The Brief

One day before the Writers Guild of America is set to start talking with major studios about reopening negotiations, the union issued a fiery statement Thursday, telling members they’ve “been down this road before.”

The guild and the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers (AMPTP), which represents the major studios and streamers, are slated to begin talks Friday on restarting negotiations in order to end a strike that has now lasted for more than three months. Meanwhile, SAG-AFTRA members are about three weeks into a strike of their own.

“So far, the companies have wasted months on their same failed strategy,” the WGA said in its statement.

The guild pointed out that negotiations broke off multiple times during the WGA strike of 2007/08. “We won’t prejudge what’s to come. But playbooks die hard,” the guild added.

The writers union also challenged the AMPTP to come to the table on Friday “willing to make a fair deal and begin to repair the damage your strikes and your business practices have caused the workers in this industry.”

On Thursday evening, the AMPTP responded with their own statement calling the WGA Bargaining Committee’s rhetoric "unfortunate."

"Tomorrow’s discussion with the WGA is to determine whether we have a willing bargaining partner," the AMPTP said. "Our only playbook is getting people back to work."

So how long could the Hollywood strikes last?

Todd Holmes, a professor of entertainment industry management at Cal State Northridge says the current WGA strike has already lasted about as long as the last writers strike in 2007/08.

“It’s a little more complicated this time,” Holmes told LAist.

That’s because writers and performers are dealing with not only streaming residuals and other money issues, but also the existential threat of artificial intelligence, which wasn’t on the table in 2007.

While Holmes says the plans to “discuss negotiations” are a step in the right direction, “Sometimes... just because talks begin does not mean things are going to be figured out. Because whatever is discussed on Friday, maybe it’s just not acceptable.”

In 2007, it took about 100 days for a deal to be hammered out.

Holmes says he’s hearing from industry professionals that the strikes could go into October.

In 1988, the WGA members held a strike for about 150 days before eventually winning increases in pay.

At a meeting in July, the L.A. County Board of Supervisors agreed to send a letter to the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers, urging them to return to the negotiating table.

Gov. Gavin Newsom’s office said he had been in touch with both sides of the Hollywood strikes in order to try and help broker a deal.

Timeline: SAG-AFTRA strike

Some things to note: This is the first SAG strike since 1980. The 1960 strike, which took place while the WGA was also striking, was led by Ronald Reagan, then the president of SAG. Current events:

• May 17: Union leaders ask for and receive a strike authorization vote ahead of contract talks.
• June 7: SAG-AFTRA begins negotiations with the AMPTP; contract due to end June 30.
• June 30: Both sides agree to extend talks through July 12.
• July 12: Federal negotiator is brought in
• July 13: The national board of SAG-AFTRA authorizes its 160,000 members to go on strike.
• July 14: Picketing begins at 9 a.m. at major studios and streamer HQ’s across the city.

Timeline: WGA strike

Some things to note: It is the first WGA strike in 15 years. The last work stoppage began in November 2007 and lasted 100 days. Current events:

• April 18: 98% of WGA members vote to go on strike if the contract talks fail.
• May 1: WGA contract expires with no agreement between sides.
• May 2: WGA strike begins

The issue: Actors

Minimum earnings: SAG is asking for an 11% general wage increase to reflect inflation. The AMPTP is countering with 5%.

Share of revenue: Actors feel they haven’t received their fair share of revenue from hit streaming shows.

• Traditionally compensation has been linked to ratings. Streamers like Netflix, however, don’t release how many people watch their shows, so it’s difficult to know which ones are major hits. SAG-AFTRA proposed bringing in a third-party company to measure ratings and devise residuals. The AMPTP rejected this. 
• Executives at studios and streamers maintain they’re still recovering from pandemic losses and have spent billions of dollars creating and buying content for new streaming platforms, some of which are far from profitable.
• While some streamers are thriving (Netflix recently reported $1.71 billion of quarterly operating income), The Walt Disney Co. has announced the firing of 7000 employees to save money, having lost close to $10 billion to date on its streaming platforms. Warner Bros. Discovery is making deep cuts because of its $50 billion in debt. 

Artificial intelligence: There is deep concern about how artificial intelligence will be used, with particular anxiety about the use of a performer’s image and likeness. The union wants to prevent studios from training AI programs on actors’ work without permission, and for actors to consent and be paid if AI is used to replicate them. The AMPTP offered what it called a groundbreaking proposal that it said “protects performers’ digital likenesses." The union rejected this.

