The Brief

A new report commissioned by Olympics organizers estimates that the 2028 Games will generate at least $20 billion in economic output across Greater Los Angeles.

The analysis, prepared for LA28 by the nonprofit Los Angeles County Economic Development Corporation’s Institute for Applied Economics, looked at the economic effects of L.A. hosting the Olympics and Paralympics. It includes organizing committee spending, capital investments, publicly funded transportation and security investments, and tourism. 

In total, the report projects that new economic activity across Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino and Ventura counties could total somewhere between $20.5 billion and $25.4 billion and add around 126,000 and 152,000 jobs to the economy.

A second less conservative methodology employed by the researchers estimates the overall economic output could be even higher, between $35.4 and $40.6 billion and up to 224,000 new jobs.

“ Together, they provide a responsible range, not an exaggerated promise,” Stephen Cheung, CEO of the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corporation, said at a news conference announcing the report on Tuesday. “ If we work together with intention, the Games can leave Los Angeles with more than unforgettable memories. They can leave us with stronger businesses, greater opportunities, and a more connected regional economy.”

Despite the 2028 Games being advertised as a "no-build" Olympics, the biggest chunk of spending laid out in the report is on capital projects, including the $2.6 billion L.A. Convention Center renovation, billions in LAX improvements, major transit projects like Metro ExpressLanes on the 105 Freeway, and venue renovations, such as upgrades to Rose Bowl Stadium.

The report also estimates that around $5.7 billion of LA28’s spending will be in the five county region. LA28 has a $7.1 billion budget and has pledged to keep 75% of its spending in the Greater L.A. area, and put 25% toward small businesses.

“ That economic impact is going to be felt far and wide and across Los Angeles, as well as the Southern California region,” LA28 CEO Reynold Hoover said Tuesday.

The report is the second economic analysis forecasting the effects of the 2028 Games to come out this month. A separate report submitted to the L.A. County Board of Supervisors in early September estimated that the Games would produce more than $13 billion in direct spending and a total economic output of $19.2 billion in Los Angeles County alone.

The same report also laid out the potential uneven distribution of economic benefits to the region, including limited benefits for Olympic venue sites that are not tourist destinations and parts of Los Angeles being excluded from the Games altogether.

HR&A Advisors, the consultant group that put the report together, identified Carson, Pomona, the City of Industry and Exposition Park as locations that are hosting Olympic events, but that could end up being “passthrough areas.”

“Although these areas may be active during the day, they may struggle to capture spending from visitors who pass through but do not spend money outside the venue,” the report states.

The county report also questioned what economic benefits will flow to parts of L.A. County that will be disconnected from Olympic and Paralympic activities, like Antelope Valley and Southeast Los Angeles.

Meanwhile, the analysis found that L.A.’s typical tourist destinations — including downtown L.A., Old Town Pasadena, downtown Long Beach and the Venice Boardwalk — can expect to be active areas for economic activity during summer 2028.

On Tuesday, street safety advocates and families of victims of vehicle collisions demanded that Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass declare a state of emergency on traffic violence in the city.

Sandra Sanchez Loulakis’s son died last year after she said he was hit by a negligent driver.

“I’ve been struggling just to survive daily,” she said at the news conference organized by traffic safety nonprofit Streets are for Everyone. “This is what happens to a parent when they lose a child.”

The city has seen 8% more fatal traffic collisions this year than during the same period last year, according to LAPD data from the end of August.

Advocates said an emergency declaration would better coordinate resources to respond to traffic fatalities, which have exceeded the rate of homicides for the last three years.

“ This is not a matter of we don't know what to do,” Damian Kevitt, who leads Streets are for Everyone, said Tuesday. “This is a matter of we know exactly what to do. We’re just not making this a priority as a city.”

Kevitt said more than 1,250 people signed an open letter delivered to the mayor and L.A. City Council. One of the demands listed in the letter is for the city to restore transportation department staff.

Earlier this year, the city gave up $100 million in state grants to make streets safer because it did not have the personnel to complete the projects in compliance with state-mandated deadlines.

Draft executive directive on Vision Zero

It appears there had been momentum from the mayor’s office earlier this year to issue an executive directive recommitting the city to its Vision Zero goals of reducing traffic fatalities to zero.

According to emails from May shared with LAist, the mayor’s senior director of transportation told an activist that a draft executive directive was “under review” and expected to be released “within the next three weeks.”

The email was sent to Jonathan Hale, who organizes community members to paint crosswalks where there have been pedestrian-involved collisions.

The executive directive has yet to be released.

LAist submitted a public records request for drafts of the executive directive, but on Sept. 14, the mayor’s office responded saying it could not disclose any records.

