Where are the kids? Preschools in LA County struggle with enrollment post-pandemic

Preschool enrollment across Los Angeles County continues to lag significantly behind pre-pandemic numbers, according to a new report out Wednesday by UC Berkeley.

Last month, private centers and state-funded preschools in the county reported nearly 28,000 empty slots for 3- and 4-year-olds. From the start of the pandemic in spring of 2020 to 2022, preschool enrollment of children had fallen by nearly 22,000 children.

“Even though it looks like preschools are reopening, the students aren't coming back. So just how big the numbers were really surprised us,” said Holly Ondyak, coauthor of the report.

State-subsidized preschools felt an especially significant drop of 35% fewer enrolled children from 2019 to 2023.

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Why is there a decline?

There’s no single clear answer as to why there’s such a decline. Ondyak said the drop in enrollment could be attributed to a host of factors:

• The decline in birth rate, which in 2021 reportedly hit its lowest rate in more than a century
• Four-year-olds switching to transitional kindergarten, a free option through public schools
• More families taking advantage of state vouchers, which can be used for home daycares or paying a family member or friend.
• Demand could be shifting — families are leaving the state or might be wanting to keep their children at home.
• Staffing shortage: The numbers could also signal supply struggles in an already troubled industry.

“We’re hearing that some of [the schools] can't find enough staff — that search for paraprofessionals and aides is tough for a lot of places,” said Bruce Fuller, a professor of education at UC Berkeley and report co-author.

“There are lots of questions we have. And we definitely need to explore more about what is happening,” said Debra Colman, director of the L.A. County Office for the Advancement of Early Care and Education, which helped with the report.

Where are the children going instead?

While preschool enrollment has been lagging, the report noted that transitional kindergarten enrollment is growing, though it still falls 15% behind pre-pandemic levels. The report also notes that transitional kindergarten is growing unevenly across the county — with some districts seeing a decline in enrollment from 2019 to 2023.

“It does raise this equity issue — in terms of who’s better positioned to grow and if it's slightly better-off or somewhat better-off districts who can grow — is this going to reduce disparities in kids’ early growth? That's a huge question going forward,” Fuller said.

He said the report also points to how state policies might cause different programs to compete for the same children. The state is expanding transitional (TK), a free option for parents — and vouchers for families not on welfare have doubled in the county since 2022.

“We've got this crazy quilt of policies. The governor's trying to do the right thing if we think society needs to invest more in young children, but now we've got policies maybe working against each other inadvertently,” he said.

While the report focused on the enrollment decline in preschools, Colman pointed out L.A. County still lacks enough infant and toddler childcare. A county report found in 2022 that there’s only licensed capacity to serve 4% of children under 2 years old.

“There's a lot of opportunities to invest in early care and education as a whole, as opposed to thinking about it with simply preschool age or infant and toddler, or care for children before and after elementary school,” she said. “Thinking about the system as a continuum that can be supported with smooth transitions across that continuum for all children — that is really important.”