The Brief

This is an excerpt from Make It Make Sense, our pop-up newsletter on the 2024 election. If you want updates on election results and what they mean for your life, sign up here.

As of Tuesday night, Republicans are just two seats away from snagging control of the U.S. House of Representatives. Here in Southern California, a few of our swing seats aren’t settled yet — and they could help tip the balance.

One was settled Tuesday when Republican incumbent Scott Baugh conceded to Dave Min in Orange County's District 47. And on Monday, Republican incumbent Mike Garcia conceded to George Whitesides in the closely watched race for District 27.

That leaves just four federal and one statewide races in California that so far have less than a 2% difference between first and second place and between “yes” and “no” votes for ballot measures.

Here’s a look at what’s driving our tightest races in the House.

A two-county race could go blue

In District 45, a key swing seat, Republican Rep. Michelle Steel’s lead shrunk again Tuesday evening to 50.4% over Democrat Derek Tran’s 49.6%. Steel’s win appeared solid in the early counts after Election Day, but Tran has been inching up consistently as votes drop.

This district straddles parts of southeast L.A. County and north O.C., with voters split 37.07% Democrat and 33.05% Republican. Unsurprisingly, L.A. votes have so far favored Tran, while a majority of O.C.’s have gone to Steel.

If the trajectory of votes over time continues on its current path, the district could flip blue. That would be a blow to House Republicans who have largely viewed it as a safe seat since it was created through redistricting after the 1980 census. (The only exception was Rep. Katie Porter’s term between 2019 and 2023.)

It could also spell political trouble for Steel as state senators criticized her recently after an LAist investigation found she awarded a pandemic meals contract to her campaign mail vendor during her time as an O.C. supervisor.

Orange County seat goes blue

Until Baugh's concession Tuesday night, it was a similar story further down south. 

Democrat Dave Min (50.9%) grew his small edge over Republican Scott Baugh (49.1%) again Tuesday night, after first taking the lead Friday. By Tuesday's tally, Min was ahead by nearly 6,000 votes.

A few hours after the latest tallies were in, Baugh acknowledged he'd been defeated.

"It has become clear that despite running a strong campaign, connecting with voters, and mobilizing an incredible volunteer effort — that effort is going to come up a little short," Baugh said on X. "I am grateful to an outstanding campaign team and the most dedicated supporters any candidate could."

This is for the seat where Porter chose not to run for reelection, instead trying to win as U.S. senator. The tight race is the unmistakable mark of a really purple district — which has left-leaning Irvine (the district’s largest city) and right-leaning Huntington Beach.

Voter registration is nearly split in two: 38.83% of registered voters are Democrats and 34.87% are Republicans.

A House seat flips

One of our most-watched races finished Monday night.

In District 27, Republican Rep. Mike Garcia conceded, saying he will ensure a smooth handoff to Democratic challenger George Whitesides, a former CEO of Virgin Galactic. Garcia thanked his constituents for allowing him to represent them during what he called a “tumultuous” and “critical” period.

Whitesides credited voters for fueling his campaign’s success. His win gives Democrats a much-needed leg up in their House efforts. It was a Democratic stronghold for more than 20 years before Garcia took office.

Garcia took the district in a special election in 2020, then won a full term by just 333 votes in a stunning conclusion that same year. The district mostly covers rural Antelope Valley and parts of the San Fernando Valley, with 30.23% of voters registered as Republican and 40.41% Democrat.

The exit came after Whitesides pulled ahead Saturday with a lead that grew to 6,983 votes by Monday evening.

As of the latest vote count, Garcia has 48.79% of the vote and Whitesides has 51.21%. 

These close races aren’t our first rodeo

We’ve experienced close calls with the not-so-supernatural at local and state levels. Margins can even be as small as a single-digit or double-digit gap.

While O.C. Supervisor-elect Janet Nguyen won her race for District 1 a few days ago, she had a very close call in one of her previous campaigns for the seat. She became a supervisor in 2007 after a recount confirmed a margin of just three votes.

Long Beach voters got a recount over Measure A in 2020, which passed by just 16 votes. Then, of course, there was Garcia’s 333-vote race win.

Close races can also pop up during the primary. This year, a congressional race in Silicon Valley faced a tie for second and a recount, which resulted in a single-second place candidate for the general election.

