Topline:
Worldwide the average ocean temperatures have been in record-breaking territory for 15 months straight since last April. What's going on?
Why it matters: Abnormally hot ocean water helps fuel dangerous hurricanes. And when the water gets too hot, fish and other marine species also struggle to survive.
Why now: Climate change is broadly to blame, but there are other factors. Keep reading for four of the prime suspects.
The oceans are extremely warm right now. Worldwide, average ocean temperatures were in record-breaking territory for 15 months straight since last April.
That’s bad news on multiple fronts. Abnormally hot ocean water helps fuel dangerous hurricanes, like Hurricane Ernesto, which is expected to rapidly gain strength this week in the Atlantic, and like Hurricane Debby, which dumped massive amounts of rain along the East Coast of the U.S. last week. And when the water gets too hot, fish and other marine species also struggle to survive. For example, the ocean water near Florida is so warm that it’s threatening coral reefs.
So, why are the oceans so hot right now?
Let’s start with what we know: Climate change is broadly to blame. Humans continue to burn fossil fuels that release heat-trapping gasses into the atmosphere, and most of that extra heat is absorbed by the oceans. Ocean temperatures have been steadily rising for decades.
The cyclic climate pattern El Niño is also partly to blame. When El Niño is happening, there’s warmer water in part of the Pacific, and that generally means the Earth is slightly warmer overall. In 2023 and the first part of 2024, El Niño was happening and it caused global average temperatures to rise, including in the oceans.
“The two primary things are obviously global warming and El Niño,” says Andrew Dessler, a climate scientist at Texas A&M. But that’s where the certainty ends, because the oceans are even warmer than scientists expected from those two trends.
“Think of it like, the house was burglarized, and you have video of those two suspects doing it. And the question is: Is there somebody else helping them?” Dessler explains.
It seems like there probably was another suspect. And over the last 18 months or so, a few major theories have emerged about what it might be. Testing those theories is slow, laborious work for scientists, but after months of crunching the numbers, some early answers are emerging.
One reason that ocean temperatures started to spike last year is that ships stopped releasing so much pollution into the air.
In 2020, new international shipping regulations went into effect that required ships to use slightly cleaner types of fuel. The new fuel still releases planet-warming gasses like carbon dioxide, but it releases a lot less pollution into the air.
That’s good news for the overall health of humans and other animals – air pollution, particularly the sulfur-heavy pollution released by dirty shipping fuel, leads to serious illness. “This saves lives,” says Stephen Smith, an expert on air pollution and climate change at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory.
But all that pollution was also reflecting some of the sun’s heat, because sulfur helps clouds form and those bright, white clouds reflect sunlight. When the extra sulfur from ship pollution went away, scientists wondered if more of the sun’s heat would be absorbed by the oceans.
Teasing apart how much of an effect cleaner air over the oceans might have on ocean temperatures is surprisingly difficult. That’s because there are still lots of unanswered questions about how air pollutants affect clouds, which in turn reflect sunlight. “It’s a complicated system and it’s going to take some time to sort that out, but people are trying to do that,” says Smith.
The most cutting-edge research in the field does suggest ocean temperatures may have increased slightly in some parts of the world as sulfur pollution from ships decreased. In major shipping lanes where pollution from ships decreased significantly since 2020, there are fewer so-called ship tracks – long, thin clouds that form with the help of sulfur pollution, and look kind of like plane contrails – according to a new study published this week.
Without those reflective ship track clouds, more of the Sun’s energy does, indeed, seem to be making it to the surface of the ocean, where it is absorbed, the study finds. “This could be contributing to the warm temperatures we’ve seen in the last couple years,” says Andrew Gettelman, a climate scientist at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and one of the authors of the forthcoming study.
The good news is that this type of warming, from cutting dangerous air pollution, isn’t caused by humans releasing new, additional greenhouse gas emissions. Humans already caused this warming, but weren’t feeling it because air pollution was protecting us.
When ocean temperatures started surprising scientists last year, one of the theories was that a massive volcanic eruption in 2022 might be partly to blame.
The Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai eruption happened off the coast of the Pacific island of Tonga. An underwater volcano erupted, sending sulfur, ash and water vapor into the atmosphere.
