The Brief

Topanga Canyon’s nightmare fire scenario begins in the middle of the night when everyone’s asleep at home.

As blustery Santa Ana winds blow in from the east, a spark from a powerline or a passing car drops onto dry brush, starting a fire along the edge of the San Fernando Valley. As the flames grow, emergency services send out alerts, waking up thousands of residents throughout the area, telling some to shelter in place and others to leave.

It’s an increasingly likely situation as our vegetation dries out and winds pick up, according to Drew Smith, fire behavior analyst with L.A. County Fire.

“I would not be surprised,” Smith told me as we stood atop a helipad looking across the Transverse Ranges. “We are training for that.”

Emergency plans divide the area in and near Topanga Canyon into 10 evacuation zones.

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Courtesy Topanga Coalition for Emergency Preparedness

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With only a few arteries in and out of the canyon, Smith warns that a fast-moving wildfire could trap people on the canyon’s narrow roads, consuming everything in its path.

In a worst-case scenario, the fire explodes into a devastating tragedy akin to the 2018 Camp Fire in Butte County, which destroyed the town of Paradise, trapping people trying to escape. At least 85 people were killed.

“That’s one thing that keeps me up at night,” he said. “That worst-case scenario fire with our residents at home with limited options. It’s terrifying.”

Preparing for the worst-case scenario

A hilltop near the Eagle Rock fire road burns in Topanga Canyon State Park from the Palisades Fire on May 15, 2021 in Topanga, California.

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Brian Feinzimer for LAist

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It’s difficult to emphasize just how dangerous wind driven fires can be, especially where we were standing, near the top of Stunt Road, above Calabasas.

Looking out across the Santa Monica Mountains, you can see small communities tucked in between dense chaparral that hasn’t burned in 30 plus years. Meaning, there’s a whole lot energy ready to fuel fires that roll through.

If the Santa Ana winds are blowing, strong gusts can throw embers more than a mile ahead of a fire front, starting up spot fires all over.

And because of the steep and rocky terrain, firefighting hand crews and bulldozers might struggle to dig fire lines meant to help contain the fire.

Even with water drops from helicopters, containing a fire in nightmarish fall conditions can be all but impossible.

“We know that fire history tells us on a high risk day, if we don’t suppress a fire within the first 10 minutes, it has a high probability of extending to the Pacific,” Smith said.

Drew Smith is a fire behavior analyst with the Los Angeles County Fire Department.

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Jacob Margolis

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LAist

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Smith estimates that it'd take one of these worst case scenario fires about four hours to sweep westward, from the San Fernando Valley to the Pacific Ocean, destroying communities along the way. Just as we saw during the Woolsey Fire in 2018, which made its way 17 miles across L.A. to Malibu in less than 24 hours, destroying 1,600 structures and killing killing three.

"Don't get lured into a false sense of security because we've had a very passive fire season in Los Angeles County," said Smith. "Under the right conditions, we have a high potential for a devastating fire in the Santa Monica Mountains that hasn't seen fire frequency in 25 years."

Topanga isn't the sole community at risk, the threat really applies to those throughout the Santa Monicas.

A key staging area: 69 Bravo

The helipad Smith and I were standing on is called 69 Bravo, and it’ll likely be one of the most important staging areas for firefighters when one of these fires does break out.

It sits at about 2,600 feet above sea level, offering views of Newhall Pass on one side and the Pacific on the other. Below the pads are four 8,000 gallon water tanks that automatically refill, there to be drawn on by helicopters and fire trucks that are working to head off flames on their run to the ocean.

The 69 Bravo helipad sits at about 2,600 feet in the Santa Monica Mountains. It offers views of the Transverse Ranges, the San Fernando Valley and the Pacific Ocean. A critical spot for firefighters battling flames nearby.

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Jacob Margolis

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The four, 8,000 gallon tanks at 69 Bravo have open tops so that firetrucks and helicopters can draw directly from them. They automatically refill.

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Jacob Margolis

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You can see a live view here.

How do you know if conditions are ripe for an extreme fire?

It’s quite likely that many fires will be started – all by people – in the coming months. Though, each won’t become a Woolsey level event.

So how do you know if you should be worried?

