The Brief

Topanga Canyon’s nightmare fire scenario begins in the middle of the night when everyone’s asleep at home.

As blustery Santa Ana winds blow in from the east, a spark from a powerline or a passing car drops onto dry brush, starting a fire along the edge of the San Fernando Valley. As the flames grow, emergency services send out alerts, waking up thousands of residents throughout the area, telling some to shelter in place and others to leave.

It’s an increasingly likely situation as our vegetation dries out and winds pick up, according to Drew Smith, fire behavior analyst with L.A. County Fire.

“I would not be surprised,” Smith told me as we stood atop a helipad looking across the Transverse Ranges. “We are training for that.”

Emergency plans divide the area in and near Topanga Canyon into 10 evacuation zones.

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Courtesy Topanga Coalition for Emergency Preparedness

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With only a few arteries in and out of the canyon, Smith warns that a fast-moving wildfire could trap people on the canyon’s narrow roads, consuming everything in its path.

In a worst-case scenario, the fire explodes into a devastating tragedy akin to the 2018 Camp Fire in Butte County, which destroyed the town of Paradise, trapping people trying to escape. At least 85 people were killed.

“That’s one thing that keeps me up at night,” he said. “That worst-case scenario fire with our residents at home with limited options. It’s terrifying.”

Preparing for the worst-case scenario

A hilltop near the Eagle Rock fire road burns in Topanga Canyon State Park from the Palisades Fire on May 15, 2021 in Topanga, California.

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Brian Feinzimer for LAist

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It’s difficult to emphasize just how dangerous wind driven fires can be, especially where we were standing, near the top of Stunt Road, above Calabasas.

Looking out across the Santa Monica Mountains, you can see small communities tucked in between dense chaparral that hasn’t burned in 30 plus years. Meaning, there’s a whole lot energy ready to fuel fires that roll through.

If the Santa Ana winds are blowing, strong gusts can throw embers more than a mile ahead of a fire front, starting up spot fires all over.

And because of the steep and rocky terrain, firefighting hand crews and bulldozers might struggle to dig fire lines meant to help contain the fire.

Even with water drops from helicopters, containing a fire in nightmarish fall conditions can be all but impossible.

“We know that fire history tells us on a high risk day, if we don’t suppress a fire within the first 10 minutes, it has a high probability of extending to the Pacific,” Smith said.

Drew Smith is a fire behavior analyst with the Los Angeles County Fire Department.

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Jacob Margolis

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LAist

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Smith estimates that it'd take one of these worst case scenario fires about four hours to sweep westward, from the San Fernando Valley to the Pacific Ocean, destroying communities along the way. Just as we saw during the Woolsey Fire in 2018, which made its way 17 miles across L.A. to Malibu in less than 24 hours, destroying 1,600 structures and killing killing three.

"Don't get lured into a false sense of security because we've had a very passive fire season in Los Angeles County," said Smith. "Under the right conditions, we have a high potential for a devastating fire in the Santa Monica Mountains that hasn't seen fire frequency in 25 years."

Topanga isn't the sole community at risk, the threat really applies to those throughout the Santa Monicas.

A key staging area: 69 Bravo

The helipad Smith and I were standing on is called 69 Bravo, and it’ll likely be one of the most important staging areas for firefighters when one of these fires does break out.

It sits at about 2,600 feet above sea level, offering views of Newhall Pass on one side and the Pacific on the other. Below the pads are four 8,000 gallon water tanks that automatically refill, there to be drawn on by helicopters and fire trucks that are working to head off flames on their run to the ocean.

The 69 Bravo helipad sits at about 2,600 feet in the Santa Monica Mountains. It offers views of the Transverse Ranges, the San Fernando Valley and the Pacific Ocean. A critical spot for firefighters battling flames nearby.

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Jacob Margolis

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LAist

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The four, 8,000 gallon tanks at 69 Bravo have open tops so that firetrucks and helicopters can draw directly from them. They automatically refill.

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Jacob Margolis

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LAist

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You can see a live view here.

How do you know if conditions are ripe for an extreme fire?

It’s quite likely that many fires will be started – all by people – in the coming months. Though, each won’t become a Woolsey level event.

So how do you know if you should be worried?

