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After A Not-So-Big Quake This Week, We Got This Question: Can One Big Quake Trigger Another?
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Dan Carino
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LAist
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After last night’s 4.2 magnitude quake near San Bernardino, listener Marcos Garcia-Nuñez reached out with an excellent question: How likely is it that a big earthquake on a fault like the San Andreas, will trigger another quake nearby?
Possible, but not very likely
“It’s certainly possible, but the likelihood of that happening is pretty low,” said U.S. Geological Survey seismologist Clara Yoon.
Anytime there are major stress changes in the Earth, a nearby fault that’s been loaded and ready to go could also slip.
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“Ideally we’d like to know how much stress has built up pretty much at every point underground in the Los Angeles area, but we just don’t have that information. So we can’t tell, 'hey this earthquake is triggering a fault in this area, but this other earthquake will not,'” said Yoon.
It’s been speculated that the 2023, 7.8 magnitude quake that first struck Turkey last year helped trigger the nearby 7.5 magnitude quake that followed.
There were fears after the 2019 Ridgecrest quake that the nearby Garlock fault — the second largest fault structure in California — could potentially trigger the San Andreas. Fortunately, that didn’t happen.
“The chance of one earthquake triggering a larger earthquake than itself is about 5%,” said USGS seismologist Elizabeth Cochran.
So, how do scientists determine if two quakes are related?
It essentially comes down to the amount of time between the two events. If it's shorter than the usual estimated rate between quakes on a fault, then there's a chance they could be.
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“It’s not an exact science in terms of directly linking one event to another,” said Cochran.
Get ready now (please)
A true Big One is inevitable and we all need to get ready. Check out the resources below. And if you need more motivation, listen to our award-winning podcast that got (scared) a lot of folks to finally put together their survival plans.
Listen
• 31:11
Listen
• 31:11
You’re at Union Station when the big one hits. The next two minutes are terrifying. By the time you make your way outside, the Los Angeles you know is gone. In Episode One, you experience what the first hours after a massive earthquake could be like.
Quake prep resources
Earthquake prep resources
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We don't want to scare you, but the Big One is coming. We don't know when, but we know it'll be at least 44 times stronger than Northridge and 11 times stronger than the Ridgecrest quakes in 2019. To help you get prepared, we've compiled a handy reading list
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- Your Guide To Surviving The Big One
- For Earthquakes, Forget The 'Go-Bag.' Here's How To Prepare
- How To Not Get Life-Threatening Diarrhea After A Major Earthquake
- 10 Earthquake-Related Questions To Ask Your Landlord Immediately
- How To Prepare For An Earthquake If You Have A Disability
- Listen to our Podcast The Big One: Your Survival Guide
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