Self-taped auditions: Since the pandemic, self-produced audition tapes have become the norm — meaning actors light and film themselves. It’s labor intensive, with no pay, and widens an already competitive pool of performers. The union says it understands self-taped auditions can be useful, but wants to put restrictions around them.

• Read SAG-AFTRA’s summary of negotiation points 
• And what the AMPTP has to say about the negotiations

The issues: Writers

Maintaining a liveable wage: The WGA says that companies’ business practices have “slashed our compensation and residuals and underminedour working conditions”, and that the current contract terms failed to anticipate the explosive growth of streaming.

• It says that most of its nearly 12,000 members are making less than they once did, and that after factoring for inflation, average WGA pay has actually dropped 14% over the last five years. 
• Meanwhile the AMPTP says it’s offering the highest first-year general wage increase in more than 25 years, while also offering to create "an entirely new category of rates that will establish a new and higher floor for mid-level writers’ compensation”.

"Gig economy": The union says that shorter schedules and small writers room means writers have to cobble together jobs, similar to the gig economy. The AMPTP says screenwriting has almost nothing in common with standard "gig" jobs. Writers often have a guarantee of specific weeks or episodes, and writing jobs come with benefits such as employer-paid health care and pension plan contributions.

Staffing and duration of employment: The union wants a minimum number of weeks on a project, and a certain number of writers. The AMPTP sees this essentially as a hiring quota that's "incompatible with the creative nature of our industry", and says it's a one-size-fits-all solution to shows that are each unique.

Artificial intelligence: Writers want to make sure that AI isn’t used to replace their creative output. Meanwhile the AMPTP says "AI raises hard, important creative and legal questions for everyone. For example, writers want to be able to use this technology as part of their creative process, without changing how credits are determined, which is complicated given AI material can't be copyrighted. So it's something that requires a lot more discussion, which we've committed to doing."

• Read the full WGA statement
• Hollywood producers released a statement on May 4 that addressed specific points of the WGA's concerns. 

Why it matters

What you'll be watching:

• Ahead of the WGA contract’s expiration, studios and streamers stockpiled scripts so they would have content to produce if there were a strike. But now the actors are on strike, even that content cannot be filmed, and some productions have been cancelled mid-shoot. Expect game shows, talk shows, docu-series and reality shows in the fall (which are covered under different contracts).

• Companies like Netflix release series in multiple languages, however, so their production schedules often run many months ahead of traditional TV networks, which means they tend to have a bigger shelf of completed shows.

• Movies have a fairly long lead time, so almost all of the movies due to come out through the end of the year have already finished filming. Movies that were slated to begin production soon and come out next year or later are being pushed back, like Gladiator 2 and Deadpool 3.

The local economy:

For the 2007 - 2008 writers strike, the Milken Institute estimated the resulting economic losses were $2.1 billion, along with a net loss of 37,700 jobs directly and indirectly tied to the entertainment industry.

Those 2007-2008 losses worked out to about $20 million a day, or close to $30 million in today’s dollars. But the number of scripted series and streaming movies has grown exponentially since then.

The financial and job loss estimate includes not only lost pay for screenwriters, but also for people who work in production, and businesses that either cater to or depend on production: everything from costume and prop rental companies to caterers and equipment rental outfits.

Learn more

• TV And Movie Writers Strike Over 'Gig Economy' Conditions. What’s At Stake In The WGA Walkout
• From Gas Stations to Restaurants: How The WGA Strike Will Hit The LA Economy
• This Hollywood Writers Strike Could Have Massive Economic Impact. An Economist Explains What We Can Learn From 2007
• How The WGA Strike Of 2007 Strike Brought Donald Trump To Power
• A History Of Strikes: How The WGA Has Played Catch-Up As Emerging Technologies Made Others Richer

Your questions or ideas

The Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals heard arguments in Pasadena Tuesday over whether the federal government has the right to access sensitive data about California’s 23 million voters. The court also heard a nearly identical case involving Oregon.

California is among 30 states and the District of Columbia sued by the Trump administration in an effort to get access to unredacted state voter registration rolls. The administration says it wants to make sure only citizens are voting and that states are otherwise properly maintaining their rolls, for example, by removing people who have died.

Why won’t California hand over the data?

