Federal agents raided the family home of O.C. Supervisor Andrew Do and his wife, O.C. Superior Court Assistant Presiding Judge Cheri Pham, on Aug. 22, 2024.
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Adolfo Guzman-Lopez
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LAist
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Topline:
Federal agents on Thursday raided the family home of O.C. Supervisor Andrew Do and his wife — OC Superior Court Assistant Presiding Judge Cheri Pham — as well as a home owned by their daughter Rhiannon Do and multiple properties connected to an LAist investigation into millions of tax dollars that have gone unaccounted for.
The background: The action comes after nine months of LAist investigative stories revealing the large scale of taxpayer money O.C. Supervisor Andrew Do quietly directed to VAS and the group’s refusals to account to county demands for how it spent it. In total, LAist has uncovered over $13 million in public money that Supervisor Do approved for the nonprofit, which its government filings show was led on and off by Rhiannon Do, his 23-year-old daughter. Supervisor Do directed most of the funds on his own authority.
Go deeper: Read more from the investigation, which started in November 2023 here.
Federal agents on Thursday searched the family home of O.C. Supervisor Andrew Do and his wife — O.C. Superior Court Assistant Presiding Judge Cheri Pham — as well as a home owned by their daughter Rhiannon Do and multiple properties connected to an LAist investigation into millions of tax dollars that have gone unaccounted for.
A spokesperson for the IRS Criminal Investigation division confirmed they were involved in the searches along with the FBI and U.S. Attorney’s Office.
The search warrants were executed for Rhiannon Do’s Tustin home; a North Tustin family home that real estate records show is owned by Cheri Pham and Supervisor Do; a Garden Grove home that public records show is owned by Peter Pham, the founder of Viet America Society (VAS); and a Fountain Valley home that government filings show is the business address for VAS — the nonprofit Orange County officials sued earlier this month for alleged fraud.
A neighbor told an LAist reporter on the scene that over a dozen black cars were parked on the street around the North Tustin house of Supervisor Do and Cheri Pham at the time of the raid.
A federal agent at the family home of O.C. Supervisor Andrew Do and his wife, O.C. Superior Court Assistant Presiding Judge Cheri Pham, on Aug. 22, 2024.
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Adolfo Guzman-Lopez
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LAist
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A spokesperson for the FBI confirmed they served search warrants at the homes. “The affidavit in support of the search warrant is under seal and so we’re prohibited from commenting as to the nature of the case. No arrests planned,” Laura Eimiller said.
Rhiannon Do’s Tustin home was named in the fraud lawsuit filed last week by Orange County officials, calling on VAS to return millions in taxpayer dollars. The lawsuit alleges that a fraud scheme involving Rhiannon Do, other VAS leaders, Aloha Financial Investment and its president Thu Thao Thi Vu, who owns the Fountain Valley home raided Thursday.
Vu’s name also appears on the grant deed for Rhiannon Do’s home purchase, as someone who should receive a copy once it’s officially recorded. Financial records obtained by LAist show that a large portion of county funds sent to VAS were routed to Perfume River Restaurant in Westminster, which is owned by Vu’s company, Aloha Financial Investment. Two VAS leaders have also held leadership roles at Aloha, according to records LAist obtained.
Shoppers pass Perfume River Restaurant & Lounge, which appeared closed, inside of the Asian Garden shopping mall, also known as Phước Lộc Thọ, in Westminster in April 2024.
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Brian Feinzimer
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LAist
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The FBI confirmed that it was involved in the raid on the Perfume River Restaurant, located in the Asian Garden Mall in Westminster. An IRS spokesperson, however, said the agency did not join in that operation.
Rhiannon Do and Peter Pham are among those accused in the county’s lawsuit of a fraud scheme to divert funds intended to feed needy seniors and build a war memorial, to instead pay for million-dollar homes and improvements to the homes.
Requests for comment were not returned by Supervisor Do, Rhiannon Do or Peter Pham. Peter Pham told the Los Angeles Times on Thursday that the situation was a "misunderstanding" and that he "didn't do anything wrong."
