The Brief

Recent storms have brought an epic run of big, surfable waves to Southern California. But they’ve also wreaked havoc on beaches, surfside homes and coastal infrastructure.

The prospect of El Niño bringing even more volatile weather raises a serious question about the chosen venue for surfing at the 2028 Olympics: Will there still be a beach at Lower Trestles when the Games roll around?

The World Surf League held its annual competition this month at Trestles, a beach south of San Clemente that straddles Orange and San Diego Counties. The competition took place a few days after Hurricane Marie’s remnants hit the Southern California coast.

High tides and big surf shut down coastal rail tracks just north of Trestles. Waves pummeled beachfront homes in nearby Dana Point, rendering at least 10 of them uninhabitable.

At Lower Trestles, the surf break where the competition took place, seawater flooded the narrow beach, washed out the access road and pooled around several of the temporary structures.

Compared with other parts of the coast, the damage was minimal. But as sea levels continue to rise, organizers of the 2028 Olympics will need to address some tough questions, especially with more hurricanes and what forecasters are calling a “Super El Niño” on the way: Where will ticket holders watch the event? How much infrastructure can the beach hold? And how will organizers get equipment there?

Getting to Trestles Beach generally requires a long walk or bike ride from the nearest parking lot. Its lack of development helps keep the area resilient to extreme weather.

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What makes Trestles a world-class surf beach

SoCal Olympic surfing hopefuls were stoked when LA28 organizers announced the surfing event would take place at Lower Trestles.

“It’s a dream,” said local pro Griffin Colapinto, who was surrounded by autograph-seeking kids as he exited the water during the Trestles competition earlier this month. Colapinto, who’s from San Clemente, competed for the U.S. at the 2024 Paris Games.

“Focus on getting there, and then go for gold,” he told LAist of his dreams for LA28.

The potential hometown advantage excites surfers like Colapinto. So does Trestles’ reputation for delivering consistently good waves. People familiar with surf competitions say that dependability is clutch for international sporting events that depend heavily on environmental conditions.

The relatively pristine San Mateo Creek watershed is the secret to Trestles' world-class waves.

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The spot’s consistency stems from its location at the mouth of San Mateo Creek, within San Onofre State Beach. When flowing creeks and rivers meet a slower-moving body of water — in this case, the ocean — they drop heavy materials like rocks and boulders, which eventually form a cobblestone reef.

This is a defining feature of prized surf spots along the California coast, said Chad Nelson, CEO of the Surfrider Foundation, a coastal conservation group.

“That's true at Rincon, at Cardiff, at Malibu,” he said. “All these iconic places are these cobble river mouths.” That underwater topography makes for amazing waves, Nelson said.

Also key to the excellent waves at Trestles is the lack of development upstream along San Mateo Creek. Nelson called it “one of the last natural surf spots in urbanized Southern California.”

Its isolation — there is no paved public road leading to the beach, much less a beachfront parking lot — bodes well for the area’s resilience to extreme weather. At the same time, it presents some conundrums for staging a major international sporting event.

‘We’ve had way worse’

Matt Riggs has helped set up the beachside infrastructure for many surf competitions at Trestles. He said the damage from Hurricane Marie in 2020 was "way worse" than this year's hurricane of the same name.

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The beach at Lower Trestles is a narrow strip of sand, about 30 to 40 feet wide, backed by protected wetlands. The coastal railroad runs through the wetlands behind the beach.

On each of the four days before the World Surf League’s competition began earlier this month, the tide at south Orange County beaches was high enough to flood part of the beachside competition area.

On one of those mornings, Matt Riggs, a contractor for the event, was out at the beach early with a small tractor, hauling sand and dirt to rebuild the beachfront access road the surf had washed away.

“I'll probably have to do [it] again tomorrow morning since there's another high tide and another swell,” he told LAist. Riggs and other workers also had to resecure some of the elevated structures used for watching and judging the competition.

