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California's initial water allocation forecast is just 5%
Water flows through the Los Angeles Aqueduct at Moffat Ranch on April 7, 2023. Multiple wet years have helped bolster the amount of water California has in storage.
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Patrick Fallon
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AFP
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This week the California Department of Water Resources said that it was planning for a dry 2025, announcing that the initial allocation forecast for the State Water Project is just 5%.
That means just 5% of requested water supplies will be delivered to water agencies if the number carries through to the end of the rainy season, which is unlikely.
Not only does this initial allocation fail to take into account the recent November storms, as the year goes on more storms mean the number should climb higher.
That's what happened in 2022, which started with a similarly low allocation, only to end up at 100% after substantial precipitation.
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We should have a good idea of where things stand by the time the rainy season wraps up in April.
Southern California receives roughly 30% of its water from the State Water Project, about 25% from the Colorado River, and the rest from locally developed resources like groundwater. Though, each local agency relies more heavily on some sources than others.
The good news is that the Colorado River Basin watershed and the State Water Project look pretty good for this time of year, and multiple wet years mean our water storage is quite healthy, according to Brandon Goshi, manager of water resource management at the Metropolitan Water District.
“I think it's safe to say that 3.8 million acre feet of storage in our other programs are enough for multiple years of water reliability without water supply restrictions,” he said.
However, even with a solid start to the rainy season in California, drought conditions have returned to the Eastern part of the state according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.
Hot and dry weather associated with climate change desiccates landscapes faster, making them thirstier. So, it can take more water to hydrate them than it used to, leading to a higher likelihood of drought.
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