An O.C. Superior Court spokesperson said Cheri Pham is unable to comment due to California judicial ethics rules barring judges from commenting on law enforcement actions or pending court cases.
On Friday, David Wiechert, an attorney who said he had been retained to represent Rhiannon Do, told LAist Rhiannon Do is a "very honest, law-abiding, hardworking young woman."
"It’s our intention to demonstrate to the government the error of their ways if they think she’s done something wrong,” he said.
The raid of Rhiannon Do’s home in Tustin
An LAist reporter saw at least six law enforcement officers outside Rhiannon Do’s home and around the front doorway Thursday morning. Around 11:20 a.m., an LAist reporter at the scene overheard a law enforcement agent say Rhiannon Do was inside the home. Law enforcement officers were inside at the time as well. A neighbor told LAist that he saw Rhiannon Do come in with the agents when they first entered the house earlier this morning.
Law enforcement at a house purchased by Rhiannon Do in Tustin.
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Jill Replogle
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LAist
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The IRS’ criminal division was involved in the raid on Rhiannon Do’s house. Most of the agents observed by LAist wore black shirts with "POLICE IRS-CI" printed on the back. An LAist reporter also overheard an agent telling a private investigator that they were with IRS' criminal investigation division.
A spokesperson for the Orange County District Attorney’s Office confirmed they were involved in the raids but declined to comment further.
Rhiannon Do purchased the home last year for $1.035 million, according to Zillow and real estate records reviewed by LAist.
Law enforcement near a Tustin house that Rhiannon Do, the daughter of O.C. Supervisor Andrew Do, purchased.
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Jill Replogle
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LAist
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Larry Thomas, who lives next door to the house, told LAist around 9:45 a.m. that officers were standing guard outside. He said he was hearing what he described as “slamming and quite a bit of noise” from inside the house.
A photo obtained by LAist shows what appears to be an evidence marker in front of a small structure on the property. The white rectangular sign states “ROOM P.” An LAist reporter overheard an agent next to the home say, "Remember, you’re looking for documents.” An agent also noted finding a large amount of Christmas decorations.
Farzin Noohi, a private investigator, who said he was working with Rhiannon Do's lawyer, speaks to law enforcement in Tustin as the raid was underway.
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Jill Replogle
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LAist
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Shortly before 1:30 p.m., an agent exited the house with two large rectangular boxes and drove away.
Federal agents were at the Tustin home for nearly eight hours.
At one point, agents came out and put a file folder, three file boxes and a black trash bag, half full, into a car.
Shortly after 5 p.m. an LAist reporter saw five agents exit the home and leave in five separate vehicles.
Supervisor Do and Rhiannon Do have been in and out of the house in recent days, Thomas told LAist on Wednesday. Rhiannon in particular, he said, has been in and out of the house more in the last 48 hours than in the year-plus since buying it.
Earlier this week, Thomas told LAist that there have been no signs anyone ever moved into the home, in the year or so since Rhiannon Do bought it.
He said that in the first few months after the purchase, a significant amount of work appeared to be done on the house, including the sound of electric saws.
“You could hear, every day, hammers and saws and heavy equipment,” Thomas said.
The backstory
LAist revealed last December that the nonprofit, Viet America Society, had failed to account for what happened with millions of dollars in taxpayer money Do had provided the group.
Rhiannon Do in a YouTube video posted in August 2021 by the Steinberg Institute where she was an intern.
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Screenshot via YouTube
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In response to LAist’s questions in April about the funding her father directed to the nonprofit and the home purchase, Rhiannon Do did not answer if any county funds provided to her nonprofit were used to purchase the home. She denied that anything improper took place and said she worked hard for her home.
After the county gave the nonprofit months of opportunities this year to provide required proof, it ended up filing a lawsuit last week alleging a sweeping fraud scheme to divert money that was meant to feed vulnerable seniors during the pandemic. Among the county’s allegations are that funding was illegally diverted to buying multiple homes, including Rhiannon Do’s home in Tustin.
