The Brief

The 2022-23 rainy season saved California from a brutal drought by delivering one of the wettest years on record. And it'd be great if we could keep the good times rolling with yet another major rain and snow year just like it this coming winter.

However, the odds of that happening aren't all that high, according to a recently published study in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, which says the event was about a 1 in 54-year occurrence. That means there was a roughly 2% chance of it happening in the current climate regime. It was so exceptional that the authors said that about 5% of observed sites saw a 1 in 320-year occurrence.

Rolling the dice

The study also says that as climate change progresses, record setting snow years will become less likely, even under a moderate emissions scenario.

"It's not that it couldn't happen again, but as we roll the dice each individual water year, those dice are getting stacked more and more against getting a big snow year, the more our emissions rise and climate warms," said Adrienne Marshall, lead author of the study and a computational hydrologist with the Colorado School of Mines.

As temperatures warm, we'll likely see more precipitation fall as rain rather than snow, jeopardizing a key store of water that's responsible for roughly 30% of California's needs. Landscapes, animals and agriculture will suffer too, as hotter temperatures melt snow earlier in the year, leaving them with less runoff through our hot and dry months. Early snowmelt could also lead to an increased risk of flooding.

"The hydroclimate of California and the western U. S. is certainly shifting towards a greater likelihood of pronounced hot, dry conditions, still punctuated by extreme wet conditions," said Noah Diffenbaugh, professor and senior fellow at Stanford University’s Doerr School of Sustainability, who was not involved with the study.

NOAA's seasonal precipitation outlook for the 2024-2025 rainy season will be updated the closer we get.

(

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

)

What about this year?

With all of the above said, it's still unclear what's going to happen during the next rainy season.

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center, there's an equal chance of above and below normal precipitation across California.

That may change if La Niña shows up, which is looking increasingly likely. The climate pattern often sees precipitation lean toward the drier side, however, 2022-23 was a La Niña year and look at what happened.

A slow leak from a chemical tank smeared an orange cloud across the sky of a Southern California neighborhood on Tuesday, but authorities said they quickly got it under control.

Los Angeles County Fire Capt. Aaron Katon said authorities responded to a business that makes cleaning products after receiving a call shortly before noon about the cloud. Police evacuated a nearby middle school as a precaution, Katon said.

They do not yet know what the chemical was, but all shelter-in-place orders have been lifted, he said. The regional air quality management district has deployed staff to the area to investigate, said Connie Villanueva, a spokesperson for the South Coast Air Quality Management District.

The company, Shepard Bros., could not immediately be reached for comment.

Three company employees reported minor respiratory irritation and declined further treatment, Katon said.

The leak occurred in the city of La Habra near a mix of residential neighborhoods and industrial warehouses about 10 miles (16 kilometers) north of Anaheim.

Keary Godinez, who works in a nearby restaurant, said she saw what appeared to be a dark yellow cloud spread across the sky. The 20-year-old said she watched students across the street board buses to evacuate, but police told her the eatery could remain open.

“It looked like pollen dust,” Godinez said, adding she didn’t detect a smell from the cloud. “It just kind of smeared in the sky and started going away.”

La Habra Mayor Jose Medrano had urged residents to shelter in place and said some streets were being evacuated.

Luis Gomez, who manages a nearby pickleball program, said earlier Tuesday he saw the cloud, called police and was told anyone within a mile radius of the location was under an evacuation order.

The Los Angeles Lakers will unveil a statue of former coach Phil Jackson outside their downtown arena next year.

The Lakers announced the plan Tuesday to honor Jackson, who led the Lakers to five championships and seven NBA Finals appearances during two stints totaling 11 seasons as their head coach.

The statue will be unveiled April 9 before the Lakers’ home game against Minnesota.

After his famed tenure leading Michael Jordan’s Chicago Bulls to six championships, Jackson joined the Lakers in 1999 and immediately began another era of major success for the 17-time NBA champion franchise.

His first three teams in Los Angeles won championships behind the dynamic duo of Kobe Bryant and Shaquille O’Neal, and the Lakers added two more titles in 2009 and 2010 led by Bryant and Pau Gasol. His Lakers also made the NBA Finals in 2004 and 2008.

Jackson set the Lakers franchise record for coaches with 610 victories while leading his teams to the playoffs in every year of his tenure, which ended in 2011.

“Phil Jackson defines championship basketball for a reason,” Lakers governor Jeanie Buss said in a statement. “His masterful approach to coaching brought out the best in some of the greatest athletes to ever play the game. After he accepted my dad’s invitation to join the Lakers, Phil’s unmatched creativity and commitment to excellence restored our championship legacy, bringing five titles and setting a standard of excellence for generations to come. It is a great joy to be able to mark that achievement with the statue he so richly deserves.”

Jackson will be the ninth person associated with the Lakers to be honored with a statue in Star Plaza outside their arena. He joins Magic Johnson, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Jerry West, Elgin Baylor, Bryant, O’Neal, broadcaster Chick Hearn and former coach Pat Riley, whose statue was unveiled earlier this year.

Jackson’s 11 championships as a head coach are the most in NBA history. The North Dakota native and former New York Knicks forward is a member of the Basketball Hall of Fame.