Another Republican Presidential debate rolls around tomorrow. CNN will air the event live from Las Vegas -- a fitting backdrop for a race that's been far from predictable.
While the Democrats are focused on two key candidates, there's a broad range of Republican contenders. At the top, three candidates who have branded themselves as "outsiders." Each has enthusiastic supporters, but none of the three can be said to have broad appeal. And that has some in the Grand Old Party worried.
Traditionally, party insiders have played a key role in determining who ends up as the nominee. They're part of a process known as the "invisible primary." But this election season has been an outlier; party elites have remained relatively silent thus far.
John Sides is a professor of political science at George Washington University. He explained the role of the little-known assemblage.
“It’s invisible -- for the most part -- because it reflects conversations and interactions that we can’t see,” Sides says. “At times you can see more visible manifestations of it in the endorsements that candidates get from party leaders, but it also involves lots of non-elected people. People who may be wealthy donors, people who may lead important interest groups.”
For example, he says, Democratic candidates often seek favor from labor groups. Republican candidates tend to benefit from evangelical endorsements. Backing from the right powers can greatly improve a candidate’s chances of receiving enough votes to win their party's nomination during the primary elections.
As far as campaigns go, Sides says support for Democrat Hillary Clinton has been “textbook.” Not so on the Republican side, however. Why have relatively few politicians, donors and interest groups publically backed one GOP candidate? Sides says it’s possible that party elites may doubt that leading candidates Donald Trump, Ted Cruz and Ben Carson have enough appeal to actually win a general election.
“Each of these candidates has a couple of things in common that concerns some people within the Republican Party,” Sides says. “I think Republicans are hearing a lot of commentaries and seeing a lot of data that suggests there may be some challenges for the Republican Party in a national, presidential electorate as the country becomes less white, less-Christian over time.”
Sides says some people in the party may be waiting for a candidate that can speak to newer constituencies to stand out. Marco Rubio, for example.
Sides says that, in the past, when an undesirable candidate has taken the lead, parties resort to a series of tactics aimed at slowing their momentum.