Supervisor Do has not responded to LAist’s requests for comment over the last nine months. He has denied any wrongdoing in interviews with other media. State law does not require the disclosure of his family tie to the nonprofit he funded with taxpayer money. The state Legislature is advancing a bill that would change that.
Responses to the searches
Santa Ana CityCouncilmember Thai Viet Phan, the first Vietnamese American elected to the council, called for the “immediate resignation” of Supervisor Do.
“While innocent until proven guilty, Supervisor Do has lost the trust of our community and should not retain power over a $9.3 billion budget,” Phan said.
Community organizations VietRISE and Harbor Institute for Immigrant & Economic Justice also called for the resignation of Supervisor Andrew Do.
“Residents continue to face skyrocketing rents, evictions, and homelessness, yet Supervisor Do used his position to divert taxpayer dollars towards million-dollar properties for his own family and friends,” the statement from both organizations said. “Supervisor Do has failed the residents of his own District, including the working-class immigrants and refugees of Little Saigon.”
State Sen. Dave Min issued a statement saying he was glad federal authorities were investigating allegations of public corruption in Orange County.
“For too long, Orange County has been seen as a place where corruption and abuse of the public trust are part of the political culture,” he said.
Min’s Rebuilding Public Trust Act, which was inspired by LAist’s reporting, is currently awaiting Gov. Gavin Newsom’s signature and would require elected officials to recuse themselves from votes that would award government contracts to their family members. He said he hoped the raids would be motivation for the governor to sign the legislation.
Orange County Supervisor Katrina Foley said she anticipates the raids will “uncover additional evidence that proves the brazen criminal conspiracy by these individuals who stole millions to enrich themselves instead of feeding hungry, disabled seniors.”
Meeting coming up next week
The O.C. Board of Supervisors is scheduled to meet Tuesday for their regularly scheduled meeting.
Attend in person: The Board of Supervisors meets in the County Administration North, Board Hearing Room, First Floor, 400 W Civic Center Dr, Santa Ana.
Listen to the meeting via phone: Call (866) 590-5055. Access code: 4138489
To submit a comment, you can attend in person, dial in or submit a comment via email to response@ocgov.com.
Catch up on the investigation
In November 2023, LAist began investigating how millions in public taxpayer dollars were spent. In total, LAist has uncovered over $13 million in public money was approved to a little-known nonprofit that records state was led on and off by Rhiannon Do, the now 23-year-old daughter of Supervisor Do. Most of that money was directed to the group by Supervisor Do outside of the public’s view and never appeared on public meeting agendas. He did not publicly disclose his family ties.
Much of the known funding came from federal coronavirus relief money.
Since we started reporting, we’ve also uncovered the group was two years overdue in completing a required audit into whether the meal funds were spent appropriately.
And we found the amount of taxpayer money directed to the nonprofit was much larger than initially known. It totals at least $13.5 million in county funding — tallied from government records obtained and published by LAist.
After our reporting, O.C. officials wrote demand letters to the nonprofit saying millions in funding were unaccounted for. They warned it could be forced to repay the funds.
And, we found the nonprofit missed a deadline set by county officials to provide proof about how funding for meals were spent.
On Aug. 2, LAist reported O.C. officials were demanding the refund of more than $3 million in public funds awarded by Do to VAS and another nonprofit, Hand to Hand.
Six days later, LAist reported Orange County officials had expanded demands for refunds of millions in tax dollars from the nonprofits and threatened legal action.
Then, on Aug. 19, LAist reported O.C. officials had announced a second lawsuit against Hand to Hand and its CEO to recover millions of taxpayer dollars that were directed by Supervisor Do.
The chemical tank at the GKN Garden Grove aerospace facility.
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Allen J. Schaben/Los Angeles Times via Getty Imag
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Los Angeles Times
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Topline:
On Monday clean up begins for two tanks of neutralized methyl methacrylate at the center of last month’s chemical incident in Garden Grove.
The backstory: About 50,000 Orange County residents were evacuated for several days after one of the tanks overheated on May 21, generating fears of an explosion or a leak through the Memorial Day weekend.
What's next: The cleanup will be done in phases. This phase wraps Thursday, July 2.
