free, detailed local forecasts every few hours.

Meteorologists at private companies, including those who work for TV, radio and newspaper outlets, also rely on public weather model information to inform their local weather forecasts.

And if there's severe weather headed your way, like a hurricane, heavy rainstorm or tornado, the local National Weather Service office will put out a warning. That warning automatically shows up and makes an alarm sound on all the smartphones in the area. Warnings also play on the radio and on local television news stations, and they show up on weather apps and websites.

In their open letter this spring, former weather service directors warned that severe staffing shortages at local weather service offices could lead to less accurate and detailed forecasts this summer.

"Work is underway to restore services at local forecast offices around the country," according to a statement from the National Weather Service.

The summer and fall months are a busy time of year for severe weather in the U.S., from heat waves and hurricanes to heavy downpours and hailstorms. And climate change is causing dangerous weather to get more common.
Copyright 2025 NPR

The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences has announced several significant rule changes for the 99th Oscars, including AI protections for actors and writers as well as expanded eligibility for international films.

In a statement to NPR, the Academy on Saturday said the changes are in response to listening to the global filmmaking community and addressing barriers to entry in its eligibility process.

The Academy added that its rules and eligibility standards have always evolved alongside technologies such as sound, color, and CGI, and that AI is no different. Awards rules and guidelines are reviewed and refined each year.

A blow for Tilly Norwood 

Among the most noteworthy changes, the Academy now explicitly states that only roles, "demonstrably performed by humans with their consent" are eligible for Acting awards. In other words, AI creations like the much-hyped Tilly Norwood cannot hope to win a Best Actress Oscar anytime soon.

Particle6, the production company behind Norwood, did not immediately respond to NPR's request for comment on Saturday about its creations' ban from consideration. In March, Norwood commented, "Can't wait to go to the Oscars!" in an Instagram post announcing its newly released music video.

The Academy also requires screenplays to be "human-authored" and said it reserved the right to investigate the use of generative AI in any submission.

Meanwhile, qualifying flesh-and-blood human actors can now be nominated for multiple performances in the same category if those performances get enough votes to land in the top five. So, someone like Anne Hathaway, who has five major movies scheduled for release in 2026, could now theoretically sweep the nominations – though that outcome seems extremely unlikely.

"If an actor has an extremely prolific year, might we even see someone swallow up three of the five nominations?," wrote Deadline's awards columnist and chief film critic Pete Hammond about the changes. "Probably won't happen, but it's now possible."

Under previous rules, an actor could only receive one nomination per category. If they had two high-ranking performances in Best Actor, for example, only the one with the most votes would move forward.

International films prioritizes filmmakers over countries

While international films can still be the official selection of their countries, now they can qualify by winning the top prize at a major international festival such as the Palme d'Or at Cannes, the Golden Lion at Venice, or the World Cinema Grand Jury Prize at Sundance.

Historically, countries "owned" the nomination, and only one film per country was allowed. The new rules allow multiple films from the same country to compete if they are critically acclaimed, and it shifts the honor from a geopolitical entity to the filmmakers themselves.

Largely positive response

The changes have prompted a largely positive reaction from the film community on social media, such as on the popular The Shade Room entertainment and celebrity-focused Instagram feed, where commenters widely praised the "human-only" move to protect creative jobs.

The Academy's Awards Committee oversees the rules in tandem with branch executive committees, the International Feature Film Executive Committee and the Scientific and Technical Awards Executive Committee.

The rules are scheduled to go into effect next year, covering films released in 2026.

Copyright 2026 NPR

Los Angeles changes fast, and oftentimes that means some of the architectural relics of our shared past get swept up and paved over in all the "progress." (RIP Garden of Allah.)

But there are still places where you can find ruins that tell a tale, like a long-forgotten speakeasy reputedly for old Hollywood near La Crescenta.

The ruins are still there 

On a recent afternoon, author and local historian Mike Lawler led me just beyond the boundary of Crescenta Valley Park. Joggers like me might have seen an old, towering stone arch shrouded by bushes there — and wondered what lies beyond.

Turns out there was once a place called the Verdugo Lodge back there and Lawler has spent years excavating its history.

A car speeds away from the lodge onto New York Avenue. The stone archway that still stands can be seen in the background.

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“It was a very high-end speakeasy for a time,” Lawler, who also helps run the Historical Society of the Crescenta Valley, said. “An amazing thing. And all the ruins are still here, just like this arch.”

Lawler said we don’t know exactly when the lodge was built, but we do have some of the picture starting in the late 1920s. The place was set up kind of like a timeshare where people bought 10 x 10 foot ‘tent lots’ that gave them access to on-site amenities. There was a golf course, stables, trout stream, a swimming pool — and a lodge with gambling and alcohol.

“The Crescenta Valley in the teens and '20s was a hotbed of moonshine, prostitution, all that stuff," Lawler said. "It was a quiet little community. But in all these canyons up here, stuff was going on. Illegal stuff!”

We don’t have a full guest list, but Lawler said it’s likely at least a few Hollywood types had gone up to the lodge to circumvent Prohibition era laws.

In some ways, it was kind of like the original glamping. Lawler said patrons probably weren’t doing much sleeping, though.

“They might have been unconscious!” he said with a chuckle.

Lawler led me to a road that swooped around a meadow. We passed by a massive swimming pool nestled into the hillside.

Once known as the “Crystal Pool,” it’s now empty and fenced off, with pitch black locker rooms below.

The exterior of the locker rooms for the old Crystal Pool.

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We continued our journey up the hill and eventually arrived at a cascading stone stairway.

