In race for LA mayor, second place counts. Can Raman overtake Pratt to face Bass in November?

The race is on for second place in the Los Angeles mayor's contest.

Early trends show L.A. City Councilmember Nithya Raman making slight gains on reality TV personality Spencer Pratt in the race to face incumbent Karen Bass in November.

The Associated Press has already declared Bass as having secured one spot in the runoff.

Votes are still being counted, and the L.A. County Registrar of Voters will receive ballots postmarked by Election Day up until seven days later. Hundreds of thousands of votes remain to be counted, according to the registrar.

By Tuesday night, Pratt had collected enough votes to put him squarely in the second spot, with a substantial lead over Raman.

But by late Wednesday, Raman had gone from just over 20% of the vote on election night to a little over 22% in the latest tally. Pratt gained about a tenth of a percentage point to about 30%.

“I think she has a shot at catching Pratt but I think it's a long shot,” said Zev Yaroslavsky, director of the Los Angeles Initiative at the UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs. “It requires her to get a large percentage of the votes that remain to be counted.”

Yaroslavsky noted progressives tended to vote late and those votes have yet to be counted. Raman is a member of the Democratic Socialists of America and can be expected to pick up a lot of those votes.

“The later votes tend to be more Democratic and more progressive and that inures to her benefit,” Yaroslavsky said.

The problem for Raman is that two days ago she was about 40,000 votes behind Pratt and last night was about 38,000 votes behind Pratt, he said.

Raman needs to gain much more than 2,000 votes a day to eclipse the 38,000 vote deficit, according to Yaroslavsky.

“She really has to get the preponderance of the votes that will be coming in in the next week or so,” he said.

Paul Mitchell, a Democratic strategist whose company tracks ballot return data, said Republicans were reflected heavily in the early returns but as the votes continue more Democrats will be represented.

However, it may not be enough to give Raman the boost she needs. He noted that Pratt is losing votes in every vote update, but not all of those votes are going to Raman. They’re split between her and Bass.

“While [Pratt] will drop every release, I'm not sure that Raman will increase fast enough to meet and surpass him,” Mitchell said.

He explained a theory that many Bass and Raman voters held onto their ballots ahead of Election Day and that many of them were likely "establishment voters," meaning they leaned toward the incumbent.

“ So I think that in the end, we might find that [Pratt] hangs on, and the reason why he hung on is because the people who were voting at the end, the Democrats, were voting more for Karen Bass,” Mitchell said.

The Registrar of Voters is expected to release an update on the vote count Thursday evening.