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Prop to Legalize Marijuana Losing in Latest Poll

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The same poll that said Jerry Brown has an eight point lead over Meg Whitman also says Prop 19, which would legalize marijuana, will lose. It found that 44% of likely voters are for it while 49% are against it, leaving 7% undecided.

"This is an 8-point drop in support since September (52% yes, 41% no, 7% undecided). Support has declined among Democrats (56% today, 63% September), dropped sharply among independents (40% today, 65% September), and remains low among Republicans (30% today, 32% September)," noted the poll authors. Support has also dropped for Latinos (42% today, 63% September).

A majority (52%) of likely voters say the outcome of Prop 19 is very important to them while 28% say it's somewhat important. Of those who are planning to to vote no, 62% say the outcome is very important while 40% of the yes-voters feel the same about the outcome.

The LA Times noted that much of the change in support appears to be a result of voters in Southern California. "In September, 56% of likely voters in Los Angeles County and 52% in other Southern California counties supported the measure," they said. "This month, those percentages slipped to 41% and 42%."

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Much of the support for Prop 19 comes from Democrats and younger voters, two groups that have a weaker voting record, PPIC president Mark Baldassare told the LA Weekly. "Really the two groups firmest support are Democrats and younger voters," he added. "Even in those groups substantial, there's a substantial number saying they would vote no. We know the electorate is older rather than younger, and now you have the 35-and-older group saying they would oppose it."