After Texas ruling, Trump and Republicans head to 2026 with a redistricting edge

After the Supreme Court's conservative majority ruled in favor of Texas lawmakers last week, Republicans head into the 2026 election year with an edge in the redistricting fight kicked off by President Trump.

The court Thursday allowed Republicans' new congressional map to move ahead — despite a lower court finding that the Texas legislature had likely conducted a racial gerrymander.

The map could yield five more seats for the GOP.

It is the latest major turn in the nationwide redistricting race, from California to Florida, that Trump started to help maintain Republican control of the House of Representatives.

If Democrats take control of the chamber, they could stymie the president's legislative agenda and launch investigations of his administration.

The House is currently closely divided, with 220 seats held by Republicans and 213 held by Democrats. The sitting president's party tends to lose seats in midterm elections.

At this point, it appears the redistricting battle could tilt about 12 or 14 seats toward Republicans and Democrats could counter with around nine seats pushed their way — but that all depends on the outcome of pending court challenges and state legislative votes. So a lot is still in play.

Democratic state Rep. Matt Pierce speaks against redistricting in the Indiana House last week.

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This week, Indiana lawmakers are meeting on redistricting. And in Missouri, petitioners face a deadline on signature collections that could block the redistricting until a public vote is held.

It won't be clear if this all makes the difference in the House until votes are counted in the election on Nov. 3, 2026.

Trump started the race in Texas, California countered

States usually redistrict early in the decade after the decennial census determines how many seats each state gets based on their population. While states used to redistrict frequently in the 1800s and early 1900s, Trump's push has set off a redistricting race not seen since the 1960s.

Last week's Texas ruling followed a drama that played out this summer after Trump called on the state to tilt five seats toward the GOP. Democrats walked out for over two weeks to delay the passage of maps they said diluted the voting power of Black and Latino communities.

Democrats in California countered Texas by approving, with a special election, a map that could flip five seats held by Republicans there.

Republicans in Missouri and North Carolina voted to target a Democratic-held seat in each of those states. On Friday, the Indiana state House passed a new map that could help the GOP win two Hoosier seats. It goes to the Senate next, where Republicans are divided on the issue.

Some Indiana Republicans have been hesitant to follow Trump's call, though he and Republican Gov. Mike Braun threatened to support primary challenges against those who don't get on board. Several lawmakers have also faced anonymous threats to their families over the last few weeks.

It's easier for Republicans to redistrict than Democrats

Republicans have more options for redistricting than Democrats. For starters, redistricting is done by state legislatures and Republicans control more legislatures around the country than Democrats. Also, some of the states that Democrats control have legal barriers to partisan gerrymandering — that is, drawing lines to benefit a party — or they have laws requiring that special commissions draw the lines.

Republican Gov. Mike Braun (in glasses, center left) and Lt. Gov. Micah Beckwith in the Indiana Capitol attend a pro-redistricting rally last week that was organized by Turning Point Action.

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Virginia's Democratic-led legislature has voted to hold a special election that could amend the state constitution to allow redistricting. Another vote is required in January to hold the election in time. If it passes, the redistricting could tilt two or three seats toward Democrats.

The Democratic governor of Maryland has formed a commission to make redistricting recommendations. But that state already only has one Republican-held House seat to target.

Meanwhile, Florida's Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis is urging Republicans in control of the legislature to redistrict this spring and turn as many as five seats toward their party. A Florida House committee held its first meeting on redistricting last week.

But Florida has laws against partisan gerrymandering and could be limited by bans on racial gerrymandering in the federal Voting Rights Act. On the other hand, the Supreme Court is currently considering the VRA and could weaken it, allowing more redistricting that would likely work in the Republicans' favor.

The VRA outlaws intentional attempts to weaken the voting power of minority communities by "cracking" them apart into new districts or "packing" them into one district.
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