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The most important stories for you to know today
  • Inside California's last nuclear power plant
    two large cylindrical stone buildings rise up against a blue sky, surrounded by a number of smaller, mostly gray buildings.
    The Diablo Canyon Power Plant in San Luis Obispo on Feb. 13, the state’s only active nuclear power plant. All eyes are turned to power plant as the debate about extending its life returns to Sacramento. But what’s it like inside?

    Topline:

    Diablo Canyon is California’s last operating nuclear power plant. Just years ago, the plant was slated to close, and employees worked to decommission it, until a 2022 about-face by Gov. Gavin Newsom led the state to extend its operations to 2030. Now lawmakers in Sacramento are talking about allowing it to operate even longer, potentially to 2045.

    What do those who oppose the plant say? Local groups, some of whom have protested the plant since its construction, are banging the drum ever louder about their concerns for safety or a catastrophic meltdown, as well as the danger posed by spent nuclear waste at a site near several seismic fault lines.

    What about academics? Academics are furiously analyzing how much keeping Diablo Canyon open would cost and if it would support or hinder the state’s clean energy transition. And business groups are lining up in support.

    Read on ... for a rare look inside the last operating nuclear power plant in the state.

    The most striking view off one of San Luis Obispo County’s winding coastal roads is not the lashing ocean waves of the Pacific Ocean or cows plodding out from the shade of a California live oak tree.

    It is two enormous concrete domes that come into focus along a final climb that began 7 miles back at Avila Beach. The land sinks away, and what looks like a small town emerges, showcased in a palette of grays, whites and terracotta.

    This is Diablo Canyon, California’s last operating nuclear power plant.

    Just years ago, the plant was slated to close, and employees worked to decommission it, until a 2022 about-face by Gov. Gavin Newsom led the state to extend its operations to 2030. Now lawmakers in Sacramento are talking about allowing it to operate even longer, potentially to 2045.

    But local groups, some of whom have protested the plant since its construction, are banging the drum ever louder about their concerns for safety or a catastrophic meltdown, as well as the danger posed by spent nuclear waste at a site near several seismic fault lines.

    Meanwhile, academics are furiously analyzing how much keeping Diablo Canyon open would cost and if it would support or hinder the state’s clean energy transition. And business groups are lining up in support.

    So when PG&E offered press tours earlier this year, KQED accepted. The nuclear power plant has not garnered this much attention in years, but now, once again, all eyes are on Diablo Canyon. What does it look like inside?

    Out on the water

    PG&E’s Diablo Canyon Power Plant tour started on a boat in a protected marina just south of the reactors. This, and another cove just outside the breakwaters, are the site of a key piece of the plant’s cooling system — and a major concern for environmentalists, who argue it hoovers up and kills marine life and have called it “the most destructive facility” along California’s coast.

    Dipping a hand in Diablo Cove, the water is lukewarm, not the frosty standard for the ocean in these parts.

    That’s because Diablo Canyon draws 2 billion3-2.5 billion gallons of ocean water daily — enough to fill more than 3,000 Olympic-size swimming pools — into the plant to cool equipment, and discharges the water back into the ocean typically 16 to 17 degrees hotter.

    The warmer water makes it feel as if a chunk of Southern California’s coast has been lobbed off and transferred north.

    Out on the water, there was a hotbed of animal activity: a floating sea otter and chubby seals sunning themselves on rocks.

    There were other species too — sea bass, stingrays, and California’s state fish, the garibaldi, which typically live farther south along California’s coast, but have moved here.

    Diablo Canyon staff said the warm water leads to essentially no change to the environment. Because fishing and other activities are not allowed within 2,000 yards of the plant, it’s a “de facto marine sanctuary,” said Tom Jones, a senior director in charge of future planning for Diablo Canyon.

    But the California Coastal Commission, the state agency tasked with protecting the coastline and its natural resources, reported in 2025 that the plant’s cooling system kills almost two billion larval fish annually, plus other organisms that aren’t measured.