California has offered access to its publicly available voter file, which does not include information like driver’s license and social security numbers. State election and privacy laws prohibit state officials from sharing that more sensitive data, and lawyers for California argue that federal laws do not allow the U.S. Department of Justice unfettered access to the state’s voter files.

Why does the federal government want voter rolls?

Trump administration officials have given different reasons for requesting the data over the past year. But earlier this month, a memo from the Justice Department’s Office of Legal Counsel wants to run voter rolls through the federal government’s SAVE system to check the immigration status of voters. NPR and other news outlets have reported on major flaws in the system, including improperly flagging eligible voters as non-citizens.

What happens to flagged names?

It differs in each state. Some states give flagged voters time to prove their eligibility; others suspend or cancel registration immediately. Voting rights groups worry that a large number of voters may be disenfranchised right before the midterm election.

The political backdrop

The debate has largely split along party lines, although not entirely — some Republican-led states are resisting the federal government’s demands for sensitive voter data. At least 15 states have agreed to provide their full registration lists, most of them Republican-led, according to the Brennan Center for Justice, which is tracking the issue.

What’s next

There's no specific timeline for a ruling from the Ninth Circuit. A separate appeals court is considering the Trump administration’s demand for Michigan voter data. Depending on the outcome of that and the California and Oregon cases, observers say the issue could be headed to the Supreme Court.

Jaz Roche, also known to nearly 11,000 Tiktok followers as @spo0kymom, hawks facial cleansing bars, baby wagons and AI tools in short social media videos.

On a website where clients can pay her to post videos about their products, she says she’s based in Pennsylvania. Yet the content creator has taken an interest in the California governor’s race lately.

Tiktok and Instagram accounts linked to Roche have posted 34 times in the past 10 days to boost the campaign of billionaire Tom Steyer or to criticize his main Democratic opponent, Xavier Becerra.

“Hear me out, I have something to admit,” she says in the first video, posted May 8, on an account where she describes herself as a “so-cal girlypop.” “I did not expect the most progressive governor candidate to be a billionaire. But look at the policies, you guys.”

What she didn’t say was that Steyer’s campaign is paying her to say it.

Steyer, who has poured nearly $200 million into the most expensive primary campaign in state history, is under scrutiny for using paid social media influencers to post favorable things about him.

Is that legal?

Gov. Gavin Newsom three years ago signed a law meant to bring transparency to the increasingly intertwined world of politics and content creators, enacting a law requiring influencers to be upfront in their posts about being paid by a political campaign. In one of the first tests of the law, regulators have opened an investigation into one of the Steyer influencer videos.

But experts and transparency advocates aren’t optimistic: The law was intentionally designed with no real penalties, and the agency responsible for enforcing it sometimes takes years to resolve investigations.

“This is where the ‘Wild West’ analogy becomes useful,” said Dan Schnur, a political science professor and former chair of the state’s Fair Political Practices Commission.

‘Inundate the internet’

Campaign finance filings from January through April 18 show Steyer has paid over $123,400 to at least eight influencers. The New York Times reported that includes $100,000 to Texas-based Latino mega-influencer Carlos Eduardo Espina, whose 14.3 million Tiktok followers are a coveted target for Democrats and who has endorsed Steyer.

The campaign is also paying over $870,000 to a digital media agency, Group Project Digital, that solicits creators to post daily videos about Steyer. The listing initially offered $10 per video; it was amended last week to offer $1,000 a month and now includes a sentence telling creators they need to disclose the payments.

The state investigation covers just one of the influencer videos, in which content creator Isaiah Washington (known as @zaydante) did not disclose that Steyer’s campaign paid him $10,000 for a now-deleted video. It was sparked by a complaint from a pair of political social media influencers who post frequently in support of Becerra. On Tuesday, they filed another complaint alleging numerous additional paid, undisclosed posts, including from accounts in other countries.

“What he’s done is inundate the Internet in every way, shape and form to try and create an echo chamber,” said Beatrice Gomberg, one of the complainants.

Among the accounts they’ve recently highlighted: @foosgonewild, which has posted memes, content about Southern California street culture and, on May 5, an interview with Steyer talking about his opposition to ICE. The account has 3.3 million followers on Instagram and 1 million on Tiktok.