A hazardous materials team will begin working Monday to remove neutralized methyl methacrylate from two of three tanks at the GKN aerospace facility in Garden Grove.
Some 50,000 Orange County residents were evacuated for several days last month after one of the tanks overheated on May 21, causing fears of an explosion or a leak through the Memorial Day weekend.
The clean-up will be done in phases, until Thursday, “with multiple layers of safety protocols and oversight measures in place,” according to a press release from the Orange County Health Care Agency.
Garden Grove chemical cleanup
Updates on the cleanup activities will be posted publicly here, including air monitoring data.
Containers that support temperature control and secure transportation will be used in the operation.
Cleanup was initially scheduled to begin June 4, but was postponed after officials said "needed resources" were unavailable.
Orange County District Attorney Todd Spitzer launched an investigation into the incident last month. The FBI and Environmental Protection Agency also seized evidence at the facility earlier this month.
Methyl methacrylate produces a fruit-like odor, Orange County Health Care Agency said residents may notice the scent during the operation. The agency said levels will remain below thresholds that could pose health risks.
Officials say environmental protection will be in place throughout the week. Air will be continuously monitored through both mobile and fixed equipment at the fence line of the facility and in the community. Air and odor monitoring based on wind conditions will also be done. Work will occur only during the daylight hours until Thursday.
Incarcerated people study to take the G.E.D. exam at San Quentin State Prison on July 26, 2023.
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Semantha Norris
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CalMatters
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Topline:
California prisons are limiting access to programs for incarcerated people as the system manages it overtime budget. The state spends about $18 billion a year on corrections.
Why now: The rollback began earlier this month and will end June 30, according to documents obtained by CalMatters. Corrections spokesperson Terri Hardy described the limitations as a “cost-saving measure.” The department’s overall budget has remained about flat since 2022 around $18 billion a year despite recent cuts that include five prison closures.
The backstory: Lawmakers at budget hearings earlier this year pressed Corrections Secretary Jeff Macomber to tighten spending as the department asked for additional $91 million in ongoing funding to cover unbudgeted personnel costs. The department last month also proposed an additional $100 million in workers compensation.
Read on ... for more on how these cuts will affect programs in the prisons.
The California Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation is restricting access to rehabilitative programming for incarcerated people as it clamps down on overtime spending before the end of its financial year.
Hundreds of rehabilitative programs operate throughout California prisons, including restorative justice, violence prevention, higher education, creative arts expression and entrepreneurial training.
The rollback began earlier this month and will end June 30, according to documents obtained by CalMatters. Corrections spokesperson Terri Hardy described the limitations as a “cost-saving measure.” The department did not respond to a detailed list of questions, including which prisons and programs have been affected.
The department’s overall budget has remained about flat since 2022, around $18 billion a year despite recent cuts that include five prison closures.
Lawmakers at budget hearings earlier this year pressed Corrections Secretary Jeff Macomber to tighten spending as the department asked for additional $91 million in ongoing funding to cover unbudgeted personnel costs. The department last month also proposed an additional $100 million in workers compensation.
Tony Tafoya, who’s been incarcerated since 2012, said he’s never seen anything like this happen before. Tafoya said the scale-back has had the biggest impact on college classes. He’s currently enrolled in Mount Tamalpais College at San Quentin but said his math class has missed out on 12 days of instruction.
“I feel like I’m falling behind,” he said. “There’s a lot of healing that comes from going to school. It provides humanity. It makes me feel like I’m actually seen as a person. I feel like that’s what’s being missed out on.”
Programs at Pleasant Valley State Prison in Coalinga have also been interrupted, including a civic education pilot program. The program, run by the organization Initiate Justice, includes just over a dozen incarcerated people who helped draft legislation to improve social emotional learning in the K-12 school system. Assembly Bill 1851, authored by Democratic Assemblymember Mike Gipson from Gardena, is sailing through the Legislature and scheduled for an upcoming education committee hearing Wednesday.
Antoinette Ratcliffe, executive director of Initiate Justice, said the group “thrives off of active and live discussion, off of meaningful exploration.” The severing of that connection disrupts the learning experience and practical application of the programming, she said.