    While adult populations may be abundant in Diablo Cove, the commission wrote that adults often appear far from where they spawn, and their presence here may be the result of productive marine habitats nearby.

    The commission also warned that removing eggs and larvae near Diablo Canyon leads to “a significant reduction” of species dozens of miles from the plant.

    “These planktonic organisms,” wrote the commission, “constitute the base of the food web in California’s coastal waters.”

    To the turbine deck

    We donned hard hats and safety equipment and passed through heavy security to enter the “protected area,” which consists of spaces closer to the nuclear reactors.

    We entered the turbine deck, an industrial building the size of two-and-a-half football fields. It was hot and loud on the deck, with a slight vibration underfoot.

    The steam-driven turbine inside is an enormous semi-cylinder that looks like a horizontal steel pipe cut in half, and spins a generator to produce electricity.

    The PG&E guide pointed out the window at a containment dome, where uranium atoms are split apart, releasing huge amounts of heat.

    A cascade of effects follows: the heat warms water and creates steam, the steam travels through pipes to turn the turbine, the turbine connects to a generator, which makes electricity that’s then sent across the grid and delivered to about three million Californians.

    Nuclear generates nearly 9% of the state’s energy supply, part of an energy mix that includes gas, hydroelectric, solar, wind, geothermal and even small amounts of coal.

    While California’s demand for electricity has been flat for years, it’s now growing with the adoption of electric vehicles, people swapping gas appliances for electric ones, and data centers.

    The debate to keep Diablo Canyon open is spurred, in part, by this uptick in demand. Maureen Zawalick, senior vice president and chief risk officer at PG&E, said stepping into the turbine deck reminds her of the end uses of all this power: “safety in hospitals, kidney dialysis, stop lights and everything else.”

    California is walking its economy across a tightrope.

    The state’s growth in the 20th century was built on a foundation of fossil fuels, but leaders see its future as being powered by the buildout of renewables like solar and wind, along with batteries to store excess power.

    When heat waves strained California’s power grid and caused rolling blackouts in 2020, state lawmakers and Newsom voted to extend Diablo Canyon’s operation.

    Now, as electricity bills continue to rise and demand is forecast to grow, proponents argue that keeping the plant open even longer can help California wobble across the precarious middle of the tightrope.

    The simulator

    We shed our safety gear and headed to the training building, with classrooms and an exact replica of the control room, called the simulator.

    It was cool and quiet again as employees completed a training exercise, manipulating switches, lights and screens on a semicircle of vertical boards. Zawalick said the simulator’s seafoam green walls are meant to inspire calm, but its very existence is due to nuclear disasters that have occurred elsewhere in the U.S.

    Simulators became a requirement for all nuclear power plants in 1979 after the Three Mile Island nuclear accident in Pennsylvania. The partial meltdown was the most serious nuclear accident in U.S. history and was caused by both human and equipment failure.

    Practicing in a replica of Diablo Canyon’s actual control room is meant to train workers with the muscle memory to handle a variety of emergencies.

    Employees spend 20% of their time in the Diablo Canyon simulator training for everything from planned refueling to routine maintenance to major emergencies.

    Spent nuclear fuel

    To finish the tour, we drove uphill and farther from the ocean to find dozens of hulking concrete cylinders that contain spent fuel, called “dry casks.”

    The nuclear material is the concern of resident groups who fear an earthquake or terrorist attack could destabilize the storage and spew radioactive waste into the ocean or nearby communities. People living nearby are mailed annual emergency preparedness documents and have access to a free dose of potassium iodide, which protects the thyroid gland against radiation.

    Linda Seeley has rallied against Diablo Canyon for decades as a member of the anti-nuclear nonprofit Mothers for Peace.

    “As much as I would love it if nuclear waste were not toxic and lethal to a thousand generations in the future, that’s not the fact. The fact is that it is toxic,” she said.

    Once fuel has been used inside the plant, radiation levels are dangerously high and have the potential to kill an exposed person in minutes.

