On charges he tried to assassinate Trump last year
By Greg Allen | NPR
Published September 23, 2025 12:03 PM
(
Lothar Speer
/
AP
)
Topline:
A federal jury today determined Ryan Routh was guilty of the attempted assassination of Donald Trump last year at his South Florida golf course.
About the verdict: Jurors convicted Routh on all five counts, including attempted assassination and weapons violations. Even though the rifle was never fired that day, federal lawyers say Routh had "intent" and made a "substantial step in the alleged attempt." He now faces up to life in prison.
How we got here: The verdict came after a trial that took two-and-a-half weeks, proceeding quicker than prosecutors and U.S. District Judge Aileen Cannon anticipated. The main reason was that Routh, acting as his own attorney, spent relatively little time cross-examining prosecution witnesses and called just three people to testify in his defense.
FORT PIERCE, Fla. — A federal jury determined Ryan Routh was guilty Tuesday of the attempted assassination of Donald Trump last year at his South Florida golf course.
Jurors convicted him on all five counts, including attempted assassination and weapons violations. Even though the rifle was never fired that day, federal lawyers say Routh had "intent" and made a "substantial step in the alleged attempt." He now faces up to life in prison.
Federal prosecutors rested their case last Friday after spending a total of seven days presenting 38 witnesses. They detailed what they say was Routh's planned attack against the then-GOP presidential candidate as he golfed at his West Palm Beach club on Sept. 15, 2024.
The verdict came after a trial that took two-and-a-half weeks, proceeding quicker than prosecutors and U.S. District Judge Aileen Cannon anticipated. The main reason was that Routh, acting as his own attorney, spent relatively little time cross-examining prosecution witnesses and called just three people to testify in his defense.
His defense, which took just a few hours, came after a prosecution case that lasted seven days and called 38 witnesses.
Judge Cannon cautioned Routh as he prepared to deliver his closing argument Tuesday that he would have to restrict his remarks to evidence introduced at the trial. But he repeatedly flouted those judicial guidelines, prompting objections from the prosecution and a warning from the judge.
Routh tried to explain to the jury why he offered such a limited defense. He said he wanted to subpoena twenty witnesses and introduce 500 exhibits, but rulings by the court prevented that. That led Judge Cannon to temporarily halt the proceedings and issue Routh a stern warning.
In his closing, Routh told the jury the case was about "intent and whether someone can actually pull the trigger and take someone's life." Acting as his own lawyer and referring to himself as "the defendant," Routh suggested to jurors that he had actually planned an attempt on Trump's life while the then-presidential candidate was golfing on the 5th hole, 375 yards from the sniper's hiding place. "The opportunity was there and the trigger was not pulled, "he said. "The crime was not committed."
This screengrab shows Ryan Routh speaking during an interview at a rally to urge foreign leaders and international organizations to help provide humanitarian corridors for the evacuation of civilians and Ukrainian servicemen in Kyiv on April 27, 2022, amid Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
(
Nicolas Garcia
/
AFP via Getty Images
)
Routh said he wasn't capable of taking someone's life. "Mere planning of something is not intent," he said. "It is only a dream, a fantasy," one he never intended to execute.
In his closing, prosecutor Christopher Browne methodically walked jurors through the trove of evidence of what he said were Routh's plans to assassinate Trump. On the question of Routh's intent, Browne said, "Why did he take these actions? Why did he load this rifle if his intent was not to kill?" In the rebuttal, prosecutor John Shipley reminded the jury that no one needs to be shot and no weapon needs to be fired for a charge of attempted assassination of a major presidential candidate.
In his opening, Shipley told jurors Routh wanted to ensure that voters would not be able to elect Donald Trump as president in 2024. "The defendant decided to take the choice away from the American voters," he said. The plot Routh is charged with, he said, "was carefully crafted and deadly serious."
Former Secret Service agent Robert Fercano, now with the Department of Homeland Security, said he foiled Routh's alleged attempt to shoot Trump. Fercano testified about his encounter with a man he first saw as a "face in the bushes" as Trump was golfing.
