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The Brief

The most important stories for you to know today
  • Traders place bets on everyday incidents
    a white man with short dark hair wearing a green flannel shirt poses for a photograph
    Logan Sudeith, 25, estimates he clocks about 100 hours a week on prediction markets.

    Topline:

    Millions of traders logging on every day to services like Kalshi and Polymarket to place high-dollar and incredibly risky bets on the outcome of the world in real time, whether it's an award host's turn of phrase to the number of migrants the U.S. will deport this year.

    What's driving this trend? Much like previous financial crazes around meme stocks and NFTs, true believers view prediction markets through a stick-it-to-the-man prism. It's a movement against the elite establishment, they say, whether it's the mainstream media, pollsters or government agencies. This growing group of renegade traders maintain that core truths emerge only after thousands of people express their opinions with their pocketbooks.

    Why now: While the Biden administration sought to rein in this industry, President Donald Trump's regulators are breaking down barriers to allow it to flourish. More than $2 billion is now traded every week on Kalshi, an amount the company says is 1,000% higher compared to the Biden years.

    Read on ... for a deep dive into the wild world of prediction market trading.

    Ask Logan Sudeith how many bets he places in a week and he'll laugh. It's a comical line of questioning for the 25-year-old former financial risk analyst, who estimates he clocks about 100 hours a week on prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket. After a while, understandably, some of the bets blur together. What are his net profits, though? That's a number he's got at the ready.

    "Last month, I made $100,000," said Sudeith, who does most of his trading from his laptop while bed-lounging in his Atlanta apartment. He's executing so many orders on the sites, he says, that he has no time to cook. So he DoorDashes every meal.

    "My last salary was $75,000 a year, so I left my job to trade full time," he said

    Some of his biggest hauls in recent months include lucrative stakes on Time Magazine's person of the year ($40,236), the most-searched person on Google last year ($11,083) and a wager on the New York City mayoral race ($7,448). And of course, a couple thousand here, a couple thousand there on questions like, how many times will a sports announcer say "air ball"? And will President Donald Trump use the phrase "drill baby drill" at an upcoming press conference? (Traders had $500,000 on the line on this market.)

    "I'm not a fan of Trump, though I do spend most of my day listening to him and tracking what he is doing," said Sudeith, noting that whatever candidate in the next presidential race is the most friendly to prediction markets has his vote. "I could be a single-issue voter. If they're super-super heavy anti-prediction markets, it would be hard for me to vote for them."

    The boom of online prediction markets is being driven by the Sudeiths of the world. He's one of millions of traders logging on every day to services like Kalshi and Polymarket to place high-dollar and incredibly risky bets on the outcome of the world in real time, whether it's an award host's turn of phrase to the number of migrants the U.S. will deport this year.

    Much like previous financial crazes around meme stocks and NFTs, true believers view prediction markets through a stick-it-to-the-man prism. It's a movement against the elite establishment, they say, whether it's the mainstream media, pollsters or government agencies. This growing group of renegade traders maintain that core truths emerge only after thousands of people express their opinions with their pocketbooks.

    "Markets are the most efficient way to get to real information," Sudeith said. "If you're watching on election night, I think you'll know who the winners are before the news can report it."

    While the industry may position itself an alternative to the mainstream, the mainstream is embracing it.

    CNN and CNBC have struck deals to incorporate Kalshi prediction markets into coverage. The Wall Street Journal's owner, Dow Jones, is partnering with Polymarket, as did the Golden Globe awards this year, with announcers updating viewers on Polymarket odds before every commercial break.

    Founders of the prediction markets apps say they enable people to turn their opinion into a financial hedge against things like inflation or a government shutdown, yet skeptics say that is twisty and self-serving logic.

    "They are gambling sites no different than FanDuel or DraftKings, a corner bookie or a casino in Las Vegas," said Dennis Kelleher, chief executive of Better Markets, a nonprofit that pushes for Wall Street reform.

    Kalshi says 'there's no house'; not all agree

    Traditional gambling often means wagering against "the house," where the casino acts like the banker, extracting fees and maintaining a competitive edge.

    Prediction markets like Kalshi say they're different.

    Here's how they work: A staff member creates "a market," often after one has been suggested by a user, like what will President Trump say at his next Oval Office briefing?

    Then anyone can propose a "strike," the lingo for a term that's being bet on, whether, for instance, Trump will say "Greenland," or "Minnesota," or some other word or phrase.

    Kalshi staff pick what terms will be bet on for both sides of that "yes" and "no" wager.

