Republicans Are Now Just One Short Of A House Majority. Here's Where Things Stand

Votes are still being scrutinized and tallied, as Republicans sit now just one House seat shy of a majority.

It's very possible the House will be called for Republicans sometime Tuesday night with 12 races yet to be decided.

It very well could happen right before or during former President Trump's speech Tuesday night. He's widely expected to announce another run for president, though, as we know, plans with the former president are rarely straightforward and often change.

As it stands:

• Republicans are up to 217 to 206 with 12 uncalled races.
• If current leads hold, Republicans would wind up with a 221-214 majority.

Most of the remaining vote is in California, where tabulations continue to trickle in slowly. Nine of the undecided races are in California. (There are two seats where two Democrats are competing against each other, because of California's top-two primary system.)

One is in Colorado, and the other two are elections that are headed to ranked-choice retabulations in Maine and Alaska. Results in Maine are expected Wednesday. Alaska will conduct its retabulation Nov. 23.

What's happening in California has happened in every recent election. The state takes longer to count its mail votes, and this is commonplace.

That means Republicans would only be able to lose three votes to pass legislation out of the House starting in January. That could be a major headache for Rep. Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif. — or whomever becomes the Republican speaker.

It's also still possible that that number shrinks or expands slightly, depending on what happens — particularly in California's 22nd and 27th districts, which Democrats are targeting but are behind, and in the 47th Congressional District, where Democrat Katie Porter's lead has shrunk to less than 2 points.

Here's where things stand, by the numbers (as of Tuesday, 5:45 p.m. ET):

• Current net pickups: R+8. They have flipped 16 competitive seats to Democrats' 8, according to the Associated Press, which makes calls for NPR. (Republicans needed a net gain of 5 pickups to take control this cycle.) Neither party is leading in any other potential pickups.
• Estimated Republican pick up: 7 to 9 seats. That would give Republicans just a 2- to 4-seat majority.

What's leftHere's the list of uncalled races and who leads in them (as of 5:45 p.m. ET):

1. CA-3 R+5 (53% in)
2. CA-6 D+12 (52 in)
3. CA-9 D+12 (47 in)
4. CA-13 D+761 votes (78 in)
5. CA-21 D+9 (76 in)
6. CA-22 R+5 (54 in)
7. CA-27 R+9 (65 in)
8. CA-47 D+1 (80 in)
9. CA-49 D+5 (86 in)
10. CO-3 R+1,122 votes (99 in)
11. AK-1 D+20 RCV
12. ME-2 D+3 RCV

Sending a messageDemocrats picked up a seat this week in the 3rd Congressional District in Washington state, a district that had been held by a Republican, Jamie Herrera Beutler. But she voted for former President Trump's impeachment and was ousted by the right in the primary.

There's an irony in the fact that she was ousted because she voted to impeach Trump and, now, a Democrat has taken over that seat. It's indicative of the broader message in this election.

• Of the three dozen races rated as toss up by the Cook Political Report, Trump endorsed five — and all lost.

Note: Please keep in mind that these numbers are fluid and will change as votes continue to roll in. See the latest results here.

The Senate: Democrats 48, Independents 2, Republicans 49, Uncalled 2(The two independents caucus with the Democrats.)

With their wins the last two days in Arizona and Nevada, as well as their flip of the Pennsylvania seat, Democrats will retain the Senate.

It's a remarkable accomplishment for Democrats with a president whose approval rating has been below 50% for more than a year.

But base energy over the issue of abortion and a slew of Trump-backed candidates, who failed in purple states, proved to thwart a potential Republican Senate takeover.

What's left

Alaska

This has been added to the Republican total even though the race is not settled yet, because both leading candidates are Republicans, so this will stay in GOP hands. The question is at this point: which Republican. Incumbent Lisa Murkowski (R) trails Kelly Tshibaka (R) by less than 2 percentage points, or just under 3,000 votes, with 80% in. If neither candidate gets above 50%, this goes to a ranked-choice re-tabulation Nov. 23. Murkowski would likely be favored to win that.

Georgia

Incumbent Raphael Warnock (D) and Republican challenger Herschel Walker (R) are headed to a runoff because neither surpassed 50% on the ballot. Warnock missed the threshold by just under 23,000 votes.

What happened since Friday

Nevada: Democratic incumbent Catherine Cortez Masto took the lead after a batch of votes Saturday night were reported in Clark County. Shortly thereafter, she was declared the winner, clinching Senate control for Democrats. There are still votes to count in Nevada, which we will monitor, including 15,000 provisional votes from Clark County, which could also help Cortez Masto extend her lead.

Arizona: Democratic incumbent Mark Kelly's lead expanded by about 8,000 votes with the Friday night batch of about 80,000 votes out of Maricopa County. The race was called in his favor quickly after that, though vote counting continues there, and there is a closely watched governor's race, where Democrat Katie Hobbs currently leads Trump-backed Kari Lake, who has made unfounded allegations of fraud in the election.