The Brief

Ask Logan Sudeith how many bets he places in a week and he'll laugh. It's a comical line of questioning for the 25-year-old former financial risk analyst, who estimates he clocks about 100 hours a week on prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket. After a while, understandably, some of the bets blur together. What are his net profits, though? That's a number he's got at the ready.

"Last month, I made $100,000," said Sudeith, who does most of his trading from his laptop while bed-lounging in his Atlanta apartment. He's executing so many orders on the sites, he says, that he has no time to cook. So he DoorDashes every meal.

"My last salary was $75,000 a year, so I left my job to trade full time," he said

Some of his biggest hauls in recent months include lucrative stakes on Time Magazine's person of the year ($40,236), the most-searched person on Google last year ($11,083) and a wager on the New York City mayoral race ($7,448). And of course, a couple thousand here, a couple thousand there on questions like, how many times will a sports announcer say "air ball"? And will President Donald Trump use the phrase "drill baby drill" at an upcoming press conference? (Traders had $500,000 on the line on this market.)

"I'm not a fan of Trump, though I do spend most of my day listening to him and tracking what he is doing," said Sudeith, noting that whatever candidate in the next presidential race is the most friendly to prediction markets has his vote. "I could be a single-issue voter. If they're super-super heavy anti-prediction markets, it would be hard for me to vote for them."

The boom of online prediction markets is being driven by the Sudeiths of the world. He's one of millions of traders logging on every day to services like Kalshi and Polymarket to place high-dollar and incredibly risky bets on the outcome of the world in real time, whether it's an award host's turn of phrase to the number of migrants the U.S. will deport this year.

Much like previous financial crazes around meme stocks and NFTs, true believers view prediction markets through a stick-it-to-the-man prism. It's a movement against the elite establishment, they say, whether it's the mainstream media, pollsters or government agencies. This growing group of renegade traders maintain that core truths emerge only after thousands of people express their opinions with their pocketbooks.

"Markets are the most efficient way to get to real information," Sudeith said. "If you're watching on election night, I think you'll know who the winners are before the news can report it."

While the industry may position itself an alternative to the mainstream, the mainstream is embracing it.

CNN and CNBC have struck deals to incorporate Kalshi prediction markets into coverage. The Wall Street Journal's owner, Dow Jones, is partnering with Polymarket, as did the Golden Globe awards this year, with announcers updating viewers on Polymarket odds before every commercial break.

Founders of the prediction markets apps say they enable people to turn their opinion into a financial hedge against things like inflation or a government shutdown, yet skeptics say that is twisty and self-serving logic.

"They are gambling sites no different than FanDuel or DraftKings, a corner bookie or a casino in Las Vegas," said Dennis Kelleher, chief executive of Better Markets, a nonprofit that pushes for Wall Street reform.

Kalshi says 'there's no house'; not all agree

Traditional gambling often means wagering against "the house," where the casino acts like the banker, extracting fees and maintaining a competitive edge.

Prediction markets like Kalshi say they're different.

Here's how they work: A staff member creates "a market," often after one has been suggested by a user, like what will President Trump say at his next Oval Office briefing?

Then anyone can propose a "strike," the lingo for a term that's being bet on, whether, for instance, Trump will say "Greenland," or "Minnesota," or some other word or phrase.

Kalshi staff pick what terms will be bet on for both sides of that "yes" and "no" wager.

In order to work, however, there needs to be money on both the "yes" and the "no" side of the market, so Kalshi relies on institutional partners, like the hedge fund Susquehanna International, or everyday users with large enough portfolios to front the cash. This is called being a "market maker." Kalshi provides financial perks and data access to traders who do this.

But because traders are competing with other traders, Kalshi argues there is no house involved in these transactions.

Several federal lawsuits against Kalshi have challenged this notion, claiming that the Wall Street firms that Kalshi taps are indistinguishable from a traditional "house."

One suit filed this month in the Northern District of Illinois highlights that the company itself has a separate entity, Kalshi Trading, that supplies cash on the opposite side of trades.

"Thus, Kalshi users are betting against the house exactly the same way it would in a brick-and-mortar casino," wrote lawyer Russell Busch in the complaint.