Usually, volcanic eruptions temporarily cool the Earth slightly, because the sulfur and ash in the atmosphere spread around the world and reflect extra heat from the sun.
But because the Hunga-Tonga eruption happened underwater, it spewed a lot of water vapor into the atmosphere as well. Unlike ash, water vapor absorbs heat from the sun. “Water is a greenhouse gas,” Dessler explains.
A handful of scientists publicly wondered if all that water vapor might be trapping extra heat, and contributing to off-the-charts ocean temperatures.
Recent research suggests that the answer is “No.”
“I was very skeptical of the warming effect,” says Dessler, who is an expert on how water vapor in the stratosphere affects the Earth’s climate. He points out that, despite the size of the eruption, it changed the total amount of water in the atmosphere very little. But, to know for sure, he and scientists at NASA had to analyze reams of data from satellites and other sources.
In July, they published a study showing there was no evidence that the eruption led to overall warming. If anything, like past eruptions, it contributed to slight cooling. “The bottom line is that this had a very tiny impact on the climate,” says Dessler.
But other scientific analyses about the potential role of the eruption on global temperatures are still underway, says Gavin Schmidt, a climate scientist at NASA who was not involved in the newly published study. “I’d caution against assuming that a single [research] paper will end up being the consensus,” he says.
Since the heat in the oceans originally comes from the sun, our local star is one place to look for answers about abnormal temperatures here on Earth.
The amount of energy coming from the sun changes a little bit over the course of an 11-year solar cycle. “As the sun’s output gets brighter and dimmer by about 0.1% over its 11-year cycle, the Earth’s global temperatures increase and then decrease by a little less than 0.1 degree [Celsius],” explains Gregory Kopp, a solar physicist at the University of Colorado, Boulder.
But that tenth of a degree Celsius change doesn’t account for the abnormally hot ocean temperatures of the last couple years. “The sun isn’t causing the recent record-breaking sea-surface temperatures,” Kopp says. The ocean is simply too large to immediately heat up or cool down in response to changes in the sun. “The sea contains so much heat energy that it doesn’t respond on the relatively short solar-cycle timescales,” Kopp explains .
So, in the quest to understand current record-breaking ocean temperatures, the sun doesn’t offer any answers.
The upshot is that scientists don’t know for sure what’s driving ocean temperatures into record-breaking territory. In addition to climate change and El Niño, cleaner air seems to be playing a role.
The last possibility is what Dessler calls “weirdness.”
The Earth’s climate is incredibly complex, and there’s some natural variability in temperatures on short time scales like one or two years. A few extra tenths of a degree of heat in the Atlantic due to nothing more but natural variability could account for a couple of record-breaking years, when it’s layered on top of warming from climate change and El Niño.
“My guess is, in the end, it’s just going to be internal variability,” Dessler explains. “Like, something weird happened! Because the climate’s always doing something weird.”
Gettelman agrees that normal year-to-year temperature variability is an important factor.
“We're going to see the planet warm in fits and starts,” he explains. For example, there was a period in the 2010s when the Earth didn’t warm very much. “People were saying ‘Oh, global warming's over,’” remembers Gettelman. “It wasn't. It was just a transient thing, and we now may be recovering from that.”
The real concern for climate scientists isn’t so much what happens to temperatures in a given year or two, but whether the overall warming trend is accelerating. If the oceans don’t cool off somewhat in the coming months, that would suggest that the Earth is heating up very quickly.
“I think people are starting to get a little worried that we are warming at the high end of what [climate models predicted],” says Gettelman.
“We’ll see,” Dessler agrees. “The next few months will tell us if we’ve really broken the climate.”
Copyright 2024 NPR
Topline:
Netflix is in final talks to buy Warner's film and TV studios, plus its streaming assets and some debt, in a deal worth nearly $83 billion.
Why it matters: The deal would give Netflix one of Hollywood's most valuable libraries, including the Harry Potter, Game of Thrones, and the DC Comics properties.
The context: The announcement caps what had been a closely watched bidding war in Hollywood that involved top competitor Paramount.