But he said the damage wasn’t bad compared to flooding at the competition a few years back. “We’ve had way worse,” he said.

“These stairs here,” Riggs said, pulling up a photo of a previous year's damage on his phone, “they fell into the ocean.” (edited)

Planning around unpredictable weather

Much is still unknown about the planning efforts for the Olympic surfing event in 2028. How many tickets will be sold? How will spectators get to the beach? What about the many journalists who will want to cover the event, and all of their equipment?

LA28 declined an interview request for this story. But spokesperson Jacie Prieto Lopez emailed a statement saying, in part, “We are actively monitoring developments. … With less than two years until the Games, we remain focused on our shared planning efforts to ensure the safe and successful delivery of the 2028 surfing competitions."

One of LA28’s closest planning partners is California State Parks, which leases the land that includes Trestles from the U.S. Navy and Marine Corps Base Camp Pendleton. Scott Kibbey, State Parks superintendent for the Orange Coast District, noted that surf competitions have taken place at the spot for decades. They’ve had to adjust, he said, as the coastal environment shifts.

“This is a dynamic area,” Kibbey said. “Right now we're looking at a beach that is much narrower than it has been in recent years, and we're letting nature kind of dictate how we plan for future events.”

The last few years have been busy for Kibbey and his staff, as storms and rising seas have posed increasingly thorny challenges. In June, heavy surf and high tides caused a lifeguard stand to collapse at Crystal Cove State Park. One of the park’s historic beachfront cabins was also damaged, and the public access trail flooded.

“Old Man’s,” a beloved surf spot at San Onofre State Beach south of Trestles, has suffered severe erosion in recent years, forcing officials to rethink public access to the beach.

At the same time, record-high temperatures, fueled in part by El Niño, sent visitors flocking to state beaches this summer, straining staff and infrastructure.

“Our state park resources, our staff have been hit incredibly hard,” Kibbey said.

High winds and rough surf didn't deter beachgoers in Malibu this summer.

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Environmental concerns

Kibbey said sustainability is at the forefront of planning for the Olympic surfing event. Surfers and others who cherish the spot will be watching closely, given past environmental activism at Trestles, plus concerns that erupted over the previous Olympic surfing event at the Paris 2024 Games, which took place in Tahiti.

Two decades ago, surfers, conservationists and members of the Acjachemen Nation joined to fight a toll road that would have cut through San Mateo Creek, potentially destroying some of the tribe’s most sacred sites and ruining Trestles’ perfect waves. A few years into the project’s public approval process, several thousand people showed up to a California Coastal Commission hearing to voice opposition to the project.

“It was an epic fight,” said Nelson from Surfrider. Given that history, Nelson said his group met the news that Trestles would host Olympic surfing with a mix of excitement “and a little bit of trepidation.”

Nelson noted that surf competitions at the famed big wave spot Mavericks in northern California have brought problems in the past. In 2006, hundreds of spectators walked out onto the reef and scaled coastal bluffs to watch the contest, trampling the delicate ecosystem.

At a Mavericks' event in 2010, huge waves tore through contest infrastructure, knocking people off one of the watch towers and injuring 15 spectators.

Environmental concerns also tinged preparations for the Olympic surfing event at the 2024 Paris Games, especially over the drilling of a new judging tower into the delicate coral reef.

“That was definitely a cautionary tale,” Nelson said. Still, he added, “I'm pretty confident that we're going to be able to find a solution down here that's well managed and takes this special place into consideration.”

Erosion has also shut down train traffic through San Clemente State Beach numerous times in recent years.

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El Niño ‘not all bad’ for coastlines

After Hurricane Marie, the cities of Laguna Beach, San Clemente and Dana Point declared states of emergency to address coastal damage. Orange County and Gov. Gavin Newsom followed with their own emergency declarations, in part to prepare for potentially worse damage from even stronger El Niño effects in the coming months.

The Orange County Transportation Agency recently announced plans to place 690,000 cubic yards of sand on beaches just north of Trestles in hopes of protecting the coastal rail corridor.