The Tiktok video has no disclosures. On Instagram, at the bottom of the video description, the account notes it’s a partner with California-based social video firm Flighthouse. Neither the content creator nor Flighthouse responded to requests for comment. The Steyer campaign would not disclose how much it paid the firm.

Steyer has defended soliciting influencers, saying they deserve to be paid for their work.

Spokesperson Kevin Liao called Gomberg’s first complaint “baseless” and said the campaign specified in its contracts with all third-party content firms that they needed to include payment disclosures, satisfying the campaign’s legal obligations under the state transparency law. The campaign doesn’t review posts in advance, he said.

Asked why the campaign had paid some creators who don’t live in California, he said, “I don’t see why that’s an issue.”

“Content creators, wherever they’re based, have followers in California,” he said.

‘Politics is all content now’

The blowback reveals the rising power and profitability of content creators in politics. One in five Americans regularly gets news on TikTok, rising to more than two in five for those under age 30. With traditional television hemorrhaging viewership and Americans hooked on the infinite scroll, campaigns are increasingly chasing posts.

They regularly hold events to court paid and unpaid influencers and sit for video interviews, aided by a new crop of talent agencies and digital media firms that represent influencers and solicit their content.

The relationship has contributed to at least one politician’s downfall: After attending a creator meeting for then-gubernatorial hopeful Eric Swalwell last fall, political influencer Arielle Fodor (aka @mrs.frazzled) received a flurry of messages warning her to stay away from him. It prompted her to post videos discussing rumors of his sexual misconduct, she has said. He quit the race after reporters covered several allegations of harassment and assault.

“Politics is all content now,” said Alex Stack, a Democratic consultant and former communications staffer for Gov. Gavin Newsom. “Candidates need to be content creators and they need a little online army behind them to get traction.”

Roche’s videos about Steyer — some featuring her talking, some simply showing text praising Steyer over mundane videos of her life — have gotten no more than 1,100 views each. They’re posted on accounts with fewer than two dozen followers, a far cry from the millions of Californians Steyer’s TV ad spending blitz is reaching.

But they provide something critical for the billionaire candidate who’s funding his own campaign: the impression of grassroots support.

In a briefing memo for creators obtained by CalMatters, the campaign’s digital firm tells Tiktokers and Instagrammers that the “title of billionaire is his biggest sticking point,” and that the campaign wants to reach California women, Latinos and African Americans. The Sacramento Bee first reported on the memo.

Organic content?

Advertisers covet creators regardless of audience size for their ability to portray a product endorsement as an organic recommendation from a friend. Candidates courting voters are no different.

For example, an organization representing California lawyers is paying influencers to promote a ballot measure targeting Uber's responsibility for sexual assaults by its drivers. Matt Mahan’s campaign for governor has also paid influencers and meme accounts for content boosting him. Instagram users see disclosures on those videos’ descriptions.

In the Los Angeles mayor’s race, Karen Bass’ challenger Spencer Pratt is offering money on social media gig platforms to make videos featuring viral-friendly soundbites of him.

Serabeth Mullaney, a part-time San Francisco content creator promoting cat treats and AI tools, turned down an offer to make videos boosting Steyer’s campaign because of her opposition to billionaires in politics. The 29-year-old said she gets most of her news from social media so she’s concerned about the seep of paid political ads into influencer content.

“Anyone desperate to make that (money), they’re going to do the campaign,” she said. “Whether or not they believe in Tom Steyer, they’re going to post those videos.”

The concern mirrors the state Fair Political Practices Commission’s rationale for proposing the 2024 transparency law. Before that, campaigns only needed to disclose payment for ads they posted directly; paid content on third-party platforms was largely unregulated.

But the agency primarily relies on complaints to launch investigations, and violations of the law come with few consequences — no fines or criminal charges for creators or campaigns. The only thing the agency can do is ask a court to force an influencer to disclose payments, but experts say that's an expensive and time-consuming effort for a fleeting video.

Sen. Tom Umberg, a Santa Ana Democrat who authored the law, said paid influencers in politics are more prevalent than three years ago and lawmakers should make the requirements more enforceable.

“Transparency is like whack-a-mole,” Umberg said. “Every year there’s a new modality, and so there’s a new way to get around stuff.”

Becerra's online army

Now the gubernatorial candidates and their supporters are engaged in a mass scrutiny of all the posts boosting each others’ campaigns.