As he scanned the 6th hole of the golf course, ahead of where Trump was playing, he told the court, "I encountered what appeared to be the face of an individual (and) the barrel of a weapon protruding from the fence line."
Fercano testified he got off his golf cart and said, "Hey sir!" At first, he said, he thought he was possibly encountering a homeless person and there wasn't an imminent threat. In response, he said, "I heard what appeared to be a groan and the subject smiled at me."
Law enforcement officials work at the crime scene outside the Trump International Golf Club in West Palm Beach, Fla. on Sept. 16, 2024, the day after the attempted assassination of then-GOP presidential candidate Donald Trump.
(
Chandan Khanna
/
AFP via Getty Images
)
At about the same time, Fercano told jurors he saw a gun barrel protruding from the fence line, which moved toward him as he backed away. He says he also noticed ballistic "bulletproof vest" plates positioned on the fence. Fercano, an ex-Marine and trained marksman, said, "This appeared to be a textbook ambush scenario."
Another prosecution witness, FBI Supervisory Special Agent Kimberly McGreevy spent hours on the stand over two days. She detailed evidence that tracked Routh's activities a month prior to the attempted shooting.
McGreevy drew on data from Routh's cell phones — he had six of them — and surveillance camera video to track his movements. The agent testified that the accused moved between Mar-a-Lago, Trump's golf club, the airport where the president keeps his plane and a truck stop where Routh was living in his SUV.
The FBI agent said that during that time, "He was living at that truck stop, conducting physical and electronic surveillance … and stalking the former president."
McGreevy also detailed Routh's alleged purchase of the SKS-style rifle seized at the golf course by federal agents and his attempt to buy a more powerful weapon.
According to McGreevy's testimony, Routh sent a text to his girlfriend in Hawaii, asking, "How many bullets does an SKS rifle hold? An AK-47 can shoot to 500 meters. I have to get to 400."
Judge Cannon agreed to allow Routh to represent himself in the trial after hearings and motions in which he said he was unhappy with his court-appointed lawyers.
In his defense, he called two character witnesses (who discussed examples of what Routh said were his "peacefulness, gentleness and non-violence") and a gun expert. Michael McClay, an ex-Marine sniper, was presented to discuss a sniper's tactics and positioning.
McClay said that when he test-fired the SKS-style rifle left at the scene several months after Routh's arrest, it malfunctioned. The gun fired — but the second round in the magazine repeatedly jammed. Prosecutors attributed that to the effects of acid used by investigators to recover the gun's obliterated serial numbers.
Other testimony from McClay was less helpful to Routh's defense. The ex-Marine sniper visited the golf course and surveyed the area around the 6th hole where prosecutors say, "a sniper's hide" was set up just outside the fence. McClay told the court it offered what he called "a clear shot" to the 6th hole where Trump was soon to arrive.
Routh then asked about whether the gun would be effective firing at the 5th hole, where Trump was golfing at the time, an area much farther away. "Depending on the skill of the shooter," McClay said, "yes."
Before his arrest, Routh already had a criminal record, including a 2002 conviction in North Carolina for possessing an explosive device. He spent much of his life in North Carolina before moving to Hawaii. He was a strong supporter of Ukraine following the invasion by Russian troops. He has said he backed Trump for president in 2016 and regrets that decision.
The attempt on Trump's life was the second that year — following a shooting during a campaign rally in Butler, Pa. in July 2024. A gunman, perched on a building rooftop, fired as Trump spoke to supporters. Trump's ear was struck, and an attendee died. The gunman, 20-year-old Thomas Crooks, was killed by a Secret Service sniper.
Copyright 2025 NPR
The latest on the race between Luna and Villanueva
Lucas Brady Woods
covered Colorado politics before joining LAist this year.
Published November 3, 2026 8:33 PM
Incumbent Sheriff Robert Luna, left, and challenger Alex Villanueva, who lost his role as county sheriff to Luna in the 2022 election.
(
Trevor Stamp
/
For LAist
)
Topline:
The election rematch between Robert Luna and Alex Villanueva comes to a close, with voting ending at 8 p.m. on Election Day. Now L.A. County awaits the vote tally between Luna, the incumbent sheriff who defeated his challenger in 2022, and Villanueva, who is making a bid to return to the Sheriff's Department's top job.