And at the top, the big show: overgrown with orange monkey flowers and goliath agaves lies the foundation of the old Verdugo Lodge, with lofty stone fireplaces the only guardians keeping the surrounding oak trees at bay.

Lawler takes out a floorplan that one of the former owners drew up for him.

“This is what it was laid out like on the inside. So a dancehall, and band stand on that side... And then upstairs was the gambling,” Lawler said.

Lawler had in hand a copy of a Los Angeles Times article from 1933 he found. The headline reads: “Revelers Flee in Lodge Raid.”

“The police that raided it were here at 3 o'clock in the morning. And there were still 500 people here. And they said it was the classiest joint they had ever raided... Anyway, people were diving out of windows and everything,” Lawler explained.

In a ruin like this, covered with moss and overgrowth, the imagination can run wild, too.

The archway that still stands outside of what's now known as Mountain Oaks.

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Lawler pointed out a questionable door jam below the old dancefloor that’s been cemented over.

“That is a door. So what is behind there? So there’s a room in there that got walled in for some reason,” he said.

What we do know is that, sometime after the raid, the tawdry Verdugo Lodge and the surrounding land were purchased and then renamed Mountain Oaks by the Kadletzes — an entrepreneurial family who had run everything from a Turkish bath to a mini golf course. Over the next few decades, the family would rent the place out to local groups for recreational retreats.

The future of Mountain Oaks 

After they sold it in the ‘60s, Lawler said Mountain Oaks faced a “nightmare” of development threats. Over the years, some of the subdivided "tent lots" had been combined and sold off, Lawler said. A dozen private homes now stand on these pieces of land, next to the ruins of the Verdugo Lodge.

A map showing the Mountain Oaks public property acquired by The Mountains Recreation and Conservation Authority (MRCA).

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Last year, with help from the City of Glendale, a U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development grant among other funding sources, the Mountains Recreation and Conservation Authority (MRCA) put up $6.1 million to acquire 33-acres of the land — not including the private lots where the homes stand — so the public can continue to roam the meadow and ruins.

Paul Edelman, MRCA's director of natural resources and planning, said his group will continue to manage the land, doing things like brush clearance, trash pickup and sign maintenance. And he said there are no current plans to remove the ruins or make any major changes to the property.

“If somebody comes up with a grand idea where they can find some funding for us to do something to enhance it, we’re always open to it,” Edelman said.

The purchase was good news for local preservationist Joanna Linkchorst.

“I grew up directly up the hill. But I always saw the sign that said ‘private property’ and didn’t really think about it until several years ago when I finally asked Mike. And he said, ‘Oh yeah, we got a resort speakeasy down the street,’” Linkchorst said standing among the oaks and overgrowth.

Linkchorst, who founded the group Friends of Rockhaven to preserve another nearby historic site, said it’s been amazing to see all of the decaying structures that were still hiding out at Mountain Oaks.

“There’s almost like these little ghosts in your head as you imagine what it was like when there was a beautiful wood floor and there was a second floor that people came jumping out of,” Linkchorst said.

Now, let’s check in to the Overlook Hotel.

That’s the fictional place Stanley Kubrick brought to life in his 1980 film The Shining, loosely based on Stephen King’s novel of the same name.

A local architect who hails from South Pasadena meticulously crafted a 3D model of the iconic space so Shining fans everywhere never have to check out.

‘I just couldn’t stop’ 

At his day job, architect Anthony Chieh mainly works on residential and boutique commercial spaces. But over the course of five months, he spent his nights meticulously recreating a virtual replica of the Overlook Hotel from the film that first scared him when he was 12.

Of course he started with the deeply haunted Room 237. That’s where Jack Torrance, played by Jack Nicholson, has a terrifying encounter with a ghostly woman.

Chieh's 3D rendering of Room 237

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“But once I started, I just couldn’t stop,” Chieh told LAist.

“I ended up modeling the Colorado Lounge, and then after that I was thinking maybe I should make the lobby and then arriving to the Gold Room, and then Grady’s bathroom.”

“It’s like a rabbit hole,” he said.

Users who download Chieh’s free 3D model can fly through all of those spaces, immersed in atmospheric sounds and music from the film.

“It’s interesting to dive into these kind of fictional environments and try to make sense of it,” Chieh said. “And the hope is people will get a different perspective once they’re in there.”

Kubrick’s take on the Overlook was famously inspired by real hotels like the Timberline Lodge in Oregon and the Ahwahnee in Yosemite. But the interiors you see in the film were created on sound stages in England.

“Real architecture, physical buildings, are built for people to live. And for movies, these are more meant to express the emotional aspect of things. It’s a psychological construct,” Chieh said.

In a recently published video essay on YouTube, Chieh dives deep into those psychological constructs and how, as he puts it, “Kubrick designed the Overlook Hotel not as a backdrop, but as the film's true villain.”

How spaces scare 

Chieh said during the monthslong process he was reminded of the power of architecture and design in the real world too – whether it’s an uncomfortably repetitive carpet design or a claustrophobic hallway.

“A physical construct can affect your emotion,” Chieh said.

“You can use it in a way to make people feel comfortable and you can also use it in a way to create fear.”

Chieh's 3D rendering of the Torrance's apartment in 'The Shining'

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What’s next for this architect moonlighting as a 3D modeler?

Chieh says he’s thinking about giving the spaceship from “2001: A Space Odyssey" the virtual treatment next. Or maybe turning to a local non-fictional space, like the Stahl House.

That is, of course, if he can ever escape the Overlook.