California voters appear to support a billionaire tax, split on proposed voter ID law

California voters are split along party lines on two controversial proposed ballot measures — a billionaire tax and an initiative requiring voters to show government ID when they cast a ballot — according to a new poll.

The survey from UC Berkeley’s Institute of Governmental Studies found 52% of voters backing a proposed one-time, 5% tax on the net worth of billionaires. The money would be used to fund health care programs, which are being cut by the Trump administration; 33% of registered voters said they were opposed and 15% said they are still undecided.

Whether voters back the measure, which is being pushed by a health care labor union, is highly correlated to their partisan leanings: 72% of Democrats said they’d support the billionaire tax if it qualifies for the November ballot, while the same percentage of Republican voters are opposed. Voters with no party preference were more split, with 51% backing the wealth tax.

The voter ID ballot measure is more evenly divided, with 44% of voters in support and 45% opposed. Republican voters said they would overwhelmingly vote “Yes.” Democrats are unified in opposition, with only 19% in support.

IGS co-director Eric Schickler said that while neither measure has qualified yet for the ballot, most voters surveyed said they are aware of the proposals.

“The Billionaire Tax Initiative starts out in a relatively strong position, but with it polling just above 50%, that still leaves room for what will be an intense, expensive campaign,” he said. “The Voter ID Initiative looks like it faces an uphill climb: given the strong Democratic opposition, it needs very strong support among nonpartisan voters, and it currently seems to be falling short. But it is still very early.”

If they move forward, the campaigns around both measures are expected to be expensive and bruising. Democrats are split on the billionaires tax: Gov. Gavin Newsom is opposed, Silicon Valley Rep. Ro Khanna said he’s in support, and many other Democrats — including legislative leaders and candidates for governor — have offered support for the concept but expressed concerns with the details of this proposal.

Some billionaires have already left California, and others, like Google co-founder Sergey Brin, are lining up huge campaign war chests to fight the measure.

And Democrats are gearing up to fight the voter ID measure, which several Southern California Republican lawmakers are pushing. The proposed ballot measure comes as the U.S. Senate debates what’s known as the SAVE Act, a far more draconian voter ID measure.

Backed by President Donald Trump, that legislation would require a passport or birth certificate to register to vote, essentially eliminate mail-in ballots and require states to hand over their voter rolls to the federal government. It already passed the House but is facing a steep climb in the Republican-led Senate.

The poll was conducted between March 9 and 15 among more than 5,000 registered California voters. It has a sampling error of plus or minus 2 points.