    The spent fuel spends 7 to 10 years next to the reactors in “wet storage,” a large pool of water treated with chemicals. The liquid absorbs heat and decays of the uranium, which has high levels of radiation.

    The nuclear material is then packed into the double-lined, stainless steel and reinforced dry casks, roughly 20 feet tall. Each is bolted to a 7.5-foot-thick, steel-reinforced concrete pad designed to withstand earthquakes. The fuel requires special handling for tens of thousands of years.

    Diablo Canyon is located roughly 3.5 miles from the Hosgri fault, which presents the main seismic risk to the plant. Another fault, the Shoreline, is closer to the plant, but smaller. Some seismologists are concerned that a quake along the faults could cause a meltdown.

    The U.S. government is legally obligated to take ownership of all commercially spent nuclear fuel, but because the government has not yet built a permanent place to put it, the fuel is stored at the power plant.

    Current solutions like Diablo Canyon’s dry storage casks, while they may be thorough, are only licensed until 2064 by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission.

    Zawalick said PG&E is confident in the storage of Diablo Canyon’s spent fuel, though. She pointed out that nuclear power is “the only energy source that knows exactly where every ounce of our waste is.” The Nuclear Regulatory Commission and PG&E monitor the spent fuel on a daily and annual basis. “It’s secured, it’s inspected, it’s audited, it’s sampled. I’m a fan of all energy sources, but I don’t know where solar panels are sent when they’re done, and batteries, and all of that.”

    Zawalick pointed to the powerful transmission lines carrying energy created here out to millions of Californians: to illuminate rooms for special and mundane occasions, preserve food in refrigerators, run air conditioners, and warm their shower water.

    Order and safety come up frequently on the Diablo Canyon Power Plant tour: background checks, armed guards, seismic protective measures, reminders to hold on to handrails when on steps. The result is a calm and kempt environment, situated on a hillside overlooking the Pacific.

    But underneath the serenity lie the inherent risks of nuclear power, especially when sited near seismic fault lines. Diablo Canyon has been the source of passionate debate as long as the idea of it has existed. And any effort to keep it operating longer will be no different.

    And with that, the tour was over, and the guides returned to their work. A cow made its way slowly across the access road, with no idea of its contentious neighbor.

  • The latest on the race between Luna and Villanueva
    Large "Live Results" text with stars on a white banner, above "LAist Voter Game Plan" and a blue-red Los Angeles skyline.

    Topline:

    The election rematch between Robert Luna and Alex Villanueva comes to a close, with voting ending at 8 p.m. on Election Day. Now L.A. County awaits the vote tally between Luna, the incumbent sheriff who defeated his challenger in 2022, and Villanueva, who is making a bid to return to the Sheriff's Department's top job.

    The campaign: The candidates painted starkly different pictures of the department — the largest sheriff’s agency in the country — during the campaign. Villanueva claimed the department has fallen apart on Luna’s watch. Luna argued his leadership has brought down violent crime and cut homicides by 25% in areas patrolled by his deputies. No matter the winner, the department faces a slew of challenges.

    Read on ... for the latest results.

    L.A. County Sheriff Robert Luna took an early lead in the race to head the department he’s run for the last four years.

    Returns in the sheriff’s race heavily favored Luna over challenger and predecessor Alex Villanueva after polls closed. A win for Luna was largely expected going into the election after he handily beat Villanueva in 2022.