Smith laid out some of the key conditions he looks for to figure out if a fire is going to move fast:

• Temperatures above 80 degrees
• Relative humidities in the single digits
• Live plants with moisture levels at 80% or less (they’re usually around 55% by the fall)
• Strong, gusty winds

If you want to keep it simple, look out for red flag warnings from the National Weather Service, which indicate that extreme fire behavior is possible.

Check out their Fire Weather Snooper, which presents data from weather stations that are entering or in red flag territory.

On average we get eight red flag events per year, according to Smith, and on average each lasts three days.

How you can prepare and respond

If you live in a high risk area like Topanga Canyon and a red flag event is on its way:

Unsure if you live in a high risk area? Check out the state's Fire Severity Zone map for your county.

Listen to our podcast

How did wildfire risks get so bad? What can you do to stay safe? We have answers in our 2022 podcast, "The Big Burn," from LAist Studios.

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Jacob and retired L.A. County Fire Captain Derek Bart answer your burning questions.

The Big Burn: The Advice Episode

Jacob and retired L.A. County Fire Captain Derek Bart answer your burning questions.

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Take accountability and move forward.

Those were the two points Los Angeles Fire Chief Jaime Moore hit repeatedly when speaking with LAist’s Larry Mantle this week.

On taking accountability, Moore said hazardous conditions and decisions made before the Palisades Fire erupted a year ago meant “our firefighters never had a chance” to arrest the fire that killed 12 people and destroyed thousands of structures.

On moving forward, he emphasized that reform is already in the works.

“Things have changed since the Palisades Fire, and we're going to continue making big changes in the Los Angeles Fire Department,” said Moore, who was selected for the LAFD top job by Mayor Karen Bass in November.

Here are three takeaways from the interview, which aired on AirTalk on Tuesday.

1. Staffing decisions hampered fire response

The LAFD uses a so-called pre-deployment matrix to set firefighter staffing levels ahead of high-risk weather.

According to the department’s after-action report, however, staffing levels on the day the Palisades Fire began fell short of the LAFD standard for extreme weather conditions. The National Weather Service had warned of low humidity, high winds and dry vegetation, what it calls a “particularly dangerous situation.” It’s the highest level of alert the agency can give.

Despite the high risk, the LAFD report said the decision not to deploy more firefighters in advance was in part made to save money.

Moore said Monday that the department has updated its policies to increase staffing for especially hazardous conditions, but he said he doesn’t believe additional resources would have stopped a fire of the magnitude that leveled the Palisades.

To suppress that kind of fire, he said, the department would need to pre-deploy resources across the city’s vast geography — to places like Baldwin Hills, Franklin Canyon, the Hollywood Hills, the Palisades, Porter Ranch and Sunland-Tujunga.

Moore said the department has already made new policies to call for more resources when the Weather Service issues a “particularly dangerous situation” alert.

2. LAFD is mostly an urban firefighting department

Moore referenced a key finding of the after-action report regarding a lack of training in wildland firefighting, which contributed to confusion and struggles to effectively utilize resources during the fire.

Wildland fires pose a number of challenges that are different from what firefighters face in urban environments. Those include the need to coordinate a large number of resources over vast areas, all while dealing with fast-moving flames that can rapidly tear through dry plants and structures.

The department found in its report that fewer firefighters were trained in fighting these wildland fires in recent years and that “leaders struggled to comprehend their roles.”

Some leaders in the department had “limited or no experience in managing an incident of such complexity,” the report said. And some reverted to doing the work of lower positions, leaving high-level decision-making positions unfilled.

“What we're doing now is really furthering that training and reinforcing that education with our firefighters so that they could be better prepared,” Moore said on AirTalk.

3. Changes to the after-action report

Early versions of the after-action report differed from the version released to the public in October, a fact that was first reported by the Los Angeles Times. The Times also reported that Battalion Chief Kenneth Cook, who wrote the report, wouldn’t endorse the final version because of the changes.

Moore acknowledged to the L.A. Board of Fire Commissioners at a Jan. 6 meeting that the report had been watered down.

“It is now clear that multiple drafts were edited to soften language and reduce explicit criticism of department leadership in that final report,” Moore told the commissioners. “This editing occurred prior to my appointment as fire chief, and I can assure you that nothing of this sort will ever again happen while I am fire chief."

Some changes were small but telling. A section titled “Failures” later became “Primary Challenges.”

Moore told LAist that changes between versions “ made it easier for the public to understand,” but an LAist review found the edits weren’t all surface-level.

