The Brief

This is an excerpt from Make It Make Sense, our pop-up newsletter on the 2024 election. If you want updates on election results and what they mean for your life, sign up here.

As of Tuesday night, Republicans are just two seats away from snagging control of the U.S. House of Representatives. Here in Southern California, a few of our swing seats aren’t settled yet — and they could help tip the balance.

One was settled Tuesday when Republican incumbent Scott Baugh conceded to Dave Min in Orange County's District 47. And on Monday, Republican incumbent Mike Garcia conceded to George Whitesides in the closely watched race for District 27.

That leaves just four federal and one statewide races in California that so far have less than a 2% difference between first and second place and between “yes” and “no” votes for ballot measures.

Here’s a look at what’s driving our tightest races in the House.

A two-county race could go blue

In District 45, a key swing seat, Republican Rep. Michelle Steel’s lead shrunk again Tuesday evening to 50.4% over Democrat Derek Tran’s 49.6%. Steel’s win appeared solid in the early counts after Election Day, but Tran has been inching up consistently as votes drop.

This district straddles parts of southeast L.A. County and north O.C., with voters split 37.07% Democrat and 33.05% Republican. Unsurprisingly, L.A. votes have so far favored Tran, while a majority of O.C.’s have gone to Steel.

If the trajectory of votes over time continues on its current path, the district could flip blue. That would be a blow to House Republicans who have largely viewed it as a safe seat since it was created through redistricting after the 1980 census. (The only exception was Rep. Katie Porter’s term between 2019 and 2023.)

It could also spell political trouble for Steel as state senators criticized her recently after an LAist investigation found she awarded a pandemic meals contract to her campaign mail vendor during her time as an O.C. supervisor.

Orange County seat goes blue

Until Baugh's concession Tuesday night, it was a similar story further down south. 

Democrat Dave Min (50.9%) grew his small edge over Republican Scott Baugh (49.1%) again Tuesday night, after first taking the lead Friday. By Tuesday's tally, Min was ahead by nearly 6,000 votes.

A few hours after the latest tallies were in, Baugh acknowledged he'd been defeated.

"It has become clear that despite running a strong campaign, connecting with voters, and mobilizing an incredible volunteer effort — that effort is going to come up a little short," Baugh said on X. "I am grateful to an outstanding campaign team and the most dedicated supporters any candidate could."

This is for the seat where Porter chose not to run for reelection, instead trying to win as U.S. senator. The tight race is the unmistakable mark of a really purple district — which has left-leaning Irvine (the district’s largest city) and right-leaning Huntington Beach.

Voter registration is nearly split in two: 38.83% of registered voters are Democrats and 34.87% are Republicans.

A House seat flips

One of our most-watched races finished Monday night.

In District 27, Republican Rep. Mike Garcia conceded, saying he will ensure a smooth handoff to Democratic challenger George Whitesides, a former CEO of Virgin Galactic. Garcia thanked his constituents for allowing him to represent them during what he called a “tumultuous” and “critical” period.

Whitesides credited voters for fueling his campaign’s success. His win gives Democrats a much-needed leg up in their House efforts. It was a Democratic stronghold for more than 20 years before Garcia took office.

Garcia took the district in a special election in 2020, then won a full term by just 333 votes in a stunning conclusion that same year. The district mostly covers rural Antelope Valley and parts of the San Fernando Valley, with 30.23% of voters registered as Republican and 40.41% Democrat.

The exit came after Whitesides pulled ahead Saturday with a lead that grew to 6,983 votes by Monday evening.

As of the latest vote count, Garcia has 48.79% of the vote and Whitesides has 51.21%. 

These close races aren’t our first rodeo

We’ve experienced close calls with the not-so-supernatural at local and state levels. Margins can even be as small as a single-digit or double-digit gap.

While O.C. Supervisor-elect Janet Nguyen won her race for District 1 a few days ago, she had a very close call in one of her previous campaigns for the seat. She became a supervisor in 2007 after a recount confirmed a margin of just three votes.

Long Beach voters got a recount over Measure A in 2020, which passed by just 16 votes. Then, of course, there was Garcia’s 333-vote race win.

Close races can also pop up during the primary. This year, a congressional race in Silicon Valley faced a tie for second and a recount, which resulted in a single-second place candidate for the general election.

Could recounts happen?

Recounts are always possible in theory.

Keep in mind, a gap of a couple thousand votes may seem small but that’s typical in certain city elections. That kind of margin can be much tighter for federal district races with hundreds of thousands of voters.

Overall, it’s quite rare for a recount to make a dramatic difference, but that doesn’t stop candidates or voters from checking in.

There’s no hard-and-fast rule for when, but a couple of close races could fall into the usual recount territory if things are very close.

Unlike other states, California doesn’t have an automatic recount threshold.

State election law allows any voter to request a recount for any contest as long as they pay for it (which can wildly range from around $10,000 to upwards of $100,000). For most races, this has to be done within five days after the election is officially certified (that’s by Dec. 5). For statewide or cross-county elections, that request can only be done within five days after Dec. 6.

California law also allows the governor to order a state-funded recount for any statewide office or ballot measure if the difference is less than 1,000 votes.

In a cozy dance studio in Garden Grove, dancers of all experience levels, ages and backgrounds flock to Queer Latin Dance OC to learn the steps to salsa, cumbia and bachata.

