The Brief

Fifteen years ago, when modern electric vehicles were just hitting the road, no one knew exactly what to expect from their giant, expensive lithium-ion batteries.

As batteries age, they hold less and less energy. Anyone who's ever had a dying smartphone, or had to replace a vehicle's 12-volt starter battery, knows this painfully well.

EV batteries were intended to last longer than those smaller, cheaper batteries. But how much longer?

The predictions were not soothing. In 2010, the New York Times wrote that "estimates of [EV] battery packs' lifespan — no one knows for sure — range upward from seven years." The average car on the road is more than 12 years old. And that discrepancy made some would-be EV buyers nervous.

Batteries come with warranties, but they don't last as long as the car. If a high-voltage battery chokes out midway through a car's life, it needs replacing — at a price tag that can run in the ballpark of $5,000 to $20,000.

But there's good news.

As the fleet of EVs on the road ages, new data pooled from tens of thousands of vehicles is showing those batteries are lasting longer than expected.

How a battery ages 

Lithium-ion batteries undergo two kinds of aging. First, there's calendar aging: They degrade as time goes on, holding less juice, even if they just sit in storage.

Then there's cyclical aging, which is how much a battery degrades based on its use — being charged and discharged, over and over again.

That means there's no way to dodge degradation. Whether you use a vehicle a lot or a little, eventually, the battery will hold less energy.

But the trajectory of aging isn't a straight line. Recurrent, a research firm that pulls in data from over 30,000 EV drivers, describes it as an "S curve." There's a rapid decline at the beginning, a long leveling off, and then a more rapid decline at the end.

"It's very much like breaking in a pair of shoes," says Liz Najman, the director of market insights at Recurrent. The shoes start out stiff, but quickly get a little more give. "And then your shoes just last you," she says, until at some point, "It's all over, it's a rapid decline."

And when it comes to EV batteries, two things are becoming clear. The initial drop-off is not as severe as some people had worried. And the sharp end-of-life decline is taking a long, long time to materialize.

At auto auctions, a lot of healthy batteries

Adam George is a vehicle services director at Cox Automotive, which runs used car auctions around the country. In recent years, the number of used EVs for sale has increased enormously — reflecting the sharp rise in production a few years ago.

That's given Cox Automotive a growing pool of used EVs to evaluate before they're re-sold.

"We were expecting battery health to be experiencing mass degradation over the first one to three years of owning a vehicle," George says. "What we have seen, though, is that these 2, 3, 4-year-old off-lease cars that are coming back have battery health scores well upwards of 95%."

Recurrent's data also shows that cars from most major brands retain 95% or more of their expected range after 3 years, thanks in part to software and battery management systems that are designed to correct for the battery's early degradation, and give drivers consistent range.

So the initial drop-off in that S curve is in the range of 5% or so, give or take. After that? Well, Cox Automotive has tested nearly 80,000 EVs, and found an average battery health of 92%.

Decade-old EVs are overwhelmingly on their original batteries 

That data set is naturally skewed toward younger vehicles, because the vast majority of EVs on the road today are fairly new. There were only a million EVs sold between 2010 and 2018, and now there are more than a million sold each year.

So what about the oldest EVs, specifically?

Recurrent's data can help answer this question. Najman, a data scientist, notes a few caveats: It's a fairly small dataset, just because there weren't many EVs built more than a decade ago. And some of the oldest EVs use technology that can't connect to Recurrent's opt-in network.

But based on their community, among EVs that are 10 years old or older, only 8.5% have ever had a battery replacement. More than 90% of them are still on their original battery.

"EV batteries are holding up phenomenally well," Najman says.  

Recurrent has also looked at EVs of any age that have more than 150,000 miles on them, which provides a closer look at the effects of that cyclical aging. There, too, the batteries outperformed expectations.

"Cars with 150,000 miles or more, and that have not had battery replacements, are getting at least 83% of their original range," Najman says.