Kalshi denies this. Company spokeswoman Elisabeth Diana told NPR that market makers merely price bids and asks and do not have a competitive advantage.

"Market making is completely different from being a house because a house has monopoly pricing power, whereas market makers compete with thousands of other market makers to take bids," she said.

The Trump family invests in prediction markets. The administration is taking a friendly policy stance

While the Biden administration sought to rein in this industry, Trump's regulators are breaking down barriers to allow it to flourish.

More than $2 billion is now traded every week on Kalshi, an amount the company says is 1,000% higher compared to the Biden years.

Polymaket, which was forced in 2022 to shut down in the U.S. for operating as an unlicensed betting site, recently won the Trump administration's blessing to re-launch in the U.S.

The Trump family is also getting in on the action. The president's son, Donald Trump Jr., is on the board of Polymarket, and his venture capital firm invests in the company. He is also a "strategic adviser" to Kalshi. Truth Social, the president's social media site, is planning to launch its own prediction market called Truth Predict.

The explosive growth and permissive regulatory environment has ignited a debate about the underbelly of an industry that essentially turns many features of modern life into potential monetary wins and losses. Fears persist that when elections, politics and foreign invasions become a gamble that insiders could abuse their access for profit and market odds could influence what actually happens.

Donald Trump Jr. speaks during The Bitcoin Conference in Las Vegas on May 27, 2025.

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Then there's the most prosaic, but perhaps more immediate worry: That the prediction markets gamify trading with slickly designed apps, one-click checking account deposits and constant push alerts, catering to compulsive online bettors. They're not unlike other app-based trading platforms, but now almost anything is a potential betting opportunity, which economists and other financial experts say can enable a new generation of gambling addicts.

While individual bets on Kalshi are not public, the app has a leaderboard showcasing top profit winners.

That offers hope to some traders who turn to Discord and Reddit to discuss how losses have set them back.

"I'm down 2000 this week when I was up 1200 last week," wrote a Kalshi trader who goes by Educational_Pain_407 on Reddit. "Lost it all and keep trying to claw it back. So I don't know what to tell you but right now I don't have enough to pay my bills in my bank account so I can't bet even if I wanted to."

There are three federal lawsuits against Kalshi seeking class action status alleging the apps have sucked young traders into gambling addiction.

Officials at Kalshi have said if traders "lose their shirt that's on them," and even the Reddit user behind on his bills concedes it's a matter of personal responsibility: "Live and learn and pay for your mistakes. The consequences of being an adult," he wrote recently.

While online sportsbooks and gambling are nothing new, the rapid speed, volume of cash and ease at which transactions flow across prediction market apps set them apart from other forms of betting, according to legal and financial experts.

"Like sports betting, these platforms can be addictive. It is the adrenaline rush that the target demographic is chasing," said Melinda Roth, a visiting professor at Washington and Lee University's School of Law who studies prediction markets. "I do believe this is a looming public health crisis."

Decoding the lingo: 'Mogged,' 'Fudded,' 'PMT'

Evan Semet, 26, is another diehard prediction markets trader who left his salaried position in finance as a quantitative researcher after he started raking in six figures a month on Kalshi."I don't feel the need for another job at the moment," he said.

His first golden ticket came via bets on the number of Transportation Security Agency screenings that happen across a certain period on Polymarket.

Semet said he set up a dedicated server through Amazon Web Services to host statistical models that he runs to help him decide where to place bets.

"It was pretty modelable," he said, noting that he leans on the finance savvy he gleaned at a trading firm to make money on predictions. "Most day traders draw some shapes on a chart and think it has some statistical significance but it's really just astrology," he said. "They're old-school gamblers going off of intuition. I try to be driven by statistics."

To stay tapped in, he's often toggling between multiple live trades on one screen and following a discussion among other traders on the social network Discord.

Keeping up on what's happening there requires understanding a hyper-specific type of lingo that's a blend of Generation Alpha and Gen Z slang, repurposed finance terminology and a grab-bag of other cultural influences from gaming to crypto to the gutter humor of fringe sites like 4chan.

If you've been out-maneuvered by another trader, you've been "mogged."