Kibbey, the State Parks superintendent, said the expected heavy precipitation from El Niño could also bring some benefits. If San Mateo Creek flows strong enough to reach the ocean, he said, “it would bring a bunch of sand here naturally.”

Its beach may be narrowing, but Trestles has actually fared much better than its neighbors, thanks largely to its natural state, Nelson from Surfrider said.

“Usually the problem isn't coastal erosion,” he said. “It's when coastal erosion meets human infrastructure.”

No matter what Trestles looks like in 2028, Nelson thinks the Olympic spotlight will bring more benefits than drawbacks.

Surfing is one of the only Olympic sports “completely reliant on the health of the coastal ecosystem,” he said. “If a million people learn the lesson that we need to protect our coasts and protect our ocean, or millions, then I think that's probably ultimately to our advantage.”

Los Angeles has handily broken its record for most days of coastal flooding in a year. And that’s without including October in the tally and with a wet El Niño winter ahead — a worrying sign for coastal homes and infrastructure.

Researchers can’t yet project how many more days of flooding we’ll have in 2026 — but we’re already well ahead of what the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s models had forecast up to this point.

NOAA oceanographer Karen Kavanaugh said models had predicted three to six flood days between May 2026 and April 2027. Those models took El Niño and sea level rise into account. She said that there have already been nine flood days in that window and added that the 12 flood days so far in the calendar year are “abnormally high.”

The number of days of coastal flooding observed at NOAA’s tide gauge in San Pedro is the highest recorded since observations started being taken in 1923. The previous record was set at nine in 1983, during another El Niño event.

When might we see more flooding?

Kavanaugh couldn’t say with certainty when flooding might occur, but noted that high-risk times ahead coincide with Thanksgiving and Christmas. Around then, the moon will be at its closest point to the Earth. The stronger gravitational pull from the moon causes what are commonly known as king tides, a nonscientific term for the highest predicted tides of the year.

In addition to these factors, the wide range of events affecting our tides this year, including storms, climate change, El Niño and related Kelvin waves, could very well cause other flooding events or cause the existing ones to become stronger.

Kavanaugh said a combination of factors — specifically Kelvin waves and astronomical high tides — was exactly what was responsible for the flooding seen this week.

“That could happen, perhaps, again in November and December if we have another pulse of a Kelvin wave,” Kavanaugh said.

Flooding inundated coastal communities around Southern California this week, including Orange County's Sunset Beach.

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How high will the tides be?

Unfortunately, Kavanaugh said, there’s no way to predict the severity of upcoming king tide events at this moment in time.

“But as we move closer to an event, there are good models that the National Weather Service uses to forecast flooding,” she added. “But they need it to be within seven days, sometimes shorter timelines.”

How to prepare for high tide conditions

Kavanaugh recommended keeping an eye on National Weather Service reports for the latest information and predictions. (There are separate pages for Los Angeles and Orange counties.)

Kavanaugh stressed that, given this year's unpredictability so far, people should be as prepared as possible.

“It's an unusual type of phenomenon to plan for for some communities,” she said. “We're used to planning for a big storm, maybe, and flooding from that, but not planning for, ‘Oh, it's gonna be beautiful sunny weather, and also you might have flooding on the roads.’”

Kavanaugh also recommended paying close attention to local emergency officials’ guidance and being mindful not to park cars in low-lying areas that could end up being inundated.

“If [local officials are] asking you to get sandbags or things like that, keep those sandbags because you might need them again in a few weeks,” she said.

The federal government must pull three taxpayer-funded Trump administration ads that appear to have been made for political or propaganda purposes, including one touting the president’s claim that every American will get $5,000 if Republicans keep control of Congress in the upcoming election, a judge ruled Friday.

U.S. District Judge Jennifer L. Rochon in New York sided with a coalition, including the nonpartisan watchdog Common Cause, in ordering the government to take down the advertisements titled “$5,000 to Americans,” “Every Democrat Voted Against No Tax on Tips,” and “Cost of Socialism.” She declined to pull several other ads.

