A Republican stronghold in Southern California will remain red in Congress. Here’s what that means

Despite the state’s redistricting efforts, California’s District 40 will likely be represented by a Republican congressperson. As of Thursday morning, Ken Calvert is about 15 percentage points ahead of Young Kim and both appear to make the November ballot in the race to represent the newly redrawn region.

Last year, California voters allowed the state to use new congressional maps for this year’s elections in response to the congressional redistricting in Texas powered by Republicans. Kim represented the old version of District 40.

California’s 40th District was originally made up mostly of Orange County cities. In the new maps, the district covers more communities in the Inland Empire, including Murrieta, Lake Elsinore and Menifee.

What do the early results say about the region?

Mike Moodian, a Chapman University lecturer and public policy analyst, said District 40 was always an uphill battle for Democrats because of registration numbers.

“The powers that be that drew those lines basically figured that … they would concede that more or less to a Republican, so that they could allow for comfortable margins. They could allow Democrats to pick up some seats elsewhere in the state,” Moodian told the LAist.

Moodian said Calvert’s significant lead ahead of Kim could be because more than half the District is Calvert’s old district.

The 40th was redrawn as a “Republican voter sink,” Christian Grose, USC professor of political science, told the LAist.

“I think it's the only Republican district remaining in all Southern California,” Grose said. “So, in some ways, it's not that surprising that two long-term impressive incumbents are fighting each other in the general.”

The person who comes in first in the primaries typically advances, but not always, Grose added.

“Kim will presumably try to get some of the Democratic and independent voters who didn't vote for either one of them,” Grose said. She might be better positioned for that.”

Is this a loss for Democrats?

Not quite, Moodian said. The two Republicans will now have to spend a significant amount of money to beat each other in November, he added.

“Obviously, local Democrats and Democrats in District 40 are certainly not excited about the fact that two Republicans have advanced, but to me this is what the statewide Democrats had in mind when they redrew the lines,” Moodian said. “This allows them to attempt to pick up more seats, and at the same time basically eliminate one Republican congressmember by having these two face off against each other.”

What do the candidates say?

In a statement, Calvert said Tuesday night’s early results show "that voters want an effective and consistent conservative who has been with President Trump from Day One.”

Chris Pack, spokesperson for Young Kim, said in a statement, “Despite being outspent 10 to 1, we are confident that Congresswoman Kim will be advancing to the November election and that she’ll put an end to Ken Calvert’s 30-plus years of failing to deliver for the people of Southern California."

What’s next?

The two top candidates will likely face off in the November election. It could take days for results to finalize in California. Keep up to date with the Primary Election results here.