Advertisements by the company Kalshi predict a victory for Zohran Mamdani in the New York City mayoral election before the polls closed Nov. 4, 2025.

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If a market has "fudded," people are selling their positions out of fear, uncertainty and doubt. A "rulescuck" is someone who is a stickler for the rules of a betting market and will try to win on a technicality.

A "bondsharp" is a well-known community member who frequently puts up money on the other side of a bet.

These are just a handful of the terms required to stay apace of the chats on Discord, where PMTs are often discussing their full port (prediction market trader, and full portfolio, of course).

"It is a good amount of terminology. It's borrowing lingo and terms from stuff I've heard at real trading firms mixed with online pop culture," Semet said.

Prediction market trading can be a compulsive sport for many of them, who admit they can be dopamine junkies. Others prefer to avoid the pressure-cooker feeling of watching a bet win or lose live.

"It's an antsy, gambling-like feeling watching it all happen live," Semet said. "It's intense, almost feels like the fog of war, trying to decide what to do," he said. "Sometimes I prefer to not look at all and see how I did later."

How predictions markets got into politics

Kalshi's big day came, as it were, on Election Day in November 2020.

That's when they got word that Trump's Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which regulates futures contracts, greenlit it as a "designated contract market," a blessing that essentially gave the platform a license to operate as a financial exchange.

It was a long time coming.

For years before that, Kalshi's co-founders Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara, former Wall Street traders who met at MIT, had been battling a skeptical CFTC, which had long rejected similar applications over concerns that an events contract platform would operate a type of gambling outside the purview of state gambling commissions. Regulators also feared the bets invited insiders to rig the outcomes of events from sports to elections.

As Kalshi hired lawyers and lobbyists leading up to their CFTC approval, another prediction market, where most are betting with cryptocurrencies, Polymarket, was exploding in growth. It, however, had not bothered to even try to receive federal buy-in. The Biden administration shut down the exchange for operating without a license. Now, Polymarket has the CFTC on its side, and is staging a U.S. comeback.

Two developments helped Polymarket's return: the company acquired a little-known derivatives exchange QCX, which had already obtained CFTC approval. And the Trump administration's CTFC and Justice Department abandoned investigations into Polymarket.

States, however, are on the attack. Massachusetts has sued to push Kalshi out of the state. Eight other states, including New York, New Jersey and Maryland, have sent the company cease and desist letters alleging that it is operating as an illegal and unlicensed sports gambling site. The motivation is clear: Gambling brings in serious tax revenue for states, while prediction markets bring in none.

For both Kalshi and Polymarket, one of the most controversial areas of prediction market trading is elections, an issue Biden-era regulators took Kalshi to court over.

Under the 1936 Commodity Exchange Act, which was updated in 2008 after the financial crisis, future event contracts cannot involve terrorism, assassinations or "games," but political betting is not explicitly banned.

Biden administration lawyers argued that placing wagers on races amounted to a game, a word that is not defined at all in the law. Election bets, the regulators contended, could turbocharge the spread of political misinformation and create financial incentives for voters to cast a ballot even when it's contrary to a voter's political views.

It also puts the CFTC in the awkward position of having to investigate news, whether real or fabricated, that moves a prediction market. Former CFTC officials told NPR that the agency has never been equipped to be "an election cop."

The federal appeals court in Washington, D.C. rejected that framing and handed Kalshi a major victory. The court also pointed out that the harm these markets would cause the government was not "concrete" enough.

The Trump administration dropped the appeal, unleashing what is expected to be an unprecedented torrent of prediction market cash into this year's midterm elections, which is raising alarms among those pushing for stricter regulations on this industry.

"AI, deepfakes, and other nefarious activities to attack candidates could easily impact the betting activity and odds, as well as the actual outcome of elections," said Kelleher of Better Markets. "They don't really care who wins or loses. They only care about the volume of bets and driving that volume as high as possible."

Regulators appear unprepared. The CFTC usually has five commissioners but currently only has one. Meanwhile, Kalshi's board includes former CFTC Commissioner Brian Quintenz, who was among the officials who gave the platform its federal approval in 2020.