    In order to work, however, there needs to be money on both the "yes" and the "no" side of the market, so Kalshi relies on institutional partners, like the hedge fund Susquehanna International, or everyday users with large enough portfolios to front the cash. This is called being a "market maker." Kalshi provides financial perks and data access to traders who do this.

    But because traders are competing with other traders, Kalshi argues there is no house involved in these transactions.

    Several federal lawsuits against Kalshi have challenged this notion, claiming that the Wall Street firms that Kalshi taps are indistinguishable from a traditional "house."

    One suit filed this month in the Northern District of Illinois highlights that the company itself has a separate entity, Kalshi Trading, that supplies cash on the opposite side of trades.

    "Thus, Kalshi users are betting against the house exactly the same way it would in a brick-and-mortar casino," wrote lawyer Russell Busch in the complaint.

    Kalshi denies this. Company spokeswoman Elisabeth Diana told NPR that market makers merely price bids and asks and do not have a competitive advantage.

    "Market making is completely different from being a house because a house has monopoly pricing power, whereas market makers compete with thousands of other market makers to take bids," she said.

    The Trump family invests in prediction markets. The administration is taking a friendly policy stance

    While the Biden administration sought to rein in this industry, Trump's regulators are breaking down barriers to allow it to flourish.

    More than $2 billion is now traded every week on Kalshi, an amount the company says is 1,000% higher compared to the Biden years.

    Polymaket, which was forced in 2022 to shut down in the U.S. for operating as an unlicensed betting site, recently won the Trump administration's blessing to re-launch in the U.S.

    The Trump family is also getting in on the action. The president's son, Donald Trump Jr., is on the board of Polymarket, and his venture capital firm invests in the company. He is also a "strategic adviser" to Kalshi. Truth Social, the president's social media site, is planning to launch its own prediction market called Truth Predict.

    The explosive growth and permissive regulatory environment has ignited a debate about the underbelly of an industry that essentially turns many features of modern life into potential monetary wins and losses. Fears persist that when elections, politics and foreign invasions become a gamble that insiders could abuse their access for profit and market odds could influence what actually happens.

    a white man with dark hair in a blue suit sits on a stage and holds a microphone
    Donald Trump Jr. speaks during The Bitcoin Conference in Las Vegas on May 27, 2025.
    (
    Ian Maule
    /
    Getty Images
    )

    Then there's the most prosaic, but perhaps more immediate worry: That the prediction markets gamify trading with slickly designed apps, one-click checking account deposits and constant push alerts, catering to compulsive online bettors. They're not unlike other app-based trading platforms, but now almost anything is a potential betting opportunity, which economists and other financial experts say can enable a new generation of gambling addicts.

    While individual bets on Kalshi are not public, the app has a leaderboard showcasing top profit winners.

    That offers hope to some traders who turn to Discord and Reddit to discuss how losses have set them back.

    "I'm down 2000 this week when I was up 1200 last week," wrote a Kalshi trader who goes by Educational_Pain_407 on Reddit. "Lost it all and keep trying to claw it back. So I don't know what to tell you but right now I don't have enough to pay my bills in my bank account so I can't bet even if I wanted to."

    There are three federal lawsuits against Kalshi seeking class action status alleging the apps have sucked young traders into gambling addiction.

    Officials at Kalshi have said if traders "lose their shirt that's on them," and even the Reddit user behind on his bills concedes it's a matter of personal responsibility: "Live and learn and pay for your mistakes. The consequences of being an adult," he wrote recently.

    While online sportsbooks and gambling are nothing new, the rapid speed, volume of cash and ease at which transactions flow across prediction market apps set them apart from other forms of betting, according to legal and financial experts.

    "Like sports betting, these platforms can be addictive. It is the adrenaline rush that the target demographic is chasing," said Melinda Roth, a visiting professor at Washington and Lee University's School of Law who studies prediction markets. "I do believe this is a looming public health crisis."

    Decoding the lingo: 'Mogged,' 'Fudded,' 'PMT'

    Evan Semet, 26, is another diehard prediction markets trader who left his salaried position in finance as a quantitative researcher after he started raking in six figures a month on Kalshi."I don't feel the need for another job at the moment," he said.

    His first golden ticket came via bets on the number of Transportation Security Agency screenings that happen across a certain period on Polymarket.

    Semet said he set up a dedicated server through Amazon Web Services to host statistical models that he runs to help him decide where to place bets.

    "It was pretty modelable," he said, noting that he leans on the finance savvy he gleaned at a trading firm to make money on predictions. "Most day traders draw some shapes on a chart and think it has some statistical significance but it's really just astrology," he said. "They're old-school gamblers going off of intuition. I try to be driven by statistics."

    To stay tapped in, he's often toggling between multiple live trades on one screen and following a discussion among other traders on the social network Discord.

