Topline:
A second Trump administration has the potential to reshape the economy in fundamental ways.
Why it matters: President-elect Donald Trump has promised to slap tariffs on imports, order large-scale deportation of immigrants and cut taxes and government regulations during his second term.
Read on... for more on how his policies might be enacted, and what they could mean for the U.S. economy.
A second Trump administration has the potential to reshape the economy in fundamental ways.
President-elect Donald Trump has promised to slap tariffs on imports, order large-scale deportation of immigrants and cut taxes and government regulations during his second term.
While it's not certain when or how those policies might be enacted, here's what they could mean for the U.S. economy.
There's a reason the stock market surged after Trump won the election. Investors expect a more business-friendly administration, including tax cuts.
During a new term, the former president wants to extend portions of the 2017 tax cut that are set to expire next year, and he has called for additional cuts in the corporate tax.
He has also floated the idea of exempting tipped income and Social Security benefits from federal taxes.
The ultimate size and shape of any tax cut may hinge on whether Republicans retain control of the House of Representatives. But the extension of most individual tax cuts, at a minimum, appears likely.
"Some additional tax cuts seem probable in our view, although the timing, size and specifics are highly uncertain," Wells Fargo economists Jay Bryson and Michael Pugliese wrote in a research note, adding that additional cuts could lead to somewhat faster economic growth in 2026 and 2027.
The economic stimulus from tax cuts would be partially offset, however, by Trump's proposed tariffs, which would raise costs for U.S. businesses and consumers and likely invite retaliation from U.S. trading partners.
Trump has proposed adding a tariff of 10% to 20% on all imports, with significantly higher levies on imports from China.
Forecasters at Pantheon Macroeconomics project that a 10% tariff would increase inflation by about 0.8 percentage points next year and impose an additional drag on U.S. manufacturers.
While Trump says tariffs would encourage businesses to set up shop in the U.S., economists are dubious. "It will remain much cheaper to source goods from overseas, given relatively high U.S. labor costs, limiting the reshoring boost," said Pantheon economist Samuel Tombs.
While tariffs would raise some additional revenue for the government, Trump's overall economic platform — including the proposed tax cuts — are expected to widen the federal deficit, adding to the government's borrowing costs.
The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates that Trump's fiscal policies would add an extra $7.75 trillion in government debt over the next decade.
The prospect of so much additional debt spooked bond investors, sending bond yields sharply higher Wednesday. Mortgage rates, which tend to follow the yield on 10-year Treasuries, are expected to climb as well.
Trump has called for mass deportation of immigrants who are in the U.S. illegally. During his first term in the White House, Trump also took steps to curtail legal immigration, and his advisers have drawn up plans to do so again, The Wall Street Journal reports.
Analysts at the Brookings Institution, the American Enterprise Institute and the Niskanen Center project that net migration to the U.S. could be sharply lower — even negative — during a second Trump administration, with unfortunate consequences for the U.S. economy.
Strict limits on immigration could choke off the supply of foreign-born workers who have been propping up the U.S. job market at a time when many baby boomers are retiring.
"There very well may be valid reasons to adopt such a policy," Bryson and Pugliese of Wells Fargo wrote. "But, side effects of a policy that restricts immigration and deports undocumented people likely would be upward pressures on labor costs and a detrimental effect on the nation's potential economic growth rate."
Inflation has cooled substantially, allowing the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates. But the central bank may proceed more cautiously if Trump's policies put more upward pressure on prices. The central bank is widely expected to lower its benchmark rate by a quarter percentage point on Thursday. But Pantheon's Tombs expects fewer rate cuts next year, as a result of Trump's election.
During his first term in the White House, Trump frequently urged the Fed to cut rates more aggressively, at times berating Fed Chair Jerome Powell, whom he had appointed. Powell's term expires in 2026, giving Trump the opportunity to nominate his successor. Trump could also replace Michael Barr as the Fed's top bank regulator when his term as vice chair of supervision expires that year.
The Fed is designed to be insulated from political pressure, so that it can make unpopular decisions when necessary to curb inflation. That independence is central to the Fed's credibility. Trump has routinely flouted that norm, however, suggesting that the president should have a say in monetary policy.
Congress has generally defended the Fed's independence, but that could change in a second Trump administration.
Copyright 2024 NPR
Topline:
Could smoking pot lead people to drink less alcohol? In an elaborate and provocative experiment, scientists doled out joints and free drinks to see whether this idea — sometimes described as "California sober" — survived scientific scrutiny.
Why it matters: The new research offers some of the strongest data yet suggesting that smoking weed does, at least in the short term, curb how much people drink.
