Prop to Legalize Marijuana Losing in Latest Poll

The same poll that said Jerry Brown has an eight point lead over Meg Whitman also says Prop 19, which would legalize marijuana, will lose. It found that 44% of likely voters are for it while 49% are against it, leaving 7% undecided.

"This is an 8-point drop in support since September (52% yes, 41% no, 7% undecided). Support has declined among Democrats (56% today, 63% September), dropped sharply among independents (40% today, 65% September), and remains low among Republicans (30% today, 32% September)," noted the poll authors. Support has also dropped for Latinos (42% today, 63% September).

A majority (52%) of likely voters say the outcome of Prop 19 is very important to them while 28% say it's somewhat important. Of those who are planning to to vote no, 62% say the outcome is very important while 40% of the yes-voters feel the same about the outcome.

The LA Times noted that much of the change in support appears to be a result of voters in Southern California. "In September, 56% of likely voters in Los Angeles County and 52% in other Southern California counties supported the measure," they said. "This month, those percentages slipped to 41% and 42%."

Much of the support for Prop 19 comes from Democrats and younger voters, two groups that have a weaker voting record, PPIC president Mark Baldassare told the LA Weekly. "Really the two groups firmest support are Democrats and younger voters," he added. "Even in those groups substantial, there's a substantial number saying they would vote no. We know the electorate is older rather than younger, and now you have the 35-and-older group saying they would oppose it."