Now, there is one common reason why EV batteries will be replaced very early on: a defect. There have been multiple large-scale battery recalls, and any individual battery might have a flaw that requires replacement. But because all new EVs come with warranties, that kind of replacement isn't a financial blow to owners.

"That would be something that would be synonymous with, like, your engine or a transmission going bad," says Adam George, of Cox Automotive. "That's what warranties are for."

EV battery warranties typically cover at least 8 years and 100,000 miles, and automakers will replace the battery in the case of catastrophic failure, or a reduction in capacity (usually to 70% of the original or less).

A robotic arm displays the dual engine chassis of a Model S electric sedan at the Hawthorne Airport in Los Angeles on October 9, 2014.

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The tale of one Model S 

What do all these stats look like in real life? Consider Norman Hajjar's Model S.

Hajjar was an early adopter of electric vehicles. He kind of had to be: In 2013 he became an executive at the electric vehicle drivers' app Plugshare.

His 2012 Model S is one of the first that Tesla ever built. When he got it, he was well aware of the question mark about battery lifespan. "There was really no way of knowing what the future held for it because there was zero track record," Hajjar says.

In his case, the future held a battery defect: a loud noise followed by his car coming to an abrupt stop. He recalls Tesla replacing the battery — free of charge and under warranty — in 2014.

Since then, he's spent 12 years on that second battery. He's put around 200,000 miles on the car overall. And it's driving great, thank you very much.

"This vehicle still is a monster," Hajjar says, affectionately. "It is extremely fast, quick off the line."

The vehicle was originally rated to have 265 miles of range. Now it has about 220. Do the math, and it's at 83% of its original capacity. "The amount of degradation is pretty minor," Hajjar says.

Hajjar has moved on to a newer vehicle for his daily driver, mostly to enjoy higher-tech features. (His newer Model Y has Tesla's advanced driver-assistance software.) His son uses the Model S these days for his commute to college. "It's just sort of a backup vehicle now," Hajjar says. But he plans to hang on to it. He's sentimental about it, he says.

Why are batteries outlasting expectations? 

The engineers who developed modern EVs knew that prolonging battery life would be crucial. They designed systems to actively manage temperatures to improve battery lifespan, and software to constantly check battery health. Years have shown those efforts paid off.

But there's another reason EV batteries have out-performed expectations. It turns out that testing batteries is harder on them than the real world. Their lifespan was underestimated.

Simona Onori's lab at Stanford University has done research into the longevity of lithium-ion batteries, including a 2024 paper in Nature Energy showing that traditional methods for testing battery life are very stressful, and don't match the way batteries are actually used.

In most lab tests, researchers repeatedly cycle them from a very high state of charge to a very low one.

Real-world driving is gentler, with stops and starts — each start draws a bit of the battery's energy down, while each stop gives it a little time to recharge. A driver would never slam the accelerator to the floor and keep it there until the battery is dead.

"We accelerate, we decelerate," Onori says. "The battery will be charged, and discharged, some rest if you're at a traffic light."

Her lab's findings suggest that the traditional tests for battery life were unrealistically challenging, and Onori says ongoing work with real-world data is now confirming that. When they're actually driven, she says, EV batteries "age gracefully. Very gracefully."

Just like humans, she notes: "When we live a life with less stress, we live longer."

A decade plus … and counting 

So how long do EV batteries last? It's still too soon to put a precise number on it, because — as a group — the cars already on the road haven't yet reached the end of the S-curve, the point when they will start to show massive performance declines. In other words, they're not dead yet.

Meanwhile, battery technology keeps improving. The oldest EVs, like Hajjar's Model S, may not be the best indicator of how long newer EVs will last. Software systems to manage batteries have gotten more sophisticated. A lot of new EVs use a different battery chemistry — lithium iron phosphate or LFP — which lasts even longer than other lithium-ion batteries.