The campaign: The candidates painted starkly different pictures of the department — the largest sheriff’s agency in the country — during the campaign. Villanueva claimed the department has fallen apart on Luna’s watch. Luna argued his leadership has brought down violent crime and cut homicides by 25% in areas patrolled by his deputies. No matter the winner, the department faces a slew of challenges.
Read on ... for the latest results.
L.A. County Sheriff Robert Luna took an early lead in the race to head the department he’s run for the last four years.
Returns in the sheriff’s race heavily favored Luna over challenger and predecessor Alex Villanueva after polls closed. A win for Luna was largely expected going into the election after he handily beat Villanueva in 2022.
What to keep in mind about these numbers
For LAist's charts showing vote counts, we get numbers directly from the L.A. County and Orange County registrars of voters for local races. Totals are updated on our site as soon as possible after the registrars provide new tallies. For statewide races, counts come from the California Secretary of State's Office.
Keep in mind that, in tight races particularly, the winner may not be determined for days or weeks after election day. That's because early voting and mail-in ballots have fundamentally reshaped how votes are counted and when election results are known. The upshot: Ballots can be postmarked up to and including Election Day. They're counted as long as the ballot arrives within seven days of the election and that window contributes to the lag time before results are announced.
In L.A. County, for example, daily updates on the counting are expected to take place at least once a day — usually around 5 p.m. — through Nov. 13. (There will be multiple updates on Nov. 5 and 6.) Then, the once-a-day counts will resume again on Nov. 17, 19, 25 and 27. The office is scheduled to certify election results by Friday, Nov. 27. In Orange County, There will be multiple updates after the polls close, and then daily updates weekdays at 5 p.m. until results are scheduled to be certified on or before Dec. 3.
The California Secretary of State is scheduled to certify the election results on Dec. 11.
Our priority during the vote count will be sharing outcomes and election calls only when they have been thoroughly checked and vetted by journalists. To that end, we will rely on official results and report when candidates concede. Otherwise, we rely on NPR and the Associated Press for race calls. We will not report the calls or projections of other news outlets. You can find more about NPR's and the AP's process for counting votes and calling races here and here.
The background
The candidates painted starkly different pictures of the department — the largest sheriff’s agency in the country — during the campaign.
Villanueva claimed the department has fallen apart on Luna’s watch. Luna argued his leadership has brought down violent crime and cut homicides by 25% in areas patrolled by his deputies.
No matter the winner, the department faces a slew of challenges.
Luna has been criticized for his management of county jails. The U.S. Department of Justice recently launched an investigation into conditions at the Men’s Central Jail and, last year, California’s attorney general filed a lawsuit alleging inhumane and unconstitutional conditions inside county jails.
The Sheriff’s Department also is dealing with ongoing staffing challenges, allegations of excessive use of force, deputy gangs and ongoing friction with the Sheriff Civilian Oversight Commission.
The next sheriff will also have to help oversee security for the 2028 Olympic Games in and around Los Angeles.
This year’s race was a rematch of the 2022 election, in which Luna unseated then-incumbent Villanueva by 23 percentage points.
Villanueva’s term was marked by clashes with county supervisors and criticism over investigations he launched into critics, including an L.A. Times journalist who covered the department.
After he left office, Villanueva was placed on a "do not rehire" list after the County Equity Oversight Panel found that he violated discrimination and harassment policies during his term. Villanueva denied the allegation.
You ask, and we'll answer: Whether it's about who's funding the campaigns or how to track your ballot, we're here to help you understand the 2026 election.
Gubernatorial candidate Xavier Becerra speaks during his election night watch party in Los Angeles on June 2, 2026. Photo by
(
Jae C. Hong
/
AP Photo
)
Topline:
Xavier Becerra is California’s next governor after easily securing a victory that ensures Democrats continue their 16-year streak controlling the state.
About the call: The Associated Press declared Becerra the winner moments after polls closed.
He makes history: Becerra will be the first Latino to serve as governor in a century and a half, and the first to be elected to the seat.
Xavier Becerra is California’s next governor after easily securing a victory that ensures Democrats continue their 16-year streak controlling the state.