She said the three ads must be taken off official government websites, including social media sites such as YouTube, Instagram and the like. Rochon also ordered the cancellation of any plans for the airing or distribution of the ads through authorized third parties, including by President Donald Trump’s flagship super PAC, MAGA Inc.

Rochon was nominated to the court by then-President Joe Biden, a Democrat, and once served as a law clerk for Trump’s sister, the late Maryanne Trump Barry, a longtime federal appeals court judge.

Responding to the ruling, White House spokesperson Lauren Bis said: “This Biden-appointed activist judge issued a lawless order to stop the administration from sharing patriotic videos.”

Rochon ruled during a hearing in which she considered expanding a temporary restraining order she issued two weeks ago, when she banned a series of ads that glorify Trump and echo his political messaging going into the midterms.

The plaintiffs sought the removal of at least 13 ads, but Rochon only ordered that the three be pulled, at least for now. She noted that the Government Accountability Office has observed that there are instances when the president’s office is entitled to inform the public of its policies, justify its policies and respond to attacks on its policies.

Rochon said the plaintiffs were seeking to restrict the office in ways that were “broad and far reaching” and she found herself concluding that the government will ultimately prevail legally with regard to many of the ads.

The White House has defended the ads as public service announcements akin to what past administrations have made to promote various policies. But the recent ads differ from many past public service announcements because they don’t try to help the public benefit from specific government programs, according to the plaintiffs.

After Rochon issued the order, she noted that she was doing so on a Friday afternoon and that the government would have no excuse to delay taking them down immediately.

A government lawyer acknowledged that he would be able to immediately notify relevant individuals responsible for taking down the ads.

“Everyone is here. Everyone can hear my order. No one is at the theater,” the judge quipped in a reference to excuses offered by government lawyers when her recent order, issued over a weekend, wasn’t immediately obeyed.

Rochon said irreparable harm could result to the plaintiffs if she didn’t ban the ads while the court case proceeds, though she noted that she could reverse herself and restore the ads or ban additional ads after hearing more evidence in the coming weeks.

“This court can neither postpone an election nor turn back the clock,” Rochon said after concluding that the plaintiffs were likely to succeed on their claims regarding the ads and would suffer harm if they were not taken down.

“This temporary restraining order will stop the administration’s wanton disregard for the law while the court hears the full case,” said Bradley Girard, a lawyer with Democracy Forward. “Congress has made clear that partisan ads cannot be funded with taxpayer dollars, and we are proud to work with this coalition to earn today’s result.”

In court papers, the coalition’s lawyers wrote that Congress did not appropriate funds to the president’s office “to run a PR shop to help the President’s allies and attack his perceived ideological opponents.”

Assistant U.S. Attorney Jeffrey Oestericher wrote in response to the plaintiffs that there was nothing wrong with White House staff compiling advertisements to “inform the public about his policies and to rebut attacks on those policies and his Administration.”

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Associated Press writer Michael R. Sisak contributed to this report.

Thousands of military veterans with VA-backed mortgages have been hit with higher interest rates and monthly payments since last year, when the Trump administration shut down a low-interest program designed to help them.

Among veterans who had their loans modified after a financial hardship, more than 15,000 saw their monthly payments increase by at least $150, according to an NPR investigation that obtained previously unreported data from the Department of Veterans Affairs.

More than 700 veterans suffered payment increases of $1,000 or more.

Lenders offer loan modifications to enable homeowners to catch up on missed payments. It involves changing the loan terms, and for the vast majority of Americans, it either lowers their payment or keeps it the same, depending on what they can afford. But that's not the case for VA loans, since the VA abruptly ended the program.

NPR found that 63% of veterans who received a loan modification were hit with a payment increase, compared with just 2% for modifications of loans guaranteed by the government-sponsored enterprises Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which cover most of the U.S. mortgage market.