Former CFTC Commissioner Kristin Johnson, who left the agency in 2025, said that lack of commissioners comes on top of high levels of turnover among the most senior staff lawyers.

"We're essentially asking the CFTC to get involved in engaging and policing an element of our democratic process that we really haven't thought carefully enough about," Johnson said.

Insider trading scrutiny grows

Before a U.S. operation ousted Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, one trader on Polymarket banked a nearly half-million-dollar profit on a bet Maduro would not remain president for long.

While the trader's identity remains a mystery, speculation continues to rattle around the internet about whether the person had insider information. The episode has renewed scrutiny on how the companies ensure bets aren't rigged.

On Discord, when traders see a large bet placed that immediately stands out as an outlier, cries of "the market is insidered" are common. Proving it is another matter.

As is often the case on the platforms, open-shut evidence of insider trading is elusive. Kalshi requires a government-issued ID to sign up in order to trace any possible market manipulation back to a real person. Polymarket does not, but it has yet to publicly re-launch its U.S. app. Internal and third-party surveillance tools, the companies say, are on the lookout for unusual activity.

Congress has begun to take notice. Following the Maduro trade, Rep. Ritchie Torres, D-NY, and 30 other Democrats, sponsored legislation banning federal officials from using prediction markets to trade on policies or political outcomes using non-public information.

Being up against an insider is always a risk, said full-time prediction markets trader Semet.

"There's always going to be someone who has more information than you, unless you're the insider," he said. "There are certain accounts that miraculously have every single Google and OpenAI release date nailed perfectly, and it's like, all right, just don't fade those people," he said using the slang word for voting against another trader.

When asked if he thinks Kalshi and Polymarket are doing enough to combat insider trading, he gave a blunt assessment: "F*** no," Semet said. "I really don't think they care."

"Tailing," or making a bet joining in on a suspiciously large bet is common on the platforms. Bloomberg on Monday reported on a new tool that allows traders to get alerts when anomalous transactions occur so they can potentially cash in on what could be a winning wager.

From the vantage point of these traders, nearly everything has a trading implication.

And that kind of thinking can fuel conspiratorial theories about why something did or did not happen.

Take, for instance, a recent White House press briefing in which press secretary Karoline Leavitt left the room seconds before hitting 65 minutes. To most, that was unremarkable.

Yet on Kalshi, that looked like a secret message, because many thousands of dollars in bets were at stake that she would cross the 65-minute mark.

The chatter about Leavitt was mentioned on CNBC, which got the attention of traders on Discord, who wondered if this or another incident will ever lead to a PMT, prediction market trader, testifying in Washington about rigging the markets.

"PMT getting called before Congress," wrote a Discord user, whose handle is "permanent resident of hell," they added: "Let's get a market on it."

A refrigerated warehouse operated by Lineage Logistics has burned in Boyle Heights for nearly a week. Public health officials are urging residents nearby and downwind to protect themselves from the smoky air.

But what exactly is in the air is still unclear.

Authorities say they’ve cleared the most hazardous materials — ammonia and lithium-ion batteries — from the fire zone. A spokesperson for the L.A. Fire Department said foam insulation, wood pallets of food, and solar panels on top of the 500,000 square-foot building continue to smolder.

Materials including plastics, electronics and even rotting meat are likely burning, which means the pollution particles emitted “tend to be highly enriched with toxic organics, toxic metals, that are above and beyond what just normal, day-to-day air pollution would look like,” said UCLA air pollution researcher Yifang Zhu.

She said air quality indexes may capture the concentration of particulate matter in the air, but not necessarily the specific toxins in them.

“You'll have almost like a double jeopardy in a sense that the levels [of particulate matter] are higher, and the toxicity is also higher,” she said.

Measuring heavy metals or volatile organic compounds requires special monitoring equipment, Zhu said.

“It’s very difficult to measure,” she said.

But she suspects at least some types of health-harming heavy metals are likely to be in the smoke.

Los Angeles City Councilmember Ysabel Jurado on Monday called for more specifics about what is in the smoke.

