Support for LAist comes from
Audience-funded nonprofit news
Stay Connected
Audience-funded nonprofit news
Listen

The Brief

The most important stories for you to know today
  • The L.A. Report
    Listen 4:39
    LAUSD test scores improve, Café Tacvba on new album and LA, Def Leppard gets Hollywood star— Afternoon Edition
Jump to a story
  • Why the area is vulnerable to a fast-moving fire
    A person runs down hill away from flames with a cloth over their face.
    Eric Rector covers his face as he runs down a hill from flames racing through the Topanga Canyon area east of Malibu on Nov. 3, 1993, when the last major fire struck the area. A lot of vegetation has built up since then.

    Topline:

    With just a handful of narrow roads to evacuate thousands of residents, a fast-moving wildfire could be a nightmare scenario in Topanga Canyon.

    What we know: If it’s hot, dry and windy enough, a wildfire could potentially burn from the San Fernando Valley to the Pacific Ocean in four hours.

    Be prepared: If you’re in any fire prone area, pack a go bag, back your car into your driveway and make sure that you sign up for emergency messages, which is how the fire department will tell you what to do.

    If a red flag is announced: Consider leaving in advance before evacuation orders are given so that you don’t get stuck in traffic.

    Listen … to "The Big Burn" podcast from LAist Studios for more on wildfire risks and read more on keeping yourself safe.

    Topanga Canyon’s nightmare fire scenario begins in the middle of the night when everyone’s asleep at home.

    As blustery Santa Ana winds blow in from the east, a spark from a powerline or a passing car drops onto dry brush, starting a fire along the edge of the San Fernando Valley. As the flames grow, emergency services send out alerts, waking up thousands of residents throughout the area, telling some to shelter in place and others to leave.

    It’s an increasingly likely situation as our vegetation dries out and winds pick up, according to Drew Smith, fire behavior analyst with L.A. County Fire.

    “I would not be surprised,” Smith told me as we stood atop a helipad looking across the Transverse Ranges. “We are training for that.”

    With only a few arteries in and out of the canyon, Smith warns that a fast-moving wildfire could trap people on the canyon’s narrow roads, consuming everything in its path.

    In a worst-case scenario, the fire explodes into a devastating tragedy akin to the 2018 Camp Fire in Butte County, which destroyed the town of Paradise, trapping people trying to escape. At least 85 people were killed.

    “That’s one thing that keeps me up at night,” he said. “That worst-case scenario fire with our residents at home with limited options. It’s terrifying.”


    Preparing for the worst-case scenario

    Flames on a hilltop near the Eagle Rock fire road burn in Topanga Canyon State Park.
    A hilltop near the Eagle Rock fire road burns in Topanga Canyon State Park from the Palisades Fire on May 15, 2021 in Topanga, California.
    (
    Brian Feinzimer for LAist
    )

    It’s difficult to emphasize just how dangerous wind driven fires can be, especially where we were standing, near the top of Stunt Road, above Calabasas.

    Looking out across the Santa Monica Mountains, you can see small communities tucked in between dense chaparral that hasn’t burned in 30 plus years. Meaning, there’s a whole lot energy ready to fuel fires that roll through.

    If the Santa Ana winds are blowing, strong gusts can throw embers more than a mile ahead of a fire front, starting up spot fires all over.

    And because of the steep and rocky terrain, firefighting hand crews and bulldozers might struggle to dig fire lines meant to help contain the fire.

    Even with water drops from helicopters, containing a fire in nightmarish fall conditions can be all but impossible.

    “We know that fire history tells us on a high risk day, if we don’t suppress a fire within the first 10 minutes, it has a high probability of extending to the Pacific,” Smith said.

    A man standing in a blue formal outfit with green mountains in the background.
    Drew Smith is a fire behavior analyst with the Los Angeles County Fire Department.
    (
    Jacob Margolis
    /
    LAist
    )

    Smith estimates that it'd take one of these worst case scenario fires about four hours to sweep westward, from the San Fernando Valley to the Pacific Ocean, destroying communities along the way. Just as we saw during the Woolsey Fire in 2018, which made its way 17 miles across L.A. to Malibu in less than 24 hours, destroying 1,600 structures and killing killing three.

    "Don't get lured into a false sense of security because we've had a very passive fire season in Los Angeles County," said Smith. "Under the right conditions, we have a high potential for a devastating fire in the Santa Monica Mountains that hasn't seen fire frequency in 25 years."

    Topanga isn't the sole community at risk, the threat really applies to those throughout the Santa Monicas.

    A key staging area: 69 Bravo

    The helipad Smith and I were standing on is called 69 Bravo, and it’ll likely be one of the most important staging areas for firefighters when one of these fires does break out.

    It sits at about 2,600 feet above sea level, offering views of Newhall Pass on one side and the Pacific on the other. Below the pads are four 8,000 gallon water tanks that automatically refill, there to be drawn on by helicopters and fire trucks that are working to head off flames on their run to the ocean.

    You can see a live view here.

    How do you know if conditions are ripe for an extreme fire?

    It’s quite likely that many fires will be started – all by people – in the coming months. Though, each won’t become a Woolsey level event.

    So how do you know if you should be worried?

    Smith laid out some of the key conditions he looks for to figure out if a fire is going to move fast:

    • Temperatures above 80 degrees
    • Relative humidities in the single digits
    • Live plants with moisture levels at 80% or less (they’re usually around 55% by the fall)
    • Strong, gusty winds

    If you want to keep it simple, look out for red flag warnings from the National Weather Service, which indicate that extreme fire behavior is possible.

    Check out their Fire Weather Snooper, which presents data from weather stations that are entering or in red flag territory.

    On average we get eight red flag events per year, according to Smith, and on average each lasts three days.

    How you can prepare and respond

    Red flag warning prep

    An illustration of a home shows Zone 1 30 feet and Zone 2 stretching out to 100 feet.
    ()
    A flier explains the two zones that go into creating defensible space around a property: 30 feet of "lean, clean and green" and 30 to 100 feet of reduced fuel.
    ()

    If you live in a high risk area like Topanga Canyon and a red flag event is on its way:

    How to stay safe in high-risk areas
      • Back your car into your driveway and have your go bag in the car, ready to leave at a moment’s notice
      • If you get an emergency alert, follow the instructions given by emergency services. They’ll be coordinating evacuations, and will make efforts to keep roads from getting clogged
      • Consider leaving long before any fire breaks out. Smith said he knows people in Topanga that leave as soon as a red flag event starts

      Unsure if you live in a high risk area? Check out the state's Fire Severity Zone map for your county.

      Listen to our podcast

      How did wildfire risks get so bad? What can you do to stay safe? We have answers in our 2022 podcast, "The Big Burn," from LAist Studios.

      The Big Burn text above hills with homes on fire, four palm trees in the middle ground, and a person watching from afar in the foreground
      Listen 29:04
      Jacob and retired L.A. County Fire Captain Derek Bart answer your burning questions.

    Loading...