    What to keep in mind about these numbers

    • For LAist's charts showing vote counts, we get numbers directly from the L.A. County and Orange County registrars of voters for local races. Totals are updated on our site as soon as possible after the registrars provide new tallies. For statewide races, counts come from the California Secretary of State's Office.
    • Has your ballot been tallied yet? You can track the status of your ballot here.
    • Keep in mind that, in tight races particularly, the winner may not be determined for days or weeks after election day. That's because early voting and mail-in ballots have fundamentally reshaped how votes are counted and when election results are known. The upshot: Ballots can be postmarked up to and including Election Day. They're counted as long as the ballot arrives within seven days of the election and that window contributes to the lag time before results are announced.
    • In L.A. County, for example, daily updates on the counting are expected to take place at least once a day — usually around 5 p.m. — through Nov. 13. (There will be multiple updates on Nov. 5 and 6.) Then, the once-a-day counts will resume again on Nov. 17, 19, 25 and 27. The office is scheduled to certify election results by Friday, Nov. 27. In Orange County, There will be multiple updates after the polls close, and then daily updates weekdays at 5 p.m. until results are scheduled to be certified on or before Dec. 3.
    • The California Secretary of State is scheduled to certify the election results on Dec. 11.
    • Our priority during the vote count will be sharing outcomes and election calls only when they have been thoroughly checked and vetted by journalists. To that end, we will rely on official results and report when candidates concede. Otherwise, we rely on NPR and the Associated Press for race calls. We will not report the calls or projections of other news outlets. You can find more about NPR's and the AP's process for counting votes and calling races here and here.

    The background

    The candidates painted starkly different pictures of the department — the largest sheriff’s agency in the country — during the campaign.

    Villanueva claimed the department has fallen apart on Luna’s watch. Luna argued his leadership has brought down violent crime and cut homicides by 25% in areas patrolled by his deputies.

    No matter the winner, the department faces a slew of challenges.

    Luna has been criticized for his management of county jails. The U.S. Department of Justice recently launched an investigation into conditions at the Men’s Central Jail and, last year, California’s attorney general filed a lawsuit alleging inhumane and unconstitutional conditions inside county jails.

    The Sheriff’s Department also is dealing with ongoing staffing challenges, allegations of excessive use of force, deputy gangs and ongoing friction with the Sheriff Civilian Oversight Commission.

    The next sheriff will also have to help oversee security for the 2028 Olympic Games in and around Los Angeles.

    This year’s race was a rematch of the 2022 election, in which Luna unseated then-incumbent Villanueva with a 23-percentage-point margin.

    Villanueva’s term was marked by clashes with county supervisors and criticism over investigations he launched into critics, including an L.A. Times journalist who covered the department.

    After he left office, Villanueva was placed on a "do not rehire" list after the County Equity Oversight Panel found that he violated discrimination and harassment policies during his term. Villanueva denied the allegation.

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  • Democrat is first elected Latino governor
    TK
    Gubernatorial candidate Xavier Becerra speaks during his election night watch party in Los Angeles on June 2, 2026. Photo by

    Topline:

    Xavier Becerra is California’s next governor after easily securing a victory that ensures Democrats continue their 16-year streak controlling the state.

    About the call: The Associated Press declared Becerra the winner moments after polls closed.

    He makes history: Becerra will be the first Latino to serve as governor in a century and a half, and the first to be elected to the seat.

    Xavier Becerra is California’s next governor after easily securing a victory that ensures Democrats continue their 16-year streak controlling the state.

    The Associated Press declared Becerra the winner shortly after polls closed.

    He will be the first Latino to serve as governor in a century and a half, and the first to be elected to the seat.

    Becerra’s win caps a whirlwind and unexpected rise for a mild-mannered, risk-averse politician who just eight months ago polled so low he was being pressured to drop out of the race.

    But when the leading Democratic contender in a crowded primary dropped out in April over sexual assault allegations, Becerra was the mainstream Democrat whom party insiders and interest groups coalesced behind the most. By the time he and Hilton finished first and second in the primary election in June, he was already being considered the presumptive next governor of California.

    In a comfortable position in the polls and facing a GOP opponent whom he could easily tie to President Donald Trump, Becerra avoided sweeping policy promises and instead focused on his longtime experience in government.

    With Becerra’s election, it’s unlikely the state will significantly depart from the policies of outgoing Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom, including in its longstanding disputes with the Trump administration. Becerra has said he supports changes Newsom and the Democratic-led Legislature have enacted to speed up housing construction, and he generally supports the state’s transition to clean energy — but also wants to find ways to lower gas prices.