What's next: The deal still has to close regulatory and other hurdles, and would likely take around a year to close.
We have a winner in the bidding war for Warner Bros-Discovery.
Netflix is in final talks to buy Warner's film and TV studios, plus its streaming assets and some debt, in a deal worth nearly $83 billion.
In a statement Friday, Netflix said the two entertainment giants had "entered into a definitive agreement under which Netflix will acquire Warner Bros., including its film and television studios, HBO Max and HBO." The announcement caps what had been a closely watched bidding war in Hollywood that involved top competitor Paramount.
“Our mission has always been to entertain the world,” Ted Sarandos, co-CEO of Netflix, said in a statement. “By combining Warner Bros.’ incredible library of shows and movies — from timeless classics like Casablanca and Citizen Kane to modern favorites like Harry Potter and Friends — with our culture-defining titles like Stranger Things, KPop Demon Hunters and Squid Game, we'll be able to do that even better. Together, we can give audiences more of what they love and help define the next century of storytelling.”
The deal would give Netflix one of Hollywood's most valuable libraries, including the Harry Potter, Game of Thrones, and the DC Comics properties.
The Directors Guild of America told Variety that the deal "raises significant concerns."
“The news that Netflix had secured exclusive rights to negotiate for WBD raises significant concerns for the DGA,” the guild said. “We believe that a vibrant, competitive industry — one that fosters creativity and encourages genuine competition for talent — is essential to safeguarding the careers and creative rights of directors and their teams."
For its part, Netflix said in it's statement that it "expects to maintain Warner Bros.’ current operations and build on its strengths, including theatrical releases for films."
The deal still has to close regulatory and other hurdles, and would likely take around a year to close.
What to expect: Sunny and about three degrees warmer for the region.
Beach Hazards: There's a chance of tidal overflow that could cause pooling of water over low-lying areas around the ocean.
Read on ... for more details.
Breezy conditions will linger today for L.A. County mountains, but otherwise, expect a mild weather day. Come Sunday, temperatures will rise significantly continuing into next week.
Temperatures in the Inland Empire and Coachella Valley will range from 67 to 73 degrees.
In Orange County, inland and coastal areas will stay in the 64- to 70-degree range.
For the L.A. County coast, expect highs from 64 to 72 degrees. For the valley communities, highs there will range from 68 to 74 degrees. In the Antelope Valley, highs will range from 60 to 65 degrees, but foothill communities will still see daytime highs in the upper 50s to around low 60s.
High surf has come and gone, but now look out for high tides that could lead to pooling of water around walkways, parking lots or other low-lying areas near the ocean. These conditions will last until Saturday morning.
Topline:
Eleven months after the January fires, childcare providers — especially those who operated businesses out of their homes — still are struggling to open up their doors.
The backstory: Unlike during COVID, childcare providers didn’t receive dedicated relief money to recover from the fires. That left them to piece together federal support, state unemployment and private grants.
Why it matters: As communities rebuild, families need reliable childcare. “The childcare field has been present in the community through devastating times, yet we are often overlooked when creating policy, allocating funds or recognizing the important role we play in our society in a disaster,” said Cristina Alvarado, executive director of the Child Care Alliance of Los Angeles, at a recent legislative hearing.
What's next: The state Assembly select committee on child care costs is looking at how to help the industry in times of natural disasters.
Read on ... to listen to the full story on 'Imperfect Paradise'.
Eleven months after the January fires, childcare providers — especially those who operated businesses out of their homes — still are struggling to open up their doors.
“There were no state or federal funds provided to support families or providers connected to childcare,” said Cristina Alvarado, executive director of the Child Care Alliance of Los Angeles, at a recent legislative hearing. “Sadly, we will experience another disaster, another fire, another loss.”
The California Department of Social Services said as of this summer, 50 of 280 impacted childcare facilities remained closed. They stopped tracking the data in August.
Providers told lawmakers in October that they needed more support to survive in an already fragile childcare industry. Preschools have been closing in L.A. County. There also are not enough childcare providers, and those who are in business are chronically underpaid. A recent study out of Stanford found that most childcare workers struggle to afford basic needs.