As Stephanie Valdez-Streaty, who follows EV trends for Cox Automotive, puts it: "These batteries are built to outlast the cars."

And there's one more wrinkle when it comes to figuring out the end of life for a normally-aging EV battery. They don't die abruptly, like an old engine cutting out. It's more that their range shrinks; they can only hold enough energy for shorter and shorter trips. Instead of shelling out for an expensive battery replacement, some EV owners might just put up with that limitation.

Thomas McVeigh, of Ontario, Canada, drives a 2014 BMW i3. That vehicle didn't have an impressive range even when it was new, and now it can only manage about 55 miles on a single charge in the winter. But it still looks great. It's pleasant to drive. It saves him on gas. Maintenance is wildly cheap for a 12-year-old vehicle, and especially for a BMW; his only real cost is new tires.

He's fine with its diminished range. And he's not inclined to put what he estimates would be a $6,000 battery into an aging car. Instead, maybe he'll pass it on to his kid. "Teenagers generally aren't going for long drives," he says.

Or maybe he'll keep it for himself, after all. "I mean," he says, "I love that car."

Copyright 2026 NPR

After months of debate and false starts, the Los Angeles City Council voted Wednesday in favor of developing a potential November ballot measure that would ask voters to rein in the city’s controversial “mansion tax.”

Ahead of the 9-5 vote to proceed with proposed tax breaks for new apartment buildings, Council President Marqueece Harris-Dawson said he has seen affordable housing construction decline in his district after the policy — called Measure ULA — took effect in 2023.

“I can tell you with certainty ULA has not helped,” Harris-Dawson said. “Housing starts are as low in my district as they’ve been the entire time I’ve been in office.”

Harris-Dawson said neighboring cities, such as Inglewood and Gardena, where new apartment buildings are not subject to L.A.’s tax, have not seen similar declines.

While a majority of the council voted to proceed with a possible ballot measure, Councilmembers Ysabel Jurado, Imelda Padilla, Monica Rodriguez, Eunisses Hernandez and Hugo Soto-Martinez voted against the proposal.

Reform advocates cheered the vote, but said more work is needed. Miguel Santana, president of the California Community Foundation, has pushed for changes with the “Mend It, Don’t End It” coalition, a group of affordable housing developers, labor organizations and business leaders.

“Today the City Council took another important step towards reforming Measure ULA in a way that will allow us to start building housing again while saving a critical funding source that we desperately need," Santana said in a written statement.

‘Mansion tax’ nuts and bolts

Measure ULA taxes the sale of real estate worth $5.3 million or more. That includes large, luxury single-family homes, which is why the measure is often called the city’s “mansion tax.”

However, the tax also applies to apartment buildings and other commercial real estate. Economists have said that’s causing a slow-down in new multi-family construction at a time when L.A. needs more housing supply to keep up with demand and prevent rents from spiking.

During Wednesday’s meeting, Councilmembers Tim McOsker and Katy Yaroslavsky put forward a motion asking the City Attorney to draft a ballot measure that would ask voters to cancel the tax on sales of multifamily and residential mixed-use buildings within the first 10 years of their construction.

That reform proposal is somewhat similar to earlier failed attempts at changing the tax, including from Councilmember (and now mayoral candidate) Nithya Raman and a separate effort from state legislators.

What happens next? 

The council’s proposed measure is still far from officially qualifying for the November ballot. Sending final language to the ballot will require another council vote, and the council could potentially decide later this summer to pull the measure.

If it does appear on the ballot, a majority of L.A. voters would need to approve the changes before new apartment buildings would be exempt. Close to 58% of the city’s voters supported Measure ULA when it first came up for a vote in November 2022.

In a separate vote Wednesday, the council moved forward with another potential ballot measure that would ask voters to exempt Pacific Palisades homeowners from the tax if they sell their properties after the January 2025 Palisades Fire.

To complicate matters further, voters are likely to encounter yet another measure on the November ballot related to the city’s “mansion tax.”

The Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association has qualified a measure that would repeal L.A.’s tax, and similar taxes across the state, while simultaneously raising the voter-approval threshold for new taxes.

How we got here

Though reforms are tentative at this point, the council’s decision to pursue a ballot measure is an about-face from a committee’s earlier decision to keep changes off the November ballot.

Jurado, the chair of that committee, repeated her argument that it’s too soon to conclude the tax has caused apartment developers to retreat from L.A.

“When we focus just on housing production alone, we’re missing the mark about what this measure was actually intended to do, which is to keep Angelenos housed,” Jurado said during Wednesday’s meeting.

What has tax revenue funded so far? 

Measure ULA has raised $1.2 billion over the last three years, far less than the $1.1 billion in annual funding supporters said the tax could raise. That funding has gone toward affordable housing construction and tenant aid programs, such as rent relief and eviction defense.

However, the city has encountered trouble spending the money on its intended purposes.

City Attorney Hydee Feldstein Soto has refused to sign contracts approved by the city council and the mayor in April for $177 million in tenant aid. And the measure’s strict rules on how tax revenue can be spent to support affordable housing projects have required city leaders to pursue changes to funding restrictions.

We asked the United to House L.A. coalition, supporters of the tax, for reaction to the city council vote, but did not receive an immediate response.

A fire at a Boyle Heights commercial building sent massive plumes of black smoke up Wednesday and prompted a shelter-in-place order.

The fire broke out around 2:35 p.m. at 1400 S. Los Palos St., according to the Los Angeles Fire Department. Aerial footage from KTLA showed the fire involving solar panels on the roof of the storage facility.

Heavy smoke was visible around Boyle Heights and into other parts of LA, and the LAFD said people near the fire should immediately shelter in place.

“Get inside IMMEDIATELY and close all windows and doors. Turn off air conditioning/heating. Bring all people and pets to an inside room until you receive more instructions,” an LAFD alert said.

The shelter-in-place order was in effect for the area south of Interstate 5, east of Soto Street, north of Washington Boulevard and west of Indiana Street.

According to East Yard Communities for Environmental Justice, the structure is an industrial freezer facility. In a series of Instagram stories, the organization urged residents to close their windows and stay inside.

This is a breaking story. Check back for updates, or follow us on Instagram.

The post Massive fire breaks out at Boyle Heights commercial building, LAFD orders shelter in place appeared first on LA Local.

Air quality regulators say an oil recycling facility in Compton violated pollution rules and improperly maintained some of its equipment.

The South Coast Air Quality Management District issued four notices of violation to World Oil Recycling in Compton, and one notice of violation to a contractor operating leaky equipment on its property.

The Compton facility “receives used oils, glycol and wastewater and re-refines these materials into engine oil and glycol products for reuse,” according to the air district. The largest oil recycler in the state, it’s located in some of the most pollution-burdened and low-income neighborhoods in California, as well, where asthma rates are higher than 95% of census tracts, according to state data.

The violations came after the air district started receiving odor complaints from residents at the start of this year. The agency received more than 70 complaints of strong odors of gas, including from the nearby Jefferson Elementary School, the agency said in a news release.

Officials then carried out more than a dozen on-site inspections, including using an infrared camera to identify gas leaks. They found hydrocarbons leaking from a wastewater storage tank, as well as a centrifuge pump. A small fire at the facility in late May also led to nuisance notices from the agency.

The company told LAist it is working to remove the leaky storage tank that may have caused the odors.

“World Oil Recycling provides an essential environmental service by recycling used oil and other materials, helping to keep them out of landfills and waterways,” a spokesperson for the company said in a statement. “We are committed to meeting or exceeding the highest standards at our facility in Compton, where we have operated safely for more than 40 years and serve as a major local employer.”

If World Oil Recycling doesn’t comply, it could face fines or litigation.