"This is the height of insanity," said California Democratic Rep. Mark Takano, the ranking member of the House Veterans' Affairs Committee, after NPR shared its findings.

"These are veterans that are already financially distressed — they were already in trouble," he said.

Veterans like Scott Boyd are literally paying the price.

When Boyd was a teenager, his dad died of cancer. He said he saw the military as a clear path to start helping his family.

"My mom signed paperwork when I was 16," Boyd recalled. "I'm like, 'I'm sending my checks home to take care of my mom.'"

He started out in the infantry and saw combat. Later, Boyd worked in Army intelligence in some dangerous places. When he got out in 2002, he had skills that set him up for a career in tech. In 2021, he bought a house near Columbus, Ohio, using a VA home loan. Like other buyers at the time, he got a nice low-interest rate. "I felt very blessed," he said.

But a few years later, Boyd hit a crisis: He lost his job in a mass layoff, and he said his time in combat came back to haunt him in the form of PTSD. He checked himself into the Dayton VA hospital for treatment but fell behind on his mortgage.

Boyd and thousands of other veterans were pushed into much-higher-cost modified home loans. Hundreds are paying at least $1,000 more a month.

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Most Americans can get help in a situation like this. Mortgage companies don't want to foreclose because both they and the homeowner experience losses. So they have levers they can pull to help people who've fallen behind on payments.

Boyd's lender told him that he didn't have to worry because the VA had a loan forbearance program that would allow him to pause his payments and provide him with an affordable way to catch up after.

"I later found out that wasn't true," he said.

It wasn't true because the Trump administration then shut down a key part of the VA's home loan program. It was called the Veterans Affairs Servicing Purchase (VASP) program. Without it, vets like Boyd were stranded with no option but a much-higher-cost modified home loan at today's higher interest rates.

In Boyd's case, he is now stuck paying $1,181 more — every month.

"This is outrageous," said Boyd. "I remember just thinking to myself, 'This is just so broken.'"

Some in Congress agree.

"The VA home loan program should not be making things worse and more stressful for that veteran, a combat veteran, who's been through hell," said Takano, about Boyd's case in particular.

Rep. Mark Takano, D-Calif., speaks on Capitol Hill in 2025.

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Illinois Republican Rep. Mike Bost, chairman of the House Veterans' Affairs Committee, did not respond to NPR's repeated requests for comment. NPR also reached out to Wisconsin Republican Rep. Derrick Van Orden, a committee member who led the call to wind down the VASP program. He also did not respond to requests for comment.

The VA said in a statement that it helps thousands of veterans "retain homeownership and/or avoid foreclosure through programs like payment forbearance, loan modifications and individualized repayment plans."

The VA was warned this would happen

Before it was shut down, the VASP program was helping tens of thousands of veterans who had fallen behind on their home loan payments by rolling those missed payments into a new mortgage with a low 2.5% interest rate. That made the program a lifeline for vets in today's higher-interest-rate environment.

And Boyd said his mortgage company had been telling him that he too could use VASP when he was able to resume paying his mortgage.

" I would constantly ask them, 'OK, this is getting further and further behind,' and they were like, 'You have this last lever to pull.'"

This was in the spring of 2025, just months into the second Trump administration. Key Republicans on the House Veterans' Affairs Committee vocally opposed VASP, which the Biden administration created after its own VA home loan disaster. Republicans warned that VASP was putting taxpayers on the hook for thousands of loans to vets who had trouble paying.

"If the Biden version of VASP was allowed to continue, I fear that the home loan will not exist in the future for my fellow veterans," said Van Orden during a House Veterans' Affairs Committee hearing on March 11, 2025.

Rep. Derrick Van Orden, R-Wis., speaks in Eau Claire, Wis., on Oct. 20. He is currently in a tight race for reelection.

