California voters will advance two candidates for governor to the November election in the most unsettled gubernatorial race in recent memory, concluding a long and winding primary campaign in which Democrats struggled to pick a new leader for the nation’s most populous blue state.
The decision comes at a particularly consequential time for California. Residents face a crushing cost of living, nation-topping gas prices made worse by the war in Iran, wildfire risks that have driven insurance companies out of state, an unstable state budget, impending federal cuts to the state’s expansive health system and an economy dampened by immigration enforcement.
Democratic former state Attorney General Xavier Becerra, who has promised to fight Trump and freeze insurance and utility rates, is the leading Democrat in opinion polls and is favored by much of the state’s Democratic establishment. He appeared in contention to secure one of the top two spots for November heading into Election Day.
Republican Steve Hilton, a Donald Trump-endorsed former Fox News host who has vowed to cut income taxes and slash environmental regulations, was polling in second place ahead of Election Day, having consolidated support from many of the state’s conservatives.
But billionaire climate activist Tom Steyer, a progressive Democrat who has self-funded his campaign to the tune of $213 million, was still fighting for one of the top spots. A series of polls released in the final days of the race showed Becerra in the lead with roughly a quarter of likely voters’ support, and Steyer and Hilton locked in a tight battle for second.
Votes could take days or weeks to tally. Pollsters and strategists noted that lingering Democratic uncertainty led some voters to wait so they could back whoever appears to be ahead.
“Those polls could become self-fulfilling,” said Paul Mitchell, a Democratic strategist whose company tracks ballot return data.
The race to succeed Gov. Gavin Newsom, who will leave office at the end of the year due to term limits, is the marquee contest on the ballot Tuesday. The seat is considered a shoo-in in November for Democrats, who have nearly twice as many registered voters as Republicans, and holds national importance for the Democratic Party’s pushback to the Trump administration.
It’s also been one of the most unusually open races in recent state history.
No Democratic stars in the race
In contrast to decades of California politics dominated by movie stars, family dynasties and larger-than-life personalities, none of the most recognizable Democratic names jumped into the race.
That led to a crowded field on the left, briefly causing liberals to panic that Hilton and a fellow Republican, the bombastic Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, could each garner more votes than any Democrat, locking the party out of the general election. The state Democratic Party began a public pressure campaign asking lower-polling candidates to drop out. Nearly all stayed in the race.
But when Democratic then-Rep. Eric Swalwell dropped out over multiple sexual assault allegations, Becerra was the clear beneficiary, raking in many of Swalwell’s donors and supporters. He’s been surging ever since, successfully dodging criticism of his record. Steyer, who spent $200 million boosting his name recognition through campaign ads, consolidated much of the party’s left flank. Former Rep. Katie Porter, a progressive dogged by allegations about her temperament, fell behind. San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, a moderate backed by Silicon Valley billionaires, rose from single digits in the polls, but not enough.
Trump’s endorsement of Hilton quickly helped him pull away from Bianco, making it unlikely both Republicans would come in first and second. If Hilton advances to the November election, he faces long odds of being elected against a Democrat.
Both he and Steyer have spent the final weeks of the campaign portraying Becerra as a symbol of the status quo and themselves as agents of systemic change amid multiple state crises, with affordability dominating the race.
For Hilton, that would mean ending 16 years of “one-party rule” under Democrats, slashing spending and reversing many liberal policies such as greenhouse gas reduction mandates, the progressive tax system and parts of the social safety net.
“After 16 years of everything being in one direction, that’s left a lot of people dissatisfied,” he said last week. “Anybody who wants change or balance in our politics, the only choice is for me.”
His name recognition as a former Fox host helped him start the race with a fan base. Nancy LeVesque, a retired salesperson from Roseville, already admired him and said he was an easy choice as she dropped off her ballot at a Placer County vote center on Monday. She liked that he would bring an outsider’s perspective to the governor’s office and a change for those leaving California because of its liberal politics.
“We have lost so many good people,” to other states, she said.
Steyer styled himself as a populist “class traitor” who would force lower costs for Californians by taking on monied special interests like investor-owned utilities, the real estate industry and health insurance corporations. He made a litany of progressive promises on climate change, single-payer health care and raising taxes on the wealthy.
Undecided voter Tina Varnado attended a rally last week for Steyer hosted by her union, which represents home health aides. The South Sacramento resident is a full-time caretaker for her elderly mother and her adult daughter who had open-heart surgery. Between her mother’s social security checks and her pay as her daughter’s health aide, “we do have to spend everything we have every single month” to stay afloat, she said.
“Everything he touched on really touched home for me,” she said after hearing Steyer speak. “If we can lower prices, maybe we can start putting money down on a home for my future.”
Becerra has emphasized his long experience in government, including his lawsuits against the first Trump administration and his time as U.S. Health and Human Services secretary during the pandemic.
That appealed to Evan Cragin, of the California Young Democrats, which endorsed Becerra weeks before his sudden surge. Cragin said he wants the next governor to have government experience to push back on federal “abuses” from the Trump administration.
“Secretary Becerra has done that before,” Cragin said.
Surrounded by supporters at the offices of Planned Parenthood Affiliates of California on Monday, Becerra dismissed his opponents’ promises, pointing to past accomplishments including passing the Affordable Care Act and defending the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals immigration program.
“You can have all these great inflated promises,” he said. “Getting things done is not easy.”
Ryan Sabalow contributed reporting.
This article was originally published on CalMatters and was republished under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives license.