“We have made it a goal across the Legislature to make rehabilitative programming a priority, so to continue to see disruptions like this feels counter to what we agreed upon as a state,” she said. “It feels like a let down.”
Other advocates have echoed those sentiments. Danica Rodarmel, a criminal justice reform lobbyist, said any disruption in people’s ability to access programming impacts their mental health and well being. The completion of a program or certificate, she said, is often a determining factor in people’s ability to be granted parole.
“Limiting people’s ability to engage in pro-social activities is contradictory to the goals of maintaining safe prisons both for the people who are incarcerated but also for the people who work there,” she said.
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Matthew Mealer holds up his targets at the Busch Shooting Range in Weldon Spring, Mo., in May. Mealer said he's generally skeptical of new vaccines but might consider one for Lyme disease if it proves safe and effective.
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Kyle Pyatt
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KFF Health News
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Topline:
Pharmaceutical companies Pfizer and Valneva announced this spring that they plan to seek regulatory approval for a vaccine to protect against Lyme disease. But it's unclear whether this latest stab at a Lyme disease vaccine will get a warmer reception if it's approved, especially in the post-COVID era of vaccine skepticism.
Why it matters: About 476,000 people in the U.S. may be diagnosed and treated for Lyme disease each year, the CDC says. Left untreated, Lyme disease can cause a variety of symptoms, from fevers, chills and headaches to arthritis, shooting pains and inflammation of the brain and spinal cord.
Read on ... to see what rural hunters in Missouri think about the possibility of a vaccine and for their stories of how the disease has affected them personally.
More and more Americans are being exposed to these parasites as climate change expands the range where they can survive. That means more people are also exposed to the bevy of health conditions they can cause, such as Rocky Mountain spotted fever, the alpha-gal-triggered red meat allergy and, most common of all, Lyme disease.
For Lyme disease, there may be some additional protection on the horizon. Pharmaceutical companies Pfizer and Valneva announced this spring that they plan to seek regulatory approval for a vaccine to protect against Lyme disease. A previous vaccine for Lyme became available in the late 1990s but was pulled only three years later due to lawsuits, public fear of side effects and a lack of interest.
It's unclear whether this latest stab at a Lyme disease vaccine will get a warmer reception if it's approved, especially in the post-COVID era of vaccine skepticism.
For a sense of how it might go over with rural populations at high risk of Lyme, KFF Health News spoke with a group of hunters.
Few people spend more time in the woods exposed to ticks. At the same time, as a collective, hunters skew conservative, rural and male, according to a survey from the Theodore Roosevelt Conservation Partnership. And these are identities associated with increased hesitancy about or resistance to vaccines, according to Ashley Kirzinger, associate director for Public Opinion and Survey Research at KFF, a health information nonprofit that includes KFF Health News.
Targets for ticks
Left untreated, Lyme can cause a variety of symptoms, from fevers, chills and headaches to arthritis, shooting pains and inflammation of the brain and spinal cord, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
About 476,000 people in the U.S. may be diagnosed and treated for Lyme disease each year, the CDC says. That's at least in part because the range of places where cases have been reported has "expanded significantly" since 1995.
So would hunters get the Lyme vaccine if it became available?
"Given my proclivity for the outdoors, absolutely," said Jess Manganelli, one of seven hunters (and one hiker) who spoke with KFF Health News on a recent Saturday at the Busch Shooting Range in Weldon Spring, Mo., just outside of St. Louis.
Of the eight, Manganelli, who had been hunting turkeys the weekend before, was the most positive about the vaccine. Six others said they would consider it but would want more information about its safety and effectiveness, as well as their risk for contracting the disease.
But Manganelli was the only one who believed she may have previously contracted Lyme disease, although she was never formally diagnosed with it. Two years ago, she experienced muscle weakness, tiredness, fatigue, swelling and headaches after a tick bite, but when she went to urgent care, she was told they didn't test for Lyme.
Nearly all the hunters knew someone who had had Lyme disease — an old roommate, a family member, friends, a former student. Lyme can be difficult to diagnose and to treat and is often misdiagnosed at first. Many of the hunters witnessed their acquaintances navigating those challenges and struggling with sometimes debilitating symptoms.