People “shouldn't have to guess about what they're breathing or rely on rumors, scattered information and updates, and incomplete information,” she said at a news conference. Jurado, whose council district includes Boyle Heights, added that data from regulators, such as the South Coast Air Quality Management District, should be released in clear, understandable language in English and Spanish.

The South Coast AQMD told LAist before Jurado spoke that the agency has monitors that measure particulate matter, ozone, carbon monoxide and nitrogen dioxide, but not other types of pollutants. The agency said it has set up additional monitors at Eastman Avenue Elementary and Robert Louis Stevenson Middle School. The agency added that the Environmental Protection Agency is also monitoring air quality at the fence line of the facility. LAist has reached out to the EPA for details.

Zhu added that even when the fire is eventually put out, the cleanup can kick up even more pollution — a lesson learned through her research after the L.A. fires.

“ I think people really need to take precautions,” Zhu said, emphasizing that those closest to the fire and downwind should avoid being outside as much as possible, keep windows closed, run a HEPA or MERV 13 air filter, and wear an N95 or similar mask otherwise.

UC Irvine toxicology professor Michael Kleinman said if thawed meat is also burning, that could lead to further toxic gases being released.

Experts urged precautions, especially if you smell smoke.

“ For people who are very close to the fire, like the firefighters themselves, they have exposure to both particulate matter and potential toxic gases, and that's why you'll see them wearing respirators,” said UC Irvine chemistry professor Suzanne Blum. “But once you're some feet away from the building, then the primary concern is the particulate smoke that is coming from this fire.”

As the Boyle Heights warehouse fire burns into its sixth day, SoCal residents are increasingly concerned about the air quality and potential health risks that come with breathing in the smoke. So, what alerts have been issued so far and how can residents be prepared?

Both Gov. Gavin Newsom and Mayor Karen Bass declared a state of emergency on Saturday, a designation that helps California coordinate with local agencies to make sure there are enough resources for the firefight and residents who have been affected after a fire started at a cold storage industrial facility. Los Angeles County Supervisor Hilda Solis said at a press conference Monday that  the county is "delivering supplies, air filters, and air purifiers" to local households.

Los Angeles County public health officials and the South Coast Air Quality Management District (AQMD) also issued a particle pollution advisory that remained in effect until today. Affected areas included: Central Los Angeles County, the San Gabriel Valley, East San Fernando Valley and Northwest San Bernardino Valley.

Although recent air quality readings appear as “moderate” to “good” on South Coast AQMD’s website, the fire is still burning and might be for a few more days.

So what can SoCal residents do to protect themselves?

If the air quality index reads “good” or “poses little to no risk” in some areas, hazardous ash can still be present. If you see ash on your car, or windowsills, you might want to stay inside if possible. In “moderate” or yellow zones, unusually sensitive people are also recommended to avoid longer periods outside.

In the next few days, some might notice windblown ash floating in the air or coating outdoor surfaces. These particles are otherwise known as “fine particulate matter,” which consists of soot, burned plastic and perhaps even traces of the spoiling frozen food from inside the warehouse.

Why that matters

Too much exposure from these materials may cause temporary irritation to the eyes, nose, throat and lungs. If you suffer from health issues that are exacerbated by poor air quality, like respiratory illnesses, you may be affected by these conditions even more.

Four expert tips to protect yourself and your family:

• If you smell smoke or see ash, try to remain indoors with the windows closed. If you can’t, consider stepping outside with an N-95 mask, and refrain from engaging in any rigorous physical activity. 
• In your homes, also avoid using whole house fans (air conditioning is okay), as they can bring in the polluted air from outdoors. 
• If you have an air purifier, this is the time to use it. 
• Avoid using fireplaces, candles and vacuums, as they can introduce toxins into the clean, indoor environment.

For more guidance on precautions following the fires, visit Los Angeles County’s public health website for more. South Coast AQMD’s website also has more healthy and safety tips.

Updated June 22, 2026 at 16:22 PM ET

Argentine soccer superstar Lionel Messi has broken the record for most World Cup scoring.

Messi made the record goal, his 17th, during the first half of Monday's game against Austria. It was a heated match. Austria attacked relentlessly, and Argentina relied on its defense and on goalkeeper Emiliano "Dibu" Martinez. And, near the end in stoppage time, Messi scored again, finishing off at 2-0.