In the first version of the report, the department said the decision not to fully pre-deploy all available resources for the particularly dangerous wind event “did not align” with their guidelines for such extreme weather cases. The final version said that the initial response “lacked the appropriate resources,” removing the reference to department standards.

The department also removed some findings that had to do with communications.

One sentence from the initial version of the report said: “Most companies lacked a basic briefing, leader’s intent, communications plan, or updated fire information for more than 36 hours.” That language was removed from the final report.

LAist has asked the Fire Department for clarification about why these assertions were removed but did not receive a response before time of publication.

Olympic organizers announced Tuesday that registration to buy tickets will run through March 18, with sales beginning in April. LA28 CEO Reynold Hoover said that locals will get the first bite at the apple.

The registration period opens 7 a.m. Wednesday.

" Our host city communities here in Los Angeles and Oklahoma City will have the opportunity to be a part of a local presale," Hoover said outside the Coliseum while surrounded by Olympic athletes from Games past. "With our thanks and as part of our commitment to making sure that those who live and work around the games, where the games will take place, can be in the stands and cheer in 2028."

Olympic organizers also provided more details on ticket prices for the first time. One million tickets will sell for $28 a pop and around a third of tickets will be under $100, according to LA28 Chair Casey Wasserman.

That means the majority of tickets to the Olympic Games will run into triple digits. If the World Cup is any indication, some tickets could get astronomically pricey.

Interested fans can go to LA28.org to register. Those who are selected will get an email with a time slot to purchase tickets.

The L.A. County Board of Supervisors took a step toward banning ICE from unlawfully operating on county-owned property and to post signage designating those spaces as “ICE Free Zones.”

The board unanimously approved the motion at Tuesday’s meeting, directing staff to draft the policy.

The draft could include requirements for county employees to report to their supervisor if they see unauthorized immigration activity on county property.

The city of Los Angeles passed a similar order last July, which strengthened protocols that prohibit ICE from operating on city-owned property. The agenda staff report points to an “ICE Free Zone” ordinance passed by the city of Chicago in October.

Supervisors Lindsey Horvath and Hilda Solis co-authored the motion.

Horvath said the county will not allow its property to be used as “a staging ground for violence caused by the Trump administration."

Solis added that their action as a board could have a ripple effect on other city councils and local governments.

“Even though it's taken us this long to get here …I think it's really important for our communities to understand what we're saying is you don't have the right to come in and harass people without a federal warrant,” Solis said. “And if you use our property to stage, then you need to show us documentation as to why.

First Assistant U.S. Attorney Bill Essayli said in an X post that the county cannot exclude federal agents from public spaces.

"Anyone who attempts to impede our agents will be arrested and charged, including county employees," Essayli said in the post. "We have already charged more than 100 individuals for similar conduct."

Since June, ICE raids have ramped up across the nation, heavily targeting certain immigrant communities like those in Los Angeles.

The motion directs the draft to include language that prohibits all types of ICE operations on county land, including staging and mobilizing without a warrant.

The motion cites an incident on Oct. 8, when county officials say federal agents raided the Deane Dana Friendship Park and Nature Center in San Pedro, arresting three people and threatening to arrest staff.

The motion also requires that the county post 'Ice Free Zone' signage on all of its properties.

Sergio Perez, executive director of the Center of Human Rights and Constitutional Law, told LAist the policy is enforceable under Fourth Amendment case law.

“You have to make sure that when you post that signage … that means that you routinely, or semi-routinely, assess who's coming in to the property, so that you can control access,” Perez said. “But if ICE shows up with a warrant, with a subpoena, then all bets are off, and they can enter into the property and do what they need to do.”

Perez said the county has moved “incredibly” slow on this issue.

“It's embarrassing that the county is moving six months later, given how we've been facing violent, aggressive, invasive and illegal raids now for so long here in Southern California,” Perez said, adding that local governments have not been fast or creative enough in protecting immigrant and refugee communities.

The Coalition for Humane Immigrant Rights, one of the region’s largest immigrant advocacy groups, supports the motion.

"We do not want our county resources being used for federal immigration enforcement activities, which disrupt, uproot, and terrorize our communities,” Jeannette Zanipatin, policy director for CHIRLA, said in a statement. “It is important for all public spaces to be really safe for all residents.”

County staff have 30 days to draft a plan to implement the new policy.