About the findings: The findings were published in the American Journal of Psychiatry on Wednesday — and are sure to raise questions about the merits of swapping one of these substances for another, especially given growing concern in the public health field about the popularity of cannabis.
Read on... for more about the study and its findings.
Could smoking pot lead people to drink less alcohol?
In an elaborate and provocative experiment, scientists doled out joints and free drinks to see whether this idea — sometimes described as "California sober" — survived scientific scrutiny.
The new research offers some of the strongest data yet suggesting that smoking weed does, at least in the short term, curb how much people drink.
The findings were published in the American Journal of Psychiatry on Wednesday — and are sure to raise questions about the merits of swapping one of these substances for another, especially given growing concern in the public health field about the popularity of cannabis.
And the researchers are cautious about making any recommendations based on their findings at this point.
"We're not ready to tell people seeking treatment for alcohol, go ahead and substitute cannabis, and it will work out for you," says Jane Metrik, a professor of behavioral and social science at Brown University who led the study.
But the research does bring scientists closer to understanding the link between these two substances, at a time when many people are leaning on marijuana to cut back on drinking, without waiting for the evidence.
"This study really moves the field forward by helping to resolve one of the unresolved questions in the literature," says Jeff Wardell, a professor of psychology at York University. "This gives us more confidence that there's a real effect here."
In the Brown study, the team took pains to replicate the real-life circumstances of getting stoned and drinking, while still maintaining a tightly controlled study that could point toward a causal relationship.
They constructed a laboratory that resembles a bar, with comfy seats and a tap, and ensured each participant had their preferred alcoholic beverage on hand.
"We wanted to make sure that when given the opportunity, you would be really driven to drink," says Metrik, who ended up spending substantial time shuttling between liquor stores looking for special vintages and spirits.
The experiment included three separate sessions. In one of them, participants smoked a marijuana joint with higher levels of the psychoactive compound, THC; in another they used a lower potency strain; and the last, researchers gave them a placebo with a trace amount of THC that wasn't enough to get them high.
After toking up in a designated smoking room, each participant spent the next two hours in the "bar lab" on their own where they had the opportunity to drink up to eight mini drinks.
The people who smoked the higher potency cannabis ended up drinking 27% less alcohol, and the lower potency about 19% less, compared to the placebo. People who used cannabis also delayed their drinking.
"It is an important signal that we're detecting," says Metrik. "It is telling us that cannabinoids could play a potential therapeutic role in alcohol use disorder."
Previous research has suggested that cannabis may reduce alcohol cravings and how much people drink. But the results have been largely inconclusive, in part because the data often come from observational studies, which are less reliable and can be muddied by other factors. Animal studies have also indicated potential biological mechanisms behind weed's effect on alcohol; however, there's a question of how much this applies to humans.
The new study also builds on what a team of researchers in Colorado reported earlier this year in a slightly different experiment.
There, participants instead picked up their marijuana from a dispensary, smoked it at home and then visited a mobile lab parked nearby, where they were offered alcoholic beverages.
The amount people ended up drinking dropped by about 25% when they were already stoned. Cravings also went down.
"These findings are all converging on a similar story," says Hollis Karoly, an associate professor of psychiatry at the University of Colorado Anschutz who led the study. But she points out there are still big questions about how much you can extrapolate from this new evidence.
One obvious limitation is that how someone behaves when every sip they are taking is under close observation may not necessarily reflect what happens in a much looser, real-world social setting.
And beyond that, Karoly says this pattern toward reduced alcohol consumption wasn't true for everyone in their study. In a minority of people, it actually led them to drink more.
"This really highlights the fact that individual differences matter," she says.
Another unanswered question centers on who's being studied.
Most of the people in the Brown trial met the criteria for "cannabis use disorder," and about 40% for alcohol use disorder. That could indicate their "drug of choice" was not necessarily alcohol in the first place, says Rajita Sinha, a professor of psychiatry at Yale University.
For people with problem drinking, cannabis might be a potential treatment, she says. This approach, on the other hand, "may also be promoting more cannabis use and that would be problematic."
"Once you're in the throes of daily cannabis use, it's very hard to kick that habit," she says.
Those involved in this work acknowledge the tension in this line of research.
Cannabis doesn't carry the same risks of extreme harm as alcohol, which is a leading cause of preventable death in the U.S and kills more than 170,000 people a year.
But Wardell says cannabis is clearly "not a harm-free substance," either.