    He is, however, likely to differ in style compared to his predecessor. Newsom’s signature was ambition; he swept into office eight years ago with a litany of goals such as millions of new housing units and progressive moonshots like single-payer healthcare, not all of which he achieved. Becerra has avoided such promises, instead speaking generally about prioritizing working families, and says he doesn’t want to lose any public trust by overstating what he could accomplish.

    Hilton, meanwhile, rolled out a litany of deregulatory policies and called for tax cuts, abolishing the Department of Motor Vehicles, canceling the high-speed rail project and ending the state’s climate goals in an aggressive campaign of lowering the cost of living. But he faced long odds running as a Republican in a blue state, during an election in which Democrats were expected to sweep offices nationwide.

    He represented the best hope in years for a GOP victory. He has raised more than $33 million to Becerra’s $38 million and is running hard on a series of ambitious promises to lower costs by slashing regulations and taxes. He portrayed Becerra as the embodiment of the California political status quo, someone who would make decisions that benefit influential special interest groups like organized labor.

    “It’s the people against the machine,” he said of his campaign in a virtual town hall last week.

    His message of change, promises to slash gas prices and frequent invocations of Californians moving out-of-state resonated with Brad Gerig, who voted in Roseville last week. It was the first time Gerig, 34, could recall voting for a Republican, he said. The EMT and firefighter said he wants to be able to afford to stay and raise a family in California, so he was willing to “try something different.”

    “I think it’s worth a shot,” Gerig said. “I think for everybody living in this area there’s an inherent angst for a little bit better. There’s no reason it should be as expensive as it is.”

    But Hilton has struggled to rid himself of the baggage from President Donald Trump’s endorsement in a state Trump lost by 20 percentage points in 2024.

    Becerra has reminded voters of Hilton’s link to Trump at every turn, and cast himself as a fighter who would, like Newsom, challenge decisions in Washington such as Trump’s aggressive deportation campaign.

    He has dismissed Hilton as unserious and primarily campaigned on his longtime experience representing Los Angeles in Congress and serving as state attorney general and as U.S. health secretary. Those roles have earned him a wide swath of influential liberal allies.

    “Xavier Becerra has stood with us for more than 30 years,” said Tony Hoang, executive director of the LGBTQ+ rights organization Equality California, at an event in San Francisco last week.

    He highlighted Becerra’s role as one of the small minority of congressmembers who voted against the anti-gay marriage Defense of Marriage Act in 1996.

    At the same event, Becerra touted his opposition to Trump.

    “Donald Trump is on this ballot,” he said, without naming his opponent once. “We see right through you, Donald Trump. And we see through all those MAGA friends and relatives who are trying to push that agenda on us.”

    Becerra’s comfortable standing is reflected in the relatively muted nature of his campaign: Becerra agreed to meet for only one debate with Hilton this fall. He has spent much of his time campaigning not for himself but against a Republican-backed voter ID measure and on behalf of other California Democrats.

    The election comes at a particularly delicate time for California.

    Street homelessness rose for years and only began to decline again in 2025. Wildfires have made it harder to buy homeowners insurance. Inflation, much of it attributable to Trump’s war in Iran, tariffs and immigration crackdown, have added to the already-high cost of living.

    The state budget, always subject to the boom and bust of the stock market, has become particularly dependent on the fortunes of the artificial intelligence industry. Under Newsom, the state has made aggressive regulatory moves to curb the use of climate-warming fossil fuels. But despite recent polling that shows a majority of Californians support the green transition, fewer are willing to pay higher prices for energy than were a decade ago.

    And the state’s liberal politics have often put it in the crosshairs of the Trump administration, which has withheld federal funds, challenged California’s environmental policies and attempted to intervene in this election.

    Both candidates agree the state has become unaffordable for working families. That’s about all they agree on.

