October 7, 2008
Two Polls Show Gay Marriage Ban Passing

Photo by Tom Andrews/LAist at Wedding Park in West Hollywood (more photos here)
Outraised by $10 million and with polls taking a turn, now showing Prop 8 winning, opponents of the initiative that seeks to eliminate gay marriage on the November ballot sent out a "critical" e-mail this afternoon saying that their "worst nightmares are coming true."
Today we learned of the massive $25.4 million our opponents have raised so far. They are using this war chest to broadcast lies: 24/7 and up and down the state of California.And the polls show the lies are working. We need your donation now.
Yesterday’s CBS 5¹ poll shows that:
"...likely California voters overall now favor passage of Proposition 8 by a five-point margin, 47 percent to 42 percent. Ironically, a CBS 5 poll eleven days prior found a five-point margin in favor of the measure's opponents."
People change their minds about Proposition 8 when they hear the lie that churches will lose their tax-free status if they won’t marry same-sex couples -- EVEN THOUGH THIS IS NOT TRUE!
So this is crunch time. With less than a month before the election, we must get on the air now to answer these lies and swing votes back to our side.
Brian Leubitz at Calitics, who believes the polls were done improperly, says being $10 million behind in fundraising is "very bad," and one of the reason for that is complacency: "The No on 8 campaign is saying that queer and queer-friendly communities are now expecting to win and are not working and contributing enough to see this thing through." This is one measure one cannot expect to win--it's a fight to the finish.



[ report this ]
This makes me really sad. My brother and his boyfriend are getting married on October 26 so this means that there's a real possibility that the happiest day of their lives will be null and voided?
[ report this ]
As far as I am aware, no decision has been made regarding gay couples married before November 4th and Prop 8 passes. I believe that is yet to be seen.
[ report this ]
People change their minds about Proposition 8 when they hear the lie that churches will lose their tax-free status if they won’t marry same-sex couples -- EVEN THOUGH THIS IS NOT TRUE!
Not yet anyway.
Can the No on Prop 8 people guarantee that churches will not be sued for discrimination? Because I'm telling you, that's the sticking point for a lot of voters.
[ report this ]
Ugly American, I can guarantee you that will not happen. All this law does is require THE STATE to issue marriage licenses to same sex couples. That is it. It says NOTHING about what a church has to do. If a church does not want to preside over the ceremony, that is perfectly fine. Having the state issue marriage licenses is divorced from the idea of the religious ceremony. You can go to your local city hall or county office and get married, no religious ceremony necessary. People need to recognize that marriage, from the state's perspective, is purely a CIVIL contract between two people.
Besides, why do people think that a gay couple would WANT a church to marry them when that church doesn't want anything to do with them?
Fear mongering at its best.
[ report this ]
The main concern is that churches and even individuals could be forced into going against their own theological understanding of marriage due to the threat of lawsuits under California's antidiscrimination laws.
Incidents such as this and this for instance, give cause for concern to religious-minded voters.
They want assurances that these kind of lawsuits will not threaten their established religious sacraments.
[ report this ]
Ugly American, stop trying to spread confusion and falsehoods. It's very deceitful.
The law has NEVER forced a church to recognize marriages it doesn't want. The Catholic church doesn't recognize second (heterosexual) marriages, and they aren't forced to recognize homosexual marriages of any kind.
Their established religious sacraments have always been protected by the First Amendment, and would remain so if Prop 8 fails. There is absolutely no contention about this and never has been.
[ report this ]
People are stupid if they don't realize there's a difference between civil and religious marriage. I believe that's why Obama/Biden say they aren't for gay marriage - marriage is a loaded word, so they support civil unions which is everything a marriage is except in name (I still disagree with that - it smacks of separate but equal anyway). Like a commentator above said, the Catholic Church has not been forced to recognize second marriages of divorced individuals. You can get married by a JotP and not have it recognized by a church, or get married in a church without a marriage license (in theory) and not have it be recognized by the state. The state recognizes marriage for it's own reasons, entirely separate from religious ones.
Unfortunately, the people who believe this are able to vote.
[ report this ]
I wouldn't trust a poll unless I knew how they were asking the questions, what part of town they were doing it in, and if they including the cell phone demographic. Many of the younger crowd no longer feel the need to have a land line and rely soley on their cell phones, also younger people also tend to be more liberal.
As for TUA's scare tactic articles that were linked. I could see a problem for the church. If they are making a profit and offering secular as well as religious weddings. I could see them losing their tax exempt status. Not for refusing the gay couple, but because what they are now engaged in is a comercial enterprise.
As for the photography couple, of course I think they have the right to refuse doing business with whom ever they dislike. But they should have to specify in their advertisments, business cards, etc., "No Gay Weddings".
As a tolerant heterosexual I would be very angry to find out after the fact that I had done business with intolerant, bible thumping, bigots.
[ report this ]
At least the nutjobs who come out to vote against gay marriage will not effect the fact that CA will go Obama all the way. In some states they are not so lucky and these bullshi*t propositions get thrown on the ballot regularly for the sole purpose of bringing bible beaters to the polls who, while their at it, vote for other bigots. These jackasses would rather have gays rights (and abortion) be legal even though they are against them in principle because if they were outlawed they couldn't use them as political wedge issues.