The Associated Press declared Becerra the winner shortly after polls closed.
He will be the first Latino to serve as governor in a century and a half, and the first to be elected to the seat.
Becerra’s win caps a whirlwind and unexpected rise for a mild-mannered, risk-averse politician who just eight months ago polled so low he was being pressured to drop out of the race.
But when the leading Democratic contender in a crowded primary dropped out in April over sexual assault allegations, Becerra was the mainstream Democrat whom party insiders and interest groups coalesced behind the most. By the time he and Hilton finished first and second in the primary election in June, he was already being considered the presumptive next governor of California.
In a comfortable position in the polls and facing a GOP opponent whom he could easily tie to President Donald Trump, Becerra avoided sweeping policy promises and instead focused on his longtime experience in government.
With Becerra’s election, it’s unlikely the state will significantly depart from the policies of outgoing Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom, including in its longstanding disputes with the Trump administration. Becerra has said he supports changes Newsom and the Democratic-led Legislature have enacted to speed up housing construction, and he generally supports the state’s transition to clean energy — but also wants to find ways to lower gas prices.
He is, however, likely to differ in style compared to his predecessor. Newsom’s signature was ambition; he swept into office eight years ago with a litany of goals such as millions of new housing units and progressive moonshots like single-payer healthcare, not all of which he achieved. Becerra has avoided such promises, instead speaking generally about prioritizing working families, and says he doesn’t want to lose any public trust by overstating what he could accomplish.
Hilton, meanwhile, rolled out a litany of deregulatory policies and called for tax cuts, abolishing the Department of Motor Vehicles, canceling the high-speed rail project and ending the state’s climate goals in an aggressive campaign of lowering the cost of living. But he faced long odds running as a Republican in a blue state, during an election in which Democrats were expected to sweep offices nationwide.
He represented the best hope in years for a GOP victory. He has raised more than $33 million to Becerra’s $38 million and is running hard on a series of ambitious promises to lower costs by slashing regulations and taxes. He portrayed Becerra as the embodiment of the California political status quo, someone who would make decisions that benefit influential special interest groups like organized labor.
“It’s the people against the machine,” he said of his campaign in a virtual town hall last week.
His message of change, promises to slash gas prices and frequent invocations of Californians moving out-of-state resonated with Brad Gerig, who voted in Roseville last week. It was the first time Gerig, 34, could recall voting for a Republican, he said. The EMT and firefighter said he wants to be able to afford to stay and raise a family in California, so he was willing to “try something different.”
“I think it’s worth a shot,” Gerig said. “I think for everybody living in this area there’s an inherent angst for a little bit better. There’s no reason it should be as expensive as it is.”
But Hilton has struggled to rid himself of the baggage from President Donald Trump’s endorsement in a state Trump lost by 20 percentage points in 2024.
Becerra has reminded voters of Hilton’s link to Trump at every turn, and cast himself as a fighter who would, like Newsom, challenge decisions in Washington such as Trump’s aggressive deportation campaign.
He has dismissed Hilton as unserious and primarily campaigned on his longtime experience representing Los Angeles in Congress and serving as state attorney general and as U.S. health secretary. Those roles have earned him a wide swath of influential liberal allies.
“Xavier Becerra has stood with us for more than 30 years,” said Tony Hoang, executive director of the LGBTQ+ rights organization Equality California, at an event in San Francisco last week.
He highlighted Becerra’s role as one of the small minority of congressmembers who voted against the anti-gay marriage Defense of Marriage Act in 1996.
At the same event, Becerra touted his opposition to Trump.
“Donald Trump is on this ballot,” he said, without naming his opponent once. “We see right through you, Donald Trump. And we see through all those MAGA friends and relatives who are trying to push that agenda on us.”
Becerra’s comfortable standing is reflected in the relatively muted nature of his campaign: Becerra agreed to meet for only one debate with Hilton this fall. He has spent much of his time campaigning not for himself but against a Republican-backed voter ID measure and on behalf of other California Democrats.
The election comes at a particularly delicate time for California.
