Hurricane Hilary off the coast of Mexico, as documented by the GOES-18 satellite on August 18, 2023.
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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
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Topline:
Hurricane Hilary is now a Category 3 storm with winds hear 115 mph, and it looks like it's headed straight for Southern California, according to forecasts from the National Hurricane Center.
Be smart and avoid driving Sunday night through Monday morning if you can. Treat this like you would an atmospheric river during the winter.
Why it matters: Heavy rainfall is likely to result in debris flows and flash floods. Desert communities out in places like the Antelope Valley could see flooded roads, especially at low water crossings.
The backstory: For the first time ever, the National Hurricane Center has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for areas across Southern California. The last time we were directly hit by a tropical storm was back in 1939, when one made landfall in Long Beach.
What's next: There'll be a chance of showers on Saturday night, but the storm is expected to hit Southern California on Sunday, with the most intense rain and wind striking at night and sticking around into Monday morning.
Go deeper: We have a FAQ on Hurricane Hilary here.
Hilary is officially a tropical storm, according to the National Weather Service. So no longer a hurricane, but it's forecast to pack a wallop still, with heavy rains and wind, bringing potential flooding and mudslides.
Hilary has weakened to a Tropical Strom and is expected to make it into SoCal this afternoon. Expect periods of heavy rain; areas of flooding especially in the mtns and deserts; and strong winds especially in San Diego Co, east Inland Empire, mtns, and deserts. Be safe!#CAwxpic.twitter.com/TNXEfzFgV4
A satellite view of the storm's path taken Sunday.
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Courtesy NOAA
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The rain has started to hit many areas in Southern California, with the most intense rain and wind striking at night and sticking around into Monday morning. Rainfall in the city of Los Angeles is expected to total about 1.5 to 3 inches, with winds from 20-30 mph.
Conditions are expected to be much worse in the valley and mountain regions. At a press conference Sunday morning, L.A. Fire Department Chief Kristin Crowley said those areas can expect 3 to 7 inches of rain and Santa Ana-like winds up to 40 mph, with gusts to 50 mph.
A state of emergency is in effect for much of Southern California.
All state beaches in Orange and San Diego counties are temporarily closed. Camping is canceled in affected areas, and some inland parks are closed due to flooding concerns.
The L.A. Unified School District will announce later in the day on Sunday whether schools will be open or closed on Monday.
Flash flood warnings and watches are in effect throughout the region.
Flash Flood Warning including Santa Clarita CA, Lancaster CA and Palmdale CA until 6:30 PM PDT pic.twitter.com/6mlkQ1Ht8e
Here’s an excerpt from our guide to understanding flood warnings:
Flood advisories are how the NWS begins to raise the alarm. The goal is to give people enough time to take action.
Flood watches are your indicators to get prepared to move.
Aflood warning is issued when a hazardous weather event is imminent or already happening. When one is issued for your area, you need to get to higher ground immediately.
A flash flood warning is issued when a flash flood is coming or in progress. Flash floods are sudden and violent floods that can start within minutes.
The storm was downgraded from a hurricane to a tropical storm by the time it reaches us, in part because colder waters off our coast deplete the energy needed to sustain a hurricane.
Our dramatic, mountainous topography will also help to break up the storm, according to Paul Iñiguez, meteorologist with the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes at the Scripps Institute for Oceanography.
“They’re large speed bumps in the air,” he said.
Rainfall totals could reach 6+ inches in our desert areas according to this forecast from August 18.
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National Hurricane Center
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The difference between a hurricane and a tropical storm is wind speed, and regardless of what Hilary is downgraded to, one thing's for certain: it's going to bring enough rain to threaten communities, particularly those in the mountains and deserts.
We could see flash floods across the southwestern U.S., particularly in desert areas due to Hurricane Hilary.
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National Hurricane Center
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Tropical storm and flood watches have been issued by the National Weather Service for counties across Southern California.
The Tropical Strom Watch has been expanded to include ALL of LOS ANGELES County, as well as mountains, valley and foothills of Ventura County. pic.twitter.com/zL6SX9vO50
Rainfall: Expect 2-4 inches across many metro areas, and potentially more than 6 inches in the mountains and deserts. Rainfall rates could hit 0.5 to 1 inches per hour, meaning debris flows and flash floods are very much a possibility.
Wind: Should be around 20-30 mph, with gusts up to 73 mph in some spots. That's strong enough to potentially cause power outages and downed trees. Comparable to a strong Santa Ana wind event.
Violent seas: South-facing beaches are particularly vulnerable and could see waves up to 10 feet high. There's also a high risk of rip currents. Boaters should seek safe harbor on Sunday and Monday due to dangerous conditions.
How emergency responders are preparing
State and federal officials from California Office of Emergency Services, Caltrans and other agencies provided updates on hurricane preparations on Saturday.
Their message for Southern Californians was clear: Stay off the roads during the peak hours of the storm between Sunday and Monday.
"If you must travel and you encounter water flowing across the roadways do not attempt to drive through it," said Tony Tavares, director of Caltrans, adding that the department may close roadways preemptively to ensure road safety.
Additional resources across the state have been summoned for support, including in emerency medical services and local sheltering operations.