Smith laid out some of the key conditions he looks for to figure out if a fire is going to move fast:

• Temperatures above 80 degrees
• Relative humidities in the single digits
• Live plants with moisture levels at 80% or less (they’re usually around 55% by the fall)
• Strong, gusty winds

If you want to keep it simple, look out for red flag warnings from the National Weather Service, which indicate that extreme fire behavior is possible.

Check out their Fire Weather Snooper, which presents data from weather stations that are entering or in red flag territory.

On average we get eight red flag events per year, according to Smith, and on average each lasts three days.

How you can prepare and respond

If you live in a high risk area like Topanga Canyon and a red flag event is on its way:

Unsure if you live in a high risk area? Check out the state's Fire Severity Zone map for your county.

Listen to our podcast

How did wildfire risks get so bad? What can you do to stay safe? We have answers in our 2022 podcast, "The Big Burn," from LAist Studios.

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Jacob and retired L.A. County Fire Captain Derek Bart answer your burning questions.

The Big Burn: The Advice Episode

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Cleanup is just beginning for a contaminated industrial site in South Gate, according to U.S. Environmental Protection Agency officials who are leading the effort.

The small southeast L.A. city was built on industry — in the early 20th century it boomed with auto, chemical and other manufacturers.

That legacy also left it with three Superfund sites, areas designated by the federal government as highly contaminated with hazardous waste.

The three sites are all clustered on a large lot framed by Southern and Rayo avenues. A residential neighborhood is nearby.

“This site is less than 50 yards away from a home, so we want to make sure that we clean it to a point where we can feel confident,” said South Gate Mayor Joshua Barron.

South Gate is home to about 90,000 people, the majority of whom are Latino. The median household income is about $74,500 and the state has identified the city and surrounding communities to be disproportionately burdened by pollution and its health effects.

This site, dubbed the Southern Avenue Industrial Area, housed a screw manufacturing business for 30 years, then a carpet adhesive plant. Both businesses are now defunct and the site was designated by the federal government as a Superfund site in 2012.

The pollution at this property was compounded by pollution from companies next door.

One of the two adjacent Superfund sites was used by Cooper Drum Co., a steel drum recycling plant. A group of Cooper Drum’s former customers, including chemical manufacturers and oil companies, are paying for part of that cleanup. The other site, previously operated by an aircraft rivet and conveyor belt manufacturer, is still in the analysis and planning stages.

At the Southern Avenue site where the EPA broke ground Tuesday, analyses commissioned by the agency found widespread lead and other toxic contamination in the soil, as well as a plume of trichloroethylene, a carcinogen, in the groundwater.

Officials say the plume has not affected the deeper aquifer South Gate and other southeast L.A. cities rely on for drinking water.

In 1986, the city closed water wells contaminated by the neighboring Cooper Drum site.

EPA project manager Kelia Liang explains the cleanup effort in South Gate on Tuesday.

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Erin Stone

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“ The water is safe to drink,” said Mike Montgomery, superfund director for the EPA. “What we're trying to do is prevent it from becoming impacted.”

EPA officials estimate soil cleanup will take about two months. Groundwater cleanup planning will start in 2027 and could take a year or more. The whole effort is estimated to cost between $45 million and $60 million, primarily through federal dollars.

The summer heat may be sweltering at the moment in Southern California, but predictions about this winter’s El Niño show it could be the strongest on record.

So the LAist newsroom wants to know: What questions do you have? (You can submit below.)

We can tell you now that El Niño is a climate pattern that happens roughly every two to seven years, and is one of the most powerful drivers of the Earth’s weather.

During an El Niño event, the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean off the coast of South America warms to above normal temperatures. The warm ocean adds moisture and heat to the atmosphere, influencing atmospheric circulation, temperatures and precipitation on a massive scale.

El Niño typically results in mild weather in the northern United States and wetter conditions in the southern part of the country.

In Southern California, we could start to see the effects of El Niño in the late fall or early winter. Generally, those effects include significant rain and high sea levels and the consequences that come with them, such as flooding, mudslides and coastal erosion.

Forecasters say there is a more than 90% chance of a powerful El Niño event this year, and a 70% chance that it’s record-setting.

That said, uncertainty remains around how exactly this winter’s El Niño will play out here.

So as you gear up for an El Niño winter, ask us your questions and we’ll do our best to get answers in the months ahead.