    Keeping up on what's happening there requires understanding a hyper-specific type of lingo that's a blend of Generation Alpha and Gen Z slang, repurposed finance terminology and a grab-bag of other cultural influences from gaming to crypto to the gutter humor of fringe sites like 4chan.

    If you've been out-maneuvered by another trader, you've been "mogged."

    two people walk along a city street while in the background a large digital billboard has the words "Mamdani 92% Cuomo 8%" on it
    Advertisements by the company Kalshi predict a victory for Zohran Mamdani in the New York City mayoral election before the polls closed Nov. 4, 2025.
    (
    Olga Fedorova
    /
    AP
    )

    If a market has "fudded," people are selling their positions out of fear, uncertainty and doubt. A "rulescuck" is someone who is a stickler for the rules of a betting market and will try to win on a technicality.

    A "bondsharp" is a well-known community member who frequently puts up money on the other side of a bet.

    These are just a handful of the terms required to stay apace of the chats on Discord, where PMTs are often discussing their full port (prediction market trader, and full portfolio, of course).

    "It is a good amount of terminology. It's borrowing lingo and terms from stuff I've heard at real trading firms mixed with online pop culture," Semet said.

    Prediction market trading can be a compulsive sport for many of them, who admit they can be dopamine junkies. Others prefer to avoid the pressure-cooker feeling of watching a bet win or lose live.

    "It's an antsy, gambling-like feeling watching it all happen live," Semet said. "It's intense, almost feels like the fog of war, trying to decide what to do," he said. "Sometimes I prefer to not look at all and see how I did later."

    How predictions markets got into politics

    Kalshi's big day came, as it were, on Election Day in November 2020.

    That's when they got word that Trump's Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which regulates futures contracts, greenlit it as a "designated contract market," a blessing that essentially gave the platform a license to operate as a financial exchange.

    It was a long time coming.

    For years before that, Kalshi's co-founders Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara, former Wall Street traders who met at MIT, had been battling a skeptical CFTC, which had long rejected similar applications over concerns that an events contract platform would operate a type of gambling outside the purview of state gambling commissions. Regulators also feared the bets invited insiders to rig the outcomes of events from sports to elections.

    As Kalshi hired lawyers and lobbyists leading up to their CFTC approval, another prediction market, where most are betting with cryptocurrencies, Polymarket, was exploding in growth. It, however, had not bothered to even try to receive federal buy-in. The Biden administration shut down the exchange for operating without a license. Now, Polymarket has the CFTC on its side, and is staging a U.S. comeback.

    Two developments helped Polymarket's return: the company acquired a little-known derivatives exchange QCX, which had already obtained CFTC approval. And the Trump administration's CTFC and Justice Department abandoned investigations into Polymarket.

    States, however, are on the attack. Massachusetts has sued to push Kalshi out of the state. Eight other states, including New York, New Jersey and Maryland, have sent the company cease and desist letters alleging that it is operating as an illegal and unlicensed sports gambling site. The motivation is clear: Gambling brings in serious tax revenue for states, while prediction markets bring in none.

    For both Kalshi and Polymarket, one of the most controversial areas of prediction market trading is elections, an issue Biden-era regulators took Kalshi to court over.

    Under the 1936 Commodity Exchange Act, which was updated in 2008 after the financial crisis, future event contracts cannot involve terrorism, assassinations or "games," but political betting is not explicitly banned.

    Biden administration lawyers argued that placing wagers on races amounted to a game, a word that is not defined at all in the law. Election bets, the regulators contended, could turbocharge the spread of political misinformation and create financial incentives for voters to cast a ballot even when it's contrary to a voter's political views.

    It also puts the CFTC in the awkward position of having to investigate news, whether real or fabricated, that moves a prediction market. Former CFTC officials told NPR that the agency has never been equipped to be "an election cop."

    The federal appeals court in Washington, D.C. rejected that framing and handed Kalshi a major victory. The court also pointed out that the harm these markets would cause the government was not "concrete" enough.

    The Trump administration dropped the appeal, unleashing what is expected to be an unprecedented torrent of prediction market cash into this year's midterm elections, which is raising alarms among those pushing for stricter regulations on this industry.

    "AI, deepfakes, and other nefarious activities to attack candidates could easily impact the betting activity and odds, as well as the actual outcome of elections," said Kelleher of Better Markets. "They don't really care who wins or loses. They only care about the volume of bets and driving that volume as high as possible."

    Regulators appear unprepared. The CFTC usually has five commissioners but currently only has one. Meanwhile, Kalshi's board includes former CFTC Commissioner Brian Quintenz, who was among the officials who gave the platform its federal approval in 2020.