    Becerra has proposed mostly incremental changes to existing state policies, such as continuing recent efforts by Newsom and lawmakers to reduce the bureaucratic hurdles to approving new housing construction.

    He wants to expand state mortgage assistance programs and said he’s committed to the clean energy transition, but open to delays or tweaks to trim costs. He has not endorsed any new taxes on residents, but wants the state to assess a fee on corporations whose employees make so little they qualify for public healthcare.

    Hilton, a British American who was once a close adviser to former British Prime Minister David Cameron, ran on a deregulatory agenda, promising to slash environmental rules and the gas tax and allow more home construction on exurban, undeveloped land.

    One of his signature campaign promises was to eliminate the income tax on residents’ first $150,000 in earnings and make the income tax flat above that — amounting to an expensive tax cut for the highest earners that he’s said he would pay for with spending cuts. It’s one of his many promises that would need legislative approval, and he has not said how he would get Democrats in the Capitol to support them.

    This article was originally published on CalMatters and was republished under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives license.

  • 15,000 Cal State union members must now vote on it
    Various students walk thru an outdoor brick and concrete walkway surrounded by grassy fields and trees.
    Students walk on campus at Cal State Long Beach.

    Topline:

    California State University staff began voting Tuesday to ratify a deal their union reached with the university system over the weekend. If the 15,000 members of the California State University Employees Union vote to ratify the agreement, the Board of Trustees will formally approve it at its next meeting.

    Why it matters: Union members — which include non-faculty staff from administrators to janitors — could start  receiving a bonus check of around $3,500 by December if the deal passes, according to Catherine Hutchinson, CSU Employees Union president, as well as pay raises.

    Who's unhappy: Bethany Price, president of the union chapter at Cal State Long Beach, will be voting against ratifying the agreement because it doesn't fully address the issue of temporary contracts, which she feels are being abused.

    What's next: If ratified, the agreement will be in effect till 2029.

    California State University staff began voting Tuesday to ratify a deal their union reached with the university system over the weekend. If the around 15,000 members of the California State University Employees Union authorize the agreement, the Board of Trustees will formally approve it at their next meeting.

    Union members — who include non-faculty staff from administrators to janitors — could start receiving a bonus check of around $3,500 by December, as well as pay raises, according to Catherine Hutchinson, CSU Employees Union president.

    The agreement allows for implementation of the salary step scale, an incremental pay scale based on the job grade and years of service.

    “The amount of money that we're receiving this year and the correction of our step placements and eligible employees getting put properly on steps, it was worth it to sign a TA [tentative agreement] now,” she said.

    In a statement, a CSU spokesperson said, “The CSU is pleased to have reached a tentative agreement with the California State University Employees Union. The agreement would complete implementation of the negotiated salary step system, with employees placed on their target salary steps retroactive to July 1, 2026, while providing meaningful compensation improvements.”

    Bethany Price, president of the union chapter at Cal State Long Beach, said the new agreement will give her a financial boost.

    “My salary would move me to the end range of the position that I'm in, and I've been in the same position for over 20 years and seen movement in my salary only in those times when the union negotiated salary increases,” she said.

    Mixed feelings about the deal

    Price will be voting against ratifying the agreement, however.

     "For those of us who work on this campus at Cal State Long Beach, it does not address one of the biggest issues, which is the abuse of temporary contracts by our system,” Price said.

    Many staff employed at Cal State Long Beach in positions such as administrative coordinators are in full-time roles but on temporary contracts, “which means that they can be curtailed at the discretion of management, and that they can be non-renewed for no cause or no purpose,” Price said.

    Hutchinson said under the new contract, like the old, CSU is allowed to employ a person for four years on a temporary contract.

    “We have some campuses, such as Cal State Long Beach, that abuse that, because what happens is if you have a break in service, the temp status restarts,” she said. “So what campuses will do, is they will have that person for 11 months, say 'Oh, we don't have enough money,' break the service, and then maybe a couple months later say, 'Oh, we got some funding again. We'll hire you back.'”

