Measure ER is losing, signaling a possible shift in LA County's tolerance for tax increases

Days after the polls closed in Los Angeles County, Measure ER — a proposed half-percent local sales tax increase aimed at generating healthcare funds to offset massive federal cuts — appears to be losing.

If that happens, it will be the first time in more than a decade that county voters said no to a sales tax measure.

“It’s been almost like any tax measure will pass," said Fernando Guerra, Loyola Marymount University political science professor.

Not anymore. Experts say affordability concerns may be eroding support even among L.A. County's traditionally tax-friendly voters.

“Number one, we're spent,” Guerra said. "Number two, we don't trust the general decision-making. Number three, when we've given you specific dollars for specific issues, you haven't done it.”

The votes are still being counted, but as of Friday evening Measure ER was losing 48.5% to 51.5%.

It requires a simple majority to pass.

Measure ER would raise county sales tax from 9.75% to 10.25% for five years, generating an estimated $1 billion a year for the county’s general fund. County supervisors approved a spending plan directing those dollars to offset cuts to Medi-Cal under the Trump administration's One Big Beautiful Bill.

But that plan is not legally binding — a detail that critics of Measure ER hammered throughout the campaign.

The Yes on ER campaign committee, called Restore Healthcare for Angelenos, was backed largely by nonprofit health clinics and led by St. John's Community Health, a nonprofit that operates a large network of health clinics in Southern California. The campaign raised nearly $10 million to spread its message in TV ads that told voters, “Trump’s cuts are threatening hospitals and ERs,” and in mailers that urged them to raise the tax a “temporary half a penny to save healthcare access.”

The No on ER campaign committee, No Blank Checks LA County, was led by the L.A. County Taxpayers Association. It raised less than $10,000, according to L.A. County campaign finance filings. Aidan Chao, chairman of the taxpayers group, said he’s confident the No campaign’s narrow lead will hold.

“LA County voters are sending a clear message,” Chao told LAist. “They reject another bait and switch sales tax increase on top of the cost-of-living pressures families are already shouldering.”

As of Friday, Measure ER was behind by about 44,000 votes. L.A. County has processed and counted more than 1.6 million ballots, according to election officials who estimate more than 540,000 ballots are yet to be counted.

Measure ER has been able to narrow its deficit since initial Election Day results, as later mail ballots tend to skew toward Democratic voters, according to poll-watchers.

“If that trend continues, it's possible that ER could pass,” said Zev Yaroslavsky,  director of the Los Angeles Initiative at the UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs.

Tax fatigue?

Guerra said he figured L.A. County voters would have approved Measure ER by a margin of 5 percentage points or more.

"So I am a little taken aback,” he said. “It shows that there is something that's going on with a very progressive voter in L.A. about, ‘OK, maybe enough taxes.’”

The No on ER campaign said it heard the same thing from voters.

“We knew there was an abnormal aversion to taxation right now, which is completely off from the precedent,” Chao told LAist. “Voters were frustrated with taxes in general. They were frustrated with the way counties spend the money.”

L.A. County residents already pay some of the highest sales tax rates in the country. The county’s base sales tax rate is 9.75%, while the cities of Lancaster and Palmdale have sales tax rates above 11%.

In 2017, about 69% of county voters approved Measure H, a temporary quarter-percent special sales tax to fund services for homeless people.

Then in 2024, a narrower 57% voted to double the homelessness sales tax and make it permanent though Measure A, which now generates an estimated $1 billion a year for L.A. County’s homeless services and affordable housing efforts.

Yaroslavsky, a former L.A. County supervisor, said L.A. County voters are feeling the pinch of inflation and cost of living increases. In a UCLA survey he oversees, the number of people concerned about taxes as part of their cost of living ticked up this year, according to Yarovslavsky

"The less you earn, the more painful it is," he said. “And that's why I think this is gonna be closer than the measures that were passed with 70%. This one is not gonna get much more than 51% or 52%, if it passes.”

The coalition against Measure ER included dozens of representatives from cities that argued another sales tax increase was the wrong answer to the county’s budget problems.

The tax measure’s most prominent opponent was Kathryn Barger. She was the sole L.A. County Supervisor to vote against putting the measure before voters, while the other four backed it.

Barger appeared in a video ad for the No on ER campaign urging voters to reject it. The ad was recorded on the supervisor’s personal time, her office told LAist.

“We all support quality healthcare, but Sacramento should step up before asking taxpayers to pay more,” Barger says in the video. “And despite what supporters claim, the money goes straight into the county’s general fund with no guarantee where it will end up.”

Supervisor Holly Mitchell and Measure ER backers at rally for supporters.

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Yes on ER

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Supervisor Holly Mitchell, who backed putting the bill on the primary ballot, has said a sales tax increase wasn’t ideal, but she was out of options.

“As the county government, we are required by statute to be the safety net level provider of last resort for healthcare services, and yet the federal government pulled the funding rug out from under us,” Mitchell told LAist.

Yarovslavsky said he understands why the County Supervisors put the measure on the ballot. L.A. County is looking to save crucial healthcare programs.

“This is not a transit program or bikeways — things you can live with or live without,” he said. “This is a matter of life and death.”

What’s next?

A spokesperson for the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association, a statewide anti-tax group, told LAist the organization is hopeful a movement against higher taxes is gaining momentum throughout California.

“It's clear from the election results in Los Angeles and statewide that voters are frustrated and even angry that the taxes they already pay are apparently disappearing, while every urgent need, from firefighting to hospitals, somehow can't be funded without more tax increases,” Susan Shelley, a Howard Jarvis spokesperson, told LAist.

Voters in Palos Verdes Estates are poised to defeat a parcel tax. San Diego shot down a tax on vacant homes. Contra Costa County voters rejected a sales tax increase.

In the city of Los Angeles, voters appear to be on track to reject Measure TT, a hotel bed tax increase. And, yet, several tax measures are expected to land on the November ballot.

Firefighters with the Los Angeles Fire Department have gathered enough signatures to qualify a proposal for another half-percent sales tax to provide additional funding for the department. A committee backing the measure has raised more than $1.4 million, with major funding from the firefighters’ union, the California Community Foundation, a personal injury law firm representing firefighters, Airbnb and Rick Caruso.

Meanwhile, the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association has collected enough signatures to qualify a statewide ballot measure in California that, if passed, would effectively repeal the city of L.A.’s so-called “mansion tax” and make it harder for voters to pass local tax increases like Measure A or Measure ER in the future.

It would change the law to require a two-thirds supermajority of voter support to approve tax increases that land on the ballot through citizens’ initiatives — instead of a simple majority.

“We're confident that voters will approve it,” Shelley said. “We think this trend will continue in the November election.”

And the so-called “billionaire’s tax” is on California’s November ballot. The proposed one-time 5% tax on Californians worth over $1 billion aims to fund Medi-Cal programs.

Guerra says any proposed sales tax measures will face scrutiny in November.

"I think they're gonna have a little bit tougher time, and the strategy has to be much better developed,” he said.

The campaigns for and against Measure ER told LAist Friday it’s still too early to know which side won.

L.A. County election officials said they plan to release new vote count results every day until June 12, followed by regular updates until June 26.

They are required to complete and certify the county’s final official results by July 2.