An illness with lingering effects
That familiarity among the hunters in Missouri was unsurprising to author and conservationist Steven Rinella, host of the hunting show MeatEater.
"I'm a turkey hunter. In talking about turkey hunting, you talk about ticks as much as you talk about turkeys," Rinella said. "Just the nature of turkey hunting puts you into exposure. You're sitting for long periods of time, trying to use vegetation for concealment."
In fact, both Rinella and his older son contracted Lyme disease 13 years ago during a bluegill fishing trip in the Hudson Valley in New York. His son developed Bell's palsy, a sudden paralysis on one side of the face, but recovered quickly after a course of oral antibiotics. Steven Rinella's symptoms, on the other hand, lingered for months, leaving him unable to walk down stairs without a handrail or to ride a bike. He ended up receiving intravenous antibiotic treatments for a month.
"I thought my life had changed," Rinella said, "but I recovered, as far as I know."
That experience is one reason Rinella said he would absolutely consider getting a Lyme vaccine if it proved safe and provided considerable protection against the disease. Unlike with some other diseases, prior infection does not provide permanent immunity, so a person who has had Lyme could still benefit from a vaccine.
Knowledge of similar challenges influenced the thinking of the hunters in Missouri as well.
Jeremy Hollingshead said he may be less inclined to take a vaccine owing to his former roommate's experience with Lyme disease, which is not to say the experience was pleasant. In fact, Hollingshead said he thinks his old pal is still dealing with lingering effects of it 10 years later. But Hollingshead has spent his whole life in the woods, and of hundreds of people he knows who have done the same, he knows of only one of them contracting Lyme.
"I know it was a bad outcome for him," Hollingshead said, but he thinks the odds of getting Lyme himself seem pretty slim.
Meanwhile, Julian Barnes said seeing a relative struggle with Lyme makes him more open to a potential vaccine. It took a long time for doctors to come to that diagnosis, and finding a good treatment has been equally difficult.
"I would say I am vaccine-hesitant, generally speaking," Barnes said. "But Lyme, I've seen the way it affects people in my life. ... I would definitely have to really understand the vaccine, how it works."
An unclear path for a new vaccine
The new, four-dose vaccine candidate technically missed one of the bars set out in trials because not enough participants contracted Lyme. Still, the companies say it's about 75% effective in reducing cases, and they plan to submit it to regulators for approval. A Pfizer spokesperson said there were no updates on their regulatory efforts when contacted by KFF Health News in June.
Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was a noted anti-vaccine activist before taking over as head the agency that oversees vaccine approvals, and he's remade it in ways that have prompted some vaccine makers to pull back on development.
But he's also been an advocate on Lyme disease. In May, he announced an initiative to combat Lyme disease. And during his Senate confirmation hearings, he said his family had been deeply affected by Lyme disease and that nobody would work harder than he would to find a vaccine or treatment.
If the vaccine is ultimately approved by the FDA, an endorsement from Kennedy would go a long way, according to KFF's Kirzinger, particularly among supporters of his Make America Healthy Again movement, who tend to be more vaccine-skeptical.
"They trust him as much as they trust their own doctors to tell them what to do with their health and for health information," Kirzinger said. "If he comes out as a strong proponent of this vaccine and says, 'Look what my administration did, and we made this available,' I would imagine there would be less vaccine resistance among that group."
Only one of the hunters who spoke with KFF Health News said they definitely would not be interested in a Lyme vaccine if it became available.
"I kind of hand it off to God and the body he gave me. I'm pretty durable," JP Cummings said. But even though he's not interested in it for himself, he's curious to see what his fellow hunters do as more information comes out.
"Hunters care about the wildlife; hunters care about health," Cummings said. "They love the wildlife, they love their deer, and they love their fellow hunters."
KFF Health News is a national newsroom that produces in-depth journalism about health issues and is one of the core operating programs at KFF.
The federal government released data on how many people dropped coverage in the 29 states that use the HealthCare.gov marketplace for ACA insurance.