“[The records] include drafts and/or deliberative process for which the public interest served in nondisclosure clearly outweighs the public interest served by the disclosure,” the office said.

The mayor’s office has not responded to requests for comment about the draft executive directive.

The Palisades and Eaton Fires last year destroyed thousands of homes in Los Angeles County. Thousands more were left standing, but choked with toxic fire residue.

On Tuesday, Gov. Gavin Newsom signed a package of bills that will make California the first state in the nation to establish smoke damage testing and cleaning standards for insurance companies.

Assembly Bills 1642 and 1795 will require insurers to test for smoke damage, cover the cost of cleaning contaminants, and keep paying for a homeowner’s alternative living expenses until the home is found safe to reoccupy.

The California Department of Toxic Substances Control will have until the end of 2028 to develop testing and cleaning standards for lead and asbestos, and until the end of 2029 to set rules for heavy metals and other pollutants.

Reaction to the bill

According to the state Department of Insurance, property owners filed 13,000 smoke damage claims for standing homes after the January 2025 fires. While insurers have covered testing and cleaning in many cases, other homeowners are still unable to return home as they battle with insurance companies over addressing smoke damage.

In a news release Tuesday, the governor and an author of one of the bills praised the changes to state law.

“These new protections will make insurer obligations clearer and give homeowners more financial flexibility when they need it most,” Newsom said.

Assemblymember John Harabedian said: “Science, not an insurance company’s opinions, will determine whether a home is safe.”

Insurance industry groups had opposed shifting rules and regulation away from the state Department of Insurance and to the Department of Toxic Substances Control.

Altadena residents pushed for change

Testing efforts by a group known as Eaton Fire Residents United found that lead, asbestos and heavy metals were still present in homes even after they were cleaned by professional remediation companies. Jane Lawton Potelle is the group’s executive director.

“California is leading the nation in how to recover safely after an urban wildfire,” she said in a news release about the laws’ passage.

Public health officials said smoke from the L.A. County fires was particularly toxic because it emanated from urban areas. The structures that burned often had lead paint and asbestos insulation.

The fires also destroyed cars, appliances and other human-made materials. This created more pollutants than smoke from fires in rural areas, which mainly burn through vegetation.

LAist covered the push to change smoke damage policies in a recent episode of our podcast Imperfect Paradise, which breaks down what these changes could mean for insurers, homeowners and how California adapts to climate change.

For years, California lawmakers and transit leaders have requested billions of dollars from the federal government to temporarily double L.A.’s bus fleet and support public transportation for the 2028 Olympics and Paralympics.

Those calls have grown increasingly desperate in recent months, with Los Angeles Metro saying time is running out to execute its plans.

Now, the transportation agency says that if it doesn’t get a guarantee that the money is secured by the end of the year, it won’t provide the extra buses. Instead, it would leave private Olympics organizing committee LA28 to come up with a new plan.

Metro staff laid out the timeline in a report submitted to the agency’s board that will be reviewed at a special meeting Wednesday.

“Transportation capacity cannot be procured overnight,” Metro wrote in a statement to LAist.

A looming funding deadline

If federal funds don’t materialize in time, LA28 could be left with a major logistical and financial challenge.

Metro, the countywide transportation agency, has thus far led planning for the enhanced bus service, which was seen as the cornerstone of the region’s strategy to get people around Los Angeles during the summer of 2028.

The board report outlines that Metro has, as of May, secured commitments from 28 transit agencies to loan or donate over 1,000 buses and more than 300 personnel to support the enhanced bus service.

In total, Metro has said it needs $2 billion from the federal government for the Games. Approximately half that appropriations request would be used to obtain, operate and maintain 1,750 buses — on top of its existing fleet — for the Olympics network.

Metro said that any additional buses it provides will depend on the amount of money it locks down. The agency told LAist that it needs to make decisions based on concrete funding well before the Games in order to secure the buses, operators and facilities.

LA28 also does not appear to be ready to pay for a temporary bus system, should federal funding never arrive. Its $7.1 billion budget does not include a line item for transit.

This in turn puts the city of L.A. at risk because Los Angeles is the financial backstop for the Games. L.A. and the state of California will cover cost overruns from the Olympics and Paralympics, should they occur.

LA28 CEO Reynold Hoover told LAist on Tuesday that he was not alarmed about Metro's impending deadline.

"[Metro CEO] Stephanie Wiggins and I are working really close together to work with the administration to find the funding," Hoover said. "I'm pretty confident that the administration and the Congress will find funding that Metro needs."

When asked if the Olympics could be put on without a supplementary bus system, Hoover told LAist that a bus program for the Olympics would be a part of the Games "one way or another in some scale or form."