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But at the same hearing, as well as in letters to Congress and press releases, the mortgage industry and housing groups explicitly warned the Trump administration not to kill the program without first creating another viable option for vets. They said if the VA shut down the program before standing up a replacement, vets would be left with far worse options than other American homeowners. With interest rates up around 7%, they warned that the only option left would be a modified loan at the current higher rates, which would result in foreclosures for those who couldn't afford the higher payments. And that's exactly what has been happening.

" I was doing the math in my head as they were telling me, you know?" Boyd said about the loan modification he was presented with. "If I'm going from 2.75 to 6.75 … it seemed ridiculous," he said. Not only would that jump in his interest rate boost his payment by nearly $1,200 every month, but his loan term was extended to 40 years. So he went from about half of his monthly payment going toward principal to now more than 90% of his payment going to cover just the interest.

"This was a foreseeable outcome of abruptly ending a program without a replacement in place," said Matthew Douglas, of the Housing Policy Council. He represents the largest mortgage companies in the U.S. and was among those warning the VA not to kill VASP. Asked about NPR's findings, he said, "It's a mathematical certainty that borrowers are going to have those kind of shocking payment increases." 

Despite the warnings, the Trump administration ended the VASP program on May 1, 2025 — apparently in coordination with House Republicans, who announced the move before the Department of Veterans Affairs did, even though VASP was ended administratively, with no vote from Congress.

"We — along with many of our colleagues — had serious concerns about the impact VASP would have on not only the future of VA's home loan program, but the mortgage lending business as a whole. Today, the Trump administration rightfully put an end to VA's VASP program," Bost and Van Orden said in a joint press release at the time.

In his statement to NPR, VA press secretary Quinn Slaven wrote: "many leading voices in Congress supported the termination of VASP, which put the entire VA home loan program at risk."

The VA's new program slowly rolls out

Boyd lives with his partner and her four children, whom they are raising together.

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At the same time Van Orden was calling for VASP to be scuttled, he had written a bill to replace it with a new VA Partial Claim Program (PCP). Congress quickly passed that bill with broad bipartisan support in the wake of the VA scuttling VASP. It directed the VA to create an option for vets behind on payments, enabling them to move their missed payments to the back of their loan term. That way, vets could keep their original mortgage and not be forced into a higher-cost loan.

But after ending VASP, it took the VA more than 13 months to design and announce the details of the new program, which it did in June of this year. And the industry was then given another 180 days to implement it. Most mortgage companies still do not offer it.

In that gap, thousands of veterans got modified loans with higher interest rates and payments. The VA's new PCP program won't do anything to help those vets — they'll remain stuck in those modified loans.

Congress could help

Boyd holds a challenge coin from the Department of Defense that was given to him during his military service.

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NPR asked the VA about the vets who fell into the gap between the two programs. Slaven, the VA spokesman, said in his statement that the VA home loan program "is based on the premise that while Veterans may need some assistance, they must generally be able to make their mortgage payments."

Industry groups say raising a struggling homeowner's payment makes it more likely for them to redefault and face foreclosure. Foreclosures on VA loans rose to a 10-year high after VASP was killed, according to industry data. Experts warned in a congressional roundtable in September that time is running out for the government to help these vets or a wave of foreclosures is still to come.

Rep. Takano told NPR that the VA, if it chose to, could put these vets back into lower-cost mortgages or that Congress could pass a law to do it.

"We could do something for those veterans who saw a jump in their interest rates," Takano said.

Hanging on to home 

Boyd says he feels defeated after receiving worse loan options from the VA.

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Outside Columbus, Ohio, Scott Boyd is still managing to make those higher mortgage payments.

When he bought the home, he said, it felt like a guarantee of shelter and stability for him, his partner and the four kids they are raising together.

" I made a commitment, saying no matter what, I want to build a home that is big enough. …  I wanted to get them in better schools and things like that," he said.

He was even able to help when his father-in-law became ill recently; they moved him into the finished basement, where he got home hospice care.

So when he was presented with the terms of that loan modification, he had not only kids in the house but his dying father-in-law too. He'd just gotten back on his feet financially and was being told his options were the loan modification or foreclosure.