Could recounts happen?

Recounts are always possible in theory.

Keep in mind, a gap of a couple thousand votes may seem small but that’s typical in certain city elections. That kind of margin can be much tighter for federal district races with hundreds of thousands of voters.

Overall, it’s quite rare for a recount to make a dramatic difference, but that doesn’t stop candidates or voters from checking in.

There’s no hard-and-fast rule for when, but a couple of close races could fall into the usual recount territory if things are very close.

Unlike other states, California doesn’t have an automatic recount threshold.

State election law allows any voter to request a recount for any contest as long as they pay for it (which can wildly range from around $10,000 to upwards of $100,000). For most races, this has to be done within five days after the election is officially certified (that’s by Dec. 5). For statewide or cross-county elections, that request can only be done within five days after Dec. 6.

California law also allows the governor to order a state-funded recount for any statewide office or ballot measure if the difference is less than 1,000 votes.

We have a winner in the bidding war for Warner Bros-Discovery.

Netflix is in final talks to buy Warner's film and TV studios, plus its streaming assets and some debt, in a deal worth nearly $83 billion.

In a statement Friday, Netflix said the two entertainment giants had "entered into a definitive agreement under which Netflix will acquire Warner Bros., including its film and television studios, HBO Max and HBO." The announcement caps what had been a closely watched bidding war in Hollywood that involved top competitor Paramount.

“Our mission has always been to entertain the world,” Ted Sarandos, co-CEO of Netflix, said in a statement. “By combining Warner Bros.’ incredible library of shows and movies — from timeless classics like Casablanca and Citizen Kane to modern favorites like Harry Potter and Friends — with our culture-defining titles like Stranger Things, KPop Demon Hunters and Squid Game, we'll be able to do that even better. Together, we can give audiences more of what they love and help define the next century of storytelling.”

The deal would give Netflix one of Hollywood's most valuable libraries, including the Harry Potter, Game of Thrones, and the DC Comics properties.

The Directors Guild of America told Variety that the deal "raises significant concerns."

“The news that Netflix had secured exclusive rights to negotiate for WBD raises significant concerns for the DGA,” the guild said. “We believe that a vibrant, competitive industry — one that fosters creativity and encourages genuine competition for talent — is essential to safeguarding the careers and creative rights of directors and their teams."

For its part, Netflix said in it's statement that it "expects to maintain Warner Bros.’ current operations and build on its strengths, including theatrical releases for films."

The deal still has to clear regulatory and other hurdles, and would likely take around a year to close.

Breezy conditions will linger today for L.A. County mountains, but otherwise, expect a mild weather day. Come Sunday, temperatures will rise significantly continuing into next week.

Temperatures in the Inland Empire and Coachella Valley will range from 67 to 73 degrees.

In Orange County, inland and coastal areas will stay in the 64- to 70-degree range.

For the L.A. County coast, expect highs from 64 to 72 degrees. For the valley communities, highs there will range from 68 to 74 degrees. In the Antelope Valley, highs will range from 60 to 65 degrees, but foothill communities will still see daytime highs in the upper 50s to around low 60s.

Beach hazards

High surf has come and gone, but now look out for high tides that could lead to pooling of water around walkways, parking lots or other low-lying areas near the ocean. These conditions will last until Saturday morning.

Eleven months after the January fires, childcare providers — especially those who operated businesses out of their homes — still are struggling to open up their doors.

“There were no state or federal funds provided to support families or providers connected to childcare,” said Cristina Alvarado, executive director of the Child Care Alliance of Los Angeles, at a recent legislative hearing. “Sadly, we will experience another disaster, another fire, another loss.”

The California Department of Social Services said as of this summer, 50 of 280 impacted childcare facilities remained closed. They stopped tracking the data in August.

Providers told lawmakers in October that they needed more support to survive in an already fragile childcare industry. Preschools have been closing in L.A. County. There also are not enough childcare providers, and those who are in business are chronically underpaid. A recent study out of Stanford found that most childcare workers struggle to afford basic needs.

Listen 27:21

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At least 280 childcare spaces were affected by the Eaton and Palisades fires in January. LAist reporter Libby Rainey and early childhood senior reporter Elly Yu followed two women who ran childcare businesses out of their homes until the Eaton Fire destroyed them. In this episode of Imperfect Paradise, they look at how these two childcare providers are rebuilding their lives and businesses, the catch-22 they found themselves in around government assistance, and the state of the child care industry at large.