What did Metro and LA28 agree to?

Metro can exit its role orchestrating the Olympics bus system according to a memorandum of understanding with LA28 outlining the parties’ obligations for the 2028 Games.

According to the agreement, approved by Metro’s board in March, Metro is not required to provide additional services beyond its status quo if it doesn’t secure supplementary funding for its enhanced bus service.

The September board report that will be the subject of Wednesday’s meeting outlines that without “funding certainty,” its agreement with LA28 will expire.

“The organizing committee will need to seek another delivery partner for spectator and workforce transportation,” the agency wrote in the board report.

This summer, lawmakers included $875 million for Olympics-related transportation needs in a spending bill that still needs to move through the appropriations process. According to the Metro report, that funding would be covered by rescinding money for passenger rail projects in other parts of the country, meaning it has an uphill battle passing through the legislature.

Jacie Prieto Lopez, an LA28 spokesperson, said in an emailed statement that Olympics organizers were working with Metro to “jointly engage key partners on Capitol Hill and the White House as appropriations and budget decisions are made.”

The Hurricane Marie-fueled surf that hit Southern California last week was just a taste of the coastal damage El Niño could bring over the next several months, experts warn.

The destructive waves, driven by a weather system hundreds of miles away in the Pacific Ocean, reached 12 feet at times over Labor Day weekend.

The surf damaged beachfront homes from Malibu to Orange County and triggered evacuation orders for dozens more. It also threatened coastal roads and temporarily suspended service along the Pacific Surfliner railway between San Clemente and Oceanside. And coastal emergencies are still in place in Laguna Beach and Dana Point.

But there’s a good chance this was just the beginning.

The National Weather Service says there is a more than 90% chance this year’s El Niño will be very strong. Scientists also predict an alarming convergence of climate forces to come along with it that could push sea levels and surf to record highs this winter.

Coastal erosion from these atmospheric forces could come even sooner, however, with El Niño-related sea level rise expected to hit Southern California as soon as Oct. 1.

Here’s a look at the factors experts say are converging with potentially devastating effects.

Kelvin waves

First, let’s talk about Kelvin waves.

Kelvin waves are large masses of warm water that move across the ocean, driven by the same high water temperatures near the equator that are behind the wider El Niño climate pattern.

In this case, the wave first moved eastward along the equator until it ran into Central and South America, where the landmass forced it to head north. Now, it’s working its way toward Southern California.

Kelvin waves bump up the sea level about 6 to 18 inches over a large area. In the open ocean, they aren’t particularly noticeable to the naked eye. Scientists use specialized equipment to detect them.

But when pushed up against the coast, they can create much more substantial sea level rise, and scientists say this Kelvin wave is likely to reach the Southern California coast by early next month.

This graphic shows the sea surface heights over 45 days between August and September as the Kelvin wave hit South America, then began its journey north along the coast of Central America. These number are compared to the 1993-2025 baseline sea levels over 45 days between August and September.

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Dillon J. Amaya

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High sea levels push waves farther inland, where they crash against the shoreline with greater force, making erosion worse.

“ Boy, if you have enough water level to support those waves so they dump right on your coast, they're right there,” said Timu Gallien, a UCLA environmental engineering professor who studies coastal erosion. “Now they're coming through your window, now they're on your front porch, quite literally, for the beachfront homes.”

Scientists also say multiple Kelvin waves are likely to come in a sequence, become trapped against the coast and build up sea levels even more.

King tides

El Niño’s warm oceans cause elevated sea levels on their own because warm water takes up more space than cold water. When combined with natural high tides, levels are raised even higher, creating destructive king tides.

This year, by late fall and winter, tides are projected to be at their highest levels in 18 years due to the natural cycle of the moon and planets.

Sea-level rise from the nearly decade-high tides is likely to combine with El Niño’s surge.

“That rides on top of the tide,” Gallien said. “ You've got the tides that are going up and down, then you've got this El Niño signal that goes up and down on top of that tide.”

Storms

Warm El Niño waters also drive storms, and scientists are predicting some of the highest ocean temperatures ever recorded.

“We're going to be experiencing record-breaking water temperatures for many, many months on end on the top of what is already a record-breaking marine heat wave,” said Daniel Swain, a UC climate scientist, during a webinar on El Niño predictions last week.

Warmer seawater evaporates faster, adding moisture in the air that can turn into rain. El Niño also shifts the jet stream, pushing more moisture into Southern California rather than its normal path toward the Pacific Northwest.

Warm waters also create more tropical storms in the eastern Pacific, making them stronger and longer lasting.

Like Hurricane Marie, surges from these storms can travel hundreds of miles until they slam into the California coast.