"My job was still new, and that still felt shaky. … My PTSD was shaky. … It seemed like the right thing to do was just to take the modification," he said.

Two weeks after Boyd signed the loan modification, the VA launched the new Partial Claim Program that would have allowed him to keep his original loan terms with the same monthly payment and low 2.75% interest rate. It took two more months before the first mortgage company offered vets access to the PCP, and most of the industry is still working to stand up the program before the deadline that the VA gave it of Nov. 28.

Boyd said that he doesn't often talk about his service and that he doesn't feel entitled to be treated better than any other American. But he did not expect the VA to give him worse options than those of people who never served.

" I really felt hurt more than anything. I wasn't angry. I was just like, I felt so defeated," Boyd said.

"Everything that I've done for this country and the things that I've been through, the things that I've seen, the things I've had to deal with … it's come down to, 'Yeah, I'm sorry — it's not in our systems yet. … There's nothing we can do about it.'"
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Very early on Wednesday morning, Dover, N.J., Councilwoman Sandra Wittner started getting messages about immigration agents. A dozen or more were gathering outside a Walgreens, according to the messages she was getting. Throughout the day, neighbors in north New Jersey saw a spike in Immigration and Customs Enforcement activity.

And New Jersey is not alone. In the weeks ahead of the midterms, various cities and states across the country are reporting a notable rise in ICE activity, according to reports gathered by NPR and its member stations.

"The tactics that the administration has been deploying in communities really appear to be designed to try to intimidate voters," says Wendy Weiser of the Brennan Center for Justice at NYU Law School. Despite that, early turnout is surging.

"There was definitely a lot of apprehension and fear," Wittner recalls. "We just really weren't sure if something huge was about to happen. People were not feeling very comfortable or safe."

Wittner is not sure who was detained or where, which is unsurprising: these days it's difficult to report on ICE crackdowns as they happen, because the Department of Homeland Security no longer publicly shares timely information on its operations.

NPR wrote to the agency to ask if there has been a recent surge. It responded: "ICE agents uphold our nation's immigration laws in all 50 states, seven days a week, 24 hours a day."

And yet NPR and its member stations have received tips from rural Illinois, Oregon, Detroit and California about surges in ICE enforcement throughout October.

An official within New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani's office who was not authorized to speak publicly confirmed that they have noted a surge in ICE activity in the city.

"We're certainly witnessing an uptick in activity, and have been since the summer," says a member of a volunteer group of neighbors in New York. She asked that NPR not use her name, as she is worried about retaliation. Her group goes to the scene where an ICE operation is happening, documents it, reminds those being detained of their rights, and alerts neighbors.

"In the past few weeks we've seen numerous large operations, or what we call cluster raids, multiple agents going to one spot and then the next," she said.

On the other side of the country, Oregon Public Broadcasting reporter Troy Brynelson has reported on a similar trend. "What we were seeing in early October and what we've seen continue, at least anecdotally throughout this month, is that ICE activity has really picked up in Portland." Brynelson says it seems to be concentrated in commercial areas. "I'd say it's a noticeable uptick compared to what we've seen over the summer."

Juan Proaño of the League of United Latin American Citizens (LULAC), a civil rights organization, says he's concerned because this is happening so close to the midterm elections. "It's not about ICE at the actual polling station, it's ICE at the perimeter of the polling station," he says.

"Mass enforcement actions could be away from the polls, but with social media and the news, it could be enough to dissuade somebody from actually going out to vote."

Weiser of the Brennan Center says there's no indication the raids are affecting turnout. On the contrary, she says there has been a surge in early voting in minority communities across the country. "The good news is: it isn't working. Americans are tuning this out and we are not seeing a significant impact on participation. And we are actually seeing huge surges in participation in communities of color, and in Latino communities, and in all the communities that have been targeted by ICE and DHS."

Even so, she says that intimidation at the polls is illegal, and should be reported.
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