The company behind the Garden Grove hazardous waste scare earlier this year is planning to resume full operations in late September, subject to an independently monitored, court-approved safety plan.

GKN Aerospace employs 500 people at its Garden Grove facility.

What happened?

GKN Aerospace said in a news release that it had permanently decommissioned the tank that set off the hazmat scare in May and forced some 50,000 nearby residents to evacuate.

Removal of the tank is pending review and approval from state regulatory agencies, according to an emailed response from Salma Elshakre, a spokesperson for the Orange County Health Care Agency, which is overseeing the cleanup.

All of the toxic chemical, methyl methacrylate (also known as MMA), has been removed from nearby tanks as well, Elshakre said.

What about the compensation fund?

This week, the company also announced a forthcoming $100 million compensation fund for affected residents and businesses. GKN expects to release details on how to apply in the coming months.

What's next?

At least 39 lawsuits have been filed against the company in conjunction with the hazmat incident, according to a GKN webpage set up to track the fallout. The company pledged to explain the legal effect of participating in the compensation fund before it is launched.

What's the community reaction?

Garden Grove Mayor Stephanie Klopfenstein said in a statement that the city “welcome[s] this progress and will continue to expect GKN to address the broader effects on our community.”

A coalition of community groups called GKN Out of Garden Grove Coalition wants the city to shut down the GKN plant completely. The coalition plans to release a report documenting the company’s alleged history of hazardous waste failures at a news conference Tuesday at 5:30 p.m. at 11300 Stanford Ave. in Garden Grove.

WASHINGTON (AP) — The Trump administration is preparing to revoke the business and tourism visas of up to 200,000 foreigners who have applied for or are currently seeking asylum status in the United States. If it happens, the move would be the largest single mass revocation of visas in U.S. history and would likely face legal challenges.

Unless challenged or revised, the State Department is expected to announce in the coming weeks the revocation of so-called B1 and B2 visas issued between 2016 and 2026 whose holders have sought asylum or are now seeking asylum, according to State Department documents obtained by The Associated Press and two U.S. officials. The action will be taken in coordination with the Department of Homeland Security.

“We are coordinating with DHS to identify and revoke the nonimmigrant visas of foreigners who have come to the United States claiming to be short-term visitors, but then file for asylum to stay here permanently,” said State Department spokesman Tommy Pigott.

He declined to comment on the number of visas that might be revoked, saying “as the process will be ongoing, the number of revocations remains dynamic and will be done on a rolling basis.”

The revocations would not necessarily result in their immediate deportation, the officials said. Most of those with asylum cases currently pending would be recategorized but would lose their status as business or tourism travelers, according to the officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity because the revocations are not final yet.

Since President Donald Trump took office for his second term last year, his administration has steadily ramped up restrictions on visa applicants — demanding more information about their social media histories, requiring the posting of expensive bonds for the processing of visas, and outright banning the issuance of visas to citizens of certain countries.

In a social media post on Monday, Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau called out people who he said try to use tourist and business visas to get into the United States and then apply for asylum.

“People in the US and all over the world are fed up with bogus asylum claims,” Landau wrote on X. “Asylum isn’t supposed to be a loophole to circumvent immigration law.” Landau cited the case of a Colombian citizen who came to the U.S. in 2015 on a tourist visa and then applied for asylum.

B1 visas are generally issued for business trips and B2 visas are generally issued for tourism, family visits or medical care. It was not immediately clear from the documents or the officials how many of these visa holders are seeking or have sought asylum in the United States and would be affected by the revocations.

Current applicants for B1 and B2 visas are asked to affirm that they will not apply for asylum in the United States and prove that they intend to return to their home countries.

In the past 18 months, the State Department has revoked about 175,000 visas for people who have been convicted or accused of crimes ranging from drunken driving to rape and robbery, as well as for people who have spoken out publicly against U.S. policies, particularly in the Middle East.

The administration has also moved to crack down on so-called birth tourism, a practice the administration claims is used by foreign pregnant women to come to the United States to give birth so that their child will benefit from birthright citizenship. Trump has tried several times to end birthright citizenship, but those challenges have been rejected by courts, including the Supreme Court.

The State Department documents obtained by the AP suggest screening of current B1 and B2 visa holders began after the State Department received information about asylum requests from the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services.