    The new deal, Hutchinson said, contains a provision that CSU and the union will form a working group to address temporary employment.

    Price said she is “spicy” about this new deal because three years ago the contract also called for a separate committee on temporary contracts, and, she said, nothing happened. “Instead what we've seen on this campus is an increase in the abuse.”

     "When the bargaining team says that this is the best we can get at this point, then I have to trust them,” she said. “It doesn't mean that I have to take my vote and put it in the yes column for this tentative agreement that I don't believe serves this campus.”

    If ratified, the new contract will run through 2029.

  • Control of Congress? 6 election night signs

    Topline:

    Some of the key storylines to watch will center around various voters groups that have soured on President Trump during his second turn out.

    With so many races underway, here's how to get better idea of how the night might go. Watch for:

    1. The early bellwethers for Republican turnout and the Latino vote
    2. Do Republicans get 46% with independents?
    3. Black voter turnout in key states
    4. The margin with young voters
    5. In Texas, the keys will be the difference between Gov. Greg Abbott (R) and Ken Paxton's (R) vote totals — and the Latino vote in South Texas
    6. Party identification

    Keep reading... for the key indicators to be watching for tonight.

    It can be hard to know what to focus on in midterm elections. There are so many races, from elections for governor and senator to the House and state legislatures. For a better idea of how the night might go to see which party might control Congress, here are six things to watch:

    1. The early bellwethers for Republican turnout and the Latino vote

    There are two states, Indiana and Kentucky, that will see results in the 6 p.m. ET hour. And then there's Florida, which is split between the Eastern and Central time zones. But most of the state is on Eastern time. So lots of House race results will be coming in during the 7 p.m. ET hour, even if statewide contests like the Senate and governors races won't be called at the earliest until 8 p.m. ET.

    Some races to watch for early indicators of what might come later in the evening — Indiana's 5th Congressional District, Kentucky's 6th and Florida's 22nd and 27th. Indiana's 5th and Kentucky's 6th are seats held by Republicans that are more competitive now than at the beginning of the cycle. If these are close or tipping to Democrats, it could be a sign of low Republican turnout and a bigger Democratic wave.

    Florida's 22nd is held by a Democrat but redrawn to tip in Republicans' favor. Trump won Florida's 27th by double-digits so this heavily Latino district could be an indicator of how this key subgroup votes.

    2. Do Republicans get 46% with independents?

    Independents are a key swing group, but they are also a lower-propensity voting group in midterms.

    It used to be that Republicans had to win a bigger share of independents before the Trump era. Mitt Romney, for example, won 55% of independents in 2012 but lost the presidential election. But there's been a political realignment in this country with blue-collar white voters trending toward Trump, fewer people identifying as Democrats and better-educated white voters shifting toward Democrats.

    So in the decade since Trump has been on the political scene, Republicans have done well when they win at least 46% of independents. When they haven't, they've lost.

    3. Black voter turnout in key states

    The Michigan Senate race is important for control of the Senate. If Republicans flip it, the magic number for Democrats goes from four to five, meaning Democrats would have to win five seats held by Republicans to win control of the Senate.

    For Abdul El-Sayed (D) to win in Michigan, a key is going to be Black voters in Wayne County. If he runs up the score in and around Detroit, he has a path to victory, but if he doesn't, it becomes that much harder — and it's been an area of vulnerability for him.

    During the Trump era, Democrats have needed 68% or more in Wayne County to win Michigan unless, like Sen. Elissa Slotkin in 2024, they can overperform in the suburbs.

    Wayne County Democratic margins
    2024 Slotkin 63% Win (11% share)
    2024 Harris 62% Loss
    2020 Biden 68% Win (12%)
    2020 Peters 68% Win
    2018 Stabenow 69% Win (15%)
    2016 Clinton 66% Loss (13%)

    4. The margin with young voters

    Voters 18 to 29 see a drastic drop off in turnout between presidential and midterm elections. During presidential races since 1992, 43% of registered young voters cast ballots. But in midterms, that falls to 21%, just 1 in 5 who show up at the polls.