For many, the dance class is more than educational — it’s a place to get away from it all, to find community and to uplift one another through art.

When Rodrigo Marquez founded Queer Latin Dance OC at the beginning of this year, he said he was filling a gap in Orange County that often lacks safe spaces for the LGBTQ+ community.

“I wanted to make creative communities for us to learn in a safe environment,” Marquez said. “Everyone's here to learn, and I want the pressure of whatever's going on in the world, just to forget for the next hour.”

Queer Latin Dance OC meets three times a week to learn the steps to salsa, cumbia and bachata.

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Destiny Torres

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LAist

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What are the dance lessons like? 

When creating his teaching plan, Marquez said he considers the range of experience his students might have. Everybody starts somewhere, he added, and the hardest part is showing up.

“It is scary, but if you're already showing up, then just jump in and just forget about the world. It's a great distraction, and dancing makes you feel better,” Marquez said.

Philip Lee, an elementary school teacher from Tustin, took his first class with the group Monday night, trying the quick steps of salsa.

“I had a stressful day. … All my stress that I had in my neck and upper back just kind of went away,” Lee said, adding that the high energy in the room is infectious. “It was nice just laughing with people in the community and meeting new people.”

Lee said the dance lesson gave him a space to be with community.

“The queer community specifically, and just kind of let my guard down and just be free and laugh and enjoy being me and celebrated for a love for the arts,” Lee said. “That's not a space that is always safe.”

Before taking lessons at Queer Latin Dance OC, Melba Rivera said she came in with zero dance experience.

“You come as you are. No matter what level you're at or how you identify or what your experience is, everybody's here and everybody's learning,” Rivera said. “It's a very encouraging and motivating space.”

Salsa and bachata are social dances, Marquez said, but one thing that makes his class unique to many is that regardless of gender identity, anyone can follow or lead.

Typically, the lead falls to the male dancer, and women follow. Marquez said it was important that no one feels pressured to be one or the other.

“That's why I created this, so people like me can just come and learn, not be expected to be in a gender role based on how they look,” Marquez said. “They want to dance how they feel.”

Why it matters

Taryn Heiner said, especially in Orange County, it’s challenging to find spaces that are queer-friendly and queer-open.

“That's really what makes this space so kind and warm and welcoming,” Heiner said. “We have all that base understanding of respecting one another, no matter who they are, who they love and what they do.”

Growing up in Orange County, not every room you walk into is a safe space, Rivera added.

“So walking into a room like this, where everybody's friendly, everybody's learning, everybody's just here for the same purpose to get better, to support each other, is really important,” Rivera said. “Not just in the class, but [in] the friendships we make outside of the classroom.”

Outside of dance class, Marquez’s students meet up for monthly hikes and other get-togethers. Marquez said it is a privilege and an honor to bring people together through his love for dance.

“I've seen people become friends since January, and I see them practice outside of practice,” Marquez said. “I've always had a dream to do my own dance classes, but to do it in a way where people can connect and just be themselves. It's far greater than that.”

Queer Latin Dance OC offers lessons to dancers of all experience levels and has created a new community hub in Orange County.

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Destiny Torres

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LAist

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Want to dance? 

Salsa, cumbia and bachata classes are held three nights a week on Mondays, Tuesdays and Thursdays. Classes are $20 per session, but Marquez also offers a free beginner salsa class every Monday.

You can register for the class of your choice here. Payments are taken in person.

Border Patrol agents have been roving from city to city over the last 15 months, far from their home bases in California and elsewhere along the U.S.-Mexico border, engaged in an unprecedented mass deportation campaign.

A collaboration between CalMatters, Evident Media and Bellingcat has tracked these agents, documenting their tactics on the ground and through mountains of video footage, since their first proof-of-concept raid in Bakersfield in January 2025.

Exactly one year later, an Immigration and Customs Enforcement agent shot and killed Renée Good in Minneapolis, followed weeks later by the killing of Alex Pretti by a Border Patrol agent.

Our investigation shows that beyond those two shootings, immigration agents engaged in a pattern of force and questionable detention, aggressive tactics that courts have said likely violated the Constitution, as they moved from Bakersfield to Los Angeles, and then Chicago and Minneapolis.

In each city, federal courts stepped in to restrain them from violating civil liberties in that jurisdiction. Agents later deployed to another city. The video evidence suggests agents’ tactics became more brazen with each stop.

Under President Donald Trump, immigration agents have operated without typical public accountability. Many agents wear masks. Incident reports are largely hidden from the public.

“We are in a completely uncharted world now with these masked agents,” said John Roth, who served as inspector general of the Department of Homeland Security under Presidents Barack Obama and Trump.

“The first thing that you do when you give an agent a gun and a badge and the authority over American people is to make sure that they follow the Constitution, period,” he said.

In this new film, we focus on the activity of five agents from the US-Mexico border whose identities we’ve been able to confirm.

Watch the documentary

We are not aware of any disciplinary action taken against these agents. DHS did not respond to requests for comment; the individual agents either declined to comment or didn’t respond to calls or emails.

We showed the incidents to Roth and Steve Bunnell, former DHS general counsel. Both have testified before Congress, raising the alarm about what they see as a dismantling of the department’s accountability and credibility. Roth called the incidents “difficult to watch.”

“There are sort of two essential components of DHS and law enforcement generally being effective, and that’s trust and credibility,” Bunnell said. “And they have lost those things to the extent they had them.”