Rivals Eye Different Paths To 270 Electoral Votes

MICHELE NORRIS, host:

And now, we're going to play a little game called electoral map. It's actually much more than just a game. At stake, winning the presidential race. And as we go through this exercise, you will need to keep one number in mind, 270. That's the number of electoral votes needed to secure the presidency. The question is, how do the candidates reach that magic number?

This has become an obsession for political operatives and political junkies, an obsession made all the more interesting by the interactive maps you'll find in many corners of the Internet, including on our own website, npr.org. And so, we turn to our in-house expert, NPR's Washington editor, Ron Elving. Ron, let's play 270.

ELVING: Let's play.

NORRIS: Let's begin with Barack Obama. I understand that there are several paths to a possible victory?

ELVING: And they all begin with a base vote, that is John Kerry's states from 2004. He won 19 states plus the District of Columbia. If Barack Obama wins all of those, he will have a base of 252 votes. That's within 18 of the magic 270 number that you mentioned.

NORRIS: So, how does he actually get to 270?

ELVING: Well, one easy way would be take Ohio. That's 20. Another, take Florida, that's 27. Those are pretty tough orders, though. Those are close states. Another way he might go would be Virginia plus North Carolina. Those two together would be 28, putting him easily over 270. And those are all states we should hear from fairly early in the evening. Then, there's another scenario for the Midwest, where you've got Missouri and Indiana. Those are each 11. If you put them together, or perhaps in a combination with Iowa, which looks kind of Democratic to a lot of people, but not part of the Kerry base, and then you could go out West and have a whole nother scenario built around Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada. That trio would give you what you needed to reach 270 on top of the Kerry base.

NORRIS: Ron, I'm following along with you by actually looking at the NPR interactive map. Almost all, not all, but almost all the states you mentioned are either leaning Democratic or toss-up states.

ELVING: Yes, that's right. And there are really only six toss up states left. The most likely way, of course, that Obama would get from the Kerry base to 270 would be some combination, maybe a state from each scenario or something of that nature, or if he could peel off an Ohio or Florida, that would be enough right there.

NORRIS: So, possible paths to victory for Barack Obama. How about John McCain?

ELVING: John McCain, number one, of course, would ideally like to carry all the states that Bush had back in 2004. That would be 286 electoral votes over 30 states. Right now, we're leaning most of those states to him, but not all of them. And the electoral college value is way down from 2004. It's only 163. So really, what he has to do is, he has to first run the table on the remaining toss up states. There are six of them, Nevada, Missouri, Indiana, Ohio, North Carolina, and Florida. That would give him another 89 electoral votes.

NORRIS: Close, but not there, yet.

ELVING: 252, he's still 18 short. So then, he's got to go shopping. Quickest way to do it, win Pennsylvania. Take that off the Kerry base. That, of course, would put him there. And that would be all he needed. That's why he spent so much time there. Apart from that, he would have to maybe pull back Virginia from Obama, pull back Colorado, two states that are only leaning now, really, they're not solid for Obama, and/or put together a combination of those and some other smaller states.

NORRIS: Now, Ron, I'm afraid to ask you this question. But is it possible that you could work the math and come up with a 269 split?

ELVING: Yes. If you scramble these scenarios a little bit, you toss in New Hampshire with its four electoral college votes, that's a state that still likes John McCain, you can get to a 269 tie.

NORRIS: And what would happen in that case?

ELVING: In that case, and if all the electors did vote as their states had voted, which is a question mark - we've had faithless electors in the past - but if they did, then it would go to the House of Representatives to be resolved one state, one vote. Not one member, one vote, but each of the 50 states casting one vote.

NORRIS: NPR's Washington editor Ron Elving. Ron, thanks so much for coming in.

ELVING: Thank you, Michele.

NORRIS: And if you want to play 270 at home, please go to our website. That's npr.org, and there, you can find our interactive map. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.