Castro on the Mend, But Behind the Scenes

MELISSA BLOCK, Host:

NPR's Lourdes Garcia-Navarro reports that news of Castro's imminent demise may have been premature.

LOURDES GARCIA: Still, Fidel has kept everyone guessing. William LeoGrande is a Cuba specialist at American University.

WILLIAM LEOGRANDE: At this point, it really is a moment of transition. We don't have a successor government in place because Fidel is still alive and active, and there is still a possibility that he'll fully return to the top leadership positions in the government.

GARCIA: Frank Mora at the National War College says, though, that even if Fidel makes a full recovery, he believes partial power will remain in the hands of Raul Castro and his team.

FRANK MORA: For the sake of argument, let's call them Raulistas are beginning to consolidate their position and to govern in a different way than what we've seen in the last 47 years.

GARCIA: Raul, for example, has opened up the debate on some of the failings of the socialist economic system. But while there have been discussions there have been no practical changes to the way the country is run at all. Mora says that's because Fidel is still on the scene.

MORA: The fact that he's still alive, really, I think impedes moving forward in a rapid pace in the economic realm because Fidel has never been a fan of economic reform or the Chinese model, as some people like to say.

GARCIA: Even so, says Mora, the transition is taking place. Fidel, the leader, who managed every single aspect of Cuba, may be a thing of the past.

MORA: Raul has said often that no one can inherit the legacy and the style of Fidel other than the party, which to say were moving from a charismatic form of governing to a more bureaucratic form of governing.

GARCIA: And opposition groups on the island are trying to seize the moment. Prominent opposition figures signed a unity agreement for the first time last week. It's significant because dissident groups in Cuba have often mistrusted each other and have been heavily infiltrated by the government. They are still weak, but perhaps not as divided. Dissident Vladimir Roca spoke to NPR from Havana.

VLADIMIR ROCA: (Through translator) This is the right moment. This is a critical time in the country with Castro's illness, with the succession that doesn't end and the changes that never come. It was necessary to give a message of hope to the Cuban people, which is what we've done.

GARCIA: The United States government is also watching developments on the island closely. And while some had hope that Castro's illness and changes in the U.S. Congress might lead to a softening of positions that has not been the case. Again, William LeoGrande.

LEOGRANDE: U.S.-Cuban relations are as bad today as they have been at any time in the last 50 years. There's a policy on the part of the United States of regime change, of trying to destabilize the current government. And they've reacted to that by tightening down rather than being willing to open up at all.

GARCIA: Lourdes Garcia-Navarro, NPR News, Mexico City. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.