Even with the rain, destructive fires are still possible

While we saw a bit of rain over the past few weeks, the rainy season is off to a slow start here in Southern California. And with fuel moisture still hovering around critical levels across much of the area, destructive fires are still possible.

Lots of the moisture that the plants have been able to capture will dry out as warm conditions are likely to persist into mid-December.

That might not be as big of a deal on the fire front if we weren’t also heading into the peak of Santa Ana wind season, which runs from December until February. Wind driven fires can be all but impossible to stop and are generally the most destructive blazes we see in this part of the state.

The conditions bring to mind the Thomas Fire, which broke out on Dec. 4, 2017, and burned into January, wrapping up when decent rains arrived.

More than 1 million acres have burned across California this year. About even with the five-year average, though acreage doesn’t tell the whole story. So far, 2,077 structures have been lost in 2024, which while tragic, pales in comparison to some of our worst years in recent memory like 2018, when 100 people died and more than 24,000 structures were destroyed.

While we often hear in news conferences with officials that fire season is year round, that’s not really the case. If vegetation gets wet enough, it doesn’t burn as easily. Which is why we look to fuel moisture to tell us whether we need to worry about destructive fires.

Across much of L.A. and Ventura counties, live fuel moisture is around 60% to 65%, or just about what would be considered critical.

The good news is that across much of the northern part of the state, fire season appears to be a wrap thanks to recent storms that provided a thorough drenching.