Street homelessness rose for years and only began to decline again in 2025. Wildfires have made it harder to buy homeowners insurance. Inflation, much of it attributable to Trump’s war in Iran, tariffs and immigration crackdown, have added to the already-high cost of living.
The state budget, always subject to the boom and bust of the stock market, has become particularly dependent on the fortunes of the artificial intelligence industry. Under Newsom, the state has made aggressive regulatory moves to curb the use of climate-warming fossil fuels. But despite recent polling that shows a majority of Californians support the green transition, fewer are willing to pay higher prices for energy than were a decade ago.
And the state’s liberal politics have often put it in the crosshairs of the Trump administration, which has withheld federal funds, challenged California’s environmental policies and attempted to intervene in this election.
Both candidates agree the state has become unaffordable for working families. That’s about all they agree on.
Becerra has proposed mostly incremental changes to existing state policies, such as continuing recent efforts by Newsom and lawmakers to reduce the bureaucratic hurdles to approving new housing construction.
He wants to expand state mortgage assistance programs and said he’s committed to the clean energy transition, but open to delays or tweaks to trim costs. He has not endorsed any new taxes on residents, but wants the state to assess a fee on corporations whose employees make so little they qualify for public healthcare.
Hilton, a British American who was once a close adviser to former British Prime Minister David Cameron, ran on a deregulatory agenda, promising to slash environmental rules and the gas tax and allow more home construction on exurban, undeveloped land.
One of his signature campaign promises was to eliminate the income tax on residents’ first $150,000 in earnings and make the income tax flat above that — amounting to an expensive tax cut for the highest earners that he’s said he would pay for with spending cuts. It’s one of his many promises that would need legislative approval, and he has not said how he would get Democrats in the Capitol to support them.
If you're enjoying this article, you'll love our daily newsletter, The LA Report. Each weekday, catch up on the 5 most pressing stories to start your morning in 3 minutes or less.
15,000 Cal State union members must now vote on it
Yusra Farzan
reports on issues affecting current and future college students, their families and communities.
Published November 3, 2026 4:58 PM
Students walk on campus at Cal State Long Beach.
(
Brian Feinzimer
/
LAist
)
Topline:
California State University staff began voting Tuesday to ratify a deal their union reached with the university system over the weekend. If the 15,000 members of the California State University Employees Union vote to ratify the agreement, the Board of Trustees will formally approve it at its next meeting.
Why it matters: Union members — which include non-faculty staff from administrators to janitors — could start  receiving a bonus check of around $3,500 by December if the deal passes, according to Catherine Hutchinson, CSU Employees Union president, as well as pay raises.
Who's unhappy: Bethany Price, president of the union chapter at Cal State Long Beach, will be voting against ratifying the agreement because it doesn't fully address the issue of temporary contracts, which she feels are being abused.
What's next: If ratified, the agreement will be in effect till 2029.
California State University staff began voting Tuesday to ratify a deal their union reached with the university system over the weekend. If the around 15,000 members of the California State University Employees Union authorize the agreement, the Board of Trustees will formally approve it at their next meeting.
Union members — who include non-faculty staff from administrators to janitors — could start receiving a bonus check of around $3,500 by December, as well as pay raises, according to Catherine Hutchinson, CSU Employees Union president.
The agreement allows for implementation of the salary step scale, an incremental pay scale based on the job grade and years of service.
“The amount of money that we're receiving this year and the correction of our step placements and eligible employees getting put properly on steps, it was worth it to sign a TA [tentative agreement] now,” she said.
In a statement, a CSU spokesperson said, “The CSU is pleased to have reached a tentative agreement with the California State University Employees Union. The agreement would complete implementation of the negotiated salary step system, with employees placed on their target salary steps retroactive to July 1, 2026, while providing meaningful compensation improvements.”
Bethany Price, president of the union chapter at Cal State Long Beach, said the new agreement will give her a financial boost.
“My salary would move me to the end range of the position that I'm in, and I've been in the same position for over 20 years and seen movement in my salary only in those times when the union negotiated salary increases,” she said.
Mixed feelings about the deal
Price will be voting against ratifying the agreement, however.
