Measure ER on track to pass as LA County ballot counting continues

Measure ER — a proposed half-percent local sales tax increase aimed at generating healthcare funds to offset massive federal cuts — is ahead in the vote and is on track to pass if the trend continues.

The votes are still being counted, but as of Monday, yes votes on Measure ER had squeaked ahead of the no votes — 50.35% to 49.65%.

The ballot measure requires a simple majority to pass.

Measure ER was able to narrow its deficit since initial Election Day results, as later mail ballots tended to skew toward Democratic voters, according to poll-watchers.

“If that trend continues, it's possible that ER could pass,” said Zev Yaroslavsky,  director of the Los Angeles Initiative at the UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs.

Measure ER was ahead by about 13,000 votes as of Monday. L.A. County has processed more than 2 million ballots, according to election officials who estimate about 150,000 are yet to be counted.

L.A. County voters have not rejected a sales tax measure in more than a decade.

“It’s been almost like any tax measure will pass," said Fernando Guerra, Loyola Marymount University political science professor. “I think it's likely to pass, barely, but it could go either way,” he added.

Prior to Election Day, Guerra said he figured L.A. County voters would have approved Measure ER by a margin of 5 percentage points or more.

"So I am a little taken aback,” he said. “It shows that there is something that's going on with a very progressive voter in L.A. about, ‘OK, maybe enough taxes.’”

Experts say affordability concerns may be eroding support even among L.A. County's traditionally tax-friendly voters.

“Number one, we're spent,” Guerra said. "Number two, we don't trust the general decision-making. Number three, when we've given you specific dollars for specific issues, you haven't done it.”

Measure ER would raise county sales tax from 9.75% to 10.25% for five years, generating an estimated $1 billion a year for the county’s general fund, proponents say. County supervisors approved a spending plan directing those dollars to offset cuts to Medi-Cal under the Trump administration's One Big Beautiful Bill.

But that plan is not legally binding — a detail that critics of Measure ER hammered throughout the campaign.

The Yes on ER campaign committee, called Restore Healthcare for Angelenos, was backed largely by nonprofit health clinics and led by St. John's Community Health, a nonprofit that operates a large network of health clinics in Southern California.

The campaign raised nearly $10 million to spread its message in TV ads that told voters, “Trump’s cuts are threatening hospitals and ERs,” and in mailers that urged them to raise the tax a “temporary half a penny to save healthcare access.”

“While we still do not know the final outcome of Measure ER, we have been encouraged as yes votes have been scoring high in every count since Wednesday,” Teresa Eilers, Yes on ER campaign manager said in a statement Monday.

The No on ER campaign committee, No Blank Checks LA County, was led by the L.A. County Taxpayers Association. It raised less than $10,000, according to L.A. County campaign finance filings. Aidan Chao, chairman of the taxpayers group, said that the fight continues, in this election and beyond.

“As we keep watching the vote count, one conclusion is clear: this will be razor thin, and it showed everyone that Angelenos will not let a tax increase cruise to victory as we did in years past,” Chao told LAist Monday.

Tax fatigue?

The No on ER campaign said narrow race reveals a rising anti-tax feeling among L.A. County voters.

“We knew there was an abnormal aversion to taxation right now, which is completely off from the precedent,” Chao told LAist. “Voters were frustrated with taxes in general. They were frustrated with the way counties spend the money.”

L.A. County residents already pay some of the highest sales tax rates in the country. The county’s base sales tax rate is 9.75%, while the cities of Lancaster and Palmdale have sales tax rates above 11%.

In 2017, about 69% of county voters approved Measure H, a temporary quarter-percent special sales tax to fund services for homeless people.

Then in 2024, a narrower 57% voted to double the homelessness sales tax and make it permanent though Measure A, which now generates an estimated $1 billion a year for L.A. County’s homeless services and affordable housing efforts.

Yaroslavsky, a former L.A. County supervisor, said L.A. County voters are feeling the pinch of inflation and cost of living increases. In a UCLA survey he oversees, the number of people concerned about taxes as part of their cost of living ticked up this year.

"The less you earn, the more painful it is," he said. “And that's why I think this is gonna be closer than the measures that were passed with 70%. This one is not gonna get much more than 51% or 52%, if it passes.”

The coalition against Measure ER included dozens of representatives from cities that argued another sales tax increase was the wrong answer to the county’s budget problems.

The tax measure’s most prominent opponent was Kathryn Barger. She was the sole L.A. County Supervisor to vote against putting the measure before voters, while the other four backed it.

Barger appeared in a video ad for the No on ER campaign urging voters to reject it. The ad was recorded on the supervisor’s personal time, her office told LAist.

“We all support quality healthcare, but Sacramento should step up before asking taxpayers to pay more,” Barger says in the video. “And despite what supporters claim, the money goes straight into the county’s general fund with no guarantee where it will end up.”

Supervisor Holly Mitchell and Measure ER backers at rally for supporters.

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Yes on ER

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Supervisor Holly Mitchell, who backed putting the bill on the primary ballot, has said a sales tax increase wasn’t ideal, but she was out of options.

“As the county government, we are required by statute to be the safety net level provider of last resort for healthcare services, and yet the federal government pulled the funding rug out from under us,” Mitchell told LAist.

Yaroslavsky said he understands why the County Supervisors put the measure on the ballot. L.A. County is looking to save crucial healthcare programs.

“This is not a transit program or bikeways — things you can live with or live without,” he said. “This is a matter of life and death.”

What’s next?

A spokesperson for the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association, a statewide anti-tax group, told LAist the organization is hopeful a movement against higher taxes is gaining momentum throughout California.

“It's clear from the election results in Los Angeles and statewide that voters are frustrated and even angry that the taxes they already pay are apparently disappearing, while every urgent need, from firefighting to hospitals, somehow can't be funded without more tax increases,” Susan Shelley, a Howard Jarvis spokesperson, told LAist.

Voters in Palos Verdes Estates defeated a parcel tax. San Diego shot down a tax on vacant homes. Contra Costa County voters rejected a sales tax increase.

In the city of Los Angeles, voters appear to be on track to reject Measure TT, a hotel bed tax increase.

And, yet, several tax measures are expected to land on the November ballot.

Firefighters with the Los Angeles Fire Department have gathered enough signatures to qualify a proposal for another half-percent sales tax to provide additional funding for the department. A committee backing the measure has raised more than $1.4 million, with major funding from the firefighters’ union, the California Community Foundation, a personal injury law firm representing firefighters, Airbnb and Rick Caruso.

Meanwhile, the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association has collected enough signatures to qualify a statewide ballot measure in California that, if passed, would effectively repeal the city of L.A.’s so-called “mansion tax” and make it harder for voters to pass local tax increases like Measure A or Measure ER in the future.

It would change the law to require a two-thirds supermajority of voter support to approve tax increases that land on the ballot through citizens’ initiatives — instead of a simple majority.

“We're confident that voters will approve it,” Shelley said. “We think this trend will continue in the November election.”

And the so-called “billionaire’s tax” is on California’s November ballot. The proposed one-time 5% tax on Californians worth over $1 billion aims to fund Medi-Cal programs.

Guerra says any proposed sales tax measures will face scrutiny in November.

"I think they're gonna have a little bit tougher time, and the strategy has to be much better developed,” he said.

L.A. County election officials said they plan to release new vote count results every day until June 12, followed by regular updates until June 26.

They are required to complete and certify the county’s final official results by July 2.