While research on its effect has not kept up with its surging popularity, studies have shown marijuana can impair cognition and memory, trigger a serious gastrointestinal syndrome that causes nausea and vomiting, increase the risk of psychosis and other psychiatric illness, and impact relationships and social functioning.
And Wardell says this latest study doesn't actually tell us whether the negative outcomes of alcohol are worse than cannabis in the long run.
"We would have to choose which one for a given individual might be less harmful and make sure that it's not inadvertently just replacing one problem with another," he says.
In her role as a clinical psychologist, Metrik at Brown has seen some patients with severe alcoholism who successfully stopped drinking with the help of cannabis, though some have then gone on to develop issues with that drug.
In her mind, the problem right now is that many people are relying on cannabis to treat their alcohol problems, without any guidance.
"We see this all the time, and we don't know what to tell them," she says. "There's no clear messaging,"
Copyright 2025 NPR
Topline:
Can rebuilding 14 affordable rental units on one lot in Altadena be a model for building back more equitably? The Altadena Builds Back Foundation and its partners think so.
Why it matters: More than 77% of multi-family units in Altadena were destroyed in the Eaton Fire, according to data analyzed by the United Way. After the fire, many Altadena renters who were paying far below market rates were thrust into an unaffordable housing market.
Keep reading ... for more on the effort to get renters back home.
Can rebuilding 14 affordable rental units on one lot in Altadena be a model for building back more equitably? The Altadena Builds Back Foundation and its partners think so.
The subsidiary of the Pasadena Community Foundation that launched after the Eaton Fire announced today that it has awarded a nearly $6 million grant to Pasadena-based affordable housing provider Beacon Housing. The money will purchase a lot on Pine Street in West Altadena that had 14 rental units in a bungalow court and two duplexes before the fire. The grant covered the purchase, as well as debris cleanup. It also will fund the reconstruction, which is expected to be complete by the end of summer.
“We need to center renters because I think that they are often not included in the conversation,” said Palin Ngaotheppitak, Beacon’s executive director and an Altadena resident. “We've heard it said over the last 10 months, ‘Oh, they'll just go move somewhere else.’ But I think that they're much more vulnerable to homelessness.”
It’s the second grant awarded by the foundation — the first one of more than $4.5 million went to San Gabriel Valley Habitat for Humanity to rebuild 22 single-family homes. Those homes are under construction — the first of which is right down the street from this new property.
“It just brings me, as an Altadena resident, a little bit more hope each time that we will rebuild, that we will come back and we are doing this in a way that is thoughtful of the future and future generations,” Ngaotheppitak said.
More than 77% of multi-family units in Altadena were destroyed in the Eaton Fire, according to data analyzed by the United Way. After the fire, many Altadena renters who were paying far below market rates were thrust into an unaffordable housing market.
A recent survey from the Eaton Fire Collab found that 72% of surveyed renters still are in need of housing and 68% experienced a total loss of their home.
“Some are couch surfing. People are displaced 20, 30 miles farther than they've ever been,” said the Rev. Mary Ann Harrison, pastor of Christ the Shepherd Lutheran Church in Altadena, which is near the bungalow court development.
Candice Kim, project director of the Altadena Builds Back Foundation, said the group wants to fund more projects.
“There is a desire to raise more funding, to have more funders come in and fund affordable housing or community-friendly projects,” Kim said. “And so this is our challenge to the rest of our funding community.”
Previous tenants of the property will get priority to return; others will be selected via a lottery. Tenants will have to qualify as very low income — a two-person household, for example, would have to make less than $60,600 a year — and prove their housing was affected by the Eaton Fire.
“We felt that it was really important to focus on a project that we can keep affordable for a long time and that would be a symbol for others around how we can get renters to come back and how we preserve affordable housing in the community,” Ngaotheppitak said.
Construction is expected to be completed by late summer — to speed up the process and keep prices down, the units will all be prefab. The bungalows will be built by Clayton Homes and the duplexes by Malibu-based manufactured home builder the Home Gallery.
Once construction has moved forward significantly, there will be a specific sign-up for tenants interested in this property. Meanwhile, Eaton Fire survivors who need housing assistance can fill out Beacon’s interest form online.
Topline:
Liberal billionaire Tom Steyer raised his profile as a foe to President Donald Trump when he spent $13 million on ads touting Proposition 50. Now, Steyer is jumping in the 2026 California governor’s race.
About Steyer: Steyer made his fortune as the founder of Farallon Capital, a hedge fund headquartered in San Francisco that currently manages about $42 billion in assets. After selling his stake in the company in 2012, Steyer started NextGen America, a liberal nonprofit that supports progressive positions on issues such as climate change, immigration, health care and education. The group also launched a labor-aligned super PAC to fund races nationwide.