This means those childcare providers and the system as a whole are particularly vulnerable when a disaster strikes, like January's fires.
“ I lost my only source of income without a place to operate. I cannot work. I still had to pay my rent and my mortgage payment, as well as our living expenses such as food,” said Francisca Gunawardena, who lost her house and childcare business in the Eaton Fire. Nearly a year later, she still hasn't been able to re-open.
Unlike during COVID, childcare providers didn’t receive dedicated relief money to recover from the fires. That left them to piece together federal support, state unemployment and private grants.
Providers who took care of children from low-income families and received state subsidies did receive payments from the state for 30 days after the fire. But that didn't get them very far. Gov. Gavin Newsom’s office then directed childcare workers to an unemployment phone line.
Providers who looked for help from FEMA and other agencies sometimes found a bureaucratic maze. Felisa Wright, a childcare provider who lost her home and business in the Eaton Fire, spent months trying to get the agency's support. She encountered a series of catch-22s. She was rejected when applying for a small business loan because she didn't make enough money. But to start making money again, she needed to reopen her childcare center.
In a statement, the agency said, “FEMA makes every effort to ensure that everyone eligible for assistance receives the help they need to recover,” and its program for assisting individuals has provided over $150 million to about 35,000 households.
The office of state Assemblymember Cecilia Aguiar-Curry, who co-chairs the select committee on childcare costs, said this fall that the committee will look at identifying legislation to help the childcare industry in times of natural disasters.
Providers say some kind of relief is necessary.
Hear the stories of two providers — Francisca Gunawardena and Felisa Wright — who both lost their homes and what their journeys reveal about recovery overall after the L.A. fires on the latest episode of Imperfect Paradise.
Payments from Southern California Edison — the utility whose equipment is believed to have started the Eaton Fire — could help some families rebuild their destroyed homes. But those payments also could land homeowners with a huge tax bill.
To address this problem, California Sen. Alex Padilla has introduced a bill that would make existing tax exemptions permanent for wildfire survivors.
Comments from Padilla: “When a fire survivor is wading through the ashes of their former home and thinking about how to rebuild their life, the last thing they should have to worry about is how they’re going to afford to pay taxes on any settlement they receive,” Padilla said in a written statement Friday.
Read on … to learn who would qualify and which Republican senators are backing the bill.
Payments from Southern California Edison — the utility whose equipment is believed to have started the Eaton Fire — could help some families rebuild their destroyed homes. But those payments also could land homeowners with a huge tax bill.
To address this problem, California Sen. Alex Padilla has introduced a bill that would make existing tax exemptions permanent for wildfire survivors.
Congress passed exemptions one year ago, but they’re set to expire at the end of 2025. Unless Congress approves new exemptions, homeowners who accept wildfire compensation next year could have their payouts taxed.
“When a fire survivor is wading through the ashes of their former home and thinking about how to rebuild their life, the last thing they should have to worry about is how they’re going to afford to pay taxes on any settlement they receive,” Padilla said Friday in a written statement.
The bill — co-sponsored by Republicans Cynthia Lummis of Wyoming and Tim Sheehy of Montana, along with Democrat Ron Wyden of Oregon — would extend the existing protections under a bill passed in 2024. Padilla introduced that bill to refund federal income tax payments on wildfire payouts from the Butte, North Bay and Camp fires.
As fire-ravaged communities approach the one-year anniversary of a disaster that destroyed more than 13,000 homes, homeowners in and around Altadena are facing tough choices on whether to join the compensation program set up by SoCal Edison.
Taking a payout could be a faster route to obtaining funds to aid with rebuilding. But recipients will forfeit their right to sue SoCal Edison for potentially greater compensation.
The compensation program has faced criticism from some survivors who say the utility is lowballing families in need of faster payouts.
Palisades Fire survivors have not been offered compensation funds because that fire began with an alleged arson, not from any utility equipment malfunctioning.
California lawmakers already have passed a law exempting wildfire settlement payouts from state income tax until 2030.
The bill, as currently written, would apply to any federally declared disaster stemming from a wildfire that happened after the start of 2015. Payouts eligible for tax exemption would include any compensation for losses, expenses or damages not already covered by insurance.