[ report this ]
How is asking valid questions, spreading confusion, falsehoods and employing scare tactics? Some are questioning why this prop is failing and I'm giving my opinion. Honestly, I’m beginning to think that LAist is nothing more than an echo chamber. The quicker you stop avoiding these issues and talk more openly and honestly about voter concerns, the better chance this Prop has of passing. You're not doing the No on Prop 8 people any favors by insulting and belittling 47% of California voters. Diversity and tolerance goes both ways. As for the Catholic Church/second marriage issue...divorced persons are not pointedly covered under California non-discrimination laws. Gay people are. Yes, the current law does not force churches to recognized gay marriage but after effects of discrimination suits is a reality that cannot be ignored.
[ report this ]
"Some are questioning why this prop is failing and I'm giving my opinion."
Yea, Right!
I'm starting to think that what you say about yourself in your profile is a lie.
The articles you link are all about law suits. There have always been discrimination law suits, there will always be discrimination law suits. Whether or not prop 8 passes will have little effect on the size and number of discrimination law suits. As far as this being a major factor in people voting yes on prop 8, that's a load of shit. You're the only person I've seen bring it up.
The "Yes on 8" commercials are busy spreading lies about same sex marriage costing churches their tax exemption, and little kids getting taught about SSM in school. No where have I seem them mention the discrimination law suit dealio.
That's all you.
Discrimination law suits against individuals for not doing business with some one would be hard win. Even with some thing like housing, it's very hard to prove. Everyone has the right to refuse some one's business.
I for one have refused to do business with some one for being an asshole. Guess what? I didn't get sued.
[ report this ]
I'm starting to think that what you say about yourself in your profile is a lie.
Why? ...because my views are not lock step with GLAAD?
Honestly jrb, you really should travel more outside your little exclusionary liberal bubble world.
[ report this ]
"Why? ...because my views are not lock step with GLAAD?"
This is the internet.
I could put in my profile that I am the King of Cucamonga, but if I started suggesting that Cucamongan citizens shouldn't be allowed equal rights because there might be a jump in Cucamongan discrimination lawsuits, I think others might have a hard time buying my claim.
[ report this ]
Oh and you views aren't even consistant with log cabin Republicans.
[ report this ]
That's because I am not a Log Cabin Republican. I am a conservative.
If you like, I'd be happy to post a video of me giving head to my girlfriend, while wearing my Good Conduct Medal and simultaneously writing a check out to Feminists For Life. Perhaps that would satisfy you.
I must say though, your blissful denial is quite entertaining.
Camille Paglia was right -- question the liberal establishment at your own peril.
[ report this ]
You don't have to prove anything to me TUA. After all, this is the internet, and I'm just another techno junkie who loves a good political debate.
I would like to ask a couple of burning questions that usually stump Log Cabin Repubs I have discussions with.
Maybe you can do better.
1.) Why would you align yourself politically with people who have trouble accepting you as a fellow human being, much less an equal one.
2.) Nature or nurture? In you opinion, is being gay or lesbian a choice or were you born that way?
[ report this ]
Gay marriage is currently legal in California, and no church has gotten sued because of it. If prop 8 fails, this trend will continue, because the state has never had the authority to compel churches to recognize marriages they don't want to.
To even suggest that Prop 8 will protect churces from lawsuits is dishonest.
Ugly American, you are no conservative. Conservatives abhor government intrusion in our private lives. That's why so many conservative papers (such as the OC Register) have endorsed a "no" vote on 8.
[ report this ]
Wow! jrb, since when did a person born with same-sex attraction lose their choice to act?
jrb and rdm24, so much talk about how churches will not be forced to marry same-sex couples. While it is true, none have been so coerced and you two may never think of doing so. Just because it hasn't happened doesn't mean it won't if Prop 8 fails. Just look to other jurisdictions where marriage has been re-defined to include sam-sex couples. When you look at Canada, Massachusetts, and the Netherlands, look also at the government intrusion. Look particulary at Cananda and the religious leaders who have been fined by the government for teaching the doctrine of their church which is against same-sex marriage and the PRACTICE of homosexuality. How's that for less government intrusion. Californians are possibly the most highly regulated of all the states and it will only increase if Prop 8 fails.
So let's just let all of our homosexual brothers and sisters keep all the rights they have under the Domestic Partnership Act (which are the same as heterosexual married couples) without allowing the title of married. After all that's the only "right" they stand to lose. A "right" that four judges fashioned according to their personal idealogy. That should scare homo/heterosexuals, liberals and conservatives, blacks and whites, religious and non religous more than anything.
I challenge you to read In re Marriages, the Supreme Court decision that redefined marriage and see if it sits well. Pay particular attention to the dissent, who is in favor of homosexual marriage.
Let's get educated and have an intellectual rather than an emotional debate.
[ report this ]
mountainbay, I see nothing different now than when southern African Americans were asking for equal rights 50 years ago.
Some predicted the end of civilization as we knew it, and I guess for the bigots it was.
In the end equal rights won out and we are all better off for it.