    Former CFTC Commissioner Kristin Johnson, who left the agency in 2025, said that lack of commissioners comes on top of high levels of turnover among the most senior staff lawyers.

    "We're essentially asking the CFTC to get involved in engaging and policing an element of our democratic process that we really haven't thought carefully enough about," Johnson said.

    Insider trading scrutiny grows

    Before a U.S. operation ousted Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, one trader on Polymarket banked a nearly half-million-dollar profit on a bet Maduro would not remain president for long.

    While the trader's identity remains a mystery, speculation continues to rattle around the internet about whether the person had insider information. The episode has renewed scrutiny on how the companies ensure bets aren't rigged.

    On Discord, when traders see a large bet placed that immediately stands out as an outlier, cries of "the market is insidered" are common. Proving it is another matter.

    As is often the case on the platforms, open-shut evidence of insider trading is elusive. Kalshi requires a government-issued ID to sign up in order to trace any possible market manipulation back to a real person. Polymarket does not, but it has yet to publicly re-launch its U.S. app. Internal and third-party surveillance tools, the companies say, are on the lookout for unusual activity.

    Congress has begun to take notice. Following the Maduro trade, Rep. Ritchie Torres, D-NY, and 30 other Democrats, sponsored legislation banning federal officials from using prediction markets to trade on policies or political outcomes using non-public information.

    Being up against an insider is always a risk, said full-time prediction markets trader Semet.

    "There's always going to be someone who has more information than you, unless you're the insider," he said. "There are certain accounts that miraculously have every single Google and OpenAI release date nailed perfectly, and it's like, all right, just don't fade those people," he said using the slang word for voting against another trader.

    When asked if he thinks Kalshi and Polymarket are doing enough to combat insider trading, he gave a blunt assessment: "F*** no," Semet said. "I really don't think they care."

    "Tailing," or making a bet joining in on a suspiciously large bet is common on the platforms. Bloomberg on Monday reported on a new tool that allows traders to get alerts when anomalous transactions occur so they can potentially cash in on what could be a winning wager.

    From the vantage point of these traders, nearly everything has a trading implication.

    And that kind of thinking can fuel conspiratorial theories about why something did or did not happen.

    Take, for instance, a recent White House press briefing in which press secretary Karoline Leavitt left the room seconds before hitting 65 minutes. To most, that was unremarkable.

    Yet on Kalshi, that looked like a secret message, because many thousands of dollars in bets were at stake that she would cross the 65-minute mark.

    The chatter about Leavitt was mentioned on CNBC, which got the attention of traders on Discord, who wondered if this or another incident will ever lead to a PMT, prediction market trader, testifying in Washington about rigging the markets.

    "PMT getting called before Congress," wrote a Discord user, whose handle is "permanent resident of hell," they added: "Let's get a market on it."

  • Settlement reached over emergency insurance hikes
    The charred remains of homes where support beans and a staircase are left on a beach.
    The rubble of homes that burned down on Pacific Coast Highway near Malibu as a result of the Palisades Fire.

    Topline:

    State Farm reaches settlement over emergency insurance rate hikes after last year’s Los Angeles County fires.

    Why it matters: State Farm, the largest insurer in the state with about 20% market share, received approval for unprecedented emergency insurance rate increases in California last May. The company told the state that the billions of dollars it expected to pay out after the deadly fires placed it in financial peril.

    Why now: The proposed deal among the state Insurance Department, consumer advocacy group Consumer Watchdog and State Farm, disclosed late last week, comes after months of public hearings convened by the insurance department and settlement talks.

    Read on... for more from the proposed settlement.

    The Los Angeles County fires last year drove up insurance costs for many Californians. Now, a proposed settlement means some State Farm policyholders whose premiums rose won’t see additional increases, and others should even get refunds.

    State Farm, the largest insurer in the state with about 20% market share, received approval for unprecedented emergency insurance rate increases in California last May. The company told the state that the billions of dollars it expected to pay out after the deadly fires placed it in financial peril.

    The proposed deal among the state Insurance Department, consumer advocacy group Consumer Watchdog and State Farm, disclosed late last week, comes after months of public hearings convened by the insurance department and settlement talks.

    Consumer Watchdog, which questioned the rate increases State Farm asked for, says the settlement saves the company’s California policyholders a total of $530 million. From the proposed settlement:

    • Homeowners’ rate hikes will stay at the previously approved interim rate of 17% instead of the 30% the company sought.
    • Condo owners who saw interim rate hikes of 15% will see their rates drop to an increase of 5.8%, and get refunds with interest dating back to June 1, 2025.
    • Rental unit owners with interim rate hikes of 38% will see those increases drop to 32.8%, and receive refunds with interest. 
    • Renter policyholders will see an increase of 15.65% vs. the interim rate hike of 15%.

