What the El Segundo Chevron refinery explosion means for air quality and gas prices

A large explosion at a Chevron refinery in El Segundo Thursday night rocked South Bay neighborhoods and sent flames towering into the air that were visible for miles.

By Friday morning, the fire was out, but concerns remain about how air quality was and continues to be affected.

And then, there are gas prices. The disruption at the refinery and necessary repairs are likely to boost the cost of a fill-up, though by how much is not yet clear.

The effect on air quality

The good news? The winds appeared to be in Los Angeles’ favor this time, said Suzanne Paulson, UCLA atmospheric and oceanic sciences professor. When the explosion occurred, winds were blowing offshore, keeping pollution away from communities. And because of relatively windy conditions through the day, Paulson said the smoke from the fire will dilute more quickly.

“None of the data indicate that the smoke impacted the city last night,” Paulson said in a statement. (Though water quality advocates warn that once the pollution settles, it could harm sea life.)

The South Coast Air Quality Management District said pollution levels were elevated near the refinery overnight, but those had settled by morning.

It’s also not yet clear how much planet-heating greenhouse gas emissions were emitted. Refineries are required to report these emissions to the state, though not in real time. In 2022, the El Segundo refinery emitted more than 3 million tons of greenhouse gases — about the same amount of pollution as 761,501 gas cars driving for one year — making it one of the top industrial emitters in the state.

South Coast AQMD said Thursday’s pollution was mainly volatile organic compounds, or VOCs. The agency told LAist it monitored a maximum one-hour average of VOCs at 300 parts per billion, which is far below levels that are considered a major risk to health — though long-term exposure to VOCs, which are in a variety of household products and spew from car tailpipes, is not considered safe.

The agency did not specify which types of VOCs, stating most are non-toxic, but it urged nearby residents to stay indoors with windows and doors closed and to run a HEPA air purifier if they see smoke or smell any odors.

People watch a fire burn at a Chevron refinery in El Segundo on Thursday. A big explosion sparked the fire about 10 p.m.

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Public health experts told LAist that knowing the specific type matters because not all VOCs affect health in the same way.

Benzene, for example, is a VOC and carcinogen that often leaks from oil infrastructure. It’s considered a public health risk when inhaled at low levels for more than eight hours, said Seth Shonkoff, executive director of science and energy think tank PSE Healthy Energy, and a researcher at UC Berkeley’s School of Public Health.

Chevron said that “no exceedances have been detected by the facilities fence line monitoring system.”

But that doesn’t mean there weren’t any, said Kyle Ferrar, a researcher with FracTracker Alliance, a nonprofit that investigates leaks and associated health risks from oil and gas sites.

“The monitors that are in place are not typically placed in a way that is able to really see the difference between upwind and downwind,” Ferrar said. “So, number one, we need much more thorough, much more robust fence line monitoring to start.”

The 1,000-acre El Segundo refinery site has 18 fence-line monitors that detect 17 chemical compounds, including benzene.

Residents who live near refineries can sign up for air quality alerts from these facilities here and view data from the fence-line monitoring systems at refineries here. You can submit complaints to the AQMD about air quality concerns and odors here.

A firefighting crew continues to put out a fire at the Chevron Products Company El Segundo Refinery in El Segundo.

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What the fire could mean for gas prices

The El Segundo refinery is California’s second-largest and supplies about one-fifth of all vehicle fuels and 40% of the jet fuel consumed in Southern California.

Although early estimates predicted spikes of up to 95 cents per gallon across the West Coast, that estimate has since declined.

Matt McClain, a petroleum analyst with GasBuddy, said prices are likely to go up 5 to 15 cents per gallon in the coming days.

“ As we learn additional information, there needs to be a little bit of room for some tweaking,” McClain said.

How long it takes Chevron to repair the facility and restart production will be the biggest factor in how much gas prices rise.

The timing is especially rough because gas prices normally tend to spike in the fall, when refineries schedule maintenance operations across the state. To make up for these supply issues, the state often has to import oil from Asia, which is more expensive.

Meanwhile, McClain warned not to rush to fill up the tank to avoid a price increase.

“It’s going to become a self-fulfilling prophecy,” McClain said. “The more pressure you place upon the supplies that are out there, then that could have a faster impact as far as a rising price.”

The Phillips 66 refinery in Wilmington will close by the end of the year.

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The big picture

California has 13 refineries, six of which are in L.A. County. Phillips 66 in Wilmington and Carson will be winding down operations by the end of this year.

Oil production in the state has been on the decline since the 1980s, when the state had around 40 refineries. That trend is largely a result of California policy to clean up the industry and phase out fossil fuels, the burning of which worsens local air quality and heats up the planet. That reduction in production, though, has also been a factor in increasing gas prices.

Jamie Court with Consumer Watchdog said there are ways to protect consumers in that transition that have not been implemented.

Following record gasoline price hikes in 2022, Gov. Gavin Newsom called a special session to address the issue.

In 2024, Newsom signed a law requiring refiners to maintain minimum inventories of fuels and to have supply plans during maintenance or production outages, yet the California Energy Commission has yet to draft rules for this law.

In 2023, Newsom signed a law to penalize price gouging in the case of oil companies making excessive profits during these types of disruptions, but the Newsom administration put that penalty regulation on hold early last month.

“By backtracking on these rules or slow-walking these rules, the governor's put us all in a position where if gas prices climb, there's nothing we can do about it,” Court said. “ If this refinery doesn't come back online in a couple of weeks or a couple of months, consumers are going to feel it at the pump and we will be without the protections that the governor promised us in the last two years.”

Alicia Rivera, a community organizer with nonprofit Communities for a Better Environment, based in southeast L.A. and Wilmington, said the explosion is “a reminder about how dangerous it is to live close to refineries.”

Her grandson lives near the El Segundo refinery, and her sister lives just a few blocks away from the Torrance refinery, which was the site of a dangerous explosion in 2015.

“ It seems like we can't get away from refinery exposure,” Rivera said. “ Serious accidents can happen at any time, especially here in Southern California where most of the refineries are located.  We cannot afford to continue to degrade our environment just to continue using fossil fuels. We need to switch to alternative energy that is safe and that is long lasting.”