About the race: Gov. Gavin Newsom terms out next year. At least six other Democrats are running to replace him, including former Rep. Katie Porter, former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra and former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa.
Read on... for more details about Steyer's campaign launch.
This story was originally published by CalMatters. Sign up for their newsletters.
Tom Steyer, the billionaire climate activist and businessman who unsuccessfully ran for president in 2020, is the latest Democrat to jump into California’s crowded gubernatorial field.
His two core promises — which could appear at odds — are to preserve the state’s status as a hub for business and innovation while also lowering California’s cost of living by making corporations pay “their fair share,” he said in a video message.
The nearly two-minute campaign launch film, which intersperses sleek graphics with footage of line cooks, ranchers and manufacturing workers on the job, encapsulates those dueling themes.
“There’s a reason everybody comes here to start businesses — because this is the place that invents the future,” Steyer says near the start of the video. “I never want to lose that spark.”
Steyer made his fortune as the founder of Farallon Capital, a hedge fund headquartered in San Francisco that currently manages about $42 billion in assets. After selling his stake in the company in 2012, Steyer started NextGen America, a liberal nonprofit that supports progressive positions on issues such as climate change, immigration, health care and education. The group also launched a labor-aligned super PAC to fund races nationwide.
His activism through NextGen America has elevated Steyer’s profile in recent years from little-known hedge fund manager to global climate activist and Republican antagonizer. He has spent millions to pass progressive ballot measures to uphold California environmental laws, raise taxes on tobacco to fund health care and push states to invest in more renewable energy.
Gov. Gavin Newsom terms out next year. At least six other Democrats are running to replace him, including former Rep. Katie Porter, former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra and former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa.
While a billionaire former financial executive might be at odds with a party base hungry for a more relatable fighter, he’s attempting to appeal to everyday Californians by spotlighting the issue that most people say is their top priority — affordability.
“The Californians who make this state run are being run over by the cost of living,” Steyer says later in the video. “Californians deserve a life they can afford.”
Steyer also promises to “launch the largest drive to build homes that you can afford” in state history, rein in monopolistic utilities that have driven up costs and “drop our sky-high energy prices.”
Steyer’s nearly $13 million advertising blitz in support of Proposition 50, the congressional redistricting plan that voters approved earlier this month via special election, led many California political insiders to speculate that he would launch another bid for governor.
He alluded to his gubernatorial ambitions when he launched a controversial advertisement that, rather than amplify the Yes on Prop. 50 campaign’s message of checking the Trump administration’s power, touted his own calls to impeach and resist President Donald Trump.
This article was originally published on CalMatters and was republished under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives license.
Topline:
It's 1,000 days out until the Paralympic Games come to Los Angeles, and organizers have released a preview of the competition schedule.
Highlights: The Paralympic schedule provides a sketch of the excitement ahead for summer 2028. The day after the Opening Ceremony, the first medals will be awarded for para athletics, wheelchair fencing, shooting para sport, para equestrian and para cycling track.
What else? The Los Angeles Paralympics also will welcome a new sport to the games: para climbing.
Where can I learn more? You can find the first look at the Paralympic schedule here.
Read on … for more details on 2028.
It's 1,000 days out until the Paralympic Games come to Los Angeles, and organizers have released a preview of the competition schedule.
The opening ceremony for the Games will take place at SoFi Stadium on Aug. 15, and the closing ceremony will be at the L.A. Memorial Coliseum on Aug. 27. That's according to a first look published by private Olympic organizing committee LA28 on its website, which lays out the days for which each sporting event is tentatively scheduled.
It's the third time L.A. is hosting the Olympics, but the city's first Paralympic Games. Athletes will compete in 23 sports across a span of about two weeks. The Paralympics will follow the Olympic Games, which will take place in July.
The Paralympic schedule provides a sketch of the excitement ahead for the summer of 2028.
The day after the Opening Ceremony, the first medals will be awarded for para athletics, wheelchair fencing, shooting para sport, para equestrian and para cycling track. Wheelchair rugby and boccia competition will start before the Games officially begin, starting a couple days ahead of the opening ceremony.
Blind football, wheelchair football, sitting volleyball and more sports will close out the summer of Olympic competition in Los Angeles, ahead of the closing ceremony.
The Los Angeles Paralympics also will welcome a new sport to the games: para climbing.
You can find the first look at the Paralympic schedule here. A more detailed schedule will come out next year.
Here’s a look at the Olympic schedule.