 "For those of us who work on this campus at Cal State Long Beach, it does not address one of the biggest issues, which is the abuse of temporary contracts by our system,” Price said.
Many staff employed at Cal State Long Beach in positions such as administrative coordinators are in full-time roles but on temporary contracts, “which means that they can be curtailed at the discretion of management, and that they can be non-renewed for no cause or no purpose,” Price said.
Hutchinson said under the new contract, like the old, CSU is allowed to employ a person for four years on a temporary contract.
“We have some campuses, such as Cal State Long Beach, that abuse that, because what happens is if you have a break in service, the temp status restarts,” she said. “So what campuses will do, is they will have that person for 11 months, say 'Oh, we don't have enough money,' break the service, and then maybe a couple months later say, 'Oh, we got some funding again. We'll hire you back.'”
The new deal, Hutchinson said, contains a provision that CSU and the union will form a working group to address temporary employment.
Price said she is “spicy” about this new deal because three years ago the contract also called for a separate committee on temporary contracts, and, she said, nothing happened. “Instead what we've seen on this campus is an increase in the abuse.”
 "When the bargaining team says that this is the best we can get at this point, then I have to trust them,” she said. “It doesn't mean that I have to take my vote and put it in the yes column for this tentative agreement that I don't believe serves this campus.”
If ratified, the new contract will run through 2029.
Some of the key storylines to watch will center around various voters groups that have soured on President Trump during his second turn out.
With so many races underway, here's how to get better idea of how the night might go. Watch for:
The early bellwethers for Republican turnout and the Latino vote
Do Republicans get 46% with independents?
Black voter turnout in key states
The margin with young voters
In Texas, the keys will be the difference between Gov. Greg Abbott (R) and Ken Paxton's (R) vote totals — and the Latino vote in South Texas
Party identification
Keep reading... for the key indicators to be watching for tonight.
It can be hard to know what to focus on in midterm elections. There are so many races, from elections for governor and senator to the House and state legislatures. For a better idea of how the night might go to see which party might control Congress, here are six things to watch:
1. The early bellwethers for Republican turnout and the Latino vote
There are two states, Indiana and Kentucky, that will see results in the 6 p.m. ET hour. And then there's Florida, which is split between the Eastern and Central time zones. But most of the state is on Eastern time. So lots of House race results will be coming in during the 7 p.m. ET hour, even if statewide contests like the Senate and governors races won't be called at the earliest until 8 p.m. ET.
Some races to watch for early indicators of what might come later in the evening — Indiana's 5th Congressional District, Kentucky's 6th and Florida's 22nd and 27th. Indiana's 5th and Kentucky's 6th are seats held by Republicans that are more competitive now than at the beginning of the cycle. If these are close or tipping to Democrats, it could be a sign of low Republican turnout and a bigger Democratic wave.
Florida's 22nd is held by a Democrat but redrawn to tip in Republicans' favor. Trump won Florida's 27th by double-digits so this heavily Latino district could be an indicator of how this key subgroup votes.
2. Do Republicans get 46% with independents?
Independents are a key swing group, but they are also a lower-propensity voting group in midterms.
It used to be that Republicans had to win a bigger share of independents before the Trump era. Mitt Romney, for example, won 55% of independents in 2012 but lost the presidential election. But there's been a political realignment in this country with blue-collar white voters trending toward Trump, fewer people identifying as Democrats and better-educated white voters shifting toward Democrats.
So in the decade since Trump has been on the political scene, Republicans have done well when they win at least 46% of independents. When they haven't, they've lost.
3. Black voter turnout in key states
The Michigan Senate race is important for control of the Senate. If Republicans flip it, the magic number for Democrats goes from four to five, meaning Democrats would have to win five seats held by Republicans to win control of the Senate.
For Abdul El-Sayed (D) to win in Michigan, a key is going to be Black voters in Wayne County. If he runs up the score in and around Detroit, he has a path to victory, but if he doesn't, it becomes that much harder — and it's been an area of vulnerability for him.
During the Trump era, Democrats have needed 68% or more in Wayne County to win Michigan unless, like Sen. Elissa Slotkin in 2024, they can overperform in the suburbs.