The company has faced such issues in the past. In 2019, the Environmental Protection Agency reached a settlement with World Oil’s Compton and Vernon facilities for violating hazardous waste regulations. The agreement required the companies to pay a $39,092 penalty and spend $167,967 on air filtration systems in nearby schools to reduce indoor air pollution.

The facility has received dozens of violation notices from the air district over the years, as well, mostly for minor maintenance issues.

In a statement to LAist, Compton Mayor Emma Sharif said the city “is working with the appropriate regulatory agencies as they continue their investigation.”

California will not consider the city of Los Angeles’ request for a time extension on three mobility projects in underinvested communities that are largely funded by more than $100 million from the state.

The exclusion of the request from the California Transportation Commission's June agenda spells an uncertain fate for the projects in Boyle Heights, Skid Row and Wilmington, which involve repairing sidewalks, adding bike lanes and installing traffic-calming measures to make streets friendlier to non-vehicular modes of transportation.

In April, the city formally requested a six-year extension on state-mandated deadlines to complete pre-construction work on the projects, saying recent staffing and funding constraints in the public works and transportation departments have hampered progress.

Justin Behrens, the spokesperson for the commission, said that while the state grant program offers time extensions in certain cases, “The requested time exceeded what is allowable under the guidelines,” and extensions were ultimately not recommended to be considered by the commission.

The state funds for pre-construction work, including environmental review and design, are set to lapse at the end of June.

L.A. officials said in a March report that without the time extension, “The city will be unable to meet these deadlines and lose the opportunity to provide these critical improvements for the city.”

The Bureau of Street Services, which is the lead agency on the three projects, did not respond to requests for comment.

'A deeply disappointing moment'

A statement from the office of L.A. City Councilmember Ysabel Jurado said the situation is “disappointing” and that the councilmember is taking time to “fully understand” what the California Transportation Commission’s decision means for the projects in her district.

“What we can say clearly is this: We are not giving up,” the statement read. “Boyle Heights and Skid Row have waited far too long for safer, more accessible streets, and the residents who organized for these improvements deserve more than a setback and a closed door.”

Jurado advocated for additional staffing resources across the bureaus of Street Services, Street Lighting and Engineering, as well as the Department of Transportation, to deliver the projects.

For Jens Midthun, the president of the DTLA Neighborhood Council, any investment in improving the walkability of downtown L.A. is a worthy one.

“People in downtown L.A. are here because they want to be,” Midthun said about the neighborhood’s transition from a business hub to a residential destination. “People want to be part of a vibrant city center.”

L.A. City Councilmember Tim McOsker's office said in a statement that infrastructure improvements in Wilmington “remain a priority.”

“We will continue exploring funding opportunities and other available options to advance as much of the project as possible,” McOsker's office said.

The grant program

Since its launch in 2013, the state’s Active Transportation Program has funded capital projects that promote walking, cycling or other non-motorized ways to get around. Behrens said the program is competitive and over-subscribed, meaning the applications for funds “far exceeds the available resources.”

Over the course of the grant program, L.A. has secured $500 million to fund 46 transportation projects across the city, according to a June report from Laura Rubio-Cornejo, the general manager of the city’s Department of Transportation.

Twenty of those projects have been constructed and staff is actively working on designing, implementing or closing out another 22.

Jurisdictions that win the funds have to adhere to strict timelines to retain the money, which is allocated based on different phases of a capital project. Failing to meet the program’s deadlines can jeopardize a city or county’s likelihood of clinching future grants.

The program’s deadlines require the city to allocate funds for construction for the three projects in question by the end of June 2027. In its request for a time extension, the city said it would need an additional six years to get to that point.

Absent a time extension, it’s unclear what the path forward is for the three projects.

The city in June submitted its application for the next round of Active Transportation Program grants, though its ambitions were tempered by “staff resource limitations and the city’s existing grant commitments.”

The projects it submitted for consideration to the state include extending the LARiverWay bike path and enhancing mobility along Huntington Drive.