    But they are crucial to Democratic success. In the last 20 years, when Democrats won this group by more than 20 points, they have done well, winning presidencies or making gains in midterms. The only exception was 2022, but arguably, the strong margin Democrats won with young voters that year, helped them stem what could have been a much larger Republican tide. That year, Democrats lost nine House seats, but gained a Senate seat.

    Democratic margin with voters 18-29, election result
    2024 +11, Trump wins presidency
    2022 +28, Republicans win House, Democrats gain Senate seat
    2020 +25, Biden wins presidency
    2018 +35, Democrats win House
    2016 +19, Trump wins presidency
    2014 +11, Republicans expand House majority, win Senate
    2012 +23, Obama wins re-election
    2010 +17, Republicans win House
    2008 +34, Obama wins presidency
    2006 +22, Democrats win House

    5. In Texas, the keys will be the difference between Gov. Greg Abbott (R) and Ken Paxton's (R) vote totals – and the Latino vote in South Texas

    Given past polling errors in Texas that underestimated the Republican vote, there's a healthy skepticism that Democrat James Talarico's margin of error lead in polling averages is enough to win.

    There was lots of enthusiasm in 2018 for Beto O'Rourke's (D) 2018 bid against an unpopular Republican senator in Ted Cruz, but Cruz still won, although by less than 3 percentage points. No Democrat has won statewide in Texas since 1994, and no Democrat has been elected to the Senate from Texas in 38 years.

    For it to actually happen in this state Trump won by 14 points in 2024, two groups are key – Republicans and Latinos. Ken Paxton (R) is unpopular. Republican Gov. Greg Abbot is also facing a tight race, but he's thought to be in better shape than Paxton. In 2018, Cruz won about 400,000 fewer votes than Abbott, but Cruz still won by more than 200,000 votes. So watch if the difference between Abbott and Paxton is more than 400,000 for Talarico.

    A person walks between rows of voting booths lined with red, white, and blue striped curtains.
    Voters cast their ballots in Anchorage, Alaska on Nov. 1, 2026.
    (
    Christian Moorman
    /
    AFP via Getty Images
    )

    The second part of Talarico's path to victory runs through South Texas. Statewide, O'Rourke won 64% of Latinos in 2018, and they were 26% of the electorate, according to exit polls. If Talarico is north of both of those, that's how he wins the seat. Talarico would need to improve on O'Rourke's totals in these Latino-heavy counties: Cameron 63%, Hidalgo 69%, Webb 71%, Nueces 51%. As a bonus, watch the fast-growing and heavily populated Dallas suburbs – Collin 47%, Denton 46%, Tarrant 51%.

    6. Party identification

    Because of the political realignment that's taken place in the Trump era, watch how people identify in exit polls.

    The percentage of those saying they were Democrats hit a low in 2024 at 31%. That trend is happening as the base of the Democratic Party has become more liberal and more disaffected with their own leadership. This year, though, Democrats were among the highest in enthusiasm levels, according to the latest NPR poll, but they are likely going to have to be far higher than 31% as a share of the electorate to do well.

    Democrats as a share of the electorate
    2024 31%
    2022 33%
    2020 37%
    2018 37%
    2016 37%
    2014 35%
    2012 38%
    2010 39%
    2008 39%

    That's quite possible given the opposition to Trump in this election is sky high – 53% of likely voters in the latest NPR poll said they strongly disapproved of the job he's doing. That is very likely to be a unifying force for the left in this election. As the saying goes, the enemy of my enemy is my friend.

    Along these lines, it's going to be important to watch races like the Michigan Senate race and the contest for Michigan's 7th Congressional District, both of which have very progressive Democratic candidates trying to win in purple places. Democratic unity – and the party's ideological future – is going to be a key storyline of the 2028 presidential primary and could define the American left for years to come.
    Copyright 2026 NPR