Critics have also questioned the relationship between Becerra and numerous creators who have boosted his campaign since Swalwell dropped out. The Becerra campaign has insisted it has never paid any content creator for a post.

Democratic gubernatorial candidate Xavier Becerra on April 1, 2026.

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Larry Valenzuela

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CalMatters

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The campaign seeks relationships with creators who are willing to post for free as a blend of campaign volunteer and reporter, said digital strategist Alf Lamont.

“Paid influencer campaigns don’t carry the kind of punch that organizing does,” Lamont said. “We want to make sure we’re getting folks who truly believe in it so we don’t face the second-guesses and the ‘paid by’ and the feeling you’re looking at something that’s insincere.”

Jordan “Jay” Gonzalez’s posts included lifestyle content, Latino advocacy and even salmon DNA facials before he started creating pro-Becerra videos on multiple platforms in March, a month before the campaign hired him as a full-time social media strategist. Gonzalez has recently been amending his posts with disclosures that he is paid by the campaign, “out of extreme caution so as not to seem disingenuous to my audience.”

Opponents point out Gonzalez and another creator who has posted numerous times in Becerra’s favor, Maggie Reed or @mermaidmamamaggie, have previously charged for content. Antonio Villaraigosa’s campaign solicited unpaid videos from both of them in the spring, and received quotes from each influencer’s agent of $7,000 to $16,500, emails shared with CalMatters show. The Villaraigosa campaign confirmed the exchanges.

On Tuesday, Steyer’s campaign filed a complaint alleging both influencers’ videos were paid for by Becerra’s campaign with no disclosure.

Becerra’s campaign has not reported any payments to Reed in campaign finance filings, and Lamont denied paying either creator for content. Gonzalez, in an email, said that he had previously declined a paid offer from the Villaraigosa campaign. Reed did not respond to a request for comment.

‘A SoCal girl’

Gomberg and Kaitlyn Hennessy, friends who met at a Becerra rally, have both posted frequently in favor of his campaign — for free, they say.

The pair began sleuthing online in early May, eventually filing a complaint with the Fair Political Practices Commission last week alleging Steyer’s campaign hired Roche, Washington and several other content creators to post on his behalf without disclosing it.

Posing as another, unnamed campaign, they emailed creators offering paid political content work to prompt them to talk about posting for Steyer’s campaign.

One account, @isabel.speakss, purported to belong to a “so cal girl sharing her thoughts” named Isabel Mendoza and has exclusively posted about Steyer since May 9. The woman in the videos appears identical to Jade Johnson, a Florida-based influencer.

Another account, @jess.votes, is linked to another Florida content creator.

Since the complaint was filed, Roche and the other creators have included disclaimers in their posts. None of them responded to inquiries from CalMatters asking if they knew about the campaign disclosure law. After a CalMatters reporter asked Johnson whether she was asked to pose as a California voter, the @isabel.speakss account on Monday afternoon removed the “so cal” description from its profile.

None of those creators are listed in Steyer’s latest campaign finance filings as subcontractors of any digital strategy firm. Steyer spokesperson Liao said they will appear in the next filing.

CalMatters reached out to all the creators listed in the filings; none agreed to an interview. They include lifestyle influencers, comedians and musicians whom Steyer paid between $1,500 and $10,000, mostly through another firm, to post video interviews with Steyer or talk about his platform. One of them labeled her video a “paid partnership;” others did not disclose campaign payments or have since deleted their videos.

This article was originally published on CalMatters and was republished under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives license.

This story first appeared on The LA Local.

A day after gunmen killed three people outside a mosque in San Diego, Muslim leaders in Los Angeles said the attack was fueled by a growing climate of Islamophobia in America.

Local officials pledged increased security around places of worship as the investigation continues into the mass shooting.

The shooters, ages 17 and 18, opened fire outside the Islamic Center of San Diego on Monday morning in what authorities are investigating as a hate crime. Federal investigators said the two met online and shared writings expressing hatred toward Muslims, Jews and other minority groups. Authorities also recovered anti-Islamic writings and messages carved into their weapons, according to the Los Angeles Times.

Both gunmen were later found dead of apparent self-inflicted gunshot wounds.

In Los Angeles, Muslim community leaders on Tuesday condemned what they described as the normalization of anti-Muslim rhetoric nationwide.

Omar Ricci, spokesperson for the Islamic Center of Southern California, said the attack did not happen in isolation.