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Patrick Sison
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AP
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Topline:
Five million fewer people are currently enrolled in ACA marketplace plans compared to the record high reached last year. More than 1 million fewer people picked a plan for 2026, and then 4 million more either disenrolled or failed to pay their premiums and, therefore, dropped coverage.
Why now: Prices in the market skyrocketed after President Donald Trump and Republicans in Congress failed to extend extra financial help for enrollees last year. The Department of Health and Human Services published a report about the data on its website Friday.
What's next: People dropping their coverage tend to be healthier people. If too many healthy people drop out of the markets, there's a danger that the markets could enter a "death spiral."
Read on ... for more on the latest insurance market trends.
Far more people than previously known have dropped Affordable Care Act health insurance for 2026, according to data released Friday.
Five million fewer people are currently enrolled in ACA marketplace plans compared to the record high reached last year. More than 1 million fewer people picked a plan for 2026, and then 4 million more either disenrolled or failed to pay their premiums and, therefore, dropped coverage.
Prices in the market skyrocketed after President Donald Trump and Republicans in Congress failed to extend extra financial help for enrollees last year. The Department of Health and Human Services published a report about the data on its website Friday.
The report says 19.2 million people are currently enrolled in ACA insurance now.
The steep drop in enrollment reflects what insurers, administrators and other health policy experts expected earlier this year. After initial sign ups were lower than last year, they predicted the picture would get worse as time went on and people found they could not afford to pay their premiums.
"The main takeaway is that enrollment is down 13% from last year," explains Cynthia Cox, director of KFF's Program on the ACA. "While the Trump administration attributes this drop in enrollment to their attempts to address fraud, this coverage loss happened at the same time millions of people faced double- or even triple-digit increases in their premium payments with the expiration of enhanced tax credits."
The idea that the growth in enrollment was due to massive fraud is a theory advanced by the Paragon Health Institute, a conservative think tank influential in the Trump administration.
Many health policy experts are skeptical. They say the increase in enrollment during the pandemic is not suspicious. It was a predictable consequence of Congress's investment of billions of federal dollars in making premiums more affordable — the enhanced premium tax credits.
"The marketplace doubled in size during the period when there were enhanced subsidies because the coverage was much more affordable and much more appealing to people," Cox says.
This year's drop in enrollment is also predictable, given that premium costs doubled, on average, from 2025 to 2026. The costs went up after Republican lawmakers let the enhanced premium tax credits expire; Democrats shut down the government in October 2025 trying to negotiate an extension of the credits that would have kept prices low.
"When their costs went up, many of them dropped their coverage," Cox says.
She adds that while fraud is a real problem in the ACA marketplaces, as it is in all insurance markets, she thinks it does not account for all of the drop in enrollment.
Stacey Pogue, senior research fellow at the Georgetown Center on Health Insurance Reforms, agrees.
"I don't see data that point to that conclusion that a 5 million-person drop can be explained by allegations of fraud," she says. "There's lots of evidence pointing to people making decisions based on what they can pay each month."
The higher health insurance costs are tough for consumers in an economy still plagued by overall inflation. As congress let the prices go up, people made tough decisions about family budgets, where to work, whom to marry and more.
It's also a problem for insurance companies, several of which have announced they will not be participating in ACA markets next year, including Cigna.
"If there are fewer customers, then that makes the market less appealing to insurance companies," Cox says.
That's especially true because the people dropping their coverage tend to be healthier people. If too many healthy people drop out of the markets, there's a danger that the markets could enter a "death spiral."
Cox says she's not worried about a death spiral at this point.
"I think there are still enough people buying ACA marketplace coverage and that's going to keep these markets working," she says. "At this point, we don't see any parts of the country that are at risk of having no insurance company. If that were to happen, that would be what a death spiral might look like."
Even so, the premiums for these plans are on track to keep rising, which could continue to pummel consumers navigating high health care costs. Enrollment in the marketplaces may continue to shrink too. According to a recent analysis from Pogue at Georgetown, early insurance rate filings for 2027 show that rates will be going up again next year.