Wayne County Democratic margins 2024 Slotkin 63% Win (11% share)
2024 Harris 62% Loss
2020 Biden 68% Win (12%)
2020 Peters 68% Win
2018 Stabenow 69% Win (15%)
2016 Clinton 66% Loss (13%)
4. The margin with young voters
Voters 18 to 29 see a drastic drop off in turnout between presidential and midterm elections. During presidential races since 1992, 43% of registered young voters cast ballots. But in midterms, that falls to 21%, just 1 in 5 who show up at the polls.
But they are crucial to Democratic success.In the last 20 years, when Democrats won this group by more than 20 points, they have done well, winning presidencies or making gains in midterms. The only exception was 2022, but arguably, the strong margin Democrats won with young voters that year, helped them stem what could have been a much larger Republican tide. That year, Democrats lost nine House seats, but gained a Senate seat.
Democratic margin with voters 18-29, election result 2024 +11, Trump wins presidency
2022 +28, Republicans win House, Democrats gain Senate seat
2020 +25, Biden wins presidency
2018 +35, Democrats win House
2016 +19, Trump wins presidency
2014 +11, Republicans expand House majority, win Senate
2012 +23, Obama wins re-election
2010 +17, Republicans win House
2008 +34, Obama wins presidency
2006 +22, Democrats win House
5. In Texas, the keys will be the difference between Gov. Greg Abbott (R) and Ken Paxton's (R) vote totals – and the Latino vote in South Texas
Given past polling errors in Texas that underestimated the Republican vote, there's a healthy skepticism that Democrat James Talarico's margin of error lead in polling averages is enough to win.
There was lots of enthusiasm in 2018 for Beto O'Rourke's (D) 2018 bid against an unpopular Republican senator in Ted Cruz, but Cruz still won, although by less than 3 percentage points. No Democrat has won statewide in Texas since 1994, and no Democrat has been elected to the Senate from Texas in 38 years.
For it to actually happen in this state Trump won by 14 points in 2024, two groups are key – Republicans and Latinos. Ken Paxton (R) is unpopular. Republican Gov. Greg Abbot is also facing a tight race, but he's thought to be in better shape than Paxton. In 2018, Cruz won about 400,000 fewer votes than Abbott, but Cruz still won by more than 200,000 votes. So watch if the difference between Abbott and Paxton is more than 400,000 for Talarico.
Voters cast their ballots in Anchorage, Alaska on Nov. 1, 2026.
(
Christian Moorman
/
AFP via Getty Images
)
The second part of Talarico's path to victory runs through South Texas. Statewide, O'Rourke won 64% of Latinos in 2018, and they were 26% of the electorate, according to exit polls. If Talarico is north of both of those, that's how he wins the seat. Talarico would need to improve on O'Rourke's totals in these Latino-heavy counties: Cameron 63%, Hidalgo 69%, Webb 71%, Nueces 51%. As a bonus, watch the fast-growing and heavily populated Dallas suburbs – Collin 47%, Denton 46%, Tarrant 51%.
6. Party identification
Because of the political realignment that's taken place in the Trump era, watch how people identify in exit polls.
The percentage of those saying they were Democrats hit a low in 2024 at 31%. That trend is happening as the base of the Democratic Party has become more liberal and more disaffected with their own leadership. This year, though, Democrats were among the highest in enthusiasm levels, according to the latest NPR poll, but they are likely going to have to be far higher than 31% as a share of the electorate to do well.
Democrats as a share of the electorate
2024 31%
2022 33%
2020 37%
2018 37%
2016 37%
2014 35%
2012 38%
2010 39%
2008 39%
That's quite possible given the opposition to Trump in this election is sky high – 53% of likely voters in the latest NPR poll said they strongly disapproved of the job he's doing. That is very likely to be a unifying force for the left in this election. As the saying goes, the enemy of my enemy is my friend.
Along these lines, it's going to be important to watch races like the Michigan Senate race and the contest for Michigan's 7th Congressional District, both of which have very progressive Democratic candidates trying to win in purple places. Democratic unity – and the party's ideological future – is going to be a key storyline of the 2028 presidential primary and could define the American left for years to come.
Copyright 2026 NPR