    In addition, State Farm has agreed not to cancel any new policies this year, and it won’t be canceling some policies it had planned not to renew in wildfire-affected areas. The insurance department characterized those provisions as important to the continued stability of the state’s insurance market, which has been beset with availability and affordability issues.

    “When consumer advocates are able to challenge the data and present their own analysis, excessive requests are reduced and consumers are protected,” said Harvey Rosenfield in a statement. Rosenfield founded Consumer Watchdog and wrote Proposition 103, the voter-approved law that governs insurance in California.

    State Farm has paid out more than $5 billion in claims from the L.A.-area fires so far, said spokesperson Tom Hartmann.

    After consumer complaints and lawsuits, the insurance department is investigating the company’s handling of claims from the fires and expects results from that examination later this spring.

    The agreement, which must be approved by an administrative law judge, also requires State Farm to undergo additional review of its rates in 2027. The company will be required to make a one time 2.5% premium discount available to renewing policyholders if its ratio of premiums to available cash reaches a certain level; Consumer Watchdog litigation director Will Pletcher said the deal will give the group more timely access to the company’s annual financial statements to help keep it accountable.

    The insurance department expects the judge to decide on the settlement by April 7. Insurance Commissioner Ricardo Lara will then review the judge’s decision and have the final say.

    This article was originally published on CalMatters and was republished under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives license.

  • Sponsored message
  • Purported first statement from Supreme Leader

    Topline:

    Iran's state media issued what it said was a statement by Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, vowing to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed and keep up attacks on U.S. bases in the region, as the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran entered its 13th day.


    The Strait of Hormuz: The Iranian statement said the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping route for a fifth of the world's oil supply, should remain closed. It said Iran continues to believe in friendship with its neighbors but will continue targeting U.S. bases in the region. "The lever of blocking the Strait of Hormuz must undoubtedly continue to be used.," the statement said, according to an English version published by Tasnim News Agency, run by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard.

    Unclear of statement's authenticity: It was purported to be the new leader's first statement since he succeeded his father Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in an Israeli strike on the first day of the war. It's unclear if the statement was from Mojtaba Khamenei himself. There's been speculation about the leader's current condition and whereabouts. An Israeli official, speaking on condition of anonymity because they weren't authorized to speak publicly, told NPR that Khamenei was lightly injured early in the war.

    Iran's state media issued what it said was a statement by Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, vowing to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed and keep up attacks on U.S. bases in the region, as the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran entered its 13th day.

    It was purported to be the new leader's first statement since he succeeded his father Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in an Israeli strike on the first day of the war.

    The statement said Iran will avenge the blood of its "martyrs," including the victims of a March 1 attack on a girls school in the city of Minab, which Iranian officials say killed at least 165 people, many of them children. NPR has confirmed the U.S. military is investigating how it could have targeted the school.

    The Iranian statement said the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping route for a fifth of the world's oil supply, should remain closed. It said Iran continues to believe in friendship with its neighbors but will continue targeting U.S. bases in the region.

    "The lever of blocking the Strait of Hormuz must undoubtedly continue to be used.," the statement said, according to an English version published by Tasnim News Agency, run by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard.

    It's unclear if the statement was from Mojtaba Khamenei himself. Another person was heard reading out the remarks on Iranian state media, with a photo of Khamenei posted on the TV screen, as it was broadcast around the world.

    There's been speculation about the leader's current condition and whereabouts. An Israeli official, speaking on condition of anonymity because they weren't authorized to speak publicly, told NPR that Khamenei was lightly injured early in the war.

    This is a developing story that will be updated.


    Here are other major updates about the conflict.

    To jump to specific areas of coverage, use the links below:

    Attacks on vessels | Oil stockpiles | Strikes across the Gulf | Israel-Hezbollah escalation | Iranian school attack


    Two oil tankers hit in Iraqi waters

    Two oil tankers were hit in Iraqi territorial waters near the southern port area of Basra, Iraqi officials said Thursday. It is the first oil-related strike reported in Iraq's waters during more than a week of war, in another sign of the conflict's escalation.

    Iran, a critical ally of Iraq, took responsibility for attacking one of the tankers, which it said was owned by the U.S.

    A port official said the attack targeted vessels near Basra's port approaches, and Iraq's security spokesman described it as sabotage.

    Iraqi officials said one person was killed, and 38 crew members were rescued, with search operations continuing.

    Iran has stepped up attacks on energy infrastructure and commercial shipping in response to U.S. and Israeli strikes, warning that the world should brace for oil prices to double.