“Even the perpetrators of the crime were victims,” he said, “of what we call and is well-known to us in the Muslim community, the industry of Islamophobia. 
An industry that deliberately creates fear and division.”

“This is not a mysterious situation,” Ricci said. “The Islamophobic industry that seeks to create fear of Muslims and tell the rest of America that Islam and Muslims are incompatible with the society in which we live — it has grown in the past year.”

Other Muslim leaders said the shooting reflects a broader national climate in which Muslims and other minority groups are increasingly portrayed as threats.

Khalid Hudson of the Council on American-Islamic Relations in L.A. said the attack should not be viewed as an isolated act carried out by two young men.

“We have to address the root cause: publicly acceptable anti-Islam and anti-Muslim rhetoric,” he said at a Tuesday press conference at the Islamic Center of Southern California in Koreatown,

Local officials said law enforcement agencies across Los Angeles County have increased patrols around mosques and other places of worship following the shooting.

Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass called the attack “grossly unacceptable” and noted that it came as Muslims enter a sacred period of prayer and reflection during the month of Dhul Hijjah.

“I’ve been in close coordination with LAPD to enhance security specifically around mosques,” Bass said. “And across Los Angeles, we will do everything to keep you safe.”

Los Angeles County Sheriff Robert Luna urged residents to report warning signs of extremist violence before attacks occur.

“If you hear something, if you see something, and in this day and age, if you read something, you have to share it with us,” Luna said. “This could literally save dozens of people’s lives.”

San Diego Police Chief Scott Wahl said the shooting could have been much worse. The Islamic Center includes both a mosque and a school for students ages 5 and up, according to the Associated Press. 

Authorities commended the actions of Amin Abdullah, a security guard who defended the center before he was fatally shot during a shootout with the gunmen. Abdullah also radioed staff members to place the center on lockdown, according to officials.

Authorities identified the other two victims as Nader Awad and Mansour Kaziha, who were shot outside the mosque.

Los Angeles County Dist. Atty. Nathan Hochman praised Abdullah’s bravery.

“We need to speak the name of Amin Abdullah, while never speaking the names of his killers,” Hochman said.

“We cannot wait until the bullets are fired to take hatred seriously,” he added. “I want every resident in Los Angeles County to know that this office, in connection with this community and law enforcement, will continue to aggressively prosecute hate crimes wherever and whenever they occur.”

Salam Al-Marayati, president of the Muslim Public Affairs Council, also criticized recent federal policies placing political conditions on security grants for mosques. The Department of Homeland Security pulled federal funding from places of worship “with alleged affiliations to terrorist activities” according to reporting from Fox News.

“I just want to give one message to those that are trying to marginalize, deport, stigmatize, expel Muslims from America,” Al-Marayati said at Tuesday’s news conference. “America is our home. We are not going anywhere.”

President Donald Trump got more wins in Republican primaries on Tuesday, most notably in Kentucky.

There, Rep. Thomas Massie lost to a Trump-backed candidate after the president and his allies blitzed Massie with tens of millions in ads.

In fact, this was the most expensive House primary in history with $33 million total spent on TV ads and a lot of it aimed at Massie, according to NPR ad-tracking partner AdImpact.

While Trump continues to rack up victories on his vengeance tour, general election opponents are waiting in swing districts and swing states, and Trump is a double-edged sword — popular with the base but unpopular with more than half the country.

Can front-line Republican candidates navigate these choppy waters? And what comes next?

Here are four takeaways from Tuesday night's elections:

1. Trump flexes muscle (again) in Republican primaries 

Trump made it clear again that he's the alpha dog in Republican Party politics.

Massie became the latest, high-profile political casualty Tuesday night. Trump said all he needed was a "warm body" to pluck the thorn-in-Trump's-side that Massie had become.

And in Ed Gallrein, who served in the Navy as a SEAL officer, Trump said he got that warm body — with "a big, beautiful brain." In the end, it wasn't a very close race, a 10-point margin.

Following Republican Sen. Bill Cassidy's primary loss in Louisiana on Saturday, this week has been a punctuation mark on Trump's strength with the party. In addition to Massie and Cassidy losing, another Trump foe, Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, also did not advance to a runoff for Georgia governor Tuesday night.