And a number of military rescue vehicles are placed throughout the region.
"We also have other capabilities, soldiers, airmen who are standing by and will be prepared to respond as the need arises," said Colonel David Kauffman from the California Military Department.
On Saturday afternoon, the San Bernardino County Sheriff's office issued evacuation warnings for the communities of Oak Glen, Forest Falls, Mountain Home Village, Angelus Oaks, and Northeast Yucaipa.
S.B County Sheriff: Evac Warning for the communities of Oak Glen, Forest Falls, Mountain Home Village, Angelus Oaks, and NE Yucaipa for incoming storm system pic.twitter.com/qE9oup9GBF
— San Bernardino County Sheriff (@sbcountysheriff) August 19, 2023
As for the city of Los Angeles, it has issued an emergency alert and has activated its Emergency Operations Center, has a fully staffed fire department on standby and is expanding its 311 operating hours. The L.A. Department of Water and Power also has crews available to respond to power issues.
“Whether it be wildfires or earthquakes the city is prepared,” said Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass during a news conference on Friday afternoon.
The L.A. County Department of Public Works has been clearing debris basins and culverts, and fixing roads across unincorporated areas since last spring, when the last of the atmospheric rivers slammed into us. They have teams ready to deploy in case of incident, as do Orange and Ventura counties.
"We're preparing for the worst, but the forecast is not out of line with what we were dealing with this last winter," said Steven Frasher, public information officer with L.A. public works.
Both L.A. and Ventura county fire departments are preparing for swift water rescues.
The city of Avalon on Catalina Island is expected to be one of the hardest hit spots. As such, L.A. County has preemptively deployed an additional rescue boat and personnel to the island.
Some south and southeast facing beaches are being shored up in anticipation of a storm surge, including Seal Beach in Orange Count as it's particularly vulnerable. Long Beach, San Pedro, Point Mugu and Port Hueneme are as well.
What's the risk?
Heavy rainfall is likely to result in debris flows and flash floods. Desert communities out in places like the Antelope Valley could see flooded roads, especially at low water crossings.
Be smart and avoid driving Sunday night through Monday morning if you can. Treat this like you would a powerful atmospheric river.
For the first time ever, the National Hurricane Center has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for areas across Southern California. The last time we were directly hit by a tropical storm was back in 1939, when one made landfall in Long Beach, according to the National Weather Service in Oxnard.
While the track of this storm is unusual, the hurricane itself is not.
“So far this season has played out as expected,” said Jamie Rhome, deputy director of the National Hurricane Center.
Tropical cyclones regularly form off the coast of Southwest Mexico between May and November. While they usually track west out into the Pacific, they can head north toward Baja.
Sometimes they do indirectly impact Southern California. In September 2022, Hurricane Kay dropped more than 5 inches of rain on the area, causing flooding and damaging homes.
Cancellations
The Dodgers, Angels and Padres have all had their Sunday home games moved to Saturday, so they'll all be playing double headers.
Meanwhile, "CicLAvia—Koreatown meets Hollywood" has been canceled for Sunday. Organizers on Saturday announced that while the event "has always gone on rain or shine, the weather is just too unpredictable."
If you were planning on taking a trip out to the desert, you know that Joshua Tree National Park is closed to backpacking. And the Mojave National Preserve, which just saw its most destructive fire on record, is closed completely. It's unclear how this major storm is going to affect recovery efforts.
The Summer Sounds concert series in West Hollywood has been rescheduled.
The Interstellar Music Festival in San Pedro is canceled this weekend.
A number of Amtrak Pacific Surfliner trains between Los Angeles and San Diego are canceled Saturday night through Monday morning.
Downed tree, power line or flooded road?
Dial 911 if it's an emergency.
However, if you need to report a flooded road or a downed tree, you can call the following non-emergency numbers:
L.A. City: Dial 311 for a flooded road or downed tree. Call (800) DIAL-DWP if you see a downed power line.
As Hurricane Hilary approaches, it's important to have a safety plan in place. Advice from L.A. County Fire Department Chief Anthony Marrone:
Have an evacuation plan
Create an emergency supply kit
Have a backup battery for any essential medical equipment
Stay out of the ocean and floodwaters, and avoid moving water
Place sandbags around homes and apartments in areas prone to flooding
Never approach downed power lines
Watch out for falling trees and power lines
Boat operators: evaluate the storm forecast and impact on marinas and harbors
A detailed list of emergency kit items can be found at ready.lacounty.gov; there will be real-time emergency updates on the county’s emergency website, found on the county’s landing page: LA county.gov/emergency.
How we're reporting on this
Science and environment reporter Jacob Margolis is tracking the storm and adding updates. Climate emergency reporter Erin Stone is reporting on preparation efforts in Palm Springs. Correspondent Josie Huang, Weekend Edition host Julia Paskin, producer Daniel Martinez and other LAist staff members are reporting on city and county emergency plans.
This is a developing story. We fact check everything and rely only on information from credible sources (think fire, police, government officials and reporters on the ground). Sometimes, however, we make mistakes and/or initial reports turn out to be wrong. In all cases, we strive to bring you the most accurate information in real time and will update this story as new information becomes available.