Altadena childcare providers' struggle to rebuild raises questions about government disaster response

At least 280 childcare spaces were affected by the Eaton and Palisades fires in January. LAist reporter Libby Rainey and early childhood senior reporter Elly Yu followed two women who ran childcare businesses out of their homes until the Eaton Fire destroyed them. In this episode of Imperfect Paradise, they look at how these two childcare providers are rebuilding their lives and businesses, the catch-22 they found themselves in around government assistance, and the state of the child care industry at large.

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This means those childcare providers and the system as a whole are particularly vulnerable when a disaster strikes, like January's fires.

“ I lost my only source of income without a place to operate. I cannot work. I still had to pay my rent and my mortgage payment, as well as our living expenses such as food,” said Francisca Gunawardena, who lost her house and childcare business in the Eaton Fire. Nearly a year later, she still hasn't been able to re-open.

What was available for providers? 

Unlike during COVID, childcare providers didn’t receive dedicated relief money to recover from the fires. That left them to piece together federal support, state unemployment and private grants.

Providers who took care of children from low-income families and received state subsidies did receive payments from the state for 30 days after the fire. But that didn't get them very far. Gov. Gavin Newsom’s office then directed childcare workers to an unemployment phone line.

Providers who looked for help from FEMA and other agencies sometimes found a bureaucratic maze. Felisa Wright, a childcare provider who lost her home and business in the Eaton Fire, spent months trying to get the agency's support. She encountered a series of catch-22s. She was rejected when applying for a small business loan because she didn't make enough money. But to start making money again, she needed to reopen her childcare center.

In a statement, the agency said, “FEMA makes every effort to ensure that everyone eligible for assistance receives the help they need to recover,” and its program for assisting individuals has provided over $150 million to about 35,000 households.

The office of state Assemblymember Cecilia Aguiar-Curry, who co-chairs the select committee on childcare costs, said this fall that the committee will look at identifying legislation to help the childcare industry in times of natural disasters.

Providers say some kind of relief is necessary.

Hear the stories of two providers — Francisca Gunawardena and Felisa Wright — who both lost their homes and what their journeys reveal about recovery overall after the L.A. fires on the latest episode of Imperfect Paradise.

Payments from Southern California Edison — the utility whose equipment is believed to have started the Eaton Fire — could help some families rebuild their destroyed homes. But those payments also could land homeowners with a huge tax bill.

To address this problem, California Sen. Alex Padilla has introduced a bill that would make existing tax exemptions permanent for wildfire survivors.

Congress passed exemptions one year ago, but they’re set to expire at the end of 2025. Unless Congress approves new exemptions, homeowners who accept wildfire compensation next year could have their payouts taxed.

“When a fire survivor is wading through the ashes of their former home and thinking about how to rebuild their life, the last thing they should have to worry about is how they’re going to afford to pay taxes on any settlement they receive,” Padilla said Friday in a written statement.

Bill has bipartisan support 

The bill — co-sponsored by Republicans Cynthia Lummis of Wyoming and Tim Sheehy of Montana, along with Democrat Ron Wyden of Oregon — would extend the existing protections under a bill passed in 2024. Padilla introduced that bill to refund federal income tax payments on wildfire payouts from the Butte, North Bay and Camp fires.

As fire-ravaged communities approach the one-year anniversary of a disaster that destroyed more than 13,000 homes, homeowners in and around Altadena are facing tough choices on whether to join the compensation program set up by SoCal Edison.

Taking a payout could be a faster route to obtaining funds to aid with rebuilding. But recipients will forfeit their right to sue SoCal Edison for potentially greater compensation.

The compensation program has faced criticism from some survivors who say the utility is lowballing families in need of faster payouts.

What about the Palisades? And state taxes?

Palisades Fire survivors have not been offered compensation funds because that fire began with an alleged arson, not from any utility equipment malfunctioning.

California lawmakers already have passed a law exempting wildfire settlement payouts from state income tax until 2030.

The bill, as currently written, would apply to any federally declared disaster stemming from a wildfire that happened after the start of 2015. Payouts eligible for tax exemption would include any compensation for losses, expenses or damages not already covered by insurance.