Raffensperger was at the center of the 2020 presidential election controversy in the state when Trump pressured him to overturn the election results there that saw Democrat Joe Biden narrowly win the state. Raffensperger refused to go along and now joins a list of Republicans whose political careers were shortened because GOP voters punished them after their opposition to Trump.

2. Primaries aren't general elections, though. Georgia, in particular, is a good reminder of that

The Senate primaries in Georgia and Alabama were also all about candidates trying to out-MAGA each other. They hugged Trump as closely as possible to get through those contests.

Trump certainly showed his strength in these Republican primaries, but primaries aren't general elections, and Alabama and Georgia, while neighbors, have become very different states. They both have conservative primary electorates, but Alabama is a much more conservative general election state. Georgia is much more purple and has two Democratic senators. One of them, Jon Ossoff, is a top GOP target this fall.

It's worth remembering that, as the Republican primary heads to a runoff between the top two vote-getters on June 16, Trump may be popular with rank-and-file conservative voters, but he's equally, if not more, unpopular with swing voters, according to polls, focus groups and reports. His approval ratings are among the lowest of either of his terms as president, especially on the economy — the top issue for voters. This has been the Trump quandary for Republicans for as long as he's been the leader of the party. Republicans need him to turn out the base, but he's toxic with independents and now with lots of crossover voting groups, who cast ballots for him in 2024, like Latinos, according to polls.

In a general election in a place like Georgia, Republicans have to be careful not to look too extreme, if they want to have a chance of unseating Ossoff in November.

3. Pay attention to the economic messaging by GOP candidates in swing districts

One way to do that is to focus on kitchen-table issues. The economy and prices in particular continue to be voters' top concerns. Let's zoom in on a place where that economic swing-district messaging is going to be tested, one that always seems to be full of bellwethers — Pennsylvania.

There are three congressional races here, in fact, that the Cook Political Report rates as toss-ups. That includes the 7th Congressional District in the Lehigh Valley. It features freshman Republican Rep. Ryan Mackenzie, who will now face off against Democrat Bob Brooks, the state firefighters union president.

Mackenzie's focus has been on the economy — and how he believes he's helped working-class voters. In an ad with about $225,000 behind it, according to AdImpact, Mackenzie stresses that he "voted for working family tax cuts that mean higher wages and lower taxes for working families, no tax on tips and no tax on overtime." He mentions wanting to expand health savings accounts, as well, and keeps a hard line on immigration.

Is that a winning message? It will be tested, as Republicans in these kinds of districts are trudging uphill right now given the national political environment and as Democrats look to flip this district Trump won by 3 points in 2024 and narrowly lost four years earlier. Trump's economic approval ratings are in the 30s, and people are blaming him for higher prices, according to the polls.

Democrats, meanwhile, are promoting Brooks as "one of us" — "a firefighter, snowplow driver, and union leader" who will "stand up to corporate greed and a corrupt political system." It's a left-wing, working-class populist message that will also be tested — as will Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro's political strength in this key presidential state, as he eyes a potential run for higher office in 2028.

4. Trump looks to keep riding high in the saddle — in Texas

Trump looks to finish off a May sweep in the Lone Star State. On Tuesday, Trump made the surprise move of endorsing Ken Paxton, the controversial state attorney general, in the Republican primary runoff against Republican Sen. John Cornyn. Trump had pledged to endorse after Cornyn failed to reach the 50%-plus threshold to win the primary outright.

The smart money was on Trump to endorse Cornyn to avoid a messy, drawn-out primary — and to safely keep this Senate seat in Republican hands. Operatives close to Trump were working for Cornyn, and that seemed to be the way things were headed. But then Paxton came out strongly in support of the SAVE America Act, the voting law that Trump has championed that would require not just voter ID, but birth certificates or passports to register to vote.

That seemed to put a pause on Trump's endorsement of anyone — until Tuesday when Trump flipped the script and went with the uber-MAGA Paxton. Make no mistake: this puts Texas on the map. Texas was seen as a likely much easier win for Republicans in November with Cornyn as the GOP nominee than if it's Paxton.

Paxton will still likely be the slight favorite over the Democratic nominee, state Rep. James Talarico. This is Texas, after all, and no Democrat has won statewide since 1994. But Republicans now are going to have to back up the money truck to try to save this seat — and it will be super expensive. Look for Trump's political action committee, MAGA Inc., with its deep war chest and now Trump's endorsement, to play heavily to try to keep this seat red.
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