The team captain started off the World Cup with a bang: in the opener against Algeria, Messi scored a hat trick: three goals. A rare feat in soccer. He has scored all five goals for Argentina this World Cup. With the win, Argentina advances to the knockout round.

Messi hails from the province of Santa Fe, Argentina, an area known for producing excellent players. He faced challenges at an early age: he had a hormonal growth deficiency, which was difficult to treat in his hometown, given the severe economic crisis facing Argentina in the late 1990s. By 2001, the Messi family had decided to accept an offer for him to join La Masia, FC Barcelona's youth academy, in Spain. Messi was 13 years old.

It was at Barca that he rose to fame and developed his unique style of walking the pitch, patiently waiting for the right opportunity to jump on the ball, dribble skillfully past his opponents, and score.

Argentina's Lionel Messi, now the all-time World Cup scoring leader, celebrates scoring his team's second goal during the FIFA World Cup 2026 group match against Austria.

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Although a legend of Barca and European soccer, he often expressed a desire to play for the Argentine national team in a World Cup. He got his chance in his 20's, but it wasn't smooth: he was widely seen as a foreigner who had not paid his dues in the Argentine soccer system. His measured, calculating style of play was often misunderstood in South America, where players tended to have a quicker, more aggressive technique.

There were several World Cup attempts that were disappointing, and after the 2016 World Cup, he announced he would not be playing again. "It's over," he said outside the locker room, visibly shaken. "I tried so hard, it is unbelievable, but it hasn't worked. Me and this team are through."

The tides turned under the leadership of Argentine Coach Lionel Scaloni, and Messi led the team to a Copa America victory in 2021. Argentina won the World Cup the following year.

This is Messi's sixth World Cup and he's considered one of the best players in soccer history.

Messi also surpassed Brazilian superstar Marta, who had scored 17 goals at the Women's World Cup.

Copyright 2026 NPR

More than two dozen state historic parks are free through the end of the year in honor of Juneteenth — and the 250th anniversary of the signing of the Declaration of Independence.

Gov. Gavin Newsom announced the free “special edition Historian Passport,” which typically costs $50, as a rebuke to President Donald Trump’s attempts to “rewrite the past,” according to a news release by the governor’s office.

Since his inauguration, Trump has ordered staff working at all National Park Service locations to remove any content that casts Americans in a negative light from parks, monuments and memorials.

“California doesn’t hide from hard truths and uncomfortable history — in fact, we embrace it and learn from it,” Newsom wrote.

Until July 6, Californians can download the state historic park pass for free and use it as many times as they want through the end of 2026. The pass gives free entry to state historic parks for up to four people.

The Historian Passport grants entry to more than 30 state historic parks, including parks like Olompali and Malakoff Diggins which, rather than just providing outdoor recreation, also have an educational emphasis on the state’s history.

Jack London State Historic Park in Napa Valley, California.

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Many of these parks tell the story of the state’s cultural or indigenous history, from missions and museums to temples and the site that sparked the California Gold Rush.

Newsom made a similar move to make state parks free for Martin Luther King Jr. Day this year, in response to Trump’s decision to eliminate the holiday from the list of fee-free days at national parks across the country, replacing it with his birthday on Flag Day.

How to get your free Historian Passport for up to four people

You must make an account with the state’s reservation site ReserveCalifornia.com to obtain a Historian Pass. Then, visit the site’s Advance Passes page and select “Special Edition Historian Passport” from the dropdown menu, which will show as costing $0. No payment information is required.

After checking out, you’ll receive an email with an attached PDF version of your Historian Passport.

The state recommends you print off this PDF to present at any California state historic park for free entry, although you may just be able to show the image on your phone too.

Bear in mind that cellphone service may be poor at many state historic parks, so it’s worth screenshotting the PDF to save it as an image on your phone in case you’re unable to search your email.

Looking for free entry to other state parks that aren’t included in the Historian Passport? Consider checking out a parks pass from your local library, which provides these passes as part of the California State Library Parks Pass program.

KQED’s Carly Severn contributed to this report.