    — Jane Arraf


    U.S. and allies to release record oil stockpiles  

    The U.S. confirmed it will release 172 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve as part of a coordinated International Energy Agency (IEA) release of 400 million barrels from emergency stockpiles.

    The U.S. contribution amounts to roughly 40% of the total, to be released gradually over about four months.

    The IEA's executive director, Fatih Birol, said the goal is to keep the supply of oil flowing as the conflict disrupts shipping routes and energy infrastructure. But analysts warn stockpile releases can only partially offset prolonged disruption in the Gulf, where roughly a fifth of global oil consumption normally transits the Strait of Hormuz.

    On Wednesday, President Trump said the price spike is temporary and said the reserve release would push prices down.

    According to the popular app Gas Buddy, the current average cost of regular unleaded is now up to $3.61 a gallon.

    - Camila Domonoske


    Iran continues attacks on Gulf States

    Countries in the Gulf reported new incoming threats and interceptions Thursday, as Iran continued firing drones and missiles across the region – including at U.S. military bases.

    The UAE's defense ministry said air defenses were responding to Iranian missile and drone attacks, and that sounds heard in parts of the country were from intercepts.

    Kuwait's defense ministry said its air defenses intercepted ballistic missiles and drones that penetrated the northern and southern parts of the country's airspace.

    Saudi Arabia said it intercepted and destroyed drones headed toward the Shaybah oil field.

    The United Nations Security Council adopted a resolution on Wednesday condemning Iran for recent attacks across the Persian Gulf region, calling them a "breach of international law" and "a serious threat to international peace and security."

    - Rebecca Rosman


    Israel launches large strikes on Hezbollah sites in Beirut after rocket fire into Israel

    People inspect homes damaged by a projectile launched from Lebanon, in Haniel central Israel, on Thursday.
    (
    Baz Ratner
    /
    AP
    )

    The militant group Hezbollah launched its biggest rocket attack against Israel since the start of the war with Iran. The Israeli military said the Iranian-backed group fired heavy volleys toward northern Israel overnight into Thursday, triggering interceptions and sending residents repeatedly into shelters.

    The Israeli military responded by launching more attacks against what it said were Hezbollah launch sites and command infrastructure.

    Huge booms were heard across the capital and large black smoke billowed from the Dahieh neighborhood in south Beirut, while an attack in central Beirut – where thousands of people are displaced – killed 8 people and injured 31, according to Lebanese officials.

    Wide evacuation orders for south Lebanon and Beirut's southern suburbs have displaced at least 800,000 people so far, according to the Lebanese government.

    Lebanon, which does not have diplomatic ties with Israel, has unusually called for direct talks with Israel to end the escalating fighting with Hezbollah. Israel has not officially responded.

    Israeli strikes on Iran have continued, with Iran firing missiles at Israel intermittently, including overnight.

    Israeli military officials say about half of the missiles Iran has launched at Israel have carried cluster warheads, which spread out into smaller bombs over a wider area – increasing the risk to civilians.

    - Daniel Estrin, Hadeel Al-Shalchi and Rebecca Rosman


    Pentagon: Preliminary assessment suggests U.S. likely responsible for strike on Iranian school

    The Pentagon has opened a formal investigation into the missile strike on an Iranian girls school that killed at least 165 civilians, many of them children, after a preliminary assessment suggested the U.S. was at fault, according to a U.S. official who was not authorized to speak publicly. The investigation is expected to take months and will include interviews with all those involved, from planners and commanders to those who carried out the strike.

    If a U.S. role in the attack is confirmed, it would rank among the military's most deadly incidents involving civilians in decades. Congress created a special Pentagon office to prevent the accidental targeting of civilians but it was dramatically scaled back by Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth soon after he took office last year.

    "This investigation is ongoing. As we have said, unlike the terrorist Iranian regime, the United States does not target civilians," said White House spokesperson Anna Kelly.

    The Pentagon did not respond to a request for comment.

    NPR previously reported — based on commercial satellite imagery and independent expert analysis — that the strike was more extensive than initially reported and appeared consistent with a precision strike on a nearby military complex, raising questions about whether outdated targeting information contributed to the tragedy.

    - Tom Bowman, Kat Lonsdorf, Geoff Brumfiel

    Rebecca Rosman contributed to this report from Paris, Jane Arraf from Erbil, Iraq, Hadeel Al-Shalchi from Beirut, Daniel Estrin from Tel Aviv and Camila Domonoske, Tom Bowman, Kat Lonsdorf and Geoff Brumfiel from Washington.
    Copyright 2026 NPR

  • Mural hits a bump on its way to K-town
    LAFC forward Son Heung-min, a man with medium skin tone, wearing a black and gold-striped soccer jersey, smiles as he gives an "LA" sign with his hands.
    LAFC forward Son Heung-min during a MLS match between FC Dallas and the Los Angeles Football Club at Toyota Stadium.

    Topline:

    If you’re a soccer fan — or just a fan of South Korean phenom Son Heung-min — you may have heard that the Los Angeles Football Club planned to put up a larger-than-life mural of the footballer in Koreatown last month. But the mural has yet to appear.

    More details: LAFC planned to reveal the mural during the launch of their 2026/2027 jersey at The LINE Hotel. Now the reveal has been pushed back to sometime in June.

    Why now: The delay stems from issues with the city’s mural approval process, at least according to city officials.

    Read on... for more about the mural of Son Heung-min.

    The story first appeared on The LA Local.

    If you’re a soccer fan — or just a fan of South Korean phenom Son Heung-min — you may have heard that the Los Angeles Football Club planned to put up a larger-than-life mural of the footballer in Koreatown last month. But the mural has yet to appear. 

    LAFC planned to reveal the mural during the launch of their 2026/2027 jersey at The LINE Hotel. Now the reveal has been pushed back to sometime in June. 

    The delay stems from issues with the city’s mural approval process, at least according to city officials. 

    Gabriel Cifarelli, a spokesperson for the Los Angeles Department of Cultural Affairs, said they received a mural registration application for the site. But the department said it could not issue a notice to proceed because the application was “ineligible and incomplete” under the city’s mural ordinance and administrative rules.

    “DCA staff offered the applicant advice and further guidance, and remains available for questions,” Cifarelli said. 

    If a mural includes a team logo it is considered an advertisement and not original artwork, according to the city department. In that case, the permit must be issued through the city’s Building and Safety Department.

    A new application has not been submitted through the mural program, Cifarelli said, and it was not immediately clear whether LAFC applied for a permit through the Building and Safety Department. 

    LAFC spokesperson Danny Sanchez didn’t confirm if a new permit has been submitted.

    “The mural unveil was rescheduled to June to better align with World Cup festivities,” Sanchez said. 

    Dave Young Kim was commissioned to paint the mural and previously painted a Son mural on the side of the Crosby building in Koreatown in October, but that was only up for a few weeks.

    He still plans to paint the mural on The LINE Hotel in June.

    “I’m assuming at this point, LAFC is likely trying to line it up for a more opportune time,” said Kim. “The mural was originally supposed to line up with the launch of the new jersey so something similar.”

    Leo Hernandez, 35, said he hopes the mural goes up before the World Cup.

    “I didn’t know it was pushed back all the way to June,” he said. “I’ll be in Mexico for the World Cup.”

    Hernandez, who goes by “El Soccer Guy” on Instagram and has nearly 50,000 followers, has been attending LAFC games since 2018. He said Son’s arrival to L.A. has brought a new wave of fans to the club.

    “I’ve never seen so many Koreans,” he said. “He’s bringing a whole new community to LAFC. I don’t know if they love soccer or they love Son or both, but it’s amazing to see.”

    “Son is starting to be my favorite on the team,” he added. “He’s so good. He wants the team to shine. And I love his positivity and energy.” 

  • Real locations ground the MCU show
    A Black man (L) and an older white man (R) stand facing each other at what looks like a lookout point facing a downtown area. The tops of trees are in the foreground, behind a metal fence. Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, with short black hair and a beard, is the man on the left, standing with one arm on the black metal railing and another on his hip. He is wearing jeans, socks, and a gray sweatshirt. He is talking to Ben Kingsley on the right, who is wearing a burgundy blazer with pocket square and navy blue pants and brown leather shoes. He has a gray goatee and shoulder length hair and has his right hand outstretched, facing down.
    Yahya Abdul-Mateen II and Ben Kingsley in a scene from “Wonder Man.”

    Topline:

    There’s a lot of real Los Angeles mixed into the recent MCU series “Wonder Man,” now on Disney+, which makes for a version of the MCU that feels a little more grounded in reality, especially for Angelenos.

    The context: Wonder Man is an action-comedy about two struggling actors also dealing with superhuman forces and secret government agencies — think The Studio meets Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. It's part of the Marvel Universe, but also feels accessible to viewers not that familiar with the MCU. Showrunner Andrew Guest told LAist that was by design, and was helped by grounding the show in an realistic portrayal of life in Los Angeles.

    Read on ... for more about the real L.A. locations featured in Season 1, and why a Season 2 (if it does happen) might film elsewhere.

    The Marvel Cinematic Universe is all about people with superpowers living in a world very much like our own.

    And there’s a lot of real Los Angeles mixed into the recent MCU series “Wonder Man,” now on Disney+, which makes for a version of the MCU that feels a little more grounded in reality, especially for Angelenos.

    It's an action-comedy about two struggling actors also dealing with superhuman forces and secret government agencies. Think The Studio meets Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D.

    Sir Ben Kingsley reprises his Iron Man 3 character Trevor Slattery, the messy British actor hired to play a bad guy called The Mandarin. And Yahya Abdul-Mateen II plays Simon Williams, aka Wonder Man.

    Through their adventures trying to book the gig-of-a-lifetime while surviving the perils of the MCU, L.A. landmarks and cultural references abound, and ground the series in a relatability for many Angelenos, including lots of inside jokes for those working in the entertainment industry.

    3 cultural references that make Wonder Man feel like real Los Angeles

    Historic places, some we’ve had to part with

    There’s a series of roughly 100-year-old small, independent movie houses used as locations in Wonder Man — the Eagle Theatre now home to Vidiots, Westwood's Village Theater now operated by American Cinematheque (with views of The Bruin Theater across the street), and the Highland Theatre which closed in 2024.

    A close up on a Black man wearing a black turtleneck, a red blazer, and sunglasses with red colored lenses. The back of a the head of a woman with black wavy hair is visible to the right and he is looking at her. Behind him a neon sign reads "Bruin."
    A scene from 'Wonder Man' on Disney +.
    (
    Marvel Television
    )

    Speaking of iconic L.A. spots breaking local hearts, the vintage bar within Echo Park’s Taix French Restaurant was used as an interior location for the series. Taix is closing at the end of the month to make way for new development.

    “Taix, the Highland Park Theatre — these places that it was only three years ago were there,” Wonder Man showrunner Andrew Guest told LAist, “a lot of these establishments sadly, are not surviving. And this town is in a rough, rough place.”

    (Though actor/director Kristen Stewart recently said in an interview with Architectural Digest that she bought The Highland Theatre and is restoring the building.)

    L.A. traffic (especially around the Hollywood Bowl on a performance night)

    Traffic is part of life in Los Angeles and with so many scenes shot in Hollywood, even the main characters of Wonder Man must experience that bumper-to-bumper frustration.

    Though, because it is a TV show, they were able to indulge in the fantasy of beating that traffic in a way that in reality would be highly dangerous (and illegal).

    “We got to shut down Sunset Boulevard for a little while to shoot a car going onto the sidewalk in front of the Palladium,” said Guest. And surprisingly, he explained, they didn’t have to shoot in the middle of the night to make the shot happen: “That was Friday night…. We didn't close all lanes of traffic. The street was open. We were shooting while Los Angeles was still going strong.”

    The scene also references the frequent traffic back up during big shows at the Hollywood Bowl, even earning the show a social media repost of the scene from Chaka Khan.

    Having family and friends 45 minutes away, who you rarely visit

    Wonder Man includes an episode titled Pacoima where the main character visits his family and childhood home.

    “My wife grew up in Chatsworth, and one of the things I found fascinating about her experience growing up there was that many of her friends and their families never went to Los Angeles,” said Guest.

    “The idea that Simon grew up close to, but far enough away that Hollywood and Los Angeles did not feel like they were part of his life…so when he moved to the city, Pacoima is not a place he goes to a lot. And I feel like that's a part of L.A. that is true to this city. That doesn't get explored a lot and felt like it was another detail that we got to sort of throw into the show.”

    There’s lots of other Southern California. references to enjoy from the Talmadge Apartments, an historic renaissance revival building on Wilshire Blvd., a mural of Danny Trejo, and even a cameo from Gisellle Fernandes, real-life L.A. broadcaster for Spectrum 1 News.

    Should you get lost in the multi-verse, at least this L.A will be pretty familiar.

    BONUS: Could there be a Season 2 of Wonder Man? And would it still be set in L.A.?

    Guest couldn’t confirm anything about a possible Season 2, but told LAist, “It’s still on the table as an option, potentially."

    As for whether a potential Season 2 would also film in Los Angeles and continue to highlight the city in new ways, Guest said it’s occurred to him that one of the best ways to write about Hollywood could be “ to send our show somewhere else because everybody in this town who's working has to move — whether it be Budapest or London or Ireland or Vancouver — very little is actually happening in this town. And that’s a story that I don’t think is being told right now about L.A.”

    Season 1 of ‘Wonder Man’ is now streaming on Disney+.

    Watch Julia Paskin's interview with actor/comedian X Mayo